Could BB be thinking 1st Round QB in 2011?

[HarkDawg]

Expect a OL or DE to be our 1st round pick.

 

[mayoclinic]

Mayo—personally, I think it's possible if and only if the NFL institutes a rookie pay scale before the draft.

As a said in an earlier post on this thread, I wouldn't expect BB to actually use a top 10 pick unless there is a rookie pay scale in place - he would trade back, as he did in 2008. But I think there's about a 50% chance that there will be such a scale.

I have no clue what he'll do in 2010, much less 2011. But I'm sure the Pats will do diligence scouting a wide variety of prospects, including some of the top WRs. That's all.

 

[Synovia]

Doubtful IMO. This is all about value.

Good chance we aren't even going to be taking a player with that pick.

Good chance? When is the last time Bellichick had a pick in the top 10 and didn't take a player in the top 10?

 

[Synovia]

RE: Seymour being a leader:

Mayo, Wilfork, and Warren disagree.

Then why was he never elected a captain, when all three of those players were?

 

[HarkDawg]

AS STATED before

Expect a OL or DE to be our 1st round pick.

 

[Synovia]

You can't say "Belichick doesn't draft (insert position here)."

I agre. Saying that is absolutely stupid. You get 1 1st rounder a year, and there are roughly 20 staring positions on a football field. If he still hasn't drafted a WR in the first round by roughly 2040, we can say he doesn't draft WRs in the first round.

 

[BradyManny]

I agre. Saying that is absolutely stupid. You get 1 1st rounder a year, and there are roughly 20 staring positions on a football field. If he still hasn't drafted a WR in the first round by roughly 2040, we can say he doesn't draft WRs in the first round.

Sure. But first round QBs probably have the highest bust factor of any position and Belichick has found two stars in the 6th & 7th round. If I were Belichick, I'd stick to the late rounds.

 

[BradyManny]

The other thing is we're all assuming this will be a top 5 pick, yet the Raiders have a legitimate defense this year. Especially if they extend Seymour, they will have a good group next year as well. Playing in a putrid division, they could be OK.

 

[jmt57]

Expect a OL or DE to be our 1st round pick.

I agree, that would be my guess as well.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

I expect BB to take Tebow in this year's draft with one o fhte three second rounders.

I expect agents to use the threat of a rookie cap to get a lot of juniors to declare.

If the 2011 draft does not have a lot of juniors declare, then it could be the weakest draft in recent history.

I fully expect BB will do as he did when he had San Frans #1 and let the draft come to him.

 

[JoeSixPat]

Yes, they were basing a huge trade off of possibility of a particular sophomore QB (now junior) would be available as a "high pick" in 2011.

Has BB ever even used highly drafted QBs? Other than Testaverde who was pretty mediocre.

I don't think Belichick has felt too too much pressure to use a 1st round pick during the Brady years... I'd say there's just not a track record period

Brady was a fluke - no one thought they were picking a franchise QB in the 6th round - nor would anyone make the case that Belichick would expect to find his next franchise QB late in the draft.

Heck - he just used a 3rd round pick on a QB and cut him.

It's just such a rarity that Belichick would have a need for a QB a few years down the road AND have the ability to have, or trade up for, the #1 pick in the draft in a year when the salary for a #1 pick would be more reasonable than it ever has been before.

I do expect that Belichick would want to give his next QB at least a year - maybe 2 - to learn behind Brady... so the question becomes when that happens and where Brady's health and skills are in 2011 at age 34 - and no one knows the answer to that question.

As noted I think its highly unlikely that Brady wouldn't still be a very good if not great QB at age 34 - but that IS when the skills of many QBs begin to decline - and age 36 (2013 - when a QB taken in the 2011 draft will have had 2 years to learn the system) is very possibly an age when the Patriots might decide to go in a different direction (and no, I don't rule out trading Brady himself in the right situation when he's 36 years old... someone might well give a #1 pick for him even at age 36.)

Expecting Brady to be playing at the top of his game in 2016 at age 39 as some here have suggested? Hey I hope it happens, but I hardly think Belichick is banking on that and wouldn't plan on waiting that long to find his next QB... if a Brady contract went through 2016 that would be a contract that the Pats could get out of at that point - effectively a contract that long for salary cap purposes only.

 

[farn]

I'm just glad we're finally "officially" getting the pick... was worried something crazy was gonna go down instead with all the "Seymour's angry" news. I worry too much. Maybe I should go fix myself a Capt 'n Coke and watch the soothing motions of the Belestrator.

 

[mgteich]

1) I expect a rookie scale that would end up with players after the top 15 costing more and the top 6 costing considerably less.

2) The general issue for me is which positions provide the most value in the early part of the draft and which positions are better filled later in the draft or free agency. This somewhat depends on the draft, but for me, not all that much. Personally, I believe that the mid-first round 6-25 is best used for front seven players, and best for defensive linemen. I am also a fan of draft offensive lineman if the value is there. A top 10 corner can sometimes be found. For me, draft a wide receiver early is always a huge risk. So is drafting a running back or a tight end.

Since we are usually talking value more than need, I would restate as follows:
"I expect that the most value in the 6-25 range to come from DL's, OL's, LB's and an occasional corner"

This last draft was good that Belichick was able to get these prime positions in the second: DL, CB and OT.

3) And just BTW, I don't expect Oakland to be a top 6 pick. Heck, most folks are expecting them to start their winning ways THIS WEEK.

I don't expect BB will drop 30M on a rookie, period. Half of the speculation - and this far out that's all it can possibly be, speculation - is that by 2011 there may be a rookie salary scale such as the NBA uses, to deal with the ludicrous current situation where top 10 draft picks are albatrosses around the necks of the teams picking at the top of the draft. Otherwise, if BB does end up with a high pick as a result of the Oakland trade, I would expect him to trade out if possible (which he could easily do, anyway).

If there's a rookie salary scale, then the cost of making a mistake using a high pick on a WR doesn't become as prohibitive as previously. Many on this board have speculated about "what if" we could have gotten a Calvin Johnson, Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, etc. Heck, there's a thread right now about whether we could possibly trade for Michael Crabtree.

BB's used 2nd round picks 3 times on WRs (Branch, Johnson, Jackson), and traded another 2nd round pick for one (Welker). He's traded up to target WRs. He's traded for WRs. No reason to believe he doesn't value the WR position enough to spend a top pick on one if he thought the player was worth it. If having Randy Moss play for the Pats hasn't been enough to convince him of the value of having an "elite" WR for Brady to throw to, then nothing will. He hadn't used a high pick to target a LB before Mayo, but that didn't stop him.

So all I did was post a 1 line post mentioning 2 young guys with elite talent who are coming out in 2011 when we happen to have an extra (possibly high) 1st round pick and around the time when we should be looking at grooming a successor to Moss. The result of which was (1) a smart ass post by you about high school kids for 2016, and (2) a second smart ass post from you to the effect that we would never draft a WR in the first round.

Thanks for educating me.

 

[mayoclinic]

1) I expect a rookie scale that would end up with players after the top 15 costing more and the top 6 costing considerably less.

2) The general issue for me is which positions provide the most value in the early part of the draft and which positions are better filled later in the draft or free agency. This somewhat depends on the draft, but for me, not all that much. Personally, I believe that the mid-first round 6-25 is best used for front seven players, and best for defensive linemen. I am also a fan of draft offensive lineman if the value is there. A top 10 corner can sometimes be found. For me, draft a wide receiver early is always a huge risk. So is drafting a running back or a tight end.

Since we are usually talking value more than need, I would restate as follows:
"I expect that the most value in the 6-25 range to come from DL's, OL's, LB's and an occasional corner"

This last draft was good that Belichick was able to get these prime positions in the second: DL, CB and OT.

3) And just BTW, I don't expect Oakland to be a top 6 pick. Heck, most folks are expecting them to start their winning ways THIS WEEK.

I agree with point #1. Regarding point #2, I agree in general, but I don't think we should rule out anything at this point. If BB believes the next Randy Moss is available, I would expect him to give that player a serious look. Both Green and Jones are in the SEC, and I'm sure BB will get a fair amount of input from Urban Meyer and Nick Saban. I lineman is more likely with a high pick, but I wouldn't rule anything out.

Regarding point #3, who knows? Seymour made their defense look much better against SD but they still lost, and we don't know yet whether he will stay beyond this year. Oakland has picked in the top 7 for the last 6 years, so they need to prove to me that they're better than that. They could be better this year, and self-destruct by next year. With that dysfunctional organization, anything's possible.

 

[mgteich]

Sure, anyone would use any pick in the draft for the next Randy Moss. Is that Crabtree? If not who? How about Heyward-Bey? The problem is that no one can tell. And certainly Belichick is not the best judge of wide receivers in the NFL. If we really needed a wide receiver and decided to use the draft, I would draft two and hope to get one. IMHO, it is a crapshoot drafting a wide receiver, perhaps more than at any other position.

In the end, you certainly could be right about oakland. However, I have no doubt that Belichick will get value for the pick, whether it as 6, 16 or 26.

I agree with point #1. Regarding point #2, I agree in general, but I don't think we should rule out anything at this point. If BB believes the next Randy Moss is available, I would expect him to give that player a serious look. Both Green and Jones are in the SEC, and I'm sure BB will get a fair amount of input from Urban Meyer and Nick Saban. I lineman is more likely with a high pick, but I wouldn't rule anything out.

Regarding point #3, who knows? Seymour made their defense look much better against SD but they still lost, and we don't know yet whether he will stay beyond this year. Oakland has picked in the top 7 for the last 6 years, so they need to prove to me that they're better than that. They could be better this year, and self-destruct by next year. With that dysfunctional organization, anything's possible.