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Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by PatsFanInVa, Apr 27, 2006.

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  1. PatsFanInVa

    PatsFanInVa PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    According to Fanball.Com, Da Bears want to trade down from pick #26; evidently, they're dissatisfied with their total of 6 picks in this year's draft. This calls for

    PFnV's Wild ***** Speculation Quiz

    This is an open pick value chart Quiz. Please use a sharp Number 2 Pencil on your screen. Do not begin this quiz until everybody else does.

    Question 1
    If the Pats get hold of #26, and add it to #21, they could get A.J. Hawk if he slips to #___, by throwing in pick #____.

    Question 2
    The Pats have to give Da Bears picks #s ___________________ to get ahold of #26.

    Question 3
    True or false: The answer to Question 1 and the answer to Question 2 can coexist in the same universe

    Question 4
    If the Pats get ahold of #26, they could deal it to ________ for that team's first round pick this year, plus ________ next year.

    Question 5
    True or False: The Pats might acquire 21, add it to 26, trade it to move one spot ahead of the Broncos, and then swing a deal 20 minutes before picking, to get a lower first round this year, a probably higher first round next year, and the satisfaction of watching the veins in Shanahan's temples pop.

    Question 6
    Essay
    "No no, here's what they're going to do:"

    Your answers will be graded on thoughtfulness, creativity, and penmanship. Good luck to you all.

    PFnV
     
  2. BruschiOnTap

    BruschiOnTap On the Game Day Roster

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    I think my brain just exploded!
     
  3. maverick4

    maverick4 Banned

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    re

    Hehe, nice. I'll reply later on this (busy now), but for people who want to play around with the numbers, here they are to save you some time.

    Pick #26 is worth 700 points.
    Pats overall picks, with points in parenthesis: 21 (800), 52 (380), 75 (215), 86 (160), 106 (82), 118 (58), 136 (38), 191 (15), 205 (9.4), 206 (9), 229 (1).
     
  4. Patsfanin Philly

    Patsfanin Philly Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    #95 Jersey

    with 205,206 compensatory and non-tradable.
     
    Last edited: Apr 27, 2006
  5. Feep_FLA

    Feep_FLA Third String But Playing on Special Teams

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    I was told there would be no math.......:rocker:
     
  6. PATSNUTme

    PATSNUTme Paranoid Homer Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #75 Jersey

    On the AJ Hawk thread I said that I was board in a seminar. But not that bored.
     
    Last edited: Apr 27, 2006
  7. PatsFanInVa

    PatsFanInVa PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    ... starting out the exercise right, Mav - that puts picks 52, 75, and 86 for 2006 over the magic number (oh oh - that's prime BB/SP discovery territory...) and we get the Bear's 1st rounder, plus somebody around pick 120 or so as change (late 4th)?

    Or we can keep pick #86, and give them picks # 52, 75, 106, 191, and 205... I'm just dividing by 32 here, but that looks like we keep a 3rd, give up the higher 3rd, then throw in a high 4th(?), a 6th, and a 7th (if they'll bite.) Hmmmm... how would you do it?

    (Yes, this is a shameless self-bump. I want to see how people are thinking.)

    PFnV
     
  8. drpatriot

    drpatriot Third String But Playing on Special Teams

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    Sadly enough, I am that bored. So let's give this a try.
     
  9. PatsFanInVa

    PatsFanInVa PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    See, I thought you'd be more specific, Dr. P.

    In all seriousness... great homework, great writeup. I get where you're coming from, basically that you figure it's a deep enough draft to get what we need outside of round 1.

    Question - is that a general philosphy, or do you see the dropoff as shallow between rounds 1 and 2 this year? And is Sinorice an early 2nd rounder or higher?

    Thanks for taking the time on this insanity,

    PFnV
     
  10. drpatriot

    drpatriot Third String But Playing on Special Teams

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    I generally feel as though the 1st round is a key tool for developing one's franchise. However, this year I don't feel like the talent at #21 is that much better than in the mid-30s.

    I would only take Moss if he fell that low, I just don't project him as a first-round talent. However, he seems to be able to develop and will eventually provide an impact. If Moss wasn't available, I would probably trade down again and pick up a WR in the third round.
     
  11. maverick4

    maverick4 Banned

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    re

    drpatriot, that was an entertaining read, it made my head spin, nice! On the other hand, I'm not positive on the math, but doesn't your final result give us less points than we started with!?!?

    You ended up with:
    #34 Sinorice Moss, WR, Miami
    #48 Richard Marshall, CB, Fresno St.
    #83 Rodrigue Wright, DL, Texas
    #95 Spencer Havner, LB, UCLA
    #107 Ryan Cook, OL, New Mexico
    #115 Jerome Harrison, RB Washington St.
    #136 Skyler Green, WR, LSU
    #205 Anthony Schlegel LB Ohio St.
    #206 Darrell Hackney QB UAB
    #225 Tim Massaquoi TE Michigan

    Before the wheeling and dealing:
    21 (800),
    52 (380),
    75 (215),
    86 (160),
    106 (82),
    118 (58),
    136 (38),
    191 (15),
    205 (9.4),
    206 (9),
    229 (1).

    I think tomorrow will be very similar to what you generally described. Trade 2 for 1 up, then trade down a few spots, then move back up, then trade picks for next year picks, trade for a player... my God we have 11 picks this weekend!!! I knew that fact before, but it just hit me in the brain.
     
  12. drpatriot

    drpatriot Third String But Playing on Special Teams

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    Possibly, but we got Antwan Peek out of the deal so I call it even. He's worth a low 4th in my book, so i should come out even.
     
  13. bunzoburns

    bunzoburns Practice Squad Player

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    Draft Test

    I feel like I just gave birth.......to Mel Kiper Jr!
     
  14. PatsFanInVa

    PatsFanInVa PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    ... and that makes me a midwife. I'm definitely tracking which direction the Pats trade in, up or down, to get a read on this scenario's possibilities. Most of it is going to hinge on whether Dr.P. and BB/SP are on the same page regarding this draft's "dropoff" points. Hey, if you're a believer that there's a ton of talent at 1-15, and then all third round talent after that, you trade up. If you believe (as most do) it's a really deep draft, you might trade down (unless you also believe the really deep draft is headed up with some downright unsurpassed talent.) I believe that of Reggie Bush. After that, the top of Round 1 looks a lot like every other Top of Round 1.

    PFnV
     
  15. VJCPatriot

    VJCPatriot Pro Bowl Player

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    Too many move downs to suit my tastes. And you drafted 10 players. There's no way the Pats want to take 10 players in this years draft. There's no room on the roster and over half of them would get cut.

    I don't see much value to trading entirely out of the 1st round unless you are trying to save cap space but the Pats have about 15 mill+ in open cap space so that should NOT be a consideration.

    I think Moss should be available in the 2nd but Richard Marshall won't be. I don't think Marshall even gets past the 1st round and if he does he'll be gone within the first 10 picks of the second round.

    Trading a bunch of picks #2, #3, and #4 for the Bear's #1 just to trade back down doesn't make a lot of sense to me either.

    A lot of this moving I consider wasted motion.

    I think the Pats could certainly move around on draft day but I think they will most likely stand pat. They might move down a bit in the 1st round or up a bit in the 2nd round but I don't expect all this drastic movement you guys are projecting. I also think they will move certain picks for future picks instead of making selections this year.

    And oh yeah you forgot to give the Pats a K. One of those unmovable 6th rounders is an ideal pick to use on a Kicker which is currently a need believe it or not.
     
  16. maverick4

    maverick4 Banned

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    re

    I could be wrong, but I took the post as wheeling and dealing in good fun, not actually what he thought would happen.

    Did you miss the part in the question about trading in front of the Broncos, and then trading back out just to mess with their heads?
     
  17. PatsFanInVa

    PatsFanInVa PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Yeah but if they could do that, get decent value in the process, and make the Broncos shuffle around like crackheads realizing they just bought baking powder and water rolled into little balls... ohhhhh man that would be fun!

    Mav I am waiting on yours... what I liked about the one under discussion is 1) he actually did a ton of work figuring out the math and 2) he keyed all those moves to individuals he liked at exact spots, but mainly in the second round... it especially looks like gearing to get Marshall at 48.

    But then you can look it over and see most of the value comes in getting 35 and 48 spaced close together, so this strategy says there's a big dropoff somewhere between picks 48 and 52. It gives up 21 and 52 for 34 and 48. The rest of the moves are pretty much a wash, and I suspect are made at least partly in fun. I mean, getting from 33 and a late pick, to 34 and an earlier late pick, via 41 and... I forget... I'm thinking he might be making our brains hurt just for fun at this point.

    Dr. P? Absolutely serious in the late round dance?

    PFnV
     
  18. maverick4

    maverick4 Banned

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    Okay PFnVa

    I'll give Question 6 a crack, as it will help me better predict or anticipate what will happen tomorrow. It involves two unusual trades, and also somehow the points all work out... I think.

    These are my assumptions:
    - There are approximately 15 blue-chip players, and picks 15-40 are more of a crapshoot than in previous years.
    - Players are harder to grade this year compared to previous years, because of less game experience, less game film, more unknowns, and less workouts.
    - My main priorities for the draft are: WR, OLB, OL, and ILB.
    - The Bears, in their thirst for more picks, will settle for more picks but maybe slightly less overall points from a trade for #26 (edit: never mind this one, the points all worked out fine).
    - It is more important to accumulate enough quality picks to satisfy my position priorities with solid players and depth, than to go after any particular player.
    - There is more value in targeting players that are lower-profile, seem to be dropping in the draft, or where teams expected to draft them end up filling those holes through trade or free agency instead (I'm hoping Denver with receivers).
    - We live in a dream world where Chicago would trade #26 for 6 picks (they REALLY love extra picks).

    Moves (the Chicago trade doesn't happen first):
    - Pats #21 for Denver #37, #68, #161
    - Chicago #26 for Pats #52, #86, #106, #136, #161, #191

    Strategy/Rationale:
    I am not in love with any player for a specific position, and would be happy to draft any similarly skilled player left in a position value grouping. In terms of decisions, I want to draft the position that has fewer players left in my own scouting groupings at the time.

    Position Groupings for expected players left at our pick range:
    WR - HOLMES, Nance, Stovall, Avant, Jennings
    OL - MANGOLD, Lutui, Colledge, Winston
    DE/OLB - KIWANUKA, Tapp, Edwards, Gacong
    ILB - HODGE, Wilkerson, Parham, Hoyte
    Players in BOLD are ones you should take if at all available, because they have dropped and are good value at the earliest pick.

    Overall Picks Guess:
    #26: Holmes
    #37: Kiwanuka
    #68: Lutui
    #75: Wilkerson
    #118: Hoyte
    #205,206,209: The future David Givens, Adam Vinatieri, Tom Brady, or Rodney Harrison.

    .
     
    Last edited: Apr 28, 2006
  19. PatsFanInVa

    PatsFanInVa PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I gotcha, Mav - we're not getting inside that continental shelf of 1-15 without destroying our whole draft... so by moving down from 21 to 26, in essence, we get 3 "1/2 round" bumps, and lose 106 and a bunch of those late-rounders. I can respect that.

    What's emerging here is that even though it always looks like some blockbuster move is happening, what really happens is teams move up or down by a few places more often than not.

    I just got done with a unit of grad work... I think I am going to join you guys in the ranks of shuffle scenarios, essay only (Dr. P has done a great job on the fill in the blanks, hats off to him!)

    PFnV
     
  20. maverick4

    maverick4 Banned

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    re

    Right. However, my answer was simplistic. In reality, tomorrow may consists of several trades during the course of the draft with different teams in order to move up and grab their guy. It won't be two trades, where one team receives SIX draft picks! The Pats also may package their 4th-through-later picks to other teams for future picks if they feel they have satisfied their needs.
     
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