Colts Franchise Tag Freeney

[Rob0729]

I ask for the third time - what did the 2006 cap have to be for the Colts to have been in cap hell last year??

I ask for the second time - what is reasonable to presume that the CBA would be extended??

All that had to happen was contract talks to break off and the CBA to stand like it was for the Colts to be in minor cap hell. They were over the cap if the league and players decided not to agree with several key free agents to sign. It was a semi-realistic posibility last year that the new CBA wouldn't have gone through and Vinatieri and a few others would be playing for another team.

It was reasonable to assume the CBA would be extended, but the new cap numbers exceeded even most optimistic estimates of the increase. Few people expected that the cap would initially jump as much as it did. Most people felt it would be a more gradual growth. Anyone who believes Polian knew when he signed Manning and Harrison to his deals that the cap in 2007 would be over $100 million is kidding themselves. Very, very few believed the cap would get that big that fast.

 

[Rob0729]

FWIW - It has already been announced that the 2008 cap will be $116 million, a $7 million increase over the 2007 cap.

I said in a few years. I knew the cap jumped exponentially for the first three years, but from what I read that is a three year correction for all the additional money streams added to the CBA and year four and beyond the cap increases would move more to the typical increase that we before the new CBA. The cap can't continue to grow at $7 million a year or Ralph Wilson will be right and this league will turn into Major League Baseball where you will have teams that can spend to the cap and small market teams that can't spend anywhere near the cap.

At a $7 million a year increase, the cap will be over $150 million by 2012. No way can teams like Buffalo, Cincy, Jacksonville, and other small market teams support that type of cap that fast. I am willing to bet that the 2009 increase will be $3-4 million.

 

[solman]

I said in a few years. I knew the cap jumped exponentially for the first three years, but from what I read that is a three year correction for all the additional money streams added to the CBA and year four and beyond the cap increases would move more to the typical increase that we before the new CBA. The cap can't continue to grow at $7 million a year or Ralph Wilson will be right and this league will turn into Major League Baseball where you will have teams that can spend to the cap and small market teams that can't spend anywhere near the cap.

At a $7 million a year increase, the cap will be over $150 million by 2012. No way can teams like Buffalo, Cincy, Jacksonville, and other small market teams support that type of cap that fast. I am willing to bet that the 2009 increase will be $3-4 million.

I'll take that action. Buffalo doesn't have to support its team. The equally distributed national TV revenues more or less do that for them. Also, I expect there to be an additional resolution on revenue sharing by that time (or alternatively open warfare amongst the owners).

 

[solman]

Several years??? The Ravens were in cap hell a year after their Super Bowl victory and they were able to be serious SB contenders last year.

This sounds exactly like the drunken sailor spending comparison that was made last year by this board to contend that the Patriots would have a serious advantage in free agency this year. I said last year that there would be a good number of teams beside the Pats with cap space this year and that the 2007 FA class would not be as good as the 2006 FA class.

1. There is always a trade off between how deep you cut, how permanent the escape from cap hell is, and how long you spend there. It does amaze me how well the Ravens did in 2002 (When I would say they were in the deepest trouble). Nonetheless, they now find themselves back in trouble.

In the Colt's case, I am effectively making a prediction that while Polian has Manning at quaterback, he will not be willing to cut deep enough top effect such a rapid turn around. More precisely, I am betting that in the 2008, 2009 and 2010 seasons, the Colts will not win more than 1 playoff game. I'd be happy to take additional action on this proposition.

2. If somebody last year said that the Patriots would have a serious advantage in FA this year, they were right. If they said that the Patriots would be the best positioned team in the league, they were wrong.

3. I admit that it is difficult to impossible to predict the quality of the 2008 FA market. Nonetheless, its clear that this year's market is terrible, and its clear that the sudden cap increase is primarilly responsible. I think it is very reasonable to predict that between 2007 and 2009, the slower rate of cap increases (and the continued renegotiation of old contracts) will result in better FA markets (notwithstanding the continued trend to lock up ones own players). If 2008 is as bad as (or nearl as bad as) 2007, you can take it as proof I was wrong.

For the record, I see there being fairly linear cap increases going forward. I disagree with other posters who are predicting $3-4M increases.

 

[pats1]

Can Tom also agree to a restructuring to lower his cap hit a la Peyton? We should keep ahead of the Colts. Go Pats:rocker:

How would doing that help to "keep ahead of the Colts?"

The money that is restructured doesn't just go away. It's added Peyton's already-obscene salaries in the coming years. He might not see those, but if they reach a new deal with him in the next few years, they'll be paying both the bonus money they pushed back AND whatever new money he gets.

 

[spacecrime]

The price of that talent will be several years of mediocre Colts football.

Several years??? The Ravens were in cap hell a year after their Super Bowl victory and they were able to be serious SB contenders last year.

Isn't that several years?

Doesn't anyone remember what the Ravens did to their team in 2001? IIRC (never a sure thing) they cut about 9 of their 11 defensive starters, and close to that on offense.

I would NEVER want the Pats to do what the Ravens and Titans did several years ago.

 

[solman]

Ravens FO views on cap hell.

Several years??? The Ravens were in cap hell a year after their Super Bowl victory and they were able to be serious SB contenders last year.

Not that they're necessarily correct about their own situation, but I found this post which describes their views on the subject:

]Newsom: No Quick Fix For Ravens
Wednesday, January 31, 2007; Page E02

The Baltimore Ravens will approach personnel decisions in the offseason with hopes of sustaining this season's success for a number of years rather than sacrificing their future for a run at the Super Bowl next season, General Manager Ozzie Newsom said yesterday at a news conference in Owings Mills, Md.

Newsom said the organization learned from flawed approaches to the 2001 and 2004 seasons, ones that followed a Super Bowl championship and division title, respectively, but fell short of expectations.

"We basically mortgaged the future after [winning the Super Bowl]," said Newsom, who sat alongside owner Steve Bisciotti and Coach Brian Billick. "We're not going to do that this time."

That means the team won't dole out exorbitant contracts to all-pro linebacker Adalius Thomas, who is facing unrestricted free agency, or running back Jamal Lewis, whose future with the team is uncertain.

 

[Rob0729]

I'll take that action. Buffalo doesn't have to support its team. The equally distributed national TV revenues more or less do that for them. Also, I expect there to be an additional resolution on revenue sharing by that time (or alternatively open warfare amongst the owners).

Even with additional dispersments of TV revenue, the Bills can't compete for top free agents this year. They are going to lose Nate Clement because they can't afford to give him the $13-18 million signing bonus he is asking for and will probably get. Small market teams will not be able to support a $150 million cap because of the signing bonuses. If the cap reaches $150 million, top free agents will get $15-25 million singing bonuses with some regularity. A team like Buffalo cannot generate that much cash on hand to pay the bonuses no matter what additional TV revenue they get.

The league will be forced to slow the cap growth or teams like Washington will spend to the cap and teams like Buffalo will spend to the league minimum. The league will become Major League Baseball. Daniel Snyder can shell out $15 million signing bonuses without batting an eye and will become the NFL version of the Yankees.

You aren't looking at the big picture. It isn't the TV revenue it is cash on hand. The larger the cap, the more money each team has to pay out up front for each free agents. Small market teams are getting to the point already where they can't compete for top free agents because they can't afford the bonuses. I expect the league to slow down the cap increases after next year because of this.

 

[solman]

Isn't that several years?

They won their division in 2003. It is a genuinely impressive turn around because they were completely screwed going into 2002.

You could argue that one reason they were able to do this is that they spent all of their money on one side of the ball at the time. Its much cheaper to improve substantially on one side of the ball if your starting point on that side is absolutely miserable. If there is any validity to that argument, I imagine that it also applies to the Colts.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

How did you come up with that figure??

The same way PFT did - an edumacated guess. Franchise tag we know + exclusive estimate + remaining amortization from voided contract years = $11M+.

 

[pats1]

The suggestion was actually that if DF was signed to a long-term deal before he voided the deal then the Colts would have been able to prorate prior signinb bonuses (200/2003/2004) over the 2007 and 2008 seasons.

How would that work?

 

[solman]

Even with additional dispersments of TV revenue, the Bills can't compete for top free agents this year. They are going to lose Nate Clement because they can't afford to give him the $13-18 million signing bonus he is asking for and will probably get. Small market teams will not be able to support a $150 million cap because of the signing bonuses. If the cap reaches $150 million, top free agents will get $15-25 million singing bonuses with some regularity. A team like Buffalo cannot generate that much cash on hand to pay the bonuses no matter what additional TV revenue they get.

The league will be forced to slow the cap growth or teams like Washington will spend to the cap and teams like Buffalo will spend to the league minimum. The league will become Major League Baseball. Daniel Snyder can shell out $15 million signing bonuses without batting an eye and will become the NFL version of the Yankees.

You aren't looking at the big picture. It isn't the TV revenue it is cash on hand. The larger the cap, the more money each team has to pay out up front for each free agents. Small market teams are getting to the point already where they can't compete for top free agents because they can't afford the bonuses. I expect the league to slow down the cap increases after next year because of this.

1. I view all the whining coming out of Buffalo right now as posturing by the Bills in advance of continued discussions over revenue sharing. Things have gotten fairly acrimonious between the Bills and Patriots ownership.

2. The new CBA penalizes teams who pay lots of signing bonuses by lowering their cap for the duration of the agreement. If this is a big problem, then its being addressed (I believe quite effectively).

3. These franchises are worth huge amounts of money. If the Bills ownership can't figure out a way to finance a $20M signing bonus for 4-5 years, then either they have WAY too much debt or Kraft is right about their lack of business accument.

4. The league has already agreed to the Salary cap for at least the first four years of the CBA (through 2009 after which I think both sides get an option to terminate). When the salary cap is renegotiated, I doubt very much that the percentage of gross will go DOWN. It should increase modestly. If the Bills want to fix their finances through the league, they're going to have to focus on increased revenue sharing (hence the posturing).

My guess is that substantial additional revenue sharing will occur, and that the only questions are of magnitude and mechanism.

 

[Miguel]

. I am willing to bet that the 2009 increase will be $3-4 million.

How much?????

 

[Miguel]

How would that work?

Simplest example.
His $100,000 signing bonus in 2004 would count $20,000 against the 2007 cap and $20,000 against the 2008 cap.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

PFT reports another DE has been tagged according to ESPN. That will likely up the exclusive ante for Dwight, I presume.

"The New Orleans Saints reportedly will apply the franchise tag to defensive end Charles Grant, according to ESPN.com.

Grant will receive a one-year tender offer worth $8.66 million. If he accepts the tender, it is fully guaranteed. The Saints have the ability to withdraw the tender until it is accepted.

The 2002 first-rounder will be the fifth player hit with the franchise tag in less than a week. "

Over on Indy Star the Colts fans, as usual, are ignoring the fact that Freeney's tag has been confirmed as exclusive, and have no idea he had remaining amortization on his tab. Uncle Bill has conditioned them to care about nothing other than how low he can work that first year cap hit on a new deal.

 

[Yankees/Colts]

We're DOOMED. :rocker:

I've been hearing this same tale from Pats fans for years. It sustains them through the offseason at least. But, the funny thing is, you lose key players seemingly year after year and we do not. But you spin this same tale constantly. Polian is very good at the cap. Get used to it.

- Depending upon the resolution of the Corey Simon, Reagor and Stokely situations, the Colts could have more money.
- You act as if there's no chance the high end years of Peyton's contract or Harrison's contract will be restructured.
- The cap continues to rise.
- You act as if, like Edgerrin James, no high priced veteran will ever be transitioned into a good young player like Joseph Addai.(I heard this tale last year when Pats fans said Manning would be nothing without Edgerrin James.) Nick Harper's replacements, for instance, are already on the roster, Hayden and Marlin Jackson. They made the big plays in the playoffs. Freddy Keiaho is ready to go for June.

This team is simply structured differently than your team and that's something, I think, you fail to grasp. Peyton Manning is the key. Peyton carried this team for 16 games this season and for most of the last nine years. As long as Peyton is there and a small handful of other players, this will be the same team. The Colts have made the playoffs virtually every year of Peyton's career with only a handful of the same players throughout. They went 13-3 in 1999 and, off the top of my head, Peyton, Marvin Harrison, Tarik Glenn and Hunter Smith were the only Colts who started on that team who were on the Super Bowl winning team

 

[Yankees/Colts]

Over on Indy Star the Colts fans, as usual, are ignoring the fact that Freeney's tag has been confirmed as exclusive, and have no idea he had remaining amortization on his tab. Uncle Bill has conditioned them to care about nothing other than how low he can work that first year cap hit on a new deal.

:rocker:

Pats fans are awesome!

 

[MoLewisrocks]

We're DOOMED. :rocker:

I've been hearing this same tale from Pats fans for years. It sustains them through the offseason at least. Nah, polishing the Lombardi's sustains us, picking on Polian just helps us kill time.But, the funny thing is, you lose key players seemingly year after year and we do not. Yet we win more often than you do, go figure... But you spin this same tale constantly. Polian is very good at the cap. Get used to it. So are Belioli in case you hadn't noticed.

- Depending upon the resolution of the Corey Simon, Reagor and Stokely situations, the Colts could have more money.Or not, since each will have accelerated dead cap hits. I know you all believe Uncle Bill will just take Corey to court and get all your mis-spent money back, it doesn't work that way. It's arbitration, and the players usually win in the end. And you may need it since unless he gets Freeney re-signed you're at about $3M under this AM after clearing $15M yesterday AM.
- You act as if there's no chance the high end years of Peyton's contract or Harrison's contract will be restructured. Of course they will be, they have to be. But once bonus money is amotrized it can't be restructured. Neither has any bonus money remaining and won't play for free. You can convert those salaries into bonus by guaranteeing all or part of them, but that just pushes them into the future abyss as well. You can also sign Peyton to an extension, but it would apparently have to extend beyond 2012 since Polian has been dumping money into his voidable years as well. And then one day he won't answer the bell, but his dead cap will keep his memory alive for you for a couple of more years.
- The cap continues to rise. And the cap could disappear after 2008, but that won't help you because you will then be a small market team competing against large market teams and billionaires. See Polians comments to that effect yesterday - the Colts can't compete without a cap, and even then they have to manipulate the crap out of it to win a Superbowl once in Manning first 9 seasons. And if a cash over cap penalty in instituted to save a capped system, you will lose cap space for abusing the bonus system.
- You act as if, like Edgerrin James, no high priced veteran will ever be transitioned into a good young player like Joseph Addai.(I heard this tale last year when Pats fans said Manning would be nothing without Edgerrin James.) Nick Harper's replacements, for instance, are already on the roster, Hayden and Marlin Jackson. They made the big plays in the playoffs. Freddy Keiaho is ready to go for June.

This team is simply structured differently than your team and that's something, I think, you fail to grasp. Oh no, we get it. Peyton Manning is the key. Peyton carried this team for 16 games this season and for most of the last nine years. As long as Peyton is there and a small handful of other players, this will be the same team. Apparently Dungy took a page out of BB's book on teambuilding and decided it could not remain all about Peyton, which is how you finally won. The Colts have made the playoffs virtually every year of Peyton's career with only a handful of the same players throughout. They went 13-3 in 1999 and, off the top of my head, Peyton, Marvin Harrison, Tarik Glenn and Hunter Smith were the only Colts who started on that team who were on the Super Bowl winning team

They made the playoffs in 6 of his 9 seasons, although they struggled to win a playoff game until year 6. They were thought to have cleared that hurdle in 2003 winning in the WC and division rounds before Peyton threw 4 picks to end that season. Then they slipped back to one and done in 2004 because it snowed. 2005 they somehow turned domed HFA throughout to one and done dispite the officials valient efforts to hand them the game. And of course, it was always the defenses fault, with honorable mention to the Oline, Edge and the incredible disappearing Marvin. But finally after 9 long years Polian's upwards of $90M investment in him, you waltzed past the team that crawled into the WC, you had a kicker carry you through the division round, the flu and Bob Sanders leveled your perceived impediment in the championship round and your defense flumoxed the hapless Rex Grossman as a rookie RB and a JAG RB toted the rock, and Peyton somehow collected the SBMVP. No wonder Rhodes was drinking.

You are up against the cap, have a boatload of UFA and RFA, pick last in the first round of the draft and not again until the end of day 1, your HC is likely gearing up for his swan song, but you'll be fine. We know from recent history how easy defense of title seasons unfold. Let alone one Polian engineers... After all, look how many teams repeat... :rocker:

And hey, thanks for the compliment. Colts fans are awesome too, in a naive mid-western sort of way.

Edited to thank Ryan and Pats1 for proofing a long one for me. I can add, just struggle to get it typed right sometimes...

 

[RyanTheColtsFan]

They made the playoffs in 2 of his 9 seasons, although they struggled to win a playoff game until year 6. They were thought to have cleared that hurdle in 2003 winning in the WC and division rounds before Peyton threw 4 picks to end that season. Then they slipped back to one and done in 2004 because it snowed. 2005 they somehow turned domed HFA throughout to one and done dispite the officials valient efforts to hand them the game. And of course, it was always the defenses fault, with honorable mention to the Oline, Edge and the incredible disappearing Marvin. But finally after 9 long years Polian's upwards of $90M investment in him, you waltzed past the team that crawled into the WC, you had a kicker carry you through the division round, the flu and Bob Sanders leveled your perceived impediment in the championship round and your defense flumoxed the hapless Rex Grossman as a rookie RB and a JAG RB toted the rock, and Peyton somehow collected the SBMVP. No wonder Rhodes was drinking.

You are up against the cap, have a boatload of UFA and RFA, pick last in the first round of the draft and not again until the end of day 1, your HC is likely gearing up for his swan song, but you'll be fine. We know from recent history how easy defense of title seasons unfold. Let alone one Polian engineers... After all, look how many teams repeat... :rocker:

And hey, thanks for the compliment. Colts fans are awesome too, in a naive mid-western sort of way.

Made the playoffs 2 of 9 seasons? Who are we talking about?

 

[pats1]

Made the playoffs 2 of 9 seasons? Who are we talking about?

I think he meant 6.