Comparing NE, GB, and NO

[ivanvamp]

These three teams interest me in terms of comparison. Most experts argue that GB is the clear favorite to win it all, and that NO is probably the most complete team, but most folks seem to think that, while Brady gives them a chance, their defense really is so bad as to make a championship not much more than a pipe dream. So let's put that to the test and compare the three teams.

OFFENSE
Yds/G
NO - 456.7 (#1)
NE - 424.5 (#2)
GB - 395.5 (#5)

Pass Yds/G
NO - 331.4 (#1)
NE - 316.1 (#2)
GB - 297.0 (#3)

Pass Y/A
NO - 8.2 (#5)
NE - 8.5 (#2)
GB - 9.2 (#1)

QB Rating
NO - 109.0 (#2)
NE - 105.1 (#3)
GB - 120.9 (#1)

Rush Yds/G
NO - 125.4 (#10)
NE - 108.4 (#20)
GB - 98.5 (#27)

Rush Y/A
NO - 4.7 (#6)
NE - 4.0 (#22)
GB - 4.0 (#21)

3rd Down %
NO - 54.8% (#1)
NE - 45.6% (#4)
GB - 48.0% (#2)

Points Per Game
NO - 32.6 (#2)
NE - 30.9 (#3)
GB - 34.3 (#1)

TO/G
NO - 1.1 (#4)
NE - 1.1 (#3)
GB - 0.8 (#2)

Red Zone Efficiency
NO - 57.1 (#8)
NE - 64.2 (#3)
GB - 65.1 (#2)

Time of Possession
NO - 31:51 (#5)
NE - 28.44 (#25)
GB - 30:24 (#12)

oSRS (profootball-reference.com)
NO - 9.7 (#2)
NE - 8.7 (#3)
GB - 11.0 (#1)

DEFENSE
Yds/G
NO - 366.1 (#25)
NE - 412.1 (#32)
GB - 400.7 (#31)

Pass Yds/G
NO - 256.1 (#28)
NE - 294.7 (#32)
GB - 286.3 (#31)

Pass Y/A
NO - 7.1 (#15)
NE - 8.2 (#29)
GB - 7.7 (#26)

QB Rating
NO - 86.4 (#23)
NE - 88.2 (#26)
GB - 78.3 (#8)

Rush Yds/G
NO - 109.9 (#12)
NE - 117.5 (#17)
GB - 114.4 (#16)

Rush Y/A
NO - 4.9 (#30)
NE - 4.6 (#25)
GB - 4.7 (#26)

3rd Down %
NO - 32.8 (#5)
NE - 44.1 (#29)
GB - 42.9 (#28)

TO/G
NO - 0.9 (#32)
NE - 2.0 (#4)
GB - 2.3 (#2)

Red Zone Efficiency
NO - 64.7% (#31)
NE - 53.5% (#18)
GB - 53.1% (#17)

dSRS (profootball-reference.com)
NO - 0.0 (#18)
NE - 0.0 (#18)
GB - 0.8 (#15)

The overall profile of Green Bay and New England couldn't be more similar. Not in every exact category, obviously, but in the vast majority. It seems to me that it's clear that NE is the #3 team of this group, but it's a lot closer than people would like to think.

Interestingly, NO probably has the best overall statistical profile. But they'll have to go on the road to beat Green Bay (assuming both teams advance that far), and NE would at least get GB (or NO, of course) on a neutral field.

 

[PatsGirl2011]

Well if you listen to the media, the GB/NO are the favorites and the Pats have no chance..Interesting right? I am tired of defending this team against media heads..They are going to keep talking until the Pats shut them up in the playoffs plain and simple.

 

[ThatllMoveTheChains!!!]

NO's turnover differential isn't that shining either. I'd agree that it goes GB, NO, and NE, but the gap between them is very slight.

 

[Luke Skywelker]

Some of this comes down to the eyeball test/rosters. Clearly it's hard to evaluate these teams on numbers with their dominant offenses given they will go up big and play soft defense in the second half.

It's without question the Pats defense has the lowest talent grade of the three. So how far can scheme get you versus talent on the defensive end? In a one and done format, a lot can happen. It may just come down to whose offense gets the hottest. Everyone has a chance based on matchups/turnovers. What is scary with GB is that they just don't turn the ball over and Rogers has almost no weakness - if you get pressure on the guy, he can roll out, throw off the run and he can run the ball on you, unlike a Brady. If Jennings is back healthy, they have the deepest set of targets, unlike NE, who has nothing on the outside. NO has the best run game of the three.

If NE went up against either of these two, I think they might be the team who decides to play conservative/slow the game down because I just don't think they can match up/stop either. So they'd have to shorten the game/play mistake free and manage the hell out of the clock - which they are very capable of.

Ultimately, not worried about either of these two - long way to go before they see either, so not something worth worrying about. I'd be happy with a simple playoff win this year.

 

[ayatollah]

stats are for losers. lets worry about Pitt / Bal
Go Pats

 

[PatsGirl2011]

I don't understand the need for multiple threads about the same thing either..IMO, it won't probably matter in Feb...Lets worry about the AFC first!

 

[QB12]

Don't underestimate the confidence boost our defense will have by the time we get to Indy.

 

[ivanvamp]

stats are for losers. lets worry about Pitt / Bal
Go Pats

Why should we worry about Pitt/Bal? What reasons do you have for the Pats to worry about them?

 

[pherein]

This could be a valid thread and build later on...errr assuming we all survive

 

[ALP]

it seems to me that these three teams are almost identical in almost all categories except:

rushing offense
defense
T.O.P

NO has the best running game, NE has a minor run game, and GB does not have one

whereares NO is the more complete defense, the GB pass defense is no joke, where areas the NE team has NO strength on the defense

both GB and NO have some really nice T.O.P numbers, we do not, NE seems to barely have the ball....

from these i would say GB and NO are about equal, and NE is a half step below them

but no team has been as hot as NE, and no team has gone through as much as NE....plus i predicted NE to win it all so....

what the stats dont show is this: we have the best out of the three amazing coaches....where McCarthy and Peyton are incredible coaches, our is GOAT

we have the best of the three QB's and by far the most clutch of the three, not because of what they lack, but because of what Brady has in such excess

and we have the hunger more than either of those two teams....GB won it last year, NO a couple of years ago.....we have not won a PO game since 07.....we will not lose, stats be damned

 

[pherein]

it seems to me that these three teams are almost identical in almost all categories except:

rushing offense
defense
T.O.P

NO has the best running game, NE has a minor run game, and GB does not have one

whereares NO is the more complete defense, the GB pass defense is no joke, where areas the NE team has NO strength on the defense

both GB and NO have some really nice T.O.P numbers, we do not, NE seems to barely have the ball....

from these i would say GB and NO are about equal, and NE is a half step below them

but no team has been as hot as NE, and no team has gone through as much as NE....plus i predicted NE to win it all so....

what the stats dont show is this: we have the best out of the three amazing coaches....where McCarthy and Peyton are incredible coaches, our is GOAT

we have the best of the three QB's and by far the most clutch of the three, not because of what they lack, but because of what Brady has in such excess

and we have the hunger more than either of those two teams....GB won it last year, NO a couple of years ago.....we have not won a PO game since 07.....we will not lose, stats be damned

Dont agree with hunger, but your right NE has the best coach & QB

 

[groundgame]

On Saturday's ESPN NFL show they asked 3 panelists what team was best among NO / NE / and GB. Belichick hating Tom Jackson liked New England's chances the best, while Saints and Packers also got 1 vote each.

 

[SyN65]

I've said it once and I'll say it again, NE would have a slim to no chance against GB/NO in the Super Bowl.

I don't care what the stats say. NO/GB both have QB's that are playing at a higher level than Brady and both teams have more weapons on offense. Remember that NO Monday night game a few years back? It'd be a repeat of that game.

I can only imagine what Brees/Rodgers would do to the scrubs we have playing in the secondary.

 

[SyN65]

it seems to me that these three teams are almost identical in almost all categories except:

rushing offense
defense
T.O.P

NO has the best running game, NE has a minor run game, and GB does not have one

whereares NO is the more complete defense, the GB pass defense is no joke, where areas the NE team has NO strength on the defense

both GB and NO have some really nice T.O.P numbers, we do not, NE seems to barely have the ball....

from these i would say GB and NO are about equal, and NE is a half step below them

but no team has been as hot as NE, and no team has gone through as much as NE....plus i predicted NE to win it all so....

what the stats dont show is this: we have the best out of the three amazing coaches....where McCarthy and Peyton are incredible coaches, our is GOAT

we have the best of the three QB's and by far the most clutch of the three, not because of what they lack, but because of what Brady has in such excess

and we have the hunger more than either of those two teams....GB won it last year, NO a couple of years ago.....we have not won a PO game since 07.....we will not lose, stats be damned

The best of the three coaches? Say's who? Both of those coaches have won a SB more recently than Belichick and both of those coaches have had more success in the recent years than BB.

The best of the three QB's? Again...what makes you say that? Rodgers is putting up all time great numbers and Brees is no slouch either.

More hunger? I'll say it again...what? Did you interview everyone from NO/GB or something? What qualifies you to say that?

 

[deroc5050]

I've said it once and I'll say it again, NE would have a slim to no chance against GB/NO in the Super Bowl.

I don't care what the stats say. NO/GB both have QB's that are playing at a higher level than Brady and both teams have more weapons on offense. Remember that NO Monday night game a few years back? It'd be a repeat of that game.

I can only imagine what Brees/Rodgers would do to the scrubs we have playing in the secondary.

I disagree.. was that Brady's first year back after surgery? We should throw that year out.. we know he was not himself that year and the team quit at the end.. Baltimore rolled them with ease.. That team had no fight in it.. if it got down a score or 2 they folded.

This year's patriots team has a lot of mental toughness.. Don't underestimate that factor.. The Pats should go to the super bowl this year and I think they can beat NO straight up. I don't know if they can beat GB but it will be a good game none the less. Who knows SF might knock them out and end up in the big game. I myself want to see a GB/NE match up.

 

[fgssand]

This could be a valid thread and build later on...errr assuming we all survive

Pherein....question:

On your journey to Indy, if you had the choice, what teams would you prefer to face?

Baltimore and Pittsburgh OR SF & GB??

 

[strngplyr]

it seems to me that these three teams are almost identical in almost all categories except:

rushing offense
defense
T.O.P

NO has the best running game, NE has a minor run game, and GB does not have one

whereares NO is the more complete defense, the GB pass defense is no joke, where areas the NE team has NO strength on the defense

both GB and NO have some really nice T.O.P numbers, we do not, NE seems to barely have the ball....

from these i would say GB and NO are about equal, and NE is a half step below them

but no team has been as hot as NE, and no team has gone through as much as NE....plus i predicted NE to win it all so....

what the stats dont show is this: we have the best out of the three amazing coaches....where McCarthy and Peyton are incredible coaches, our is GOAT

we have the best of the three QB's and by far the most clutch of the three, not because of what they lack, but because of what Brady has in such excess

and we have the hunger more than either of those two teams....GB won it last year, NO a couple of years ago.....we have not won a PO game since 07.....we will not lose, stats be damned

GB has won 19 of its last 20. Are you sure NE is the hottest team? Unless you only want to count the last 2 weeks, then GB is still the hottest team in the NFL IMO.

 

[fnordcircle]

I don't care what the stats say. NO/GB both have QB's that are playing at a higher level than Brady

So basically "I do not care what happens on the field (stats), Brees and Rodgers are playing better than Brady."

Life is easy when you don't let facts get in the way.

I don't necessarily disagree with you but you can't jedi handwave away stats on one hand and then claim to believe something that can only be backed up by stats.

I'll tell you this much - Brady is doing what he is doing with less. The Saints and the Packers have more talent on their defense and are healthier than the Pats.

 

[ivanvamp]

I've said it once and I'll say it again, NE would have a slim to no chance against GB/NO in the Super Bowl.

I don't care what the stats say. NO/GB both have QB's that are playing at a higher level than Brady and both teams have more weapons on offense. Remember that NO Monday night game a few years back? It'd be a repeat of that game.

I can only imagine what Brees/Rodgers would do to the scrubs we have playing in the secondary.

Well, I happen to agree that Brees or Rodgers would (at least *should*) rip apart NE's defense. But I don't see any reason to believe that either NO or GB would slow down NE's offense either. 45-42 final, one way or the other.

 

[RobertWeathers]

There is no question GB or NO would get their points vs NE.

But for people to say that NE won't get their points vs NO or GB are a bit shortsighted.

Both teams have major defensive flaws. NO in the red zone and GB vs the pass.

The Pats will have some major challenges in the AFC. If folks haven't noticed. HOU, BAL, PIT and yes, the NYJ are all in the top 5 in defensive QB rating- not a bad stat.

Lets see IF NE gets though the AFC first....