Schedule review...
Please compare the Patriots schedule this year and the Colts. i know that you cannot and should not just run down a schedule and say ... win, win, loss, tossup, but the Pats will be prohibitive favorites in nine games.
The Colts will be prohibitive favorites in only in three.
The balance will be tough games. Good clubs win about 50% of these balanced contests. Belichick's record however is astonishingly good against top clubs. Nevertheless using the guidelines, the Pats should win 3 or 4 of the remaining 7 contests giving them a record of 12 or 13 victories. The Colts on the other hand using the guidelines, will likely win 6 or 7 of the balance to go with their 3 easy wins. Projected gives them a 9 or 10 win season. But I think they are much weaker than that, while their division has gotten a lot better.
The Titans are righting themselves and Jax won 12 games with youngsters last year. I think Jax passes them and the Colts finish at or below .500.
Thirteen victories ought to get the Pats HFA throughout the playoffs.
Getting to the Tournament as Parcels has said, is more then half the battle...