Owslek, I don't see where we differ. I said "unless he really produces." You counter with the opinion that he has a very reasonable "#1 receiver salary."
Is the intent to pay a #1 receiver salary, reasonable or otherwise, to a guy who does not produce? $11M for the year, or around $16M for 08 and 09 (once the die is cast,) for a guy playing middling wideout? No. The annual per year over three years of $6+M. But when the decision is made, it's a decision of whether to spend about $8M/year for two remaining years. He's got to be a little more than a Reche Caldwell 06 to merit that. You are correct, however, that he does not have to be Steve Smith 05.
Admittedly, my phrasing left a lot of wiggle room. To clarify: I'm not insisting on 1500 yards and 12 TDs; these are not very achievable in NE's spread attack, as we know it. They seem even less likely in the presence of a Moss. But I don't think he goes forward with that price tag with 600 yards and 5 TDs. Somewhere in the middle, he crosses the threshold where those contract numbers become real.
PF37, I agree with you that the Moss/Stallworth choice is a great one to have to make -- if indeed we even have to make it -- come 2008. I too disagree with anyone who says the receiver position upgrade is a one-year deal. I do think they'd love CJ to show signs of apprenticing successfully to Moss/Stallworth, so they fill their "#2" position at a decent cost. I don't understand the theory that the Pats will have decent receivers "one season only." I do understand the theory that Moss and Stallworth are likely an either/or proposition, going forward. A big-time contract for a resurgent Moss, in addition to the Stallworth deal, seems like it might put a bit more into the WR basket than the Pats would assign.
OTOH... BB has raved about Moss many times. It seems that Stallworth was meant to be a young/"poor man's" Moss (speaking of the "former" Moss.) BB having both playing well and minding their manners? Here's an idea to strike fear in everybody's heart except ours: what if Moss just really, really likes rings, and already feels okay about the money he's earned?
What if Stallworth gets his remaining $16M, and Moss signs at $6M/APY over 3 years? Sure, we have issues with the big D Line contracts... but no law says we have to pick up the slack at WR. It's just what we've done in the past.
For my money, it's a scary proposition, in a way... but if Moss likes it here, we'll have to face it. The problem is that we're building a large tier of $6M+ guys, something we've historically kept to 1 or 2 players, and that's going to thin our depth (even with new cap inflation every year.) This does bring up the prospect that buying now is buying cheap, given the next few years' cap inflation... but the bull in me says don't go nuts at any one position. Then again, we've been spoiled (cap-wise) at many positions. Most FOs don't bat an eye at 2 wideouts making 6M/year.
Whew. I'm so jonesing for 2007 I'm already making up issues for 2008.
PFnV
