Combine observations, stats, and discussion (DB)

[FredFromDartmouth]

Ah, Van Dyke! Forgot about him! Now there's an eye-catching prospect. 6'1", 168 lbs -- all of it limbs. Skinniest man I've ever seen play football. I seriously was afraid he'd snap in two. Yet he has survived 4 years as a Miami Hurricane. 7th-round project at best.

Exactly. Same build as Terrence Wheatley.

Al Davis takes him in the second. I am taking bets on this...

 

[jays52]

Exactly. Same build as Terrence Wheatley.

Al Davis takes him in the second. I am taking bets on this...

Only diffence is that Wheatley blew up the real DB tests in the agility and explosion tests. Wheatley was mind blowingly fast in the football skills department. VD can only move on the y-axis. If he gains ten pounds he could develop into a nice gunner.

 

[patchick]

Only diffence is that Wheatley blew up the real DB tests in the agility and explosion tests. Wheatley was mind blowingly fast in the football skills department. VD can only move on the y-axis. If he gains ten pounds he could develop into a nice gunner.

...and Wheatley was 5'10" 187, a far cry from 6'1" 168. Trust me, Van Dyke looks and moves nothing like Wheatley -- or like any NFL football player I've seen, for that matter.

There is, though, a Wheatley clone in this draft: Buster Skrine.

 

[DaBruinz]

He's a good athlete, smart kid, and leader type, but I'm not confident he's a good enough football player. IIRC, he flipped between WR and DB at Stanford and didn't really excel at either. He's a UDFA candidate to me.

I watched him play CB at the Senior Bowl and he looked extremely solid there. And at 6'2 4/8", he's the "bigger" DB that people have been wanting.

I could see him as a free safety/nickel corner that could be added in the late rounds or via UDFA.

 

[jays52]

...and Wheatley was 5'10" 187, a far cry from 6'1" 168. Trust me, Van Dyke looks and moves nothing like Wheatley -- or like any NFL football player I've seen, for that matter.

There is, though, a Wheatley clone in this draft: Buster Skrine.

Yeah, Skrine's footwork was mind-boggling. Curious if you've seen him play at all, as I've seen nothing but him working out. I'd be interested in knowing how his athleticism correlates to his on-field game.

 

[patchick]

Yeah, Skrine's footwork was mind-boggling. Curious if you've seen him play at all, as I've seen nothing but him working out. I'd be interested in knowing how his athleticism correlates to his on-field game.

I'm afraid I've never seen a full Tennessee-Chattanooga game in my life . I didn't see him in the Shrine game either, but Chad Reuter said he showed "fluidity and ball skills" in practice. And of course, CB highlight clips are supremely useless -- you only get plays where the ball was thrown in their direction, and even then you don't see the CB until the ball is 10 ft from him.

Even so, I'll say that Skrine is the one CB this year in the Pats' classic Butler/Wheatley/Samuel draft mold. He made it look like everybody else was wearing lead shoes in the skill drills, and he posted the best combination of 40, cone and shuttle times of any prospect I can remember at any position, ever. Plus I thought he looked like a football player running the drills -- unlike some of the bigger-name guys, he didn't look scared when the ball came at him.

 

[jays52]

I'm afraid I've never seen a full Tennessee-Chattanooga game in my life . I didn't see him in the Shrine game either, but Chad Reuter said he showed "fluidity and ball skills" in practice. And of course, CB highlight clips are supremely useless -- you only get plays where the ball was thrown in their direction, and even then you don't see the CB until the ball is 10 ft from him.

Even so, I'll say that Skrine is the one CB this year in the Pats' classic Butler/Wheatley/Samuel draft mold. He made it look like everybody else was wearing lead shoes in the skill drills, and he posted the best combination of 40, cone and shuttle times of any prospect I can remember at any position, ever. Plus I thought he looked like a football player running the drills -- unlike some of the bigger-name guys, he didn't look scared when the ball came at him.

Hahaha hey, ya never know if someone's a fan of that powerhouse program, right? I absolutely agree that he looked the part in the combine and moved better than the bigger name guys. Considering that they really need a slot corner I wouldn't be surprised to see the Skrine pick. Brandon Harris, Ahmad Black, and Skrine sound right to you for the three potential slot corners?

 

[dryheat44]

Hahaha hey, ya never know if someone's a fan of that powerhouse program, right? I absolutely agree that he looked the part in the combine and moved better than the bigger name guys. Considering that they really need a slot corner I wouldn't be surprised to see the Skrine pick. Brandon Harris, Ahmad Black, and Skrine sound right to you for the three potential slot corners?

Would we be drafting Black to cover offensive tackles on tackle-eligible plays? He might be too small.

 

[DaBruinz]

Hahaha hey, ya never know if someone's a fan of that powerhouse program, right? I absolutely agree that he looked the part in the combine and moved better than the bigger name guys. Considering that they really need a slot corner I wouldn't be surprised to see the Skrine pick. Brandon Harris, Ahmad Black, and Skrine sound right to you for the three potential slot corners?

The Pats have Arrington, Wilhite, and Butler behind Bodden and McCourty. Wilhite and Butler are both more than adequate as slot corners. They have also used Chung and Meriweather in the slot when they've gone to the "Big Nickel"

So, I'm curious as to why you think they need a slot corner.

 

[MaineMan]

The Pats have Arrington, Wilhite, and Butler behind Bodden and McCourty. Wilhite and Butler are both more than adequate as slot corners. They have also used Chung and Meriweather in the slot when they've gone to the "Big Nickel"

So, I'm curious as to why you think they need a slot corner.

Seems to me that Wilhite was adequate in coverage. I was significantly less confident in Butler. Both seemed mediocre in run support. Seems to me that there wasn't much (if any) dropoff in coverage with Chung instead of either of these two, and Chung's run support, of course, was significantly superior - which turned out to be critical this past season with our sieve-like D-line.

I understand that BB has used a safety as the fifth DB frequently over the years, but I don't recall past usage being nearly as extensive/constant as in 2010 - which I believe was borne more of necessity than preference. I could see BB spending a pick (though not before, say, #74) on another CB whose coverage might match/exceed Wilhite's/Butler's IF his run support definitely does. But this would fall in the realm of "improving tactical options" rather than "major upgrade."

 

[dryheat44]

The Pats have Arrington, Wilhite, and Butler behind Bodden and McCourty. Wilhite and Butler are both more than adequate as slot corners. They have also used Chung and Meriweather in the slot when they've gone to the "Big Nickel"

So, I'm curious as to why you think they need a slot corner.

Well, Wilhite is set to make 1.2 million in base salary this year, so I doubt he makes the team -- at least not at that figure. I think Butler will be dangled in trade scenarios during the draft, and even if not, he may not be a lock to make the team.

So while I don't think it's a huge priority, and certainly not to the tune of drafting 3, including the slowest cornerback in combine history (and one of the shortest to boot), if the value is right, I think BB would take a corner fairly early.

 

[FredFromDartmouth]

...and Wheatley was 5'10" 187, a far cry from 6'1" 168. Trust me, Van Dyke looks and moves nothing like Wheatley -- or like any NFL football player I've seen, for that matter.

What I meant was being a thin stick figure. Wheatley has delicate bird-like bones.

Are there any videos of Van Dyke? I saw one where he made an INT but he was out of position and the ball was tipped to him.

 

[BornNraisedWhoDat]

Hi guys, Saints fan here. I enjoy coming and lurk on your boards from time to time. I feel Patriots fans are some of the most knowledgable fan bases out there when it comes to football (If u dont believe me, go and check out the Falcons boards )

Anyway, I am in the process of doing my official mock draft and I have a few questions:

- What are some of the Patriot's tendencies when drafting players? Are they a Best Player available type of team, do they draft for needs, are they aggressive as far as trading up for a player they want, do they usually go defense in the 1st round?

- What are some of the needs the Patriots have? Some people have you guys getting an RB, but I just dont see it. Is Green-Ellis not performing up to par?

- Would Belichick ever take a WR in the 1st round?

Thanks guys, I'll check back later, hopefully you guys can help me answer some of these questions.

 

[Don Kipines]

Hi guys, Saints fan here. I enjoy coming and lurk on your boards from time to time. I feel Patriots fans are some of the most knowledgable fan bases out there when it comes to football (If u dont believe me, go and check out the Falcons boards )

Anyway, I am in the process of doing my official mock draft and I have a few questions:

- What are some of the Patriot's tendencies when drafting players? Are they a Best Player available type of team, do they draft for needs, are they aggressive as far as trading up for a player they want, do they usually go defense in the 1st round?

- What are some of the needs the Patriots have? Some people have you guys getting an RB, but I just dont see it. Is Green-Ellis not performing up to par?

- Would Belichick ever take a WR in the 1st round?

Thanks guys, I'll check back later, hopefully you guys can help me answer some of these questions.

I love these questions. I'm sure we all can give you some pointers about Patriots/Belichick drafting tendencies. Here's what I've noticed after ten years of obsessively following Pats drafts:

1) Belichick routinely drafts guys from schools where his former assistants are head coaches or coordinators, or are close friends of his. The short list includes guys like Pat Hill at Fresno State (think Logan Mankins and James Sanders), Nick Saban (Belichick has drafted Saban guys from Alabama, LSU and Michigan State), Kirk Ferentz at Iowa (although he only drafted one Hawkeye, Mike Elgin), Gary Tranquill (formerly of BC; Pats drafted a couple of BC guys), and then friends of Belichick's like Urban Meyer at Florida (drafted three Gators last year) and Greg Schiano at Rutgers (Devin McCourty). If you dig into most of his draft picks you'll find a buddy of Belichick's in there somewhere -- for instance, the Sebastian Vollmer pick came via Houston University O-line coach Joe Gilbert, who had also coached Nick Kaczur at Toledo.

2) Belichick seems to like players with NFL or pro-athlete bloodlines. A short list of Pats draftees with NFL relatives: Darius Butler (Willis McGahee's cousin), Brandon Spikes (cousin to Takeo Spikes), Dan Klecko, Daniel Graham, Matt Slater, Bo Ruud, and Rob Gronkowski.

3) They like short corners with great forty times (think Ellis Hobbs, Terrence Wheatley, Darius Butler). You hear a lot that the Patriots like guys who just know how to play football, but if you actually look at the record, you'll find they draft a lot of workout height/weight/speed all-stars with spotty college production, people like Bethel Johnson, Matt Slater, Kevin O'Connell, Taylor Price and even Matt Cassel.

Lastly, about once per draft, Bill Belichick will expend a highish draft pick on some dude you've never heard of and isn't even in any of your five draft guides. Around here we call it the obligatory "WTF pick." Probably the all-time "WTF" draft was 2005, when the first three picks were Mankins, Hobbs, and Kaczur, and one of the last picks, Cassel, was a guy who had never even played in college. Other notable "WTF" picks include Jermaine Cunningham (obviously played for a big program, but to a lot of us, a shocking pick for the 2nd round), Vollmer (2nd rounder who wasn't even a combine invite), Wheatley, Matt Slater, and Bethel Johnson.

Personally I get the sense that Belichick is often trying to show how smart he is by picking someone so obscure as to be invisible to conventional wisdom. The weird thing is, Belichick's record with WTF picks is probably a little better than his record drafting more celebrated players like Cedric Cobbs, Laurence Maroney, Chad Jackson and so on.

Hope that helps... let us know whom you end up mocking!

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Howdy WhoDat!

- What are some of the Patriot's tendencies when drafting players? Are they a Best Player available type of team, do they draft for needs, are they aggressive as far as trading up for a player they want, do they usually go defense in the 1st round?

Bill Belichick has a number of goals when drafting:
-- Make the "team" better. He wants bigger, faster, stronger, quicker, more explosive, smarter, disciplined, harder working, high football IQ players at each position. Mobile, agile, hostile, quick twitch Field Generals at each position, team captain a plus.
-- Position the Patriots for future drafts with extra picks while generating extra picks for .
-- Manage the Salary Cap by locking in youth, talent, and production at rookie prices for as long as possible.
-- Address weak areas with a boost in quality talent.

To succeed with these various goals NE does not aggressively trade up in the early rounds, they will trade up for a player they want, but rarely more than a short jump, and more often than not they trade back and accumulate extra picks in this draft and for future drafts. They will trade up more aggressively in the later rounds.

NE players eat, drink, and sleep football. They want gym AND film rats who don't just work on what they do well, but aggressively work on their weaknesses. They have to "play well with others" too.

For rounds one and two, they are after the Best "Patriots" Player Available. Not the guy with the most talent, but the most talented kid who fits the Pats' football culture. Belichick will gamble more with the second pick in the draft, take a shot at talent over Pats culture, but that first pick is for a guy who - for the most part - is going to get it done in a NE uniform. Belichick rarely goes with the trendy choice in draftnik circles, offense, defense, it doesn't matter; count on it, NE surprises the draftniks regularly.

- What are some of the needs the Patriots have? Some people have you guys getting an RB, but I just dont see it. Is Green-Ellis not performing up to par?

Depth, always start with depth as the key "need." WR Wes Welker gets hurt early in the 2009 season, 7th round QB to WR conversion Julian Edelman steps in as a rookie and keeps the chains moving. Tom Brady goes down in the first quarter of the first game in 2008, "I haven't started a game since high school" Matt Cassel puts down the clipboard and scrapes out an 11-5 season. Starting LG Logan Mankins sits out in a contract dispute, former starting RT Nick Kaczur slides inside to replace him and is injured, third man up Dan Connolly steps in to help with a 14-2 season. Depth - NE's number one "need."

Current depth needs" T, G/C, RB, WR, QB, TE on offense, and not necessarily in that order; DL, OLB, ILB, CB, S on defense. Special Teams coverage personnel are always in demand for depth, and it's nice if they can help position depth too, for example: the ILB depth chart is currently four deep for two positions with a fifth Special Teams only LB, if that fifth wheel can be turned into a Nickel/Dime Linebacker for the pass happy NFL, it's a bonus pick.

Taking the above list, it's hard for us to get into the head of Belichick when we can't get into the heads of the kids he's interviewing and working out, so we make our best guess at character/football IQ and look at the talent available. 3-4 DE has some depth in this draft, 3-4 OLB not so much (and Belichick tends to avoid major conversions early), CB is deep, S is weak, RB early is weak, QB early is weak and a lower priority as is TE, etc. You look at a player like J.J. Watt, we know he plays with a high motor and is passionate about football, he has some 3-4 experience, and he's learning a new position and gets better every time you see him. On paper Watt looks like a NE target. Is he too inexperienced? Maybe. The thing Belichick asks of his scouts isn't to catalog weaknesses, but to describe how a player can be used in the NE system.

- Would Belichick ever take a WR in the 1st round?

Yes, but how would he be used? The receiving corps runs through Welker and the Tight Ends, is there a first round WR who can take reps away from the current corps in a 30 points/game offense? Will he play STs? Is there another position who needs depth more (the starting RG just retired and the starting LG is taking his franchise tag to court for the NFLPA's power play)?

Last year everybody swore up and down that NE needed a rush OLB, Belichick drafted a CB who went to the Pro-Bowl as a rookie; he started every game at LCB, barely missed a snap, and he played on STs in coverage and as a reserve KR. He even got a couple Defensive Rookie of the Year votes away from Suh. The moral is, draft the player all the experts pick only if you think there is no better player available. Good Hunting!

 

[patchick]

Lots of good observations, but I disagree with this:

3) They like short corners with great forty times (think Ellis Hobbs, Terrence Wheatley, Darius Butler).

I don't believe BB "prefers" short corners at all -- look at his highest CB pick, McCourty. Rather, he values quickness and agility most, and is willing to sacrifice size if necessary to find that. Asante Samuel is also a good example of quickness, recognition & awareness and ball skills trumping straight-line speed.

IMO the best fit for the Pats profile this year is Brandon Harris. Later possibilities include Buster Skrine, and Ras-I Dowling or Cortez Allen as CB/S tweeners.

 

[BornNraisedWhoDat]

Wow!!! Great great great info Don Kipines, Box_O_Rocks, and patchick!! Mocking the Pats draft will be difficult. A lot of stuff to take into account, that makes it more fun though!!

I saw Box_O_Rocks say you guys could used depth at QB. Do you think Bill will be using Brian Hoyer as trade bait pretty soon?

And what kind of RB's do Bilichick like? (Scat back, Down hill runner, etc) Also, Is Faulk coming back or do you think his days are numbered in NE?

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Wow!!! Great great great info Don Kipines, Box_O_Rocks, and patchick!! Mocking the Pats draft will be difficult. A lot of stuff to take into account, that makes it more fun though!!

I saw Box_O_Rocks say you guys could used depth at QB. Do you think Bill will be using Brian Hoyer as trade bait pretty soon?

And what kind of RB's do Bilichick like? (Scat back, Down hill runner, etc) Also, Is Faulk coming back or do you think his days are numbered in NE?

He's an RFA next year.

Given that the Pats' roster at QB is currently Brady, Hoyer, Jonathan Crompton (practice squad), and Edelman (the "oh, @$$%, what do we do now" quarterback), I don't see Hoyer being traded this offseason. But if they get someone they like in the system this year, I could definitely see him being traded next offseason.

 

[tuckeverlasting]

I love these questions. I'm sure we all can give you some pointers about Patriots/Belichick drafting tendencies. Here's what I've noticed after ten years of obsessively following Pats drafts:

1) Belichick routinely drafts guys from schools where his former assistants are head coaches or coordinators, or are close friends of his. The short list includes guys like Pat Hill at Fresno State (think Logan Mankins and James Sanders), Nick Saban (Belichick has drafted Saban guys from Alabama, LSU and Michigan State), Kirk Ferentz at Iowa (although he only drafted one Hawkeye, Mike Elgin), Gary Tranquill (formerly of BC; Pats drafted a couple of BC guys), and then friends of Belichick's like Urban Meyer at Florida (drafted three Gators last year) and Greg Schiano at Rutgers (Devin McCourty). If you dig into most of his draft picks you'll find a buddy of Belichick's in there somewhere -- for instance, the Sebastian Vollmer pick came via Houston University O-line coach Joe Gilbert, who had also coached Nick Kaczur at Toledo.

2) Belichick seems to like players with NFL or pro-athlete bloodlines. A short list of Pats draftees with NFL relatives: Darius Butler (Willis McGahee's cousin), Brandon Spikes (cousin to Takeo Spikes), Dan Klecko, Daniel Graham, Matt Slater, Bo Ruud, and Rob Gronkowski.

3) They like short corners with great forty times (think Ellis Hobbs, Terrence Wheatley, Darius Butler). You hear a lot that the Patriots like guys who just know how to play football, but if you actually look at the record, you'll find they draft a lot of workout height/weight/speed all-stars with spotty college production, people like Bethel Johnson, Matt Slater, Kevin O'Connell, Taylor Price and even Matt Cassel.

Lastly, about once per draft, Bill Belichick will expend a highish draft pick on some dude you've never heard of and isn't even in any of your five draft guides. Around here we call it the obligatory "WTF pick." Probably the all-time "WTF" draft was 2005, when the first three picks were Mankins, Hobbs, and Kaczur, and one of the last picks, Cassel, was a guy who had never even played in college. Other notable "WTF" picks include Jermaine Cunningham (obviously played for a big program, but to a lot of us, a shocking pick for the 2nd round), Vollmer (2nd rounder who wasn't even a combine invite), Wheatley, Matt Slater, and Bethel Johnson.

Personally I get the sense that Belichick is often trying to show how smart he is by picking someone so obscure as to be invisible to conventional wisdom. The weird thing is, Belichick's record with WTF picks is probably a little better than his record drafting more celebrated players like Cedric Cobbs, Laurence Maroney, Chad Jackson and so on.

Hope that helps... let us know whom you end up mocking!

don't forget the original wtf pick, deion branch. it was at that moment i stopped doing mock drafts and just started looking at them.

 

[Spike]

OverShare Violation.

15 Yards.

Loss of Down.

"Overshare Violation"?