Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by jct, Sep 2, 2007.
15 Mil under salary cap
17 Mil in cuts and IR
Yeah they need all that extra money to pay off the refs again.
They need this money to help pay for the future costs of Manning, Harrison and Freeney. I'm sure they will use restructuring and/or LTBE incentives to make nearly all of this money disappear into future years.
Whether by choice or by accident, moving this much money into future years was the right choice for the Colts to make.
WAIT! I thought the sky was falling!!
We made the same choice last year.
That depends on whether or not your Colts can play defense.
We know from last season that they could not. However, they have new blood on the defensive side of the ball. The unit is bigger (hard NOT to get bigger when you replace Jason David). Stronger. Faster. These guys can tackle and hit. League worst in run defense last season, something like 171 ypg. How much will you wager that the Colt defense performs better than that this season?
The sky is falling relates to fans everywhere saying the Colts time is up, that their salary numbers are getting ready to come back and bite them. Well, so far, that has not rang true. Looks like everyone's favorite GM still has it.
BTW, are you impressed with YOUR GM's job in this past offseasons draft? You re-tooled with free agency, and doesn't look like you gained much from the draft. Are the Pats that deep, or were they so-so draft selections?
1) I agree with you regarding the improvement in the Colt's run defense.
2) This is what we ended up with from our draft choices in the first four rounds.
SF #1 pick in 2008
OAK #3 pick in 2008
I'd say that we did pretty well.
3) We didn't do as well with our lower picks. However, several are still with the squad, three on the IR and one the Practice Squad (so far). Plus we signed a couple of UDFA's, one to the 53-man roster, and one to Practice Squad.
We'll see in three years, but this looks like a pretty good draft.
Moss and Welker were courtesy of the draft not FA and we have two firsts and two thirds next year while you have no firsts. The Patriots deemed it a weak draft for their system and acted accordingly.
For FA you wouldn't take Thomas on your team?
Thanks I'll stick with Pioli.
The Colts defense may have become all that this past offseason, but they also got younger. Much, much younger. I think the inexperience of the defense, plus the loss of Tarik Glenn, will cost the Colts a couple games this year. Player movement and an infusion of youth cost the Pats over the past 2 years. It won't cost them the division, but Indy in my mind will be a peg lower in the AFC pecking order.
Time will tell. The Colts have been like the bizzaro Patriots the past 5 years, maintaining a winner despite giving mammoth contracts to a handful of players. I don't credit Polian so much as Dungy. Dungy has done a superb job at taking late round and undrafted linebackers and defensive backs and developing them into superb role players.
A guy like Freddie Kiaho could replace Cato June without missing a beat. There's also a chance that he's a total liability. Time will tell. In the meantime, you can't blame people for doubting the unproven.
The Pats are that deep, and I am impressed. The Pats knew that in this weak draft class there would be no more than 2-3 rookies capable of making the team. We traded off those picks because making them would be wasteful. We got 2 future picks, a boatload of developmental guys, and potential superstar safety, not to mention Welker and Moss. Even if only Meriweather pans out, it was a superb strategy by the management.
I don't believe that site is not correct. They don't mention ANY of the workout bonus money that players get...And I don't see ANY LTBE bonuses and I'd be amazed if they didn't have LTBE bonuses. Also, How is it that the Colts, who were only 5 million or so above the cap just a few weeks ago, now 15 million under the same cap?
Sorry, but the numbers don't jive.
I'll wait for Clayton's numbers later here in the week. Those will be more accurate. And its about the only think that Clayton gets right.
There was simply not that much to gain. All of us knew on this board that picks from round 5 and on were long shots, at best, to make this team - even though a number of us wanted them to but alas we are not the front office of a team that has won 3 superbowls this decade. I think I'll go with their take on things.
BB did pretty well, all things considered. This was a very weak draft, so he made moves to avoid that as an issue. Giving up picks for Moss and Welker makes great sense under the circumstances, and pushing that first rounder to next year could be a stroke of genius if Frank Gore goes out for any real time this season.
When you look at the team, it was going to take 1st and 2nd round types of players to make the team at most spots and expect to have real impact. This team got 3 of them if you count the receivers. It's just a matter of this team having all kinds of 'middle class' depth at most positions. Next year could be more interesting, since I think replacements will be needed at LB, CB, WR and a left tackle (to groom for the future) if they can steal one.
So-so it would seem:
The top two draft picks made the 53-man squad. To date the 5th round pick has been re-signed for the Practice Squad, with one 7th and two 6ths placed on IR. That's 6 of 9 draftees still with the team, including the top three draftees.
One 6th round draft pick was claimed off waivers by Dallas. Crap happens.
As of this moment there remains four Practice Squad spots and 2 draftees are unaccounted for: a 6th and a 7th.
It would seem Pioli and Co. did just fine, especially if you factor in all the trading that landed Randy Moss and Wes Welker on the team (cost: one 2nd, one 4th, one 7th), and two first day draft picks added in 2008.
I do hope this wasn't too technical for such a pleasant troll such as yourself?
I understand that experience matters, and really, our run D was so poor that we may not realize how bad our secondary truely was. David and Harper were decent, but their replacements will prove to be better physically. Only time will tell if their relative inexperience will hurt them. At this point, the only rookie starter on defense looks to be Ed Johnson. In the end, my point of view is that they really can't get much worse than last season (regular season version). And even then, they ripped off 9 straight to start the season. I don't blame the pundits and fans for slotting us a spot or two lower, doesn't mean anything one way or the other.
You can credit Dungy for developing those guys, but I don't think Bill is just sitting around the FO, waiting for Dungy to tell him who to draft.
Weak draft? Maybe. Colts kept all their picks, but who's to say that wasn't totally out of necessity? Looks to be great picks, but maybe they end up warm bodies.
Looking forward to a fantastic season, with plenty of nailbiting and a heart stopper or two.
Tarik Glenn, Corey Simon, and Freeney all provided cap relief this off season. I don't know all the specifics, but I think they added up to 9-11mil.
No, not too technical, however, I was intending on viewing the draft in a vacuum. Weak or not, certainly you would hope to select some guys to displace some 2nd or third year career back ups. But hey, I suppose those guys could be that good that the rookies never had a chance, regardless of the selection. Anyone have numbers on how many drafted players actually made their team. What team retained the most, least, etc...
In that light:
- Meriweather in - Hawkins out.
- K. Brown replaced the player lost in a jet ski accident.
- Gutierrez was the undrafted rookie who earned the #3 QB slot which wasn't filled in 2006 until late November by Testeverde - he bumped one of the reserves from last season, but hard to pinpoint which one with all the other changes.
- Oldenburg replaces a Practice Squad OT who "retired" last Spring.
- No telling if the kids on IR would have displaced anyone, speculation here had the 6th round CB making a strong bid for the 53.
There's the breakdown.
The Colts were in a better position to utilize their picks. This draft had several defensive players at value positions who seem good fits for the Colts scheme. With the number of offseason losses, there's plenty of roster space for Pit****, Hughes, etc. The Gonzalez pick was a big score. The Pats were said to be hot on him, but with Walker, Moss, Stallworth, it would be a wasted pick.
As long as Polian remains a GM with the Colts,that team will remain competitive if not dangerous.
Polian is just as good as Pioli when it comes to building a team and keeping it from disaster, Anyone who knows anything about football agrees with this.
The Colts of the Bert Jones,Jeff George and Mike Pagel era have long gone and I don't see it reacurring anytime soon.
The Colts have paid out a lot of signing bonuses to Manning, Harrison and now Feeley. They have to leave cap room to account for the rest of the bonuses still owed to these players. We did the same when we locked up Seymour and Brady. When a team spends that kind of money on key players, other positions will take a hit. The Colts will be just fine.
I have to grudgingly admit that they do a good job evaluating young talent.
And that's the real situation. Who's to say? Bottom line is that 2007 draft's first semester grades will be in by Thanksgiving. The final grades for those still developing or playing a backup role won't be in until Thanksgiving 2008 or even later. Any evaluation of this draft with the exception of those rooks who are immediate, impact starters is premature. The Pats have several starters who were either PS assignees or backups of the full 53 and took 3 or so years to fully develop. But one, Neal, is a mainstay starter on OL and never played college ball.
As with the Colts, it's the unheralded players that provide the needed depth on the team and protect the roster in order to enhance the overall team quality. When all teams learn how to do this proficiently to stay within the cap, the league will have truly reached parity.
I can't believe Manning only has a cap hit of $8.2 million.
My numbers are in line with all of the media reports that I have seen.
Including workout bonus money would not change a player's cap number.
A player gets $110 for each offseason workout session attended. And they can not attend more than 56. 56 *110* 80 players is around 500,000.
The Colts do not typically use LTBE bonuses.
Look at the USAToday salary database.
Freeney's deal freed up cap room.
So did the release of Corey Simon as did the retirement of Glenn.
Also, as a team release vets, cheaper players take their place on the Top 51 list freeing up cap room.
I would love to hear from those who have been predicting cap hell for the Colts ever since Manning signed his contract.
Oops, forgot to append "by much."
I think he converted this year's salary into signing bonus. Lowers this year's cap to about 8 mil, raises the cap to about 20 mil in each of the next three years.
At least that's what I read earlier. I believe it was to free room to franchise Freeney, so they probaly have space now that Freeney is signed.
Basically drafting well is what gets you marquee players virtually for free, for a few years. We've hit on Samuel, though he only got good in his contract year, as well as Warren, Wilfork, Seymour, and, it seems, Maroney. For a few years (coincidentally, the Super Bowl run,) our cap situation was ridiculously good, because we hit the megamillions jackpot with Brady. Then the Pats FO made sure they did not get too attached to guys not worth the coin they were demanding (Law, Milloy, Branch), in the eyes of the FO. Obviously the Colts had the same feeling about, for instance, Cato June. Super Bowls exaccerbate the trend, since people will pay a bit more for a guy with a ring, on the theory, evidently, that there's a contagious condition called Lombardism, which leads people to win super bowls because a guy with a ring is in town (like Branch, Givens, Law, Milloy, Vinatie... oh never mind that last one.)
As much as it galls us, the Colts are doing pretty much what we did, and refusing to be held hostage by contract year players that just scored a ring. They have retirements and departures, and they're biting the bullet and looking to do without. I doubt they make it. It was unexpected that the Pats could. Either a new law is in place, whereby teams get better by subtracting after a super bowl run, or the Pats case was the exception not the rule. I think the latter will prove to be the case.
People mention Harrison, Wayne, Manning, Freeney, et al.... The contrast to the Pats use to be eye-popping, but now instead of two or three guys counting at or north of three mill a year, the Pats have a positively Indianapolian 9 guys. Now granted, the cap is 40% higher than in 2002 (for instance.) But adjusting for inflation just makes it 9 players instead of 6.
These numbers are always in flux, because the total cash a guy is going to make has little to do with how you apply it to the cap. Tom Brady isn't suddenly getting something like 40% less money this year... he's just getting it in later years. He's not going to double his money next year because he's worth twice as much... he just pushed that money forward to get Randy on board. But overall, the Pats have bit the bullet and abandoned the "special cap hits for special players" rule.
How is this happening? Simple. In 2001-2004, we had a lot of JAGS and a lot of diamonds in the rough. In 2007, we have a lot of veterans. We're doing a lot to limit the financial damage of emphasizing veteran pickups. I really like that Welker - the relatively inexpensive WR pickup - got the guaranteed money, while the marquee players all got "prove-it" years. But those "prove-it" years still ain't cheap compared with a talented rookie or 2nd-year player (especially if that young player was not a high-round pick.)
I use to think there was a philosophy that kept the Pats in a certain mold, but that seems to be a philosophy that's honored in the breach, as time goes by (and as an accelerated infusion of new cap money for 5 years suggests locking up talented players at "cheap" 2006/2007 prices, perhaps.)
I think the reality was, we had a lot of good relatively young talent early in the decade... and during that time, it made sense to look at the cap as essentially static.
The cap's dynamic now, inflating every year for the length of the current CBA at rates higher than earlier in the decade (especially the first year.) You should expect that acceleration to hit the league, and of course, that's just what we're seeing. There's a new, larger money supply out there, for basically the same commodity (53 players a team.)
It might be that the Foxboro logic is, if we play this right, we want to make this move toward the bottom, not the top, of the new money acceleration. We don't know what comes after this CBA, it might be uncapped... but we may have figured (basically,) that "now is the time to buy." Not stupidly, mind you... just as a general principal.
The Colts? They're going... "Wow! And we got away with it!" But they're also doing what we're doing -- trying not to get irrationally exuberant about that fact, and working smartly through their recent Super Bowl triumph, so they can move forward with a mindset dealing in years, not months.
I do like that we've retained a decent standard deviation among our players' cap hits. We're far from the worst in the league in terms of inequality, and the curve's still a curve, not a hockey stick. But it's no longer true that we have an essentially "classless" (economically speaking) locker room.
I'm thinking now, that may never have actually been a goal so much as an affectation of youth.
Plus ca change, plus ca la meme chose,
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