DaBruinz 53 Man Roster Prediction - One Surprise

[DaBruinz]

3 QBs - Brady, Cassel O'Connell

4 RBs - Maroney, Faulk, Jordan, Evans, Morris (a surprise cut)

6 WRs - Moss, Welker, Gaffney, Washington, Jackson, (Aiken/Ventrone - Coin flip)

3 TEs - Thomas, Watson, Spach, (DeVreeto the PS)
9 OL - Light, Mankins, Koppen, Yates (C/G), Kaczur (G/T), Hochstein (C/G), Flynn (C/G), Welbourn (G/T), Ross (G/T)(Reserve/PUP), Neal (G) (Reserve/Pup) Connolly(C/G) (I/R), Britt (G/T)


Defense


6 DL- Seymour, Wilfork, Warren, Green, Wright, LeKevin Smith

9 LBs - Bruschi, Vrabel, Thomas, Mayo, Woods, Crable, Guyton, Hobson, (Izzo/Alexander – coin flip decides this one)

9 DBs - Harrison, Sanders, Lynch, Meriweather, Hobbs, Bryant, Wheatley, Richardson, Wilhite

4 STs aces - Gostkowski (K)
Hanson (P)
Paxton (LS)
Slater (SAK)



Other Moves:
Bo Ruud (IR)
Vince Redd (PS)
DeVree (PS)
Adams (PS)
Dillard (PS)
BJGE (PS)
Sene (PS)


Trade:
Gutierrez (Conditional pick from Atlanta)

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

I like it. Thoughts...

Aiken possible IR so Ventrone stays

Spach shadow roster and available so Iz and Alex both stay

Someone cut Monday to sign a castoff vet OL backup on Monday

 

[DaBruinz]

I like it. Thoughts...

Aiken possible IR so Ventrone stays

Spach shadow roster and available so Iz and Alex both stay

Someone cut Monday to sign a castoff vet OL backup on Monday

I have a hard time seeing this team go with only 2 TEs when they've made it known they plan on running the ball MORE, not less. And neither Watson nor Thomas are known for their blocking skills.

As for Aiken, yes the IR is a possibility. One of the reasons I said coin flip.

As for picking up a line-man on Monday, I don't see that happening. They've already got Neal on the PUP. I think Ross is headed there as well. A player signing is going to look at that and weigh it against his chances of being on the team the entire year.

 

[PonyExpress]

Interesting take on Morris. He looked tentative vs the Giants, and is not in Jordan's class as a runner or receiver.

For my surprise cut I would guess Chad Jackson. I believe he has pissed off a number of vets over the years, including Brady and Troy Brown, and needed to make a statement this preseason. His statement was

"Will I ever be ready?" instead of "I am ready!".

That may not be enough, although I would like to see him stick.

Also, it looks to me like Spann, who was an early favorite, has simply been outplayed by Slater. I like Spann, but Slater's potential is obvious.

Redd is intriguing. I doubt he'll make the practice squad. The same a-holes who scooped up last year's OLB project from SMU will have Redd in their sights.

Also, I prefer Gutierrez to Cassel. Cassel is just too nervous in the pocket. Gutierrez aint great either, but at least he doesn't look nervous and his teammates seem to like him more.

 

[DaBruinz]

Interesting take on Morris. He looked tentative vs the Giants, and is not in Jordan's class as a runner or receiver.

For my surprise cut I would guess Chad Jackson. I believe he has pissed off a number of vets over the years, including Brady and Troy Brown, and needed to make a statement this preseason. His statement was

"Will I ever be ready?" instead of "I am ready!".

That may not be enough, although I would like to see him stick.

Pony - Why do you believe that Jackson has pissed off a number of vets over the years? And why would you go on to name Brady and Troy Brown? I mean, the Patriots management were the ones who took it easy with Jackson's hamstring injury during his rookie year. And the ACL injury in the AFCC game against the Colts that year couldn't have been avoided unless you believe that BB is clairvoyant. Everyone knows it takes 12 - 18 months to fully recover from that injury. That put Jackson to this January during the play-offs. There is only so much one can learn by watching film.

Also, it looks to me like Spann, who was an early favorite, has simply been outplayed by Slater. I like Spann, but Slater's potential is obvious.

Redd is intriguing. I doubt he'll make the practice squad. The same a-holes who scooped up last year's OLB project from SMU will have Redd in their sights.

I don't see the Cowboys looking for another OLB this year. There is potential that Rogers might not make the team there unless its strickly as a special teams maven.

Also, I prefer Gutierrez to Cassel. Cassel is just too nervous in the pocket. Gutierrez aint great either, but at least he doesn't look nervous and his teammates seem to like him more.

Again, what do you base the idea that players prefer Gutierrez over Cassel? I just don't believe that the Patriots would go with a back who only has 2 years experience as their primary back-up and only a rookie behind him. Even when you look back at 2001, the Pats had Bledsoe, Brady and Huard so they could afford to bring Brady along in that capacity. They don't have that if they release Cassel. I don't think Cassel did much to help himself, but neither did Gutierrez.

 

[Rob0729]

3 QBs - Brady, Cassel O'Connell

4 RBs - Maroney, Faulk, Jordan, Evans, Morris (a surprise cut)

6 WRs - Moss, Welker, Gaffney, Washington, Jackson, (Aiken/Ventrone - Coin flip)

3 TEs - Thomas, Watson, Spach, (DeVreeto the PS)
9 OL - Light, Mankins, Koppen, Yates (C/G), Kaczur (G/T), Hochstein (C/G), Flynn (C/G), Welbourn (G/T), Ross (G/T)(Reserve/PUP), Neal (G) (Reserve/Pup) Connolly(C/G) (I/R), Britt (G/T)


Defense


6 DL- Seymour, Wilfork, Warren, Green, Wright, LeKevin Smith

9 LBs - Bruschi, Vrabel, Thomas, Mayo, Woods, Crable, Guyton, Hobson, (Izzo/Alexander – coin flip decides this one)

9 DBs - Harrison, Sanders, Lynch, Meriweather, Hobbs, Bryant, Wheatley, Richardson, Wilhite

4 STs aces - Gostkowski (K)
Hanson (P)
Paxton (LS)
Slater (SAK)



Other Moves:
Bo Ruud (IR)
Vince Redd (PS)
DeVree (PS)
Adams (PS)
Dillard (PS)
BJGE (PS)
Sene (PS)


Trade:
Gutierrez (Conditional pick from Atlanta)

Morris was my prediction of a surprise cut before training camp. So I gotta agree with you there.

 

[Rob0729]

Interesting take on Morris. He looked tentative vs the Giants, and is not in Jordan's class as a runner or receiver.

For my surprise cut I would guess Chad Jackson. I believe he has pissed off a number of vets over the years, including Brady and Troy Brown, and needed to make a statement this preseason. His statement was

"Will I ever be ready?" instead of "I am ready!".

That may not be enough, although I would like to see him stick.

Also, it looks to me like Spann, who was an early favorite, has simply been outplayed by Slater. I like Spann, but Slater's potential is obvious.

Redd is intriguing. I doubt he'll make the practice squad. The same a-holes who scooped up last year's OLB project from SMU will have Redd in their sights.

Also, I prefer Gutierrez to Cassel. Cassel is just too nervous in the pocket. Gutierrez aint great either, but at least he doesn't look nervous and his teammates seem to like him more.

I think Morris and Jordan are redundant players trying to fill the same role on this team. Unless they have the luxary of an extra roster spot, I would say he would be the tough cut that would have to go.

As for Jackson, I think the guy gets one year to prove himself. He seems to be picking up the offense more now and has shown flashes of being a good red zone target (yes, it was against the 2s and 3s, but I can't see a starter covering him any better in both his TDs, well at least his first one against the Eagles). He was an imature rookie, maybe he has grown up.

I agree I prefer Gutierrez over Cassel only because he has more upside. I don't think either are a qualified #2. But Belichick may go with the experience in the offense over the upside.

I think Redd has a good shot to make the practice squad. He has been good, but not standout in what he has done. There are guys like that on every roster who will be cut today. Not all of them will be picked up.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

I have a hard time seeing this team go with only 2 TEs when they've made it known they plan on running the ball MORE, not less. And neither Watson nor Thomas are known for their blocking skills.
As for picking up a line-man on Monday, I don't see that happening. They've already got Neal on the PUP. I think Ross is headed there as well. A player signing is going to look at that and weigh it against his chances of being on the team the entire year.

I could see the 3rd TE esp if he's not a vet whose year's salary is a lock if he's on the roster game one. Spach doesn't qualify I believe.

An OL player who is cut from another squad is motivated to take a job. Being on PUP does not guarantee that the player will not move to IR later although I'm personally optimistic about Neal and Ross coming back for the 7th game.

 

[PonyExpress]

Pony - Why do you believe that Jackson has pissed off a number of vets over the years? And why would you go on to name Brady and Troy Brown? I mean, the Patriots management were the ones who took it easy with Jackson's hamstring injury during his rookie year. And the ACL injury in the AFCC game against the Colts that year couldn't have been avoided unless you believe that BB is clairvoyant. Everyone knows it takes 12 - 18 months to fully recover from that injury. That put Jackson to this January during the play-offs. There is only so much one can learn by watching film.

Before Felger went south, in 2006, he had Troy brown on the radio and Troy was very close mouthed and IMO negative about Jackson, in a way that seemed out of character for Troy. I have since seen Brady talk about CJ, and he has done so in a very restrained and diplomatic manner, different than usual- he normally overpraises hard working teammates. He also made a comment last season about what a relief it was to have vet receivers, not young guys who "show up to meetings and forget their playbook". I have also heard Vrabel make some recent statements about certain high draft picks "not getting it" and that such individuals are only around "as long as BB can stand it".

When Jackson made that gesture at Cassel during preseason game 1, I think he may have confirmed some of the concerns about him in the mind of vets, like Brady.

From these inferences, and Jackson's up and down play, I am drawing the conclusion that he needed to make a clear statement this summer, and I'm not sure he has done it. Therefore his position is precarious and the scholarship is over.

Personally I want him to stay, and I think he is close to making an impact.

I don't see the Cowboys looking for another OLB this year. There is potential that Rogers might not make the team there unless its strickly as a special teams maven.

I don't mean necessarily the Cowboys, but another team like that, such as Browns, or the NYJ, or Miami, or SD etc.

Again, what do you base the idea that players prefer Gutierrez over Cassel? I just don't believe that the Patriots would go with a back who only has 2 years experience as their primary back-up and only a rookie behind him. Even when you look back at 2001, the Pats had Bledsoe, Brady and Huard so they could afford to bring Brady along in that capacity. They don't have that if they release Cassel. I don't think Cassel did much to help himself, but neither did Gutierrez.

I can't argue with your reasoning. The back-up Qb sit is not ideal. I would like to see Huard or Harrington added. But given the three players available, I would take Gutierrez as the lesser of two evils. As far as the players preferring Gutierrez: Gutierrez is a blue collar kind of guy, who played special teams, and came up the hard way by transferring to Idaho. The locker room understands that. Izzo even commented on that, talking about his willignness to play special teams, that he was a "tough guy". Also there is more camaraderie between Gutierrez and the other players on the field. Cassel is kind of a metrosexual Brady type without the game to back it up, who stayed at USC to play baseball rather than transfer and play football. That is not a background most guys understand, and his play does not seem to have won the respect of the starters, from my own observation of the way they interact with him.

 

[Rob0729]

Before Felger went south, in 2006, he had Troy brown on the radio and Troy was very close mouthed and IMO negative about Jackson, in a way that seemed out of character for Troy. I have since seen Brady talk about CJ, and he has done so in a very restrained and diplomatic manner, different than usual- he normally overpraises hard working teammates. He also made a comment last season about what a relief it was to have vet receivers, not young guys who "show up to meetings and forget their playbook". I have also heard Vrabel make some recent statements about certain high draft picks "not getting it" and that such individuals are only around "as long as BB can stand it".

When Jackson made that gesture at Cassel during preseason game 1, I think he may have confirmed some of the concerns about him in the mind of vets, like Brady.

From these inferences, and Jackson's up and down play, I am drawing the conclusion that he needed to make a clear statement this summer, and I'm not sure he has done it. Therefore his position is precarious and the scholarship is over.

Personally I want him to stay, and I think he is close to making an impact.

Personally, I am not worried about what went on in his rookie season. A lot of players come into the league very imature (what the TE rookie in Dallas on HBO's Hard Knocks to see that). Many grow out of it, some don't.

As for the Cassel exchange, if Jackson ran the right route and Cassel was the one who screwed up I don't know if I blame him all that much if Cassel got in his grill. If Brady did it, that's a different thing because he is a HOF QB. Although I have seen players give it back to Brady on a rare occassion. Those type of things really don't bother me. Maturity matters to me when it comes to practicing and game preparation.

He still could be immature. But I don't know if you can say that based on one exchange with Cassel.

 

[PonyExpress]

Personally, I am not worried about what went on in his rookie season. A lot of players come into the league very imature (what the TE rookie in Dallas on HBO's Hard Knocks to see that). Many grow out of it, some don't.

As for the Cassel exchange, if Jackson ran the right route and Cassel was the one who screwed up I don't know if I blame him all that much if Cassel got in his grill. If Brady did it, that's a different thing because he is a HOF QB. Although I have seen players give it back to Brady on a rare occassion. Those type of things really don't bother me. Maturity matters to me when it comes to practicing and game preparation.

He still could be immature. But I don't know if you can say that based on one exchange with Cassel.

Look, I agree with you. But it's the vets that matter. I think people sometimes underestimate the influence of the vet hierarchy in running the team. In many ways, they themselves decide the cuts, they take likes and dislikes to certain players, they talk to the coaches. If keeping CJ around offends the veteran code, in the sense that they don't think he has earned his spot and is simply being carried because he's a high draft pick and the front office doesn't want to admit a mistake, this creates locker room friction.

For example, I wouldn't be surprised at all if the vets are wondering why K. Washington hasn't been given more of a chance at WR.

I like CJ, and I'm rooting for him. My analysis is dispassionate and an attempt to predict, not justify, what may happen.

 

[Rob0729]

Look, I agree with you. But it's the vets that matter. I think people sometimes underestimate the influence of the vet hierarchy in running the team. In many ways, they themselves decide the cuts, they take likes and dislikes to certain players, they talk to the coaches. If keeping CJ around offends the veteran code, in the sense that they don't think he has earned his spot and is simply being carried because he's a high draft pick and the front office doesn't want to admit a mistake, this creates locker room friction.

For example, I wouldn't be surprised at all if the vets are wondering why K. Washington hasn't been given more of a chance at WR.

I like CJ, and I'm rooting for him. My analysis is dispassionate and an attempt to predict, not justify, what may happen.

I'm sure Brady has a lot of influence on the offense including the roster, but you are assuming that Brady doesn't want Jackson on the team. Even if he burnt some bridges in his rookie season, doesn't mean that if he turned over a new leaf that the players wouldn't forgive him. I am just saying you seem to be making a giant leap to suggest that maybe Brady and other players want Jackson off the team.

 

[DaBruinz]

Before Felger went south, in 2006, he had Troy brown on the radio and Troy was very close mouthed and IMO negative about Jackson, in a way that seemed out of character for Troy. I have since seen Brady talk about CJ, and he has done so in a very restrained and diplomatic manner, different than usual- he normally overpraises hard working teammates. He also made a comment last season about what a relief it was to have vet receivers, not young guys who "show up to meetings and forget their playbook". I have also heard Vrabel make some recent statements about certain high draft picks "not getting it" and that such individuals are only around "as long as BB can stand it".

2006? You mean Troy's last year with the Pats? When he spent the entire time on the PUP and when he was finally called upon, he muffed the punt return? Did you stop to think that maybe Troy saw the writing on the wall when the Pats drafted Jackson and might have come to the stark realization that his playing days could be over? Or maybe it was the Pats "coddling" Jackson as he returned from a hamstring injury. Why are you assuming you know what Troy Brown was thinking based on one interview with Felger.

As for the other comments, why do you ASSUME its Jackson and not say, Meriweather or Maroney? Also, how can they comment on Jackson's play when he's not on the field? How can YOU ignore that the kid came into camp in better shape than his rookie season? Also, I think that his Highschool coach and College coach know him better than you. They both said that it takes him awhile to really learn a play book.

Oh, in 2006, who were these "young" WRs that Brady was throwing to?

I think a lot of what you have said is your own hyperbole and you reading too much into what was said, thinking that you know these guys.

When Jackson made that gesture at Cassel during preseason game 1, I think he may have confirmed some of the concerns about him in the mind of vets, like Brady.

Again, assumption on your part about these "concerns". You have no idea what they were thinking and, as someone else pointed out, Jackson might have been the one to run the correct route and Cassel threw it wrong. You sure as hell don't know the answer to that unless you were in the film meeting after the fact.

From these inferences, and Jackson's up and down play, I am drawing the conclusion that he needed to make a clear statement this summer, and I'm not sure he has done it. Therefore his position is precarious and the scholarship is over.

Personally I want him to stay, and I think he is close to making an impact.

How can you be inferring anything when everything you've mentioned is pure speculation based on top of assumptions that you have no way of concluding?

Everyone felt that Jackson needed to make a statement this summer. However, this summer is also still within the 12-18 month time frame for full recovery from an ACL injury (just barely). Jackson's play and confidence seemed to be getting better in small increments. The season will tel us whether or not he's going anywhere. Remember, the Pats gave Bethel 4 training camps before they tossed him to the curb.

 

[Mack Herron]

Agree that both Morris and Jackson have not outperformed competitors in the games we have seen. On hte other side, Ben-Jarvis Green-Ellis has performed well in limited action. I see him atleast as a PS signing.

Much as I wanted Slater to do well, he has not shown anything in the return game (as has, say, CJ Jones, despite 2 fumbles). He is not a lock. Also, Fernando Bryant is no Asante Samuel, but T-Wheat might reminds me of a young AS.

 

[mgteich]

OFFENSE
I still support having five running backs. Redundant players are also called "depth in case of injury". How many times will it take to understand that we need fresh/healhy legs in the playoffs. And perhaps we might win one less game if we don't keep a Ventrone, but it seems unlikely. It seem much more likely that we loose a game late if we don't have enough depth at running back. Hochstein is a blocking TE. Also, if Aiken goes to IR, I'd rather keep the TE than Ventrone. For me, the TE situation depends more on Hochstein's health than anything else.
====================================================
DEFENSE
I'll wait until tonight but I don't think either Alexander or Izzo is going anywhere, especially in order to keep Guyton. I suppose Richardson could be the odd man out instead (or Lewis Sanders) on my roster. We really don't need FIVE corners. I do like the idea with Wilhite as a developmental player.

BOTTOM LINE - DEFENSE
The bottom line for the defense is that I think there is a limit with regard to the number development players. You have Wilhite AND Richardson AND Guyton. I have only Wilhite, but am fine with Richardson because (if healthy) he might be able to be a dime back on Day One.

 

[PonyExpress]

2006? You mean Troy's last year with the Pats? When he spent the entire time on the PUP and when he was finally called upon, he muffed the punt return? Did you stop to think that maybe Troy saw the writing on the wall when the Pats drafted Jackson and might have come to the stark realization that his playing days could be over? Or maybe it was the Pats "coddling" Jackson as he returned from a hamstring injury. Why are you assuming you know what Troy Brown was thinking based on one interview with Felger.

As for the other comments, why do you ASSUME its Jackson and not say, Meriweather or Maroney? Also, how can they comment on Jackson's play when he's not on the field? How can YOU ignore that the kid came into camp in better shape than his rookie season? Also, I think that his Highschool coach and College coach know him better than you. They both said that it takes him awhile to really learn a play book.

Oh, in 2006, who were these "young" WRs that Brady was throwing to?

I think a lot of what you have said is your own hyperbole and you reading too much into what was said, thinking that you know these guys.




Again, assumption on your part about these "concerns". You have no idea what they were thinking and, as someone else pointed out, Jackson might have been the one to run the correct route and Cassel threw it wrong. You sure as hell don't know the answer to that unless you were in the film meeting after the fact.




How can you be inferring anything when everything you've mentioned is pure speculation based on top of assumptions that you have no way of concluding?

Everyone felt that Jackson needed to make a statement this summer. However, this summer is also still within the 12-18 month time frame for full recovery from an ACL injury (just barely). Jackson's play and confidence seemed to be getting better in small increments. The season will tel us whether or not he's going anywhere. Remember, the Pats gave Bethel 4 training camps before they tossed him to the curb.

I'm going out on a limb. Hopefully I'm wrong.

 

[DaBruinz]

OFFENSE
I still support having five running backs. Redundant players are also called "depth in case of injury". How many times will it take to understand that we need fresh/healhy legs in the playoffs. And perhaps we might win one less game if we don't keep a Ventrone, but it seems unlikely. It seem much more likely that we loose a game late if we don't have enough depth at running back. Hochstein is a blocking TE. Also, if Aiken goes to IR, I'd rather keep the TE than Ventrone. For me, the TE situation depends more on Hochstein's health than anything else.
====================================================
DEFENSE
I'll wait until tonight but I don't think either Alexander or Izzo is going anywhere, especially in order to keep Guyton. I suppose Richardson could be the odd man out instead (or Lewis Sanders) on my roster. We really don't need FIVE corners. I do like the idea with Wilhite as a developmental player.

BOTTOM LINE - DEFENSE
The bottom line for the defense is that I think there is a limit with regard to the number development players. You have Wilhite AND Richardson AND Guyton. I have only Wilhite, but am fine with Richardson because (if healthy) he might be able to be a dime back on Day One.

One thing that I kept in the back of my mind is that Belichick has never cut a pick at the end of training camp who was drafted in the 4th round or higher. Kareem Brown wasn't cut until mid-season last year so he doesn't count.

 

[mgteich]

I have always had Wilhite on the roster. The question mark is Guyton and Aiken/Ventorne

One thing that I kept in the back of my mind is that Belichick has never cut a drop pick at the end of training camp who was drafted in the 4th round or higher. Kareem Brown wasn't cut until mid-season last year so he doesn't count.

 

[Patsfanin Philly]

2006? You mean Troy's last year with the Pats? When he spent the entire time on the PUP and when he was finally called upon, he muffed the punt return?

Uh, that was 2007, the December home game vs Miami. He had 5 other punt returns that day averaging 9.2 with a long of 28..........
His point was that Brown was commenting on CJ before his career with the Pats was at an end.....

 

[DaBruinz]

Uh, that was 2007, the December home game vs Miami. He had 5 other punt returns that day averaging 9.2 with a long of 28..........
His point was that Brown was commenting on CJ before his career with the Pats was at an end.....

That's just it. He did NOT provide Troy's comments. Its Pony's assumption that it was CJ and not someone like Gabriel. Who many people said was a disruption in the locker-room and who "didn't get it."