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Comp picks estimate just posted by Adamjt13

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  1. FreeTedWilliams

    FreeTedWilliams pfadmins PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #75 Jersey

    As anyone who trolls here regularly knows a guy adamjt13, is has been predicting the Comp picks for the last 8 years, and he is usually right on the money.

    His blog is:

    http://adamjt13.blog.com/


    Right now, he still has last year’s estimates up, but he posted it on March 4th last year, so I'm guessing it should be coming out soon.

    My guesses are a 3rd, and 2 5ths
    Last edited: Mar 1, 2009
  2. DaBruinz

    DaBruinz Pats, B's, Sox PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #50 Jersey

    FTW - There have been at least 4 threads on this topic since last September. And your guesses are the same that mine were.
  3. FreeTedWilliams

    FreeTedWilliams pfadmins PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #75 Jersey

    I was trolling the internet looking for his blog, so I figured I would post it here for quick reference when it comes out.
  4. Jimke

    Jimke Rookie

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    He posted his last information on March 4, 2008, so he is probably

    due to project his 2009 compoensatory picks in the near future.
  5. FreeTedWilliams

    FreeTedWilliams pfadmins PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #75 Jersey

    He's posted it:

    http://www.footballsfuture.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=307909

    He says a 3rd, 5th, & 6th for the Pats

    FROM ADAMJT13:


    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    For the eighth consecutive year and ninth overall, I’ve attempted to project all of the compensatory draft picks that the NFL will award. In my past seven projections, I’ve averaged 23.9 out of 32 exactly correct (going to the correct team in the correct round) and have been off by only one round on an average of 4.1 more. Last year, I got 25 correct and was off by one round on four more. With this year’s projections, I’m hoping to get a combined score of at least 30, although it’s possible that more than the usual number of them could be off by one round because so many projected compensatory picks fell near the cutoff points between rounds.

    Last year, the lowest-paid player who is known to have qualified for the NFL’s comp equation was Michael Myers, who signed for $825,000 per season and saw significant playing time. The highest-paid player who is known to have not qualified was Mike Doss, who signed for $900,000 per season by saw very little playing time except on special teams. The non-qualifying player with the highest value using the compensatory formula was Chris Liwienski, who signed for $740,000 per season and played almost 90 percent of his team’s offensive snaps. This year, only one player was “on the bubble” for qualifying – Tony Richardson, who left the Vikings and signed with the Jets for $860,000 per season. However, regardless of whether Richardson qualifies, the Vikings and the Jets each signed more qualifying players than they lost, which means Richardson doesn’t affect the comp picks at all.

    I’m fairly confident that the players I consider a little “above the bubble” this year (Terry Cousin, Keydrick Vincent and Danny Clark) will qualify for the equation, and that the players I consider slightly “below the bubble” (Alex Stepanovich and Aaron Glenn), will not qualify. The lowest-valued player “above the bubble,” Danny Clark, has a value in the formula that is more than 20 percent higher than that of last year’s lowest-valued qualifying player. And the highest-valued player “below the bubble,” Alex Stepanovich, has a value that is less than that of the lowest-valued qualifying player last year (Michael Myers) and less than 1 percent more than the highest-valued non-qualifying player last year (Chris Liwienski). If I’m wrong about any of those players, it will represent by far the largest or smallest increase in the minimum value needed to qualify that the NFL has used since comp picks were first awarded.

    There were two unusual cases this year, one involving Keary Colbert and the other involving Marques Douglas, and they each might or might not count in the comp picks equation.

    Colbert was a UFA for Carolina who signed with Denver, was traded to Seattle on Sept. 17, then was cut by the Seahawks on Nov. 12. The only clue about how the NFL handles a player like this in the compensatory formula is the case of Qadry Ismail in 1998. He was a free agent for Minnesota in 1997, signed with Green Bay, then was traded to Miami during the preseason. He did not count in the equation for Minnesota or Green Bay. It’s not known whether he counted for Miami, because the Dolphins didn’t receive any comp picks in 1998, so the NFL never revealed which players counted as lost or signed for Miami. In Colbert’s case, it doesn’t matter whether he counts for Carolina and/or Denver, because neither team will receive a comp pick either way. They each signed more qualifying players than they lost, regardless of whether Colbert counts. It does matter for Seattle, though. If Colbert counts as a player added, the Seahawks would receive three comp picks. If he does not, the Seahawks would receive four. Because Colbert was a member of the Seahawks for only eight weeks, I am projecting that he will not count in the equation.

    Douglas was a UFA for San Francisco who signed with Tampa Bay, then was traded to Baltimore on Aug. 27 and played in every game for the Ravens. Whether he counts for Tampa Bay and/or Baltimore is irrelevant, because they each signed more qualifying players than they lost. However, it does matter if he counts for San Francisco. If he counts as a player lost by the 49ers, they will receive two comp picks. If not, they will get one comp pick. I am projecting that Douglas will count as a player lost by the 49ers.

    Last year, regardless of playing time or postseason honors, the third-round comp players had signed for at least $6.25 million per season, the fourth-round comp players had signed for $4.67 million to $5.225 million, the only fifth-round comp player had signed for $4.5 million, the sixth-round comp players had signed for $2.25 million to $3.75 million, and the seventh-round comp players had signed for $2.5 million or less per season. Note that there are huge gaps between some rounds, and that there is an overlap between the sixth and seventh rounds because of the adjustments for playing time. You’ll find the contract values for each round of this year’s projected picks in the list a few paragraphs below this one.

    As I alluded to earlier, the NFL adds non-compensatory picks if fewer than 32 comp picks are awarded. The non-compensatory picks are given, in order, to the teams that would be drafting if there were an eighth round, until the maximum of 32 has been reached. If there are 28 true comps, for example, the NFL would give additional picks to the teams that would have the first four picks in the eighth round, if there were one. This year, I’m projecting that 29 true comps will be awarded, including Detroit’s comp pick for a net-value loss, which I mentioned earlier. Therefore, I’m projecting that Detroit, Kansas City and St. Louis will receive non-compensatory picks to fill out the maximum number of picks. If the NFL’s equation results in more than three non-compensatory picks being added, the next five teams in line to receive one would be Cleveland, Seattle, Cincinnati, Jacksonville and Oakland, in that order.


    Here are the projected picks for 2009, along with the compensatory player, their average contract value, their games played, their games started and other notes (I’ve also noted the nine picks that fall near a cutoff point and could end up in a different round) –


    THIRD ROUND
    New England (Asante Samuel, $9.3567 million per season, 15 GP/15 GS, Pro Bowl)
    Pittsburgh (Alan Faneca, $7.8 million, 16/16, Pro Bowl)
    Cincinnati (Justin Smith, $7 million, 16/16) – possibly a fourth-round pick
    Arizona (Calvin Pace, $6.75 million, 16/16) – possibly a fourth-round pick

    FOURTH ROUND
    Chicago (Bernard Berrian, $6.9 million, 16/13) – possibly a third-round pick
    N.Y. Giants (Gibril Wilson, $6.5008 million, 16/15) – possibly a third-round pick
    San Diego (Michael Turner, $5.75 million, 16/16, Pro Bowl) – possibly a third-round pick
    San Diego (Drayton Florence, $5.9333 million, 15/8)
    Tennessee (Antwan Odom, $5.9 million, 12/8)
    Indianapolis (Jake Scott, $4.8 million, 16/16) – possibly a fifth-round pick

    FIFTH ROUND
    San Francisco (Kwame Harris, $4.6667 million, 14/11)
    Tennessee (Travis LaBoy, $4.4 million, 13/12)
    New England (Donte Stallworth, $4.5393 million, 11/7)
    Dallas (Jacques Reeves, $4 million, 16/16) – possibly a sixth-round pick

    SIXTH ROUND
    Tennessee (Randy Starks, $3.885 million, 16/4)
    New England (Randall Gay, $3.3125 million, 14/13)
    Dallas (Julius Jones, $2.9 million, 15/10)
    San Francisco (Marques Douglas, $2.525 million, 16/0) – possibly a seventh-round pick
    Cincinnati (Landon Johnson, $2.733 million, 15/0) – possibly a seventh-round pick

    SEVENTH ROUND
    Tennessee (Ben Hartsock, $2.25 million, 11/11)
    Washington (Mark Brunell, $1.755 million, 2/0)
    Seattle (Chuck Darby, $1.467 million, 15/15)
    Chicago (John Gilmore, $1.333 million, 16/10)
    Seattle (Kevin Bentley, $1.3 million, 16/7)
    Seattle (Ellis Wyms, $1.4 million, 16/0)
    Chicago (Brendon Ayanbadejo, $1.223 million, 16/0, Pro Bowl)
    Seattle (D.J. Hackett, $1.2 million, 9/2)
    Jacksonville (Terry Cousin, $1.115 million, 16/0)
    Detroit (net-value comp pick, lost three for $10.721 million, 38/22; signed three for $7.134 million, 42/31)
    Detroit (non-compensatory pick)
    Kansas City (non-compensatory pick)
    St. Louis (non-compensatory pick)
    Last edited: Mar 11, 2009
  6. Isaac

    Isaac Rookie

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    Ah, finally! This warrants a front-page thread though--I'll post with credit to you.
  7. PATSNUTme

    PATSNUTme Paranoid Homer Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #75 Jersey

    I guess it's safe to say that our pick for Samuel should be #97. After that all of our picks will now change in what # they are so will have to wait until after the owners meetings March 22-25 to see the exact draft order for the rounds 4- 7.

    I'll move this thread to the main forum.
    Last edited: Mar 11, 2009
  8. Isaac

    Isaac Rookie

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    AdamJT13's comp pick 2009 projection: 3, 5, 6

    Credit to FreeTedWilliams for seeing that AdamJT13 has finally posted his compensatory pick projections (NFL Forum :: - Projecting the 2009 Compensatory Picks).

    Here you go:
    For the eighth consecutive year and ninth overall, I’ve attempted to project all of the compensatory draft picks that the NFL will award. In my past seven projections, I’ve averaged 23.9 out of 32 exactly correct (going to the correct team in the correct round) and have been off by only one round on an average of 4.1 more. Last year, I got 25 correct and was off by one round on four more. With this year’s projections, I’m hoping to get a combined score of at least 30, although it’s possible that more than the usual number of them could be off by one round because so many projected compensatory picks fell near the cutoff points between rounds.

    As the NFL explains, compensatory picks are awarded to teams that lose more or better compensatory free agents than they acquire. The number of picks a team can receive equals the net loss of compensatory free agents, up to a maximum of four. Compensatory free agents are determined by a secret formula based on salary, playing time and postseason honors. Not every free agent lost or signed is covered by the formula.

    Although the formula has never been revealed, by studying the compensatory picks that have been awarded since they began in 1994, I’ve determined that the primary factor in the value of the picks awarded is the average annual value of the contract the player signed with his new team, with an adjustment for playing time and a smaller adjustment for postseason honors. It should be noted that the contract values used in the equation seemingly do not include things such as workout bonuses, incentives and conditional bonuses. (Also, keep in mind that the contract figures reported in the media often are incorrect.) And the playing time used in the equation seemingly is the percentage of offensive or defensive snaps played.

    A simple method of determining for which qualifying free agents a team will be compensated is this – for every player acquired, cancel out a lost player of similar value. For example, consider a team that loses one qualifying player whose value would bring a third-round comp pick and another qualifying player whose value would bring a sixth-round comp pick but signs a qualifying player whose value would be in the range of a third-round pick. That team would receive a sixth-round comp pick because the signed player would cancel out the loss of the higher-valued player. If the signed player’s value was equal to a fourth-round pick or lower, however, the team would receive a third-round comp pick, because the signed player would cancel out the loss of the lower-valued player.

    ...
    Here are the projected picks for 2009, along with the compensatory player, their average contract value, their games played, their games started and other notes (I’ve also noted the nine picks that fall near a cutoff point and could end up in a different round) –


    THIRD ROUND
    New England (Asante Samuel, $9.3567 million per season, 15 GP/15 GS, Pro Bowl)
    Pittsburgh (Alan Faneca, $7.8 million, 16/16, Pro Bowl)
    Cincinnati (Justin Smith, $7 million, 16/16) – possibly a fourth-round pick
    Arizona (Calvin Pace, $6.75 million, 16/16) – possibly a fourth-round pick

    FOURTH ROUND
    Chicago (Bernard Berrian, $6.9 million, 16/13) – possibly a third-round pick
    N.Y. Giants (Gibril Wilson, $6.5008 million, 16/15) – possibly a third-round pick
    San Diego (Michael Turner, $5.75 million, 16/16, Pro Bowl) – possibly a third-round pick
    San Diego (Drayton Florence, $5.9333 million, 15/8)
    Tennessee (Antwan Odom, $5.9 million, 12/8)
    Indianapolis (Jake Scott, $4.8 million, 16/16) – possibly a fifth-round pick

    FIFTH ROUND
    San Francisco (Kwame Harris, $4.6667 million, 14/11)
    Tennessee (Travis LaBoy, $4.4 million, 13/12)
    New England (Donte Stallworth, $4.5393 million, 11/7)
    Dallas (Jacques Reeves, $4 million, 16/16) – possibly a sixth-round pick

    SIXTH ROUND
    Tennessee (Randy Starks, $3.885 million, 16/4)
    New England (Randall Gay, $3.3125 million, 14/13)
    Dallas (Julius Jones, $2.9 million, 15/10)
    San Francisco (Marques Douglas, $2.525 million, 16/0) – possibly a seventh-round pick
    Cincinnati (Landon Johnson, $2.733 million, 15/0) – possibly a seventh-round pick

    SEVENTH ROUND
    Tennessee (Ben Hartsock, $2.25 million, 11/11)
    Washington (Mark Brunell, $1.755 million, 2/0)
    Seattle (Chuck Darby, $1.467 million, 15/15)
    Chicago (John Gilmore, $1.333 million, 16/10)
    Seattle (Kevin Bentley, $1.3 million, 16/7)
    Seattle (Ellis Wyms, $1.4 million, 16/0)
    Chicago (Brendon Ayanbadejo, $1.223 million, 16/0, Pro Bowl)
    Seattle (D.J. Hackett, $1.2 million, 9/2)
    Jacksonville (Terry Cousin, $1.115 million, 16/0)
    Detroit (net-value comp pick, lost three for $10.721 million, 38/22; signed three for $7.134 million, 42/31)
    Detroit (non-compensatory pick)
    Kansas City (non-compensatory pick)
    St. Louis (non-compensatory pick)


    As noted, the values of nine comp picks fell near the cutoff points between rounds, so it wouldn’t surprise me if the comp picks for Smith and/or Pace are in the fourth round, if the comp picks for Berrian, Wilson and/or Turner are in the third round, if the comp pick for Scott is in the fifth round, if the comp pick for Reeves is in the sixth round or if the comp picks for Douglas and/or Johnson are in the seventh round. (Actually, if Douglas’ value falls in the seventh round, the 49ers’ comp pick would be for Maurice Hicks and would fall between Seattle’s pick for Ellis Wyms and Chicago’s pick for Brendon Ayanbadejo.)

    Of course, other projected picks could be off by one round (or more) if the NFL happened to change the formula or increase the cutoff points by significantly more or less than I projected.


    Here are the qualifying players lost and signed (in order of value) for the 15 teams that I’m projecting will receive comp picks –

    NEW ENGLAND
    Lost: Asante Samuel, Donte Stallworth, Randall Gay
    Signed: None

    --------------------------------------------------------


    Feel free to post my projections on other message boards, as long as you give proper credit. Because I cannot register for and regularly visit every single message board where my projections are posted by others, please encourage anyone who has questions for me to post them in the comments at adamjt13.blogspot.com.
    Last edited: Mar 11, 2009
  9. Isaac

    Isaac Rookie

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    Even better, please delete my thread then.

    Here are the qualifying players lost and signed (in order of value) –

    NEW ENGLAND
    Lost: Asante Samuel, Donte Stallworth, Randall Gay
    Signed: None
  10. borg

    borg Rookie

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    Re: AdamJT13's comp pick 2009 projection: 3, 5, 6

    If I'm a player heading into this draft, the last team I want to pick me on Day 2 of this draft is the NE Patriots. Extra untradeable picks would be a blessing for a lousy team, but the Pats have good depth, with 11 picks presumably, and the likelyhood of a bottom round pick making the team is very slim. Sure, Brady and Cassel would disagree, but this is a numbers game and looking at last years day 2 picks...you get the point...camp fodder.
    Last edited: Mar 11, 2009
  11. Robdude

    Robdude Rookie

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    Re: AdamJT13's comp pick 2009 projection: 3, 5, 6

    This might be the year to make a trip to New York for the draft. Six picks in the first three rounds is a great position to be in. The Pats have a lot of flexibility. I would not be surprised to see the Pats turn the Chiefs 2nd round pick into a 2010 1st round pick of a team that picks late 1st round this year. Well I guess There isn't much that would surprise me actually the possibilities are endless. :rolleyes:
  12. PATSNUTme

    PATSNUTme Paranoid Homer Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #75 Jersey

    Re: AdamJT13's comp pick 2009 projection: 3, 5, 6

    Guyton and Redd would also disagree.
  13. Jimke

    Jimke Rookie

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    None of the other AFC East teams get any picks.
  14. everlong

    everlong Rookie

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    #12 Jersey

    I obviously don't have the formulas and experience he does but how can Turner not be a 3rd rounder earning 6M and making the pro bowl?

    Not that I want to give AJ Smith higher picks.
  15. Urgent

    Urgent Rookie

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    #24 Jersey

    Because the cut-off for a third, he projects, is above $6mm in average salary.
    Salary, according to his analysis, is the first criteria.
  16. spacecrime

    spacecrime Rookie

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    Re: AdamJT13's comp pick 2009 projection: 3, 5, 6

    Camp fodder because they aren't good enough. Plenty of 2nd day picks make the Pats team. And about one UDFA a year, also. And many of the guys who don't make the cut are picked up elsewhere. Some teams have a 8-10 UDFAs at cutdown, and when a player who was on their draft board is cut by the Pats on cutdown day, they sign him.

    Mostly, though, guys like you and me play the odds. Football players have condifence in their abilities (or they couldn't have the short memory to put a bad play behind them) and they sincerely believe that all they need is a chance to show what they can do.
  17. Raymond

    Raymond Rookie

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    No Jersey Selected

    Re: AdamJT13's comp pick 2009 projection: 3, 5, 6

    Please Rob, If you do go, when the Jets losers booo as the Pats pick, could you hit the nearest one as hard as humanly possible?
  18. DaBruinz

    DaBruinz Pats, B's, Sox PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #50 Jersey

    Because, Turner's contract actually only averages 5.75 million. And, while he had a great year, that only accounts for a small part of the equation. AdamJT13 has done an outstanding job year after year missing only 1-2 picks which are usually picks that are borderline.
  19. Jimke

    Jimke Rookie

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    How did you make out on your projection?
  20. DaBruinz

    DaBruinz Pats, B's, Sox PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #50 Jersey

    I was correct on Samuel and Stallworth. Gay, I had as a 5th, but he was a borderline one for me who I felt could slip to a 6th because on his injuries.

    So I am happy.
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