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Could Calvin Johnson be the key to the Patriots draft?

Discussion in 'Patriots Draft Talk' started by stinkypete, Apr 25, 2007.

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  1. stinkypete

    stinkypete In the Starting Line-Up

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    #24 Jersey

    Trade rumors are just that rumors. When it is rumored that the Pats are looking to trade out of round 1, I believe it, because every year we keep every option open in order to improve our team.

    Why are we more likely this year, and why is Johnson the key?

    In a draft low in top-shelf talent, some teams are desperate for a sure thing can't miss talent (read: Calvin Johnson). Denver, Tampa and Atlanta all seem to be willing to give their left nut to land Johnson. Detroit is all but begging to trade out of the #2 hole, but they need a substantial package; probably a top 10 pick (to get Adams, Landry or Willis) as well as a late 1st rounder (for the best of Beck, Kolb and Edwards).

    Denver is out, Detroit is not interested in picking at #21. It's too high for a 2nd teir QB, too low for an elite player. That leaves Atlanta and Tampa. Both have two 2nd round picks, including one each in the 33-41 range. Both should be willing to give up both (or a 2nd this year and a 1st next), if the compensation is right (say: #28 and maybe a mid-round depth pick).

    Who, then, is looking to pick in the early parts of round two? The players who seem best suited for the Pats: Harris, Woodley, Meriweather, Wilson, Leonard, McCauley, Poz, Weddle, etc., are all early 2nd round talents. We can move down and get a guy, if not "the guy," while picking up either additional top 100 depth or a early day 1 pick next year.

    I expect Tampa and Altanta, exhausting their efforts to trade directly with Detroit to land Johnson, will look to the Pats to pick up an extra #1, in order to then package with the Lions.
     
  2. patchick

    patchick Moderatrix Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Nifty reasoning. So lets say:

    New England send #28 to Atlanta for #39 and their 2008 #2.
    Atlanta sends #8 and #28 to Detroit for #2.

    By my WAG revised value chart, and projecting the 2008 #2 as equivalent to a mid-3 this year, the point values add up to...

    New England: sends 726, receives 700 (and transfers some value to next year when they get no comp picks)
    Atlanta: sends 2268, receives 2678
    Detroit: sends 2678, receives 2382

    I think this accurately reflects that it's not a terrific value for Detroit, but if it's the best they can get it's probably worth doing -- they could really use the extra #1.
     
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