Colts: robert mathis and the cap

[hwc]

Those of you who keep on repeating the cap hell mantra, please tell us how the Colts are looking cap-wise for the 2007/2008/2009 seasons.

They'll be fine...because half of their starting defense and all of their backups will be UDFAs and low-round draft picks in their rookie contracts, just like always.

The Colts' played the 2005 season essentially injury-free. When they have a year with a string of injuries, the complete lack of depth on the roster will be painfully obvious.

 

[spacecrime]

Please tell us when.

(refering to chickens coming home to roost) If you keep pushing money into later years, doesn't the bill eventually come due? Not sure, myself, I rely on your site for all my Pats cap info, and don't really care about gdoing into Colts detail. But it seems to me that the Colts have a LOT of money tied up in big bonuses. Doesn't that bonus money have to be on hte cap, even as salary goes up in later years of the contract?

Also, I just have this internal picture of comparing deferring salary to use of a charge card. I know what happens when I charge big items instead of paying cash.

Like you (I thnk it was you) I don't see the letting go of James as an indicator of cap trouble. I think it was the smart think for the Colts to do, extremely similar to WMG. I do think the loss of James will hurt the Colts more than the loss of WMG will hurt the Pats, but that is pure speculation on my part. We will see in September.

Any idea why the national media continually points out the loss of WMG as hurting the Pats next year but rarely suggests the Colts are hurt by the loss of James?

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Please tell us when.

I can't predict the future but I can do simple math. The more money they put on the old credit card in these multiple deals while artificially benefitting from the minimum present day hit, the more risk they run that one or more of these guys big bonus guys can't finish out a deal and or won't restructure the back loaded salaries and the dead cap will be what really kills them. They won't have the money to replace or the quality depth to fill in in the interim. You can't be a have not and maintain multiple players at or approaching the highest paid in their position and not eventually hit a wall 'cause something's gotta give.

The cap is like death and taxes, can't necessarily predict the day or the hour, but sooner or later it will rear it's ugly head. It almost did them in in 2006. Took not just an extended CBA but a windfall cap and the passage of a stadium bill in Indianapolis to cover Polian's play and allow him to keep doing business. But if the Colts continue to fizzle out in the post season (or worse) the real problem will surface when Polian or his successor and a new HC can't make due with what has been assembled on this roster - the most expensive of which is signed through 2010 or so, or afford to substantially add to it or reshape it to fit another scheme. If and when that happens, Irsay won't be able to put fannies in seats in the shiny new Lubradome and bonus money will again become an issue too.

The Polian/Manning overwhelming offense era is entering year 9 with nothing but some division banners and regular season frontrunner hype to show for themselves. Dungy is in year 4 post couldn't get it done in Tampa either. I'm thinking 2008 could be when Armageddon hits in the Heartland. And we could all be facing the Deion Rule part deux by then if the union opts out of this latest CBA. And either way there won't be another cap windfall until the TV contracts come up for renewal again in 2012.

I respect what you do and the effort you have put in to understanding the way the NFL cap works. But at the end of the day all capology is is creative bookeeping. Unless someone comes along and wipes the slate clean (say like an uncapped NFL) all the bookeeping in the world won't absolve teams from facing the cap charge for the contracts they award eventually. If they have failed to win one in the process it's usually the next poor stiff in the GM line who has to face the music and clean up their mess.

Belioli seem to be shifting their efforts to the pay as you go method for their highest priced talent and designing contracts that will allow for realistic extensions or less financially painful and acrimonious seperations. I have a feeling when they go their successors will have no one to blame but themselves if they can't deliver at least a competitive product, because they won't be in cap hell or saddled with a top heavy or lopsided payroll and they will have some flexibility to maneuver.

But I don't have a crystal ball or access to the Colts cap data any more than you do. So it's just a common sense based opinion on my part.

 

[shakadave]

In the 2004 regular season the Colt's PA was unstoppable, leading to Manning's record 49 TD's. Then in the playoff, one of the Patriots players--I can't remember who, but I think Rodney Harrison--said on the record that they had found something, some giveaway, in the Colt's PA.

Fascinating, but what's PA? Passing attack? Play action?

 

[shakadave]

A one dimensional (All Offensne) team which had no Defense in the first place then lost two of its best defenders.

And Marvin Harrison is 35,

a) Small point, but I think Harrison is 34

b) Big point: "no defense"??? The Bears allowed fewer points than the Colts last season. No other team did.

 

[Miguel]

But I don't have a crystal ball or access to the Colts cap data any more than you do. So it's just a common sense based opinion on my part.

Well, my opinions based on facts and common sense led me to be one of the few
1.) in the spring of 2004 to predict that Law would be a 2004 Patriot.
2.) to predict that Brady would sign an extension without a CBA extension
3.) to predict that Seymour would get a big money deal from the Pats
4.) to predict that Adam would go to the Colts.

I will put my track record on salary cap predictions up against anyone here on this board and feel rather confident. It says here that all of this talk about the Colts reaching cap hell is based on hope and not facts.

Let the record show that no one projecting cap hell for the Colts has ever supported their argument with details about the Colts' future cap positions.

 

[Miguel]

(refering to chickens coming home to roost) But it seems to me that the Colts have a LOT of money tied up in big bonuses.

How much money do the Colts have tied up in signing bonus money??
How does that money compare to the rest of the NFL??

Doesn't that bonus money have to be on hte cap, even as salary goes up in later years of the contract?

Yes. But as long as the players with the big signing bonuses play at a high level that bill will not come due.

Also, I just have this internal picture of comparing deferring salary to use of a charge card. I know what happens when I charge big items instead of paying cash.

It is not the same thing.

Like you (I thnk it was you) I don't see the letting go of James as an indicator of cap trouble. I think it was the smart think for the Colts to do, extremely similar to WMG.

It is so funny. If the Colts had kept James, the Colts would be ripped for having so much money tied up in their offense. They let James go and they are considered to be in cap hell. So it was a lose-lose proposition for the Colts with James.

any idea why the national media continually points out the loss of WMG as hurting the Pats next year but rarely suggests the Colts are hurt by the loss of James?

It is not just WMG. It is other big names like Adam and Givens and also depth (Fauria, Chatham, Flutie, Andre Davis, Tim Dwight, Stone).

 

[Krazy Koz]

Let the record show that no one projecting cap hell for the Colts has ever supported their argument with details about the Colts' future cap positions.

By that same logic, shouldn't you have to support your argument that the colts are not "cap hell" with details and these "facts?†Also, there’s no need to get arrogant, ****y, nor defensive were all rooting for the same team here aren't we?

 

[Miguel]

And we could all be facing the Deion Rule part deux by then if the union opts out of this latest CBA.

Why would the union opt out of this latest CBA??Even so, the Deion rule would not likely affect Manning and Harrison's deals because of the high salaries.

 

[Miguel]

By that same logic, shouldn't you have to support your argument that the colts are not "cap hell" with details and these "facts?” Also, there’s no need to get arrogant, ****y, nor defensive were all rooting for the same team here aren't we?

Fact - The Colts are under currently under the cap by $9 million.
Fact- Since the Colts signed Manning to his deal, they have reached deals with Harrison, Wayne, Simon, Adam and Stokley.
Fact- After this year there is a total of $18.3 million on unamortized signing bonus proration left on Brady's contract.
Speculation - After this year there could be a total of $18.4 million on unamortized signing bonus proration left on Manning's contract.
Fact - If the union or the owners decide to end this CBA early, there will be an uncapped year.
Speculation - If the Colts are going to be in cap hell, they would love to see an uncapped year because it is a get out of jail card.
Speculation - Colts will suffer a great deal of injuries

 

[Miguel]

By that same logic, shouldn't you have to support your argument that the colts are not "cap hell" with details and these "facts?”

IMO, the burden of proof is on the other side. With the increase in the cap it is going to be very difficult for teams to get into cap hell. It will take a perfect storm for teams to do so. Heck, it is difficult for teams now to use all of their cap space. And if teams do not spend 59% of the total revenue on players this season, the cap will be further increased for the 2007-2011 seasons.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

Far be it from me to suggest that the truth is in the middle here. I don't think the Colts dumped James because they think he is just not a very good back... it's a cap move. So I do think the Colts were reacting to the sorts of principals we're used to as Pats fans. They did not want to see their triplets broken up, but Irsay has evidently decided that for both the short-term and long-term future, the value they put on James is surpassed by what he can get on the open market. Same with Larry Tripplett and David Thornton. If the Colts have been risking "cap hell," this is pretty much it: letting go some stars, feeling the pain, and moving on - huh. That sounds familiar. (Note: I am a convert to this belief, having been invited to weigh the Colts' moves objectively by our local cap guru on an earlier occasion.)

As far as "We lose _______ and the press says _______, they lose ________ and the press says ________," I think I've seen more positives on the Pats' cap philosophy than I ever have on the Colts. Even just this year, I see more press on the Colts' "window closing" than I do on the Pats' "dynasty ending." The Pats are still at the top of the heap according to the preseason casino odds - a team that didn't even go past the divisional round of the playoffs.

Indy is going through pain, intentionally, before it's absolutely necessary... it is what it is, but it is not irresponsibility. I hope Joseph Addai is not even close to what they need to start over at RB, I really do. Either way, he won't be another Edge... certainly not yet.

PFnV