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Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by TheGodInAGreyHoodie, Dec 24, 2008.

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  1. TheGodInAGreyHoodie

    TheGodInAGreyHoodie Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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  2. Gwedd

    Gwedd PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #61 Jersey

    Well now,

    That's an interesting read. Thanks for posting the link.
     
  3. jmt57

    jmt57 Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Interesting, the statistics the high school coach used en route to his state championship were put together by the same professor who put together a study about 4th down probabilities which was scoffed at by nearly everybody in the NFL. The exception that took a serious look at the study? Bill Belichick.

    Incremental Analysis, With Two Yards To Go
     
  4. Deus Irae

    Deus Irae PatsFans.com Retired Jersey Club PatsFans.com Supporter

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    In every sport I ever played, I loved a coach with stones like this guy has.
     
  5. TheGodInAGreyHoodie

    TheGodInAGreyHoodie Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    Okay now I only have one question left. Why hasn't Bob Kraft hired that Berkley Professor?

    The combined brain power of him, BB and Ernie.
     
  6. Deus Irae

    Deus Irae PatsFans.com Retired Jersey Club PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Well, we don't know exactly what Ernie does for the team. Maybe he's already 'liberated' the data...
     
  7. ALP

    ALP Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    the firt person in the NFL to stop punting on almost every 4th down, will easily go to the playoffs....
     
  8. TheGodInAGreyHoodie

    TheGodInAGreyHoodie Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    Personally I think the most interesting dynamic is the onside kicks.

    Lets say you build a true onside kick recovery unit. Not a unit that practices 95% of the time a regular kick off and has onside kicks as an after thought. But a unit that is gear to onside kick recovery with 5-10 different plays and formations.

    And let say you could recover the ball 25+% of the time and the rest of the time you are giving the other team 15 yards of better field position.

    1. An extra 2 possession per game would more than offset the field position.

    2. Teams will need to spend valuable prep time each week prepping. Much like the wildcat did for the Dolphins.

    But I also like the no punt approach because what it does to third down. You just need to move the ball you don't have to make a 1st.
     
  9. ctpatsfan77

    ctpatsfan77 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #3 Jersey

    Not to splash too much cold water on this, but there is one thing that needs to be accounted for--someone has to hold the ball for the Ghost. . . .
     
  10. TheGodInAGreyHoodie

    TheGodInAGreyHoodie Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    It is about time Kevin started earning his paycheck.
     
  11. BradyFTW!

    BradyFTW! PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Yeah, apparently we have Ernie Adams to thank for that one. He's the one that read the study and spoke to the professor at length about it.
     
  12. RayClay

    RayClay Pro Bowl Player

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    #75 Jersey

    Like any other statistical philosophy, you have to crunch the numbers.
    4th and 8 and he converts 50% of the time? Not in the NFL.

    Starting on your own 38 you score a touchdown 77% of the time?

    I don't think I even need to compare these to NFL stats, but be my guest if you want to.

    Bottom line. Nobody is playing any defense in this league. Hell, you probably hardly ever see a 4th down. Of course you want the ball.

    In the NFL, where you could take a 0-0 into the third quarter quite often? I want to play field position and I'm not handing the ball over on my 10 yard line, thank you very much.:nono:
     
    Last edited: Dec 24, 2008
  13. ctpatsfan77

    ctpatsfan77 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    FWIW, that study is mentioned in The Blueprint. It says that, statistically, going for it is the better alternative unless:
    • You absolutely need the "guaranteed" 3 points (e.g., 2 seconds left, down 3 or less).
    • You're behind your own 10, or past your opponents' 10.
    • You have more than 20 yards or so to go on 4th down.

    In other words, statistically speaking, BB made the right call to go for it on 4th-and-13 in the SB. :eek:
     
  14. RayClay

    RayClay Pro Bowl Player

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    #75 Jersey

    I'm only replying to the exact case and statistics of theat high school coach.

    I disagreed with the SB decision, but I'm not going to argue some theory I haven't studied.

    The coach gave good reasons and i quoted the statistics. No way that applies to the NFL (the statistics I quoted)..
     
  15. billdog3484

    billdog3484 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    its definitely interesting. i feel the way offenses are these days, converting a third or fourth down with less then 5 yards to go is much easier than in years past due to the changes in the rules. it is definitely against conventional wisdom but i see what it could do.

    i dont know if it would work for most teams, and i personlly would never employ it on my team, BUT

    lets consider the patriots. i feel the best thing about our defense over the past decade sure has been our red zone defense. i feel like we give up a good amount of yardage between the 20's. our red zone D, with the exception of this year has been great. our offense, on the other hand, has been pretty efficient on 3rd downs. if we are between 37-45% on third downs, if we would go for it on 4th down that would only double that number.

    a coach in the NFL that employed that technique would need a large set of cahones, but it has the potential, especially if they had our team. i would have a major problem going for 4th and 5 on my own 25 yard line. that decreases the size of the field and puts the team in field goal range right off the bat, so if you dont convert you are pretty much giving up 3 points.

    maybe the lions should try this week. whats the worst that could happen
     
  16. Pat the Pats Fan

    Pat the Pats Fan In the Starting Line-Up

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    #50 Jersey

    Coach would need some brass ones to do this in the NFL. But, if one did, others would follow, like the freezing the kicker the occurred last year, at least until a team was burned and it cost them a game......
     
  17. SpiderFox53

    SpiderFox53 Third String But Playing on Special Teams

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    If you punt from your own 5, as is the premise for this example, and get a 40 yard punt with a 10 yard return, the other team would start on your 35 yard line not their own. While I'm pretty sure that the percentage of TD's scored in the NFL when starting on the plus 35 isn't 77, I'm also pretty sure that it is up there.

    The author of that piece had 8 stuck on his brain or it was a typo for him to have typed 38.
     
    Last edited: Dec 25, 2008
  18. Pats726

    Pats726 Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    OR have a one year run with teh team...
     
  19. RayClay

    RayClay Pro Bowl Player

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    #75 Jersey

    I misread. Still, they play defense in the NFL and I severely doubt 77% of those become TDs. More likely field goals.

    You also need to check the likelihood that you will go 95 yards for a TD, don't you? Also add in the likelihood of a turnover, some of which will be TDs.

    That's the problem with these statistical "systems". They fail to account for all factors and game situations (how tired opposing defense are etc. etc. the list is endless).

    I sure would have liked to have those three points in the Super Bowl. I really think Belichick was fatigued from all the harassment about the spy thing. He coached a poor game IMO and that call was part of it. (I believe he calls the flow, if not individual plays).

    I know there are statisticians who say you should always pass, because they study average gain and make calculations. Of course that ignores the fact that running the ball makes your line more aggressive and beats up on the defense, slows the pass rush etc.

    Statistics are to be used. BB knows that. They don't come close to telling the whole story in a game played by humans.
     
  20. TheGodInAGreyHoodie

    TheGodInAGreyHoodie Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    At the NFL level it might makes sense to use on a game by game approach.

    Don't punt you are playing the all offense, no defense Indy Colts. Odds are you will convert and the last thing in thing in the world you want to put the ball in Mannings hands and 20 yards of field position doesn't matter that much, he can score from anywhere.

    But against the steelers which wins on D, use the traditional plan.
     
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