I purposely avoid the pre-game stuff during the week, as no matter how my team is portrayed, I tend to view it through purple-colored glasses, and feel like the Ravens are getting short-changed at every corner.
Some of you are wondering why anyone would pick the Ravens to win. I see the game as a coin flip, considering a) recent performances by both teams and b) recent games in the series between the teams.
I wouldn't put too much weight into what happened in previous years myself (even though the Pats are 7-2 against the Ravens). They are both significantly different teams from even earlier this year, never mind from previous seasons.
The Ravens faced a much tougher assignment than N.E. did last weekend,
Did they? Or was Denver over-hyped based on a soft schedule (and the media's fawning over Manning), especially without McGahee? One team won 13 games, the other won 12. Even if that's not the case isn't that logic a wash, considering it took two overtimes for the Ravens to win, while the Pats were up 38-13 in the 4th quarter before cruising to a 13-point win?
and really should've won going away if not for two completely out of character special teams breakdowns. Take those away and we wouldn't have needed a last-second miracle TD. New England, to their credit, did what they were supposed to do, dismantled an inferior opponent, who was clearing trending down in their recent performances, at home.
You could look at it that way. Or you could look at it as being fortunate to have won the game; works both ways.
Honestly, I feel more confident of a Ravens win this week than I did last week. Mostly because I didn't have much confidence at all going into Denver!
I have seen similar sentiments from many Ravens fans. I don't understand why beating Denver means Baltimore will also beat New England.
But the Ravens, like the Pats, are peeking right now. Their recently revamped OL is playing very well, which was NOT the case throughout the regular season. The secondary has gotten over the loss of Webb (no small feat), with Corey Graham becoming a very good corner (Cary Williams, on the other hand, still has his problems). And Flacco-to-Smith is becoming a deadly combination that few teams have been able to stop lately.
I absolutely agree that the Ravens OL has improved late in the season, with with Bryant McKinnie healthy enough to play LT, moving Michael Oher over to RT, and Kelechi Osemele to LG. In terms of pass coverage though, who covers Welker? Who covers Hernandez? Who takes care of a RB like Vereen on passes out of the backfield?[/quote]
So, my confidence is based on:
1) Our defense playing better right now, with more proven play-makers than the Pats'.
The Ravens defense has indeed been playing better since week 16 (i.e., after the Broncos loss and since beating the Giants). In that same time frame the Pats are allowing less than 15 points per game, so while I completely agree that Ravens D is playing better than they had been playing, I would also hesitate to say the Ravens D is playing better than the Pats D.
As for more proven-play makers, don't the Patriots have more proven-play makers on offense - making that a wash? Also, those defensive play-makers are either a step or two slower due to age (Ray Lewis, Ed Reed), or injuries (Lewis, Terrell Suggs). Suggs was the best defensive player in the NFL last year in my book, but he doesn't appear to have the same burst right now in my opinion.
2) Our offense playing at a high level - basically, the Patriots' offense's advantage over the Ravens' offense isn't quite as great as the Ravens' defense's advantage over the Pats' (hope that makes sense).
Again, I think the two defenses are about at the same level. Consider turnovers - quite possibly the most important factor leading to points. The Pats were 2nd in the NFL with 41; that is 16 more than the number the Ravens had.
3) Our special teams are superior, and I expect they'll clamp down after last week's disastrous performance. Jacoby Jones could be a huge factor tomorrow night.
Both teams had bad ST coverage last week, I would expect that to improve for both squads. While the Ravens did indeed rank 1st in kickoff returns, the Pats were 3rd in kickoff coverage: another wash. The averages in net punt yards and coverage are so close (a yard or two) it's no real advantage for either team.
Could the Pats blow out the Ravens? Sure, their offense is capable of putting up 40-plus on any team. But recent history suggests it will be very close, and I feel like it's "our time," for whatever that's worth.
Hoping for a hard fought game, with no bad injuries and no horrible calls for either side to whine about all off-season! The one "good" thing about last year's Evans/Cundiff meltdowns was that we Ravens fans didn't do much finger-pointing toward the refs - we reserved all our venom for the chokesters in purple!
I would expect it to be fairly close as well. Could the Ravens win? Absolutely! In my opinion the defenses are comparable, but the Pats are better on offense - which makes me think a Pats win is more likely.
