Corey Dillon...mixed signals

[MagicMarker]

Today in Gary Horton's chat wrap on ESPN:

"Ryan (Maple Grove): Ahman Green or Corey Dillon? Who has more left in the tank?

Gary Horton: I don't think there's any question, if he's healthy, that Green has more left in the tank. To me, Dillon looks like a power back that's lost all his speed and explosiveness and has marginal big play capabilities. While Green still has speed and to get on the second level and make plays."

Horton seems to think Dillon is about done. We also drafted his replacement in the first round of this year's draft.

However, there is one BIG signal that the Patriots don't think he's done....even with a huge amount of cap space, we guaranteed part of his salary and pushed his cap hit farther in the future. That made no sense to me -- even if he's not nearly finished -- but especially if he is.

Do you all think he's done? I should start the poll question -- will Corey Dillon become the third Patriot to rush for over 1000 yards twice?

 

[PonyExpress]

Dillon is not done at all. These are the same people who think Miami has overtaken the Pats, that the Pats are on the decline. etc. They suffer from a common affliction known as "wishful thinking": They Want the Pats to be done, they want Dillon to be finished, that want Miami to be better... Well, reality doesn't work that way. I think Dillon can be a lead back for one more year, and then a goal line short yardage #2 back for two more years, a la George Rogers and OJ Anderson in the late 80s. I see him getting at least 200 carries this year, and probably 800 yards and 10 TDs, then cut that in half over the next two years, assuming he redoes his contract.

 

[teamplay]

I think Dillon can be a lead back for one more year, and then a goal line short yardage #2 back for two more years, a la George Rogers and OJ Anderson in the late 80s. I see him getting at least 200 carries this year, and probably 800 yards and 10 TDs, then cut that in half over the next two years, assuming he redoes his contract.

sounds right to me!!!

 

[BelichickFan]

I think the main difference is that Green had an injury he couldn't play through whereas Dillon had one he could play through, just not at 100%.

I don't think the Patriots think Dillon is done. In addition to your reason, with all the RB on the market I doubt they'd have waited until the draft to get a replacement if Dillon were done. I'll admit to being uncertain about him but I think the Patriots probably think that he's, worst case, an average power back who can get them through a couple of years. But the chance to add the back of the future who can also spell Dillon 1/3 or more of the time had to be appealing.

 

[Pats726]

I think he's all wet...Dillon was injured most of the year with a FEW injuried and gutted it out...Gee, I think with injuries maANY backs might look like they have lost a bit of speed and explosiveness...Dillon has some time left!!

 

[JoeSixPat]

I think he's all wet...Dillon was injured most of the year with a FEW injuried and gutted it out...Gee, I think with injuries maANY backs might look like they have lost a bit of speed and explosiveness...Dillon has some time left!!

The Patriots are ALWAYS closed lipped about injured players - and the players often HATE that especially when it generates the type of talk we've seen like that.

Even many Patriots fans don't know or don't acknowledge that he played at less than 100%. So its not surprising when someone who hasn't followed the team closely and wants to pretend they know what they are talking about spews out some verbiage that fails to recognize that last season was effectively lost to injury.

They might even read more into the selection of Maroney in the draft than they should.

No question, one of these days Dillon IS going to slow down - but one certainly can't determine that by looking at an injury plauged 2005 season.

 

[dryheat44]

I think the main difference is that Green had an injury he couldn't play through whereas Dillon had one he could play through, just not at 100%.

Stated perfectly. The fact is that Green has a serious rehabbing to do, and almost certainly won't be the same player he was. Dillon's nagging foot injuries last year shouldn't prevent him from having at least one more excellent season.

What kind of specious reasoning says that the guy who had injuries he could play through is less likely to return to form than the guy who needed major surgery?

 

[PlattsFan]

I doubt Corey's done, but we really don't know. He's a big back that's taken a lot of punishment over his career, and sometimes those guys fall off really quickly. Still, though, he was great in '04 and hurt in '05. Personally, I think the 800 yard projection above makes a lot of sense; I see a primary back role for Dillon, but not an exclusive one. I think he gets rotated with Maroney, with Faulk in his usual third-down role. 800 yards isn't really all that much, and is consistent with a view of Corey as a declining, but still productive, back.

The big point for the team, however, is that the success of the Pats isn't dependent on Corey's readiness. If he has fallen off the cliff, the Patriots have a very promising rookie to back him up. And rookie running backs can often jump right in and play well, unlike some other positions (WR, for instance) where rookies often struggle.

The Pats made a great pick in Maroney, I think, really setting them up offensively for this year.

 

[TNPatsFan]

Hello, long-time reader, first-time poster here.

I just read the chat transcript with the Green vs. Dillon comment that you are talking about. I usually like Horton's chats but he comes across very uneducated about the Pats and football in general in this particular chat. (Later in the chat he says he thinks Pete Carroll can be a great NFL coach)

I believe Dillon will be fine this year. He, as well as the O-Line, had injury problems last year. Having a bum ankle will make you look slow. With better health and a better O-Line, he'll be back over 1000 yards.

 

[shakadave]

Do you all think he's done? I should start the poll question -- will Corey Dillon become the third Patriot to rush for over 1000 yards twice?

Maybe he's done, maybe he's not, but I want to at least raise the point that he can rush for 1000 yards this year and still be done.

1000 yards is the most overrated milestone in sports. 90% of fans failed to mentally update this target when the league moved from a 14- to a 16-game schedule. 1200+ yards is almost always a sign of a good season. But very often backs who run for 1050 in 16 games (say by averaging 66 yards on 20 carries) are mediocre and have had forgettable seasons.

 

[patsox23]

I believe Dillon will be fine this year. He, as well as the O-Line, had injury problems last year. Having a bum ankle will make you look slow. With better health and a better O-Line, he'll be back over 1000 yards.

TNPatsfan - Welcome aboard and GREAT first post! I agree - Corey played with a high ankle sprain for most of 2005. He sounds pretty damn motivated to come back and show people he is, in fact, NOT done. I think he will and that the Patriots have timed out the transition from Dillon to Maroney admirably.

 

[RayClay]

It's as simple as this. A running back can't run on two bad legs.

He gained over 700 yards mostly on 1 leg.

For Comparison that's more than Faulks best season when he was our top RB and Smith's 3rd season as our top RB.

If he's healed, no reason to believe he can't be fine. Less load with Maroney so he doesn't have to play through injuries also.

His career year was two years ago.

 

[PATSNUTme]

It is NOW known to most people that Corey had a serious high ankle sprain since game three of last year . He tried to give the impression that he was alright but in fact, he wasn't.

Tom Curran and others noticed that Corey was having trouble going to his left. I'm sure that this was picked up by other teams DC's and they compensated on D when he went to the right.

This has been stated on this board by others who watched tapes of last years games and noticed the same thing.

I do think Corey has another good year or two left and if Maroney is the real deal, that can only help Corey out. It wil also be a big help to Brady selling the play action.

 

[roguepatriot]

Personally, I think Corey might have one good year left and then might become like Jerome Bettis. Hopefully he is happy to take a pay-cut at some point and remain a patriot

 

[rookBoston]

They said the same thing about Antowain Smith in 2000... does he have anything left? Well, it's 2005 and he's still in the league.

 

[Kdo5]

No he isnt. The combination of injured Corey, and an injured, changing O-line were main reasons why he had a very tough season/ Now hes gonna be splitting balls with Faulk and some to Maroney, he wont get 1600 again in his career, but I see him at 1200 next year considering all the things that went wrong this year dont go wrong again. If Corey can get it going on the ground, the Pats have a GREAT chance at making the Superbowl. Brady dealt with pressure very impressively last year but with Dillon running well and having a very good solid o-line, Brady would look even better the times he does throw the ball.

 

[fgssand]

TNPatsfan - Welcome aboard and GREAT first post! I agree - Corey played with a high ankle sprain for most of 2005. He sounds pretty damn motivated to come back and show people he is, in fact, NOT done. I think he will and that the Patriots have timed out the transition from Dillon to Maroney admirably.

And you know this how??

What really prove sit is what the Patriots actually do - as stated: "However, there is one BIG signal that the Patriots don't think he's done....even with a huge amount of cap space, we guaranteed part of his salary and pushed his cap hit farther in the future. That made no sense to me -- even if he's not nearly finished -- but especially if he is."

That, and not your "I think" is what I find meaningful.

 

[PowerAlley.com]

I think we will have THUNDER AND LIGHTNING in 2006. Corey will be the bull, and Maroney the sprinter.

Mike

 

[BelichickFan]

I think we will have THUNDER AND LIGHTNING in 2006. Corey will be the bull, and Maroney the sprinter.

And toss in a little Brady . . . good OL play will make this offense VERY interesting.