Could Brandon Lloyd Be A Cap Casualty?

[MoLewisrocks]

As smart as this organization usually is, it's still had plenty of "WTH?" moments. This would be another one of them, particularly how reasonably priced a signing he was.

But how reasonably priced a signing was he for this organization where the most anyone ever makes if their initials are not TFB is $8M+. Is he half as valuable as Wilfork or Mankins or Mayo? Is he twice as valuable as Branch or Gaffney's production was in similar circumstances? Did he bridge the gap or put them over the top when Brady's two best weapons were taken away either via coverage or injury? Those are the questions the team is likely pondering. I'd bring him back but only on an incentived restructured deal that frees cap, and only if I didn't forsee a roster crunch in the process of retaining Welker and finding a bigger, faster, more physical middle deep threat in FA as well as adding a developmental WR to the mix and not a PS candidate) and retaining Edelman on a one year prove to me you can stay healthy deal and seeing how Demps plays out.

 

[Deus Irae]

But how reasonably priced a signing was he for this organization where the most anyone ever makes if their initials are not TFB is $8M+. Is he half as valuable as Wilfork or Mankins or Mayo? Is he twice as valuable as Branch or Gaffney's production was in similar circumstances?

No offense meant to you, because I know you're using the popular lingo, but I find the "percentage of value" argument to generally be worse than useless. I don't give a rat's ass if one player from group A is worth twice as much to a team as a player from group B, because that's irrelevant. What matters is where they fall in the payment hierachy of a particular group. Lloyd's money is fine for a WR signed under his circumstances. Hell, he was a steal.

Did he bridge the gap or put them over the top when Brady's two best weapons were taken away either via coverage or injury? Those are the questions the team is likely pondering. I'd bring him back but only on an incentived restructured deal that frees cap, and only if I didn't forsee a roster crunch in the process of retaining Welker and finding a bigger, faster, more physical middle deep threat in FA as well as adding a developmental WR to the mix and not a PS candidate) and retaining Edelman on a one year prove to me you can stay healthy deal and seeing how Demps plays out.

Lloyd would be a fool to accept your terms.

 

[Sicilian]

There would be some scenarios where cutting Lloyd after the season he had would make sense:

A) You're so tight against the cap that you have 0 maneuverability without making this cut. That's clearly not the case for the Pats.

B) His cap hit / cash value is so skewed over the top that it would be ridiculous to pay him for it. $5m for a 70+ catch 900+ yard receiver may not be ideal value to some, but it's hardly unheard of or ridiculous.

C) You have a glut of riches at his position that you can use the savings to shore up other areas and lose nothing at outside WR. Again, this clearly is NOT the case with the Patriots.

So, basically, there's no reason to cut him unless they hit multiple home runs on outside WR's through FA or the draft. Then I could see him gone if he's been pushed three deep on the depth chart. Even then though, it's unlikely unless they're hurting for cap space to make another move.

 

[jmt57]

Somebody correct me if I am wrong, but I think Derek's column (based on a Mike Reiss column) is looking at how much a player's cap will be, and not looking at how much cap savings there would be if the player is cut. Just because a player has a high cap figure that does not automatically make him a candidate to be a cap casualty.

NYJetsCap.com | Brandon Lloyd

While Lloyd's cap charge will be $4.5 million, that does not mean the Pats save that much by releasing him. Jason has him at negative $500k, though I am assuming that figure is based on Lloyd receiving the $3 million 2013 bonus. Even if the Pats cut him before then Lloyd would still cost the team the remainder of the original signing bonus ($2 million) on the cap. $4.5mm minus $2mm equals a cap savings of $2.5 million; that is the number which is important, not the $4.5 million.

Is it worth cutting Lloyd to save $2.5 million in cap space? No.

Would an owner intervene to save $3 million in cash? Some would, but Robert Kraft doesn't strike me as one that would do that; do we really think he would risk antagonizing Belichick over what is in reality a relatively minor amount of the company's annual budget?

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

it would be stupid to let him go with that we signed him for..he can still produce...

 

[Spiral]

Somebody correct me if I am wrong, but I think Derek's column (based on a Mike Reiss column) is looking at how much a player's cap will be, and not looking at how much cap savings there would be if the player is cut. Just because a player has a high cap figure that does not automatically make him a candidate to be a cap casualty.

NYJetsCap.com | Brandon Lloyd

While Lloyd's cap charge will be $4.5 million, that does not mean the Pats save that much by releasing him. Jason has him at negative $500k, though I am assuming that figure is based on Lloyd receiving the $3 million 2013 bonus. Even if the Pats cut him before then Lloyd would still cost the team the remainder of the original signing bonus ($2 million) on the cap. $4.5mm minus $2mm equals a cap savings of $2.5 million; that is the number which is important, not the $4.5 million.

Is it worth cutting Lloyd to save $2.5 million in cap space? No.

Would an owner intervene to save $3 million in cash? Some would, but Robert Kraft doesn't strike me as one that would do that; do we really think he would risk antagonizing Belichick over what is in reality a relatively minor amount of the company's annual budget?

I would look at it a different way. The unprorated amount of the signing bonus ($2M) is a sunk cost. That's going to hit your cap one way or the other, regardless of whether he stays or goes.

Would you improve the roster by cutting Lloyd and signing someone else to a deal that pays out $5M or so in new money in 2013? If the answer is yes, then you move on from Lloyd, regardless of your cap position this year or next.

 

[RIpats88]

The pats have been looking for Years to find a receiver to stretch the outside and actually GET the system...they finally have one for a Reasonable price

only on this forum is 70+ catches 900yards a mediocre season....and is $5million for that production "overpaying" so you save $2.5million but what WR are you goig to pick up for $2.5million that can give you a near 1000yd season?

I do agree we need another outside Threat "besides" lloyd but those are not cheap to come by...

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Somebody correct me if I am wrong, but I think Derek's column (based on a Mike Reiss column) is looking at how much a player's cap will be, and not looking at how much cap savings there would be if the player is cut. Just because a player has a high cap figure that does not automatically make him a candidate to be a cap casualty.

NYJetsCap.com | Brandon Lloyd

While Lloyd's cap charge will be $4.5 million, that does not mean the Pats save that much by releasing him. Jason has him at negative $500k, though I am assuming that figure is based on Lloyd receiving the $3 million 2013 bonus. Even if the Pats cut him before then Lloyd would still cost the team the remainder of the original signing bonus ($2 million) on the cap. $4.5mm minus $2mm equals a cap savings of $2.5 million; that is the number which is important, not the $4.5 million.

Is it worth cutting Lloyd to save $2.5 million in cap space? No.

Would an owner intervene to save $3 million in cash? Some would, but Robert Kraft doesn't strike me as one that would do that; do we really think he would risk antagonizing Belichick over what is in reality a relatively minor amount of the company's annual budget?

If they treat him as a June 1 cut, which they can do with 2 releases prior to June 1, that cap savings increases to $3.5M as the dead cap remains where it is at $1M per. It wouldn't be a case of an owner intervening. It would be Belichick's decision. He knows how much cash as well as cap exists in his budget. The only time Kraft enters the fray is when they are committing mega money to a player like Brady and even then it's mostly a courtesy. Bill can sign whomever he wants to whatever he wants. Kraft isn't ever out of pocket here. This team operates on it's net income from the football operations revenue stream.

If they pay him the option which can be assumed due in March then there is no way they cut him because his dead cap would then be $5M spread over 2 seasons and they'd have paid him $7M essentially for last season.

This team isn't against the cap, but neither was last seasons. Yet they did in fact approach their pro bowl RG for a $500K restructure that alienated him and they also forced Ocho to take a $2M haircut before cutting him anyway. They do however have things to deal with every season. If they hope to extend or replace in kind Welker, Vollmer and Talib (their own FA before considering any additions of talent via FA) they are looking at at least $12-13M in first year cap hits on very team friendly deals. They are into restructures or extensions to free up any more, and any more would amount to about another $12-13M. To cover the draftees and in season injury replacements and any FA additions they would hope to make plus they always prefer to have little someting to carryover in the $5M range if possible would eat that up in a heartbeat. They've already spent a little chunk of money on signings before FA even commences, including with a guy like Armstead getting almost $700K guaranteed. It goes quick. $3.5M can fill out the back end of the roster with multi unit ST stallwards.

 

[Rob0729]

But how reasonably priced a signing was he for this organization where the most anyone ever makes if their initials are not TFB is $8M+. Is he half as valuable as Wilfork or Mankins or Mayo? Is he twice as valuable as Branch or Gaffney's production was in similar circumstances? Did he bridge the gap or put them over the top when Brady's two best weapons were taken away either via coverage or injury? Those are the questions the team is likely pondering. I'd bring him back but only on an incentived restructured deal that frees cap, and only if I didn't forsee a roster crunch in the process of retaining Welker and finding a bigger, faster, more physical middle deep threat in FA as well as adding a developmental WR to the mix and not a PS candidate) and retaining Edelman on a one year prove to me you can stay healthy deal and seeing how Demps plays out.

Is he worth as much as Shaun Ellis (1 year, $5 million)? Deion Branch in 2010 ($3.8 million for 2/3 of a year)? Donte Stallworth in 2007 ($3.6 million for one year in 2007 cap and dollars) to be the #3 WR?

The Pats have allocated money to similar types of contract for less or equal production as what they would expect out of Lloyd next year.

The Pats might ask him to renegotiate or cut him for cap reasons, but there is no reason to believe that him playing out his contract next season without renegotiations is not a decent possibility.

I wouldn't be surprised if they ask him to redo his deal because they have the leverage and he is one of the few players who can rework their deal pretty easily to free cap space. But I don't know if that means they feel he isn't worth the spot or the money. Just that they know he has nowhere else to go and get more than the veteran minimum because of his reputation as a McDaniels creation and a problem when he isn't playing for McDaniels.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

No offense meant to you, because I know you're using the popular lingo, but I find the "percentage of value" argument to generally be worse than useless. I don't give a rat's ass if one player from group A is worth twice as much to a team as a player from group B, because that's irrelevant. What matters is where they fall in the payment hierachy of a particular group. Lloyd's money is fine for a WR signed under his circumstances. Hell, he was a steal.



Lloyd would be a fool to accept your terms.

Not necessarily. Who else is going to give him a 2 year $8M deal? The only success he's ever known in ten seasons is with McDaniels and in this system. There is no one else even running it next season it except us. When Branch came here he had to agree to put almost $3M in final season salary into incentives so he'd hit the cap at $2M+ over 2 years to fill the role that Lloyd has now been signed to. He totaled fewer yards on fewer catches, but his YPC was better and he scored more TD's for half as much cap. We are in a flat cap environment over the nedt couple of seasons and teams will be approaching lots of guys whose cap hit is increasing dramatically. Lloyd's is more than doubling.

 

[Deus Irae]

Not necessarily. Who else is going to give him a 2 year $8M deal?

If they're carving him back this year, he'll know that next year is.... next. If they pull that crap after this year, he'd be foolish to trust them moving forward.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

If they're carving him back this year, he'll know that next year is.... next. If they pull that crap after this year, he'd be foolish to trust them moving forward.

Welcome to the NFL. It is what it is. That's why Willie left. Drew a line in the sand after multiple restructures that included losing $$$. So they just released him. But he knew he had a landing spot worth $9M over 3. I doubt Lloyd has that, although if Josh were to leave again he might still... It's the business end of the business of football. Be seeing lots of guys get cut, restructured, and offered take it or leave it deals over the next month across the league as teams get ready for 2013. Unless you know you have options or the team believes you might, lots of older and mid level talent is forced to take it.

 

[WhiZa]

Lloyd's not getting cut. He carries too much dead money so it just makes more sense to leave him on the team. That and he's our best WR at the moment.

 

[Fencer]

New money is the issue, not cap juggling. Either they think he's worth the new money or they don't.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Lloyd never seems to get good separation on a consistant basis.
I don't know if he will be a cap casualty because there is no one to
replace him. The Patriots will not pay the going rate for a good wide
receiver and haven't developed a draft choice since Deon Branch.

Lloyd has never been a burner who consistently beats his man by over a step. Either:

A) the Patriots already knew that, and didn't expect that of him, or
B) the Patriots watched literally no game film before signing him, and did not consult their own offensive coordinator on what type of player he is.

I'm going to go with A. There's absolutely no reason to cut Lloyd. He's a good player, he was valuable to the offense, he's signed at a below-market rate, and cutting him would actually cost money against the cap ($500K).

Again, and I can't reiterate this enough, there is literally no good reason to cut Lloyd, unless the Pats feel that they can get better production for so cheap that they'll take a $500K cap hit just to see him out the door. It makes no sense, and we really shouldn't even be entertaining this conversation.