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Colorado University study predicts a Romney win

Discussion in 'Political Discussion' started by KDPPatsfan85, Aug 22, 2012.

  1. KDPPatsfan85

    KDPPatsfan85 Rookie

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    #51 Jersey

  2. IcyPatriot

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    #87 Jersey

    Huge uphill climb ... the abortion topic is not helping, If Israel strikes Iran that will not help any either ... but we'll see.
  3. patsfan13

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    Obama is at 45-45% in Gallup and Rasmussen, the distraction de jour isn't affecting anything, Obama is toast. AP has Obama up +1 nationally and their sample was +8 dem and adults not even registered voters. Obama is toast.

    The only thing that might change things is if Israel attacks Iran, then you run into an unpredictable reaction.
  4. Holy Diver

    Holy Diver Rookie

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  5. patsfan13

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    So I went to the CU website to get the info on their model and prediction (note this is a non commercial website, a public university press release):

    Analysis of election factors points to Romney win, University of Colorado study says | University of Colorado Boulder

    They also came up with a prediction for the vote nationally. Big Romney win:


    The number looked familiar to me, so I went back to my prediction made on this site on 7-25 (post #13 on this thread):


    http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/12/927958-you-didnt-build.html#post3083110




    So my spreadsheet analysis of the polls are within .1% of the guys at CU.

    Great Job of them matching my brilliant analysis. :D In both cases we point out the presence of 3rd party votes, but left them off the relative vote.
    Last edited: Aug 23, 2012
  6. Patradomous

    Patradomous Rookie

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    #87 Jersey

    Bambi had a max turnout in 08. He won't come close to that this year.Conversely a lot of Pubs stayed home for lack of enthusiasm for McCain.
    Conservativley if you get 5% less people voting for Obama and 5% voting for Romney. A 10 point swing is more than enough to bring it home for Romney.
    Obamas going to be playing catch up going into the debates. And he'll be desperate.
  7. IllegalContact

    IllegalContact On the Roster

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    its august....

    right now, I do not have a good feeling about romney.......shoulda picked condi rice as a running mate
  8. JackBauer

    JackBauer On the Roster

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    Still cherry picking which polls you accept and trotting out the discredited "sample composition" canard?

    Unreal. I guess you missed the NBC/WSJ poll that had Obama +4 nationally?
  9. patsfan13

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    I would have to look at the internals of course. Are they predicting a dem pub split of +9 again? OOOPS they had to push the dem +6 to give Obama a lead...


    2000 dems +2 turnout
    2004 dems +0
    2008 dems +7
    2010 dems +0

    Do you really think the dems will be +6? Really Jack? :rolleyes:

    My prediction of a month ago is withing .1% of the prediction of the economic model used at Colorado which has worked for 32 years.

    Pretty cool eh Jack...
    Last edited: Aug 23, 2012
  10. JackBauer

    JackBauer On the Roster

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    For the 2,689th time, you are trotting out a canard that I debunked a month ago. Amazing how everyone turns into a statistician around election time.
  11. patsfan13

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    You've never 'debunked anything jackie boy, you merely offer lame partisan spin.

    But on 11-7 you won't have to worry about spin anymore.
  12. JackBauer

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    I certainly didn't, and if it was partisan spin it was conservative as it was written by the conservative Sean Trende on the conservative website Real Clear Politics.

    But then again, you simply dismiss information that doesn't comport with your worldview (e.g. polls that show poor results for Romney), which is the primary reason conversing with you is a complete waste of time.

    As for your last point, for once you are quite right. I envision being able to kick back and watch you throw a temper tantrum that puts your post-Obamacare ruling meltdown to shame.
    Last edited: Aug 23, 2012
  13. KDPPatsfan85

    KDPPatsfan85 Rookie

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    YES LIBERALS, REMEMBER. YOU GUYS VOTE ON NOVEMBER 7th. Thats the 7th. Vote on NOVEMBER 7th!!:D
  14. IllegalContact

    IllegalContact On the Roster

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    just like you
  15. JackBauer

    JackBauer On the Roster

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    Hey there, anklebiter! I'm glad you could regale us with your typical substance-free contributions! If you have an example of my doing as such, please provide it! Thanks!
    Last edited: Aug 23, 2012
  16. patsfan13

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    Bad methodology is bad methodology whether is done by libs or conservatives. I have never met or spoken or read Mr Trende.

    There is a very old saying in the computer world Garbage In, Garbage Out.

    If you for example average a group of polls with bad methodology you get a bad average.


    Other than Gallup and Ras the rest are using turnout models that have dems with the same or greater turnout than 2008. This is silly and not to be taken seriously.

    I have my prediction out there Romney by 6%.

    Why don't you give us YOUR prediction Jack and even perhaps your reasoning as I have done, then on 11-7 we will see who was right and who is gone. :D
  17. JackBauer

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    OK. So it's your position that we should trust a guy who can't write in coherent English over statisticians who do this for a living? That's your argument? I can see how that would make sense as you view all the pollsters being in cahoots to prop up Obama.
  18. patsfan13

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    I have my prediction Jack where is yours?

    Cmon Jack show some guts for a change and give us YOUR take quit hiding behind lib polls.

    BTW the CU guys who have a perfect record for 30+ years came to the exact conclusion I have.

    Not bad for a bad typist eh Jack. :singing:
  19. IcyPatriot

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    #87 Jersey

    My favorite guy for this is karl Rove ... guy is a genius.

    Right now he has it ... 257 Obama/Lean Obama to 182 Romney/Lean Romney.

    Toss up 99 so Romney would have to get all his leans and 88 toss ups.

    This election is Obama's to lose and he's playing it pretty safe so far.

    Obama needs all his leans and 1 state from Ohio, Virginia, Florida, North Carolina.

    [​IMG]
    Last edited: Aug 23, 2012
  20. Gainzo

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    My favorite part of this thread is 13 calling the University of Colorado, "Colorado University."

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