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Culpepper Question

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by Keegs, Jul 8, 2006.

  1. Keegs

    Keegs In the Starting Line-Up

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    Ok im not trying to "bait trolls" or anything like that. It's an honest question.

    There are a few dolphin fans on here replying to threads..........but theres one thing i haven't seen them touch.

    I was wondering if you could explain Culpepper's performance before he was injured last year. Why was it so terrible?.............. then compare it to Brad Johnson and explain why Johnson was more succesfull with stats and wins with the same team.

    thanks.
     
  2. desi-patsfan

    desi-patsfan In the Starting Line-Up

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    Even though your not trying to "bait", thats exactly what you are doing. Who cares about last year. Lets worry what Culpepper does with his new team and new system in the coming year. Maybe Culpepper was trying too hard after losing Moss. THinking he has to do more for the team. Johnson is a savvy veteran and just used the tools around him.
     
    Last edited: Jul 8, 2006
  3. Keegs

    Keegs In the Starting Line-Up

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    ok i see what you are saying but people are already discussing points with these "trolls" in other threads, so this should not matter.... plus they should have done their homework on culpepper so i want to hear what they have to say..

    Either way, i don't believe the "trying to hard" excuse...
     
  4. desi-patsfan

    desi-patsfan In the Starting Line-Up

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    heh yea the trying to hard wasnt a great excuse but its the only one i could think of without actually going back and reviewing the games.
     
  5. Keegs

    Keegs In the Starting Line-Up

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    well mine isnt much better.
    all i have is "Culpepper didn't have moss anymore"...

    sounds ridiculous for a 39 td 11 int QB to drop that low but he was god awful before he got injured.
     
  6. Welker83

    Welker83 On the Game Day Roster

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    Like all things there is no one reason.... but here are a lot of mitigating factors.

    1. O-line. This O-line had been bad for a while and the early loss of center matt birk did not help it much at all...it was one of the worst in the leagues last year. Culpepper can ussually compensate by rolling out but teams were unafraid of any of their wideouts so they began to all out blitz. if you don't believe it they were so desperate they traded for a 400 lb toni fonuti and he couldn't even suit up.

    2. No running game. On all of pep's wins the Rb's broke 100 yards..in all of their losses the rb's failed to exceed 100.

    3. Linehan/Moss effect- When linehan decided to go to miami and moss was traded the coached decided to change the philosophy...but they forgot to change the system. Linehans attack only works if you take shots down the field to set up the run. The new cordinator decided they wanted more high % short and mid level passes...unluckily the system only works when the safties are off the LOS by scaring them with the deep threat.

    4. Defensive cohesivness- Pep was always playing from behind which forced them into passing situations which exposed their weakest link their offensive line. With all the new guys they brought in it took them a while to gel and the first 8 games shows that they were not on the same page. By the time johnson came in the defense started to pick up their slack which let them get away from always trying to comeback. It also helps they had a powder puff schedule in during the end of the year.

    And you will bring it up so this is all i have to say about the Moss/Pep suck apart arguement. In 2004 Pep had his Best career as a QB while moss Had his worst season as a WR....if moss "made" pep then why do their numbers not correlate? if it was true moss's worst season should coincide with pep's worst season. But to say they have no effect on each other also is ludacris...Moss makes any QB better, But he does not make them. Also if moss made pep then why does pep throw over 70% accuracy on short and intermediate routes? He surpassed joe montanas numbers for efficiency! in 2oo4 had peyton manning broke an arm Pep would have been the MVP hands down.

    69.2 % completion rate
    4717 yards
    39 TD's....39 TD's....39 Td's!!!!
    11 picks
    18 40+ yard plays
    2 rushing TD's
    406 yards rushing


    Pep is one of the most efficient QB's to ever play the game. Career completion % of 64.4 %...his worst season he threw 60.7%. Those numbers even exceed brady's numbers and he's a fantastic QB.


    Most of you willprolly just say

    1. He fumbles too much.... yes he's prone to fumbling cause he has small hands... but does his completion % and TD's more than make up for that? YES!

    2. He can't read defenses- How the hell do you have a career 64.4% completion rate if you can't read the defense? How the hell do you throw 39 TD's if you can't read defenses? he was just chucking them to moss right? ok 39-13 is 26...so who the hell caught those 26 other TD's?


    If a player plays bad and his team as a whole plays bad then who is to blame? do you really think pep single handedly screwed them up? was he out there tripping CB's as they were being burned for TD's?

    Now for all those who still think pep sucks, and that randy made him, and that he can't read defenses i want to ask you a question...

    Is culpepper better than: Jay fiedler...or AJ feeley...or Brian Griese...Or Gus Ferotte???? If you think pep is not an upgrade over these guys then you are not even qualified to handle sharp spoons.

    Bottom line pep is an upgrade. His career numbers are impressive. He's surrounded by a talented team with excellent coaching. He's being set up to succeed.... in minny last year he had mediocre widouts with a bad line and bad coaching and a porous defense. Sounds like he was being set up to fail.
     
    Last edited: Jul 8, 2006
  7. arrellbee

    arrellbee Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job

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    Well, you have probably identified a key aspect of QB style and in particular, Culpepper, and which is probably very pertinent as part of the answer that Keegs posed.

    QBs that are 'loose' in the pocket, like Culpepper, are a double-edged sword. There are significant positives but also very signficant subtle negatives.

    The positives tend to be flashy and obvious to most folks watching and tend to be overemphasized by the pundits. (A similar dynamic applies to other positions - Freeney comes to mind .... but that's another thread) Those positives are when the QB comes loose from the pocket and either is able to buy enough time to make a spectacular pass or runs for the first down. Certainly making first downs is the name of the game and such plays are of significant value - no question.

    But you can see the subtle negatives if you watch thoughtfully. How does the OL block for a QB that is loose in the pocket ?? Tactics that work great for QBs that stay in a tight pocket, like blocking the DE outside and finally pushing him back behind the QB might actually block him into the path of the QB if the QB is sliding sideways. The tackle simply doesn't have an idea of where to block the end to keep him away from the QB. The best tactic is, of course, for the DE to block like he would if the QB is staying in the pocket and it's the QBs problem if he moves into the path of the DE. But the problem is that the situation works subtly on the minds of the tackles. Why do you want to put maximum effort on blocking if it might be wasted when the QB slides to the other side. Or even if you give maximum effort, that may be pushing the DE right at the QB if the QB is sliding to that side. So you get some uncertainty and possible lack of maximum effort blocking. It's very different when you have a strict pocket passer because what constitutes success in blocking is well defined and can be worked on. The QBs who can sense how to make small moves (not major loose moves) in the pocket add to the success of that kind of OL pass blocking (Tom Brady is a premier example of this). If it's bad for the OL, it's worse for a TE in motion to block or a back kept in to block. They have to have their eyes forward and can't know where the QB is so the only block left to them that is always good is a standup-stopdead block against a DL or LB that has penetrated. Good luck with that kind of block. They have no idea if they wanted to block to one side which side to block to.

    The same uncertainty exists for the receivers also. If the QB is loose, chances are he is not always set up to hit the receiver on his initial break in the pattern. And what is the long term reward for a receiver to work on precise pattern running when he's probably not going to get the ball on a great pattern run much of the time. So, over time, what you get are receivers that are going thru the motion on patterns without top effort because they expect to have to scramble at the end anyway. DBs are able to recover to the receivers a lot of the time and maintain closer coverage when a receiver is scrambling and looking back to see when the QB might be throwing to him. The interesting exception to this would be a Randy Moss who is so egotistical that he isn't going to change his routes because of the QB. It's up to the QB to adapt to him. And with Randy Moss, he is a viable target for a LONGER period of time than most receivers because if he is tightly covered because of longer time before the QB gets the pass off, he will still win most balls; and if he is flying long, he is open for a longer extended period of time on the fly pattern. This works really WELL for a QB like Culpepper because even if he needs more time because of being loose in the pocket, he is also pretty good at staying free. The flip side of the coin is the situation when Moss was gone. While the receivers may have been very decent receivers, none of them were 'go-to' guys where they could win contested balls like Moss could or could run long fly patterns beating the DB. Moss still attempted the passes but with a higher probability of interception or pass defensed.

    The interesting issue to consider is - ? - how will Culpepper's style fit in with Saban's preferences for coaching and execution ??

    (I think fans and even, surprisingly, the media (actually maybe not much of a surprise), don't pay anywhere enough attention to the meshing of the QB and the coach. Even if a QB is (hyped) considered to be a top QB, if his style doesn't mesh with the type of execution of the offense that the coach believes in and wants to coach to, the mismatch will cause a dichotomy of solid wins and headscratching misfire losses. An interesting example might be Belichick and Bernie Kosar. Also it's obvious that pedestrian QBs who will work effectively within a coach's scheme can be very successful even tho not highly hyped. Example might be Sims with Parcells.)

    So back to Saban and Culpepper. If Saban has any flavor of being a 'Belichick' clone, he's going to want methodical, consistent, and predictable offense. I seriously doubt whether Belichick would ever use a QB like Culpepper. It will be interesting to see whether Culpepper and Saban can mesh. My bet is no - it's just a matter of how long Saban will try and my guess is that the Dolphins will be a somewhat erratic team while that is going on. Sorry Dolphin fans. There is going to be a lot of head scratching while this is going on but it is certainly unlikely to have the Dolphins seriously challenging for the AFC East.
     
  8. patman52

    patman52 On the Game Day Roster

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    No one can say cullpepper sucks. He doesn't. But I dont think of him as an elite QB, but he is better than what they had last year.

    My biggest gripe against Cullpepper is that he has brain farts like Bledsoe. He will go 5 fo 6 on a drive then throw an interception. And he still runs with the ball not tucked in, after being in the league for 7 years. His gaudy numbers can be attributed to playing in a dome for 3/4 of his games also. With the exception of chicago last year the North sucked for D also.
     
  9. PF1996

    PF1996 Third String But Playing on Special Teams

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    Include also the offensive system Minnesota ran and a very good offensive team.

    Culpepper is an upgrade from the Dolphin's previous QBs ....but just about ANY QB would have been an upgrade. The upgrade isn't enough to make the Dolphins a top ten team. 2005 wasn't a surprise for anyone who has watched Culpepper play. Culpepper will be successful only if the team is successful but he will not play a large part in determining that success. Thus, he cannot perform well when his running game falls below a 4.0 ypa clip whereas Brady performs well with a worse running game.
     
  10. spacecrime

    spacecrime Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    This is backwards.

    Generally, if you are winning the game, you run more to run out the clock. If you are losing, you pass right up to the end and drop the running game because you aren't going to make up 2 TDs int he fouth qtr by running between tackles.

    In Dillon's 1600 yard season, he had a uge # of carries. That is because the Patriots almoist never trailed in at any point in the game.

    What you need to look at to see if the runninig game is any good is ypc.

    If in those under 100-yd games, the RBs carried the ball 15 times for 90 yards, don't say they had a bad running game. They just didn't run enough.

    Likewise, if they carried 30 times for 110 yards, don't say the running game made the difference,

    I don't know what hte average yards per carry are for the games you mention. You seem to have the Vikings stats handy. Would you mind posting ypc in winning games and losing games? Thanks.
     
  11. arrellbee

    arrellbee Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job

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    Welker83 - thanks for the post. Good thoughts to consider.

    Spacecrime had a good point. If you have those stats, it would be interesting to see.
     
  12. feelthepain

    feelthepain Banned

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    Why doesn't Brady even come close to Culpepper's #'s, but Brady's elite?? You can't ride the fence, Brady isn't so special that his AVG. #'s compared to Pep's make him elite, just because of the SB wins. The SB wins are a product of the team and coaching play not just QB play. Pat fans just want Brady to be the best so they lean on the SB's like a crutch. You should be thrilled to have those SB's but stop being naive as to how you got them.
     
  13. scout

    scout Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    #15 Jersey

    Gee I don't know, maybe if Brady played in Minnesota's conference his numbers would be better? Hey, just put me down as one who is not nervous about Miami knocking N.E. off because they have Culpepper.
     
  14. pats1

    pats1 Moderator PatsFans.com Supporter

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    The Patriots nor I could care less if the Dolphins had God at QB. It doesn't matter. The Pats will always find a way to beat him.
     
  15. feelthepain

    feelthepain Banned

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    I feel the exact same way about NE and Brady!
     
    Last edited: Jul 8, 2006
  16. pats-blue

    pats-blue Third String But Playing on Special Teams

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    I'm sure you would since New England is 6-4 against Miami since Brady took over and one of the doofin wins was against out 3rd stringers.
     
  17. spacecrime

    spacecrime Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    We are riding the fence? We are saying Brady is better than Culpepper? News Flash: The entire free world, including every Dolphin fan with a functioning adult brain, thinks that Brady is better than Culpepper. I have never seen or heard anyone (except you) anywhere EVER say that Culpepper was a better quarterback. Don't think that we are being homers thinking that Brady is better than Culpepper. You are beyond homerism to even think that Culpepper is the better QB. Delusional comes to mind. Whacked might be a better word.

    Forget you silly arguments. You are playing games on paper again. Anythime you pull numbers to show that Culpepper or McNair or Kliff Kingsbury is better than Brady or Montana, you are missing the point. Numbers clearly showed Warner to be better than Brady in 2001 SB.

    It is true with all players that you cannot tell the best merely by looking at tackles, INTS, first downs, etc. But this is especially true of GQs.

    When you talk aobut numbers, you are not talking about a QB rating. It is called Passer Rating for a reason. It takes more than a good passer to be a good QB.

    Favre is still a superb passer, but he is not longer an elite QB. Manning always was a great passer. Everyone calls him a great QB, but I have me doubts.

    I don't know about Culpepper, if he is as good as his best year, or as bad as his last year. I suppose we will find out. But give the Culpepper-is-better-than-Brady stuff a rest. It makes you look foolish and desperate.
     
  18. Welker83

    Welker83 On the Game Day Roster

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    Weeks 1 through 8

    in losses anyone not named pep or Johnson averaged 3.34 YPC... every one overall averages 4.085 YPC


    in wins anyone not named pep or johnson averaged 3.63 YPC..everyone overall averages 6.76 YPC
     
  19. feelthepain

    feelthepain Banned

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    I could care less how it makes me look to a Pat fan, if you think Brady is the only QB in the division thats wishful thinking on your part. You can continue to live in the past if you like, but you're in for a rude awakening
     
  20. Krugman

    Krugman Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job

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    Interesting analysis,IMO Culpepper is an upgrade,my only concern (if I was a Finns fan)is him either taking a hit or blowing the knee on one of his scrambles,a guy his size puts a lot of strain on those knees when he is scrambling.
     

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