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Core defensive roster spots

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by mgteich, Jun 21, 2010.

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  1. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    We only need 21 players to play defense at most. The rest are special teamers. Even among the 21, many who play lots of special teams.

    DEFENSE (25)
    DL 6
    OLB 4
    ILB 3
    CB 5 (my minimum in this passing league; cb's do get injured a lot)
    S 3
    ST 4

    My roster has four defensive STers: Woods, McKenzie, Arrington, and Chung. I also have offensive STer's Tate and Aiken.
  2. supafly

    supafly PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    So I take it you didn't give much thought to Breer's latest 53?

    FWIW, he has 7 DL (he agrees w/ me, not the other way around;) )
    5 OLB
    4 ILB
    5 CB
    4 S

    Total of 25 defensive players. Doesn't give much to the way of special teamers at all.

    ------------

    I'd take away an OLB from his guess (due to Guyton's slight versatility in the sense of emergency only, although none of us want him at OLB), to free up Slater or Aiken, who are both unlikely to make the 53 IMO. There's also the outside possibility that our LS could come from within too, freeing up 1 more 'only ST' spot. It'll be interesting to see how it turns out. FWIW--I am guessing it'll be somewhere between yours (4 ST) and Breer's, in regards to ONLY special teams positions. I will 'guess' at 2.
    Last edited: Jun 21, 2010
  3. supafly

    supafly PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    I actually thought that Breer would've elaborated a bit on his special teams predictions, but I didn't see anything in his past 2 'way too early' attempts.

    I am guessing that we will see a bit more of the rookies, + guys that didn't play last year like Mckenzie and Tate. It'll be great to see Belichick's take on the final 53, as competition is certainly at a premium.

    Regardless, I really enjoy the roster prediction talk. There are so many different options, and everyone will always have a different 53 it seems, but I just love all of the possibilities.

    Offense

    2 QB
    4 RB
    6 WR
    3 TE
    9 OL

    24 total

    Defense

    7 DL
    4 ILB
    4 OLB
    5 CB
    4 S

    24 total

    P, K, LS + 2 primary special team positions = my personal 53
    Last edited: Jun 21, 2010
  4. TheComeback

    TheComeback Rookie

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    OFFENSE (25)

    QB - Brady, Hoyer

    HB - Morris, Maroney, Taylor, Faulk, Green-Ellis

    WR - Moss, Welker, Edelman, Tate, Price, Aiken

    TE - Crumpler, Gronkowski, Hernandez

    T - Light, Vollmer, LeVoir, Kaczur

    G/C - Neal, Koppen, Connolly, Bussey, Larsen

    DEFENSE (25)

    NT/DT - Wilfork, Brace, Pryor

    DE - T. Warren, G. Warren, Wright, Lewis, Deaderick

    OLB - Banta-Cain, Ninkovich, Murrell, Cunningham

    ILB - Mayo, Guyton, Spikes, McKenzie

    CB - Bodden, Butler, McCourty, Wilhite, Arrington

    S - Meriweather, Sanders, Chung, McGowan

    SPECIAL TEAMS (3)

    K - Gostkowski

    P - Mesko

    LS - Ingram

    ----------------------------------------------

    I have Murrell over Woods, but I'd like to see another linebacker make the roster over Wheatley. That would most likely be Thomas Williams.

    Wheatley only makes it here because of the potential he showed as a rookie and the fact that he's now a veteran in the Pats' system. But I think the linebackers could use an extra body after giving so many games away in the 4th quarter.

    EDIT: Forgot about Pryor. I put him in over Wheatley, giving the Pats 8 DL and 5 CBs. I still wouldn't mind an extra DB on the roster.
    Last edited: Jun 21, 2010
  5. supafly

    supafly PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    This is why I like the roster threads so much, because there are just so many different options and opinions, none of which are wrong or right.

    Some interesting notes:

    --you have the 5th RB in BJGE (debatable again this yr) it could even be that BJGE makes it and they still keep 4, thus dropping either Morris or Taylor

    --you have 8 DL wheras most have 6, I actually have 7 (at least 1 will go)

    --you don't have either Holt or Patten at WR, choosing Aiken instead (although this will help the ST case, it's also debatable of course)

    --you have neither Burgess, Woods, nor Crable at OLB (at the very least Burgess sticks, if not one of Woods/Crable) there also could be 5 OLB

    --you chose Arrington for ST presence at CB, instead of Wheatley (I actually agree if there's only 5, there could be 6)

    --you don't have any 'just ST alone' guys, where I had 2

    -------

    Again, there's no right or wrong, just pointing out the debates.

    I would argue that there certainly will not be 8 DL, that Burgess definately makes it at OLB, and that either Holt or Patten makes it at WR. I will also argue that there will be at least 1 or 2 'ST only' guys.
  6. patriotscpfc

    patriotscpfc Rookie

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    I'll give you mine:
    QB: Brady, Hoyer
    RB: Maroney, Faulk, Morris, Green-Ellis
    WR: Moss, Welker, Edelman, Tate, Holt, Price, Slater
    TE: Gronk, Hernandez, Crumpler
    OT: Vollmer, Light, Kaczur, LeVoir
    OG/C: Neal, Koppen, Connelly, Larsen, Bussey
    25

    DE: Warren, Warren, Wright, Lewis,
    DT: Wilfork, Brace, Pryor
    ILB: Mayo, Guyton, McKenzie, Spikes, Williams
    OLB: Burgess, Banta-Cain, Cunningham, Ninkovich,
    CB: Bodden, Butler, McCourty, Wilhite, Arrington,
    S: Meriweather, Sanders, Chung, McGowan

    ST: Gostkowski, Mesko, Ingram

    For me, I go Slater ahead of Aiken. I go Williams ahead of Woods as he'd have the potential to play FB and that would mean Connelly wouldn't be at risk from injury playing as FB. Lewis ahead of Deaderick. If Welker is PUP'ed, then I take Woods.
  7. supafly

    supafly PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    Good to see some others on board to the 7 DL thought.

    T.Warren
    Wilfork
    Wright
    Pryor
    Brace
    -----these 5 are locks-----

    then I have 2 of the next 4:

    G.Warren (playing w/ the ones in OTA's)
    Lewis (steady player who never misses games)
    Deadrick
    Experienced vet/cut pickup/JAG

    equaling 7 also
  8. patriotscpfc

    patriotscpfc Rookie

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    I think it's important to have 7.

    Ty hasn't been the healthiest guy the last few years. Lewis and Pryor offer something different to Wright.

    Gerard Warren is running with the starters, but lets see him in gametime.

    And then there is Brace. Lets see what he shows this season.
  9. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I have have commented on Breer's 53 in the other thread.
    ====================================
    SPECIAL TEAMS
    Do you like his approach of considering special teamers not worthy of discussion?

    The reality is that several players will be our starting special teamers and several players will make the team to play special teams.

    There is no reason to carry 4 ILB's, 5 OLB's or 4 safeties unless they are top special teamers.

    Curiously, Breer has the same defensive special teamers as I listed: Arrington, Woods, McKenzie and McGowan.

    DEFENSIVE LINE
    I see no reason to carry more the six "pure" defensive linemen, given that Burgess is almost always a lineman and Banta-Cain often is. You seem to want a 7th DL AND a 4th ILB. We certainly don't need both.

    CORNERS
    You seem to think that Arrington is ready for full-time duty as a corner. I don't.



  10. FredFromDartmouth

    FredFromDartmouth Rookie

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    Too thin at CB. Wheatley sticks or maybe Wheatley instead of Wilhite or Arrington. If Wheatley comes around and plays to his potential this could be a great group.
  11. AzPatsFan

    AzPatsFan Rookie

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    I do not consider Chung and McKenzie STs players and even Woods although a superb ST player can play OLB as well to a degree. The last position goes to a DL.

    Aiken is a ST player; and the 6th WR. Tate can be a ST return star, but he will be in the WR mix no deeper than 4th. The day of the ST only player outside of LS, P and K is about over in Foxboro.

    You can count them as you wish but it will nominally be
    DL 7
    OLB 5
    ILB 4
    CB 5
    S 4
    ST 1

    Of those players there are players who also play ST from the defensive squad as follows;
    DL 2 Wright Pryor
    OLB 4 Woods, Ninkovich, Crable and Cunningham
    ILB 2 Guyton McKenzie
    CB 4 Wheately Willhite, McCourty Butler (returner)
    S 4 Mcgowan, Chung, Meriwether Sanders
    Last edited: Jun 21, 2010
  12. Sciz

    Sciz PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    IMO:
    Offense: 24 (Welker on PUP, Aiken makes the roster, BJGE is cut)
    DL: 7 (5 DEs, 2 NTs)
    OLB: 4 (TBC, Nink, Burgess, Cunningham)
    ILB: 5 (Mayo, Spikes, Guyton, McKenzie, Williams)
    CB: 6 (Bodden, Butler, McCourty, Wilhite, Wheatley, Arrington)
    S: 4 (Meriweather, Chung, Sanders, McGowan)

    That's 53 on the roster, and includes STers like Aiken, Nink, Guyton, McKenzie, Williams, McCourty, Arrington, and McGowan. Is that sufficient?
  13. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I agree that Wheatley sticks. However, there is no reason to believe that Wilhite, sometime starter in 2009, is through.

  14. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    If Welker is on PUP and BJGE off the roster, then I have only one objection to your roster.
    =====================
    I don't think that Williams is beating out Woods as a special teams player and as a backup linebacker.

    I've been following this team for 30 years and I don't ever remember a team with five inside linebackers. Williams will likely be on the Practice Squad again. I think that we only need three ILB's and can carry four if one is a special teamer.

    I don't think that we should be releasing Woods without a replacement. We need to replace Thomas as it is.

  15. Deus Irae

    Deus Irae PatsFans.com Retired Jersey Club PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Disable Jersey

    Mayo is staying. So, McKenzie, Spikes or Guyton... who's getting the axe?
  16. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    None are necessarily getting the axe. I expect that at least one will be a regular on lots of special teams. I indicated that we NEEDED three ILB's. We can certainly carry four as long as there is special teams help there.

    My personal expectation is that Spikes will start, and that Guyton will be a pass-situation and special teams specialist. That could be a fairly solid 3-man rotation.

    With regard to McKenzie, I just don't know. He could start. He could be a role player. He could lose his roster spot to Williams or Murrell or Alexander or even Slater.

  17. AndyJohnson

    AndyJohnson PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I dont know why everyone considers Pryor a lock.
    I think he was a surprise to make the team last year, and will be equally a surprise to stick this year when there is more competition for jobs.
  18. AndyJohnson

    AndyJohnson PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    We NEED 4 safeites.
    Yes one can be a st demon who rarely plays on D, but our special teams essentially require DBs to play some of the positions, and safeties more than corners. We have to have at least 9 DBs, and 6 corners with 3 safeties won't happen.
  19. supafly

    supafly PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    mg, I think some of your questions may be answered in my next post, the one after the post you quoted. FWIW--I certainly agree that IF it comes down to a choice between DL and CB, I'd rather have 6 CB also, like you stated. It's possible the 6th CB will even come from another position that BB sees fit. That's the great thing about 53 man predictor threads, no one is right or wrong, yet all have a different view to some degree.

    We'll surely have 4 ILB and 4 S (IMO). Whether we have 6 or 7 DL remains to be seen of course, I will agree that I am going out on a limb by predicting 7, although I was a bit surprised by the number of posters who agree with me.

    I am predicting 2 'ST only' players, I believe we have a number of great options with our 1st and 2nd yr starters + vet ST players, that a roster spot is too valuable to waste for more than 2-3 ST only players (besides K,P,LS).
    -----

    AzPatsFan sees it almost exactly the same way as I stated, and here are some of his respective thoughts on defensive ST:

    "You can count them as you wish but it will nominally be
    DL 7
    OLB 5
    ILB 4
    CB 5
    S 4
    ST 1

    Of those players there are players who also play ST from the defensive squad as follows;
    DL 2 Wright Pryor
    OLB 4 Woods, Ninkovich, Crable and Cunningham
    ILB 2 Guyton McKenzie
    CB 4 Wheately Willhite, McCourty Butler (returner)
    S 4 Mcgowan, Chung, Meriwether Sanders "
  20. supafly

    supafly PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    I think Mayo and Guyton remain the main starters, with Spikes rotated in sufficiently throughout the season on different looks. McKenzie will be the only ILB remaining if and when one of them gets dinged up, or misses a few games. Not to mention that McKenzie is a high rd pick (3rd rd), and isn't going anywhere his first year playing.

    you said we can carry 4 IF one is a ST. At least 2, if not 3, can play ST.

    ----

    The exact same scenario goes with safeties. With 2 starting, another coming in on rotational duty or big nickle schemes, that only leaves 1 safety left in case someone goes down or misses a couple games. It's also another position where we'll have almost everyone that can play ST. Actually, all 4 could.
    ----

    That is my reasoning for 4 ILB and 4 S. It allows for obvious starters, rotational guys getting reps, specific schemes such as big nickle, and each position allows for a guy to come off the bench when someone goes down. They also cover ST quite sufficiently.
  21. FredFromDartmouth

    FredFromDartmouth Rookie

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    I don't know how but you gotta keep all these guys....
  22. TheComeback

    TheComeback Rookie

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    I could see that happening as well. When healthy, I think Morris hits the hole harder than any of our other backs. Taylor might be close to the end, but if not, he could help the team a lot too.

    I do have 8 DL, but I could see Deaderick starting the season on the practice squad. The only problem with that is he might be claimed on a waiver, and I don't think the team wants to cut Pryor or Brace, who are young and still have undeveloped potential.

    It's possible that Gerard Warren, Mike Wright, or Lewis could be cut to make room for younger players, but i still think all three of those guys could help the team.

    Injury and fatigue were major factors in the decline of the defensive line late in the season last year. Plus, all of these guys offer production in one aspect of the game or another. DL is one of the most important areas for depth on any team.

    Holt or Patten might have a case to make the roster if Welker starts the season on the PUP, but after that I have a hard time believing the Pats will keep a 6th pure receiver on the roster. Just based on minicamp reports (which don't mean much), it sounds unlikely that Price or Tate would be cut. The team seems to be going with a youth movement again this year.

    Neither Holt or Patten can replace Aiken's special teams production. I don't think the Pats want to lose a good ST ace, as that area of the game was a weak point for them last year.

    I guess I wasn't thinking clearly when I wrote my post, as I completely forgot about the re-signing of Burgess. I could definitely see them going with 5 OLBs, possibly sending Deaderick to the practice squad or outright cutting Mike Wright. This is another area where the Pats need depth; in a few games last year the linebackers (and defensive line) appeared to wear down late in games.

    I could see 6 DBs, but I'm not sure who would I'd cut to make room for Wheatley. If Arrington can cover in addition to his special teams play (he certainly has athletic ability), then Wheatley might have a hard time making the team.

    True, but Arrington and Murrell are at this time pure ST players. In this roster I'm hoping for more defensive production from Murrell.
  23. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I don't think that we NEED four safeties. With two injuries, one of our corners can play safety. We NEED five corners and three safeties. And even at that, only 7 are needed in any given game.

    THAT BEING SAID, we have almost always carried a fourth safety, understanding that he would be primarily a special teamer. All of our safeties are top special teamers.

    I listed Arrington and CHung on the roster as top special teamers. I expect us to carry ten defensive backs, six corners and four safeties. In the end, I would rather lose McGowan that one of the six corners.


  24. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I agree. I would be fine with two out of Lewis, G. Warren and Deaderick, to add to
    Warren, Wilfork, Wright, and Brace.

  25. supafly

    supafly PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    Respectfully disagree here, although you certainly have a point about wanting to keep 6 DB's. I hope that we actually do keep 6 DB's, but I do not want the cut coming at the hands of McGowan. As a great ST player, and the overall #3rd leading tackler on the team, I believe he brings the kind of passion to the field that we need on this team--also I believe he is alot of what BB looks for.

    I simply do not want to mess with a position of stability, and I, personally like our 4 safeties as of today.

    I like the 6 DB idea, even if it means having 24 on offense, 25 on defense,a LS, K, P and only ONE pure ST player who wouldn't otherwise make the roster such as Slater, etc. This team should be loaded w/ ST talent, and I believe that was one of the goals in drafting the last 2 yrs. We should have plenty of ST players who will already have achieved roster spots. We really could get by w/ only 1 pure ST guy taking up a spot, ala Slater.

    Just my opinion though, there's no right or wrong of course.
  26. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Perhaps I misled you with regard to my opinion on this matter. I do support having 6 corners and four safeties. I was just emphasizing how important it is to me to have six corners (five plus Arrington).

    In the end, I expect 15 front seven defensive players and 10 defensive backs (including Arrington). We can spend from now until the start of Game 2 guesses to final front 15.


  27. italia44

    italia44 Rookie

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    I agree with mgteich's basic premise,but for different reasons.........BB is always going to keep more DB's,but this comes at the risk of RB's and OL,not safeties.

    McGowan's problem is not Chung or Sanders,it's McCourty and Arrington.James Sanders is a FS,who can play SS.......McGowan can't...no experience and not fast enough....Chung can.

    McCourty,imo,can play NB,as well as rotating into a SS look because of his speed and tackling ability.Given some reps,Kyle Arrington could play anywhere in the box and is our top ST's tackler with terrific burst(I can envision him as a press corner or even Free Safety).

    Brandon McGowan,who I do like......is more of a "big nickle" guy......made superflous by faster linebackers and DB's like Butler,McCourty.

    .......at least,that's the way I see it.
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