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Cold hard facts: Classified U.S. Intelligence assessment of Iraq

Discussion in 'Political Discussion' started by Fogbuster, Apr 28, 2007.

  1. Fogbuster

    Fogbuster Rookie

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    The consequences of a U.S. withdrawl from Iraq before that nation has a stable government:

    (Speaking first here on Vietnam, then about Iraq)

    ... For most Americans, the consequences (of the Vietnam loss) were minimal. The vast majority of the 2.8 million of us who fought and bled there mourned the loss of 58,253 of our comrades, swallowed the bitterness of defeat, and got on with our lives. Our nation spent a few hundred million tax dollars on refugee relief and resettlement -- and tried to forget what people in Mr. Reid's party called "the long nightmare of Vietnam."

    But classified U.S. intelligence assessments, military contingency plans and staff studies evaluating the consequences of a precipitous U.S. withdrawal from Iraq, coupled with the lack of funding for political reform measures -- as contained in the legislation just passed by Mr. Reid's party -- paint a far more dismal picture than anything that happened after Vietnam:

    Within months, an immediate upsurge in vicious sectarian violence fomented by Iranian intervention on behalf of Shi'ite militias and Wahhabi-supported, al Qaeda-affiliated terror groups. [highlight] As U.S. forces retreat to a half-dozen staging areas for retrograde through Kuwait and Jordan, American casualties will dramatically increase from suicide bombers seeking "martyrdom" in their victory. [/highlight]

    Inside of 18 months, the fragile, democratically elected government in Baghdad will collapse, precipitating a real sectarian civil war and creation of Taliban-like "regional governments" that will impose brutal, misogynistic rule throughout the country. The ensuing flood of refuges into Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria, Turkey and Iran will overwhelm relief organizations, creating a humanitarian disaster making what's happening in Darfur pale by comparison.

    more:
    http://www.washingtontimes.com/commentary/onorth.htm


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    Last edited: Apr 28, 2007
  2. mikey

    mikey Rookie

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    Cold hard facts from Oliver North, the convicted liar?


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    Last edited: Apr 29, 2007
  3. Fogbuster

    Fogbuster Rookie

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    You've always told the truth in your life?? Never once told even a little white lie??? Ever??? (Even to save a million people from extermination by a communist regime???)



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  4. PatsFanInVa

    PatsFanInVa PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Hey Fog, here's something to exercise your brain (in addition to learning the name "Democratic", which evidently you have confused with an individual you just have a hate-on for...)

    1) You stipulate terrible, terrible damage from a precipitous withdrawl.

    2) "Mr. Bush's party" complains time and again that we can not put a time table on withdrawl.

    3) ...and then immediately goes on the attack, using the rubric that the timetable is too precipitous.

    Put up or shut up. What is your preferred timetable, Fog? When should our troops leave?

    You know, those guys who are your neighbors and coworkers and their kids in some cases, when should they be allowed out of this war we put them in, under false pretenses?

    Oh I know... the day after the inauguration, so Bush doesn't ever have to say he withdrew.

    Get stuffed with your obfuscatory tactics. You don't want our troops out and neither does North.

    PFnV
  5. Fogbuster

    Fogbuster Rookie

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    Since your mind about people who disagree with you is already made up, I'm not going to argue with you.

    But I will say this: My "time-table" is when Iraq is secure enough to stand on its own two feet without the need for our security forces to do the work of keeping the democracy stable, then U.S. troops should be on the next flight home. No sooner and no later.

    That's also my reading of the Bush "time table".

    Your cynicism toward the motivation and purpose of this endeavor is baseless. You project your own hopelessness toward the cause of policing terrorists and world jihadists. That's wrong. There is a way to stop terror, but it is definitely NOT by simply turning away. They have an agenda: world domination. Read their stuff. You seem to have a blind spot about that, much like those who pooh-poohed communism -- like Jimmy Carter. Evil only backs down when it knows it cannot possibly win. Just ignored and left alone -- as we did for more than 20 years with the jihadists -- it will NEVER back down.

    I've got several relatives who volunteered to go to Iraq, including some who may be better than me, and if I had my way in the beginning of all of this they never would have gone. But when someone is threatening to blow up your house, you do something about it. Walking away is NOT an option because he will follow you home.


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  6. All_Around_Brown

    All_Around_Brown Rookie

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    So the official policy is still "we stand down when they stand up?"
  7. Fogbuster

    Fogbuster Rookie

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    More like: when the can, and when they actually do stand up to the task of policing their own nation, then we pack up. This could happen in gradations, step by step; it doesn't -- and should NOT -- happen all at once. Such is like what happened in Vietnam, there one day, gone the next. Terrible, horrible result.


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  8. All_Around_Brown

    All_Around_Brown Rookie

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    Well, dont we have to decide first who it is we are standing up?? That has yet to occur. Thanks to multiple blunders, we now face the risk of having noone left in the "coalition" but a small minority.

    We have been led by a man with an IQ of a 4 year old into the "fight for our military lives" and this man refuses to use diplomacy. The sad truth to all of this? The result will be our men and women fighting for noone but themselves, while the Blackwater mercenaries fight solely for the oil companies rights to develop (steal) their oil.
  9. Fogbuster

    Fogbuster Rookie

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    First, stop with the silly mis-characterisation of Geo Bush. Nobody graduates from Yale and Harvard Business School as a dunce, no matter who their daddy is.

    Second, we are not there for the oil, not to just take it all for ourselves. We took it from a despot who surely was using it to fund his own nefarious designs to become the new Nebuchadnezzar of Babylon, a total despot who took all who challenged him out and shot them, or sent them to the gallows. Summarily, no trial at all.

    Anyone can see that the new Iraq has been specifically created to allow all factions -- Sunni, Shi'a, and Kurd -- equal access to positions of responsibility. Such responsibility is not as easy as it may seem from the way you describe it. Death threats and attempts at assassination go part and parcel with such positions of responsibility.

    That's what the U.S. -- should be the U.N., in truth -- is there to prevent: a new dictatorship replacing the old one. Geo Bush and Cheney have been clear about that, as was Rumsfeld and anyone else who has explained to the world. Our purpose has been clear from the get go, at least it has been for me.


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  10. mr3putt

    mr3putt Rookie

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    10 years and 50,000 dead later Fog.

    Keep banging that drum.

    You are thankfully an ever diminishing blip on the radar...soon to be lost forever amid the sweeping changes in 2008.
  11. mikey

    mikey Rookie

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    George Bush was accepted to Harvard MBA with a 2.0 GPA.

    Tell me, how many people get into Harvard with a 2.0 GPA?


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  12. mr3putt

    mr3putt Rookie

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    A majority of one.

    Gee last week you said we were there to prevent Saddam from funding suicide bombers. This week it's oil...next week?
  13. Fogbuster

    Fogbuster Rookie

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    OK, Mr. Big Blip, what's YOUR alternative????? What scenario do you see????

    You people who are so freaking quick to point out "all the dead" --- I heard that ******* bullsh!t all throughout the Vietnam war. So finally we listened to it and pulled out. What happened??? At least five million more deaths. What? Those deaths don't count because they "only Southeast Asians"???

    What's your alternative, guy? I really want to know.


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  14. Fogbuster

    Fogbuster Rookie

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    You seem so smart. Have you???



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  15. mr3putt

    mr3putt Rookie

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    I have already pointed out numerous times my preferred strategy for the Iraq quagmire. Other than your concern about "appearing" weak to the insurgients there has been no intelligent objection articulated by you.

    The absurd tangient on the Viet Nam war is only a smoke screen by you to muddy the topic. The degree of death and destruction in Iraq today is a direct function of your precious Kurds, Sunni's and Shias desire to blow the SH!T out of each other daily. AGAIN...this violence is driven by deep religious motivations...not politics. Democracy is MEANINGLESS to these thugs.

    5 million dead in Viet Nam is a bogus figure. You keep including ancillary numbers from Laos and Cambodia and God knows where else. AGAIN..we were not publically engaged anywhere outside of Viet Nam. We were not responsible then or now for what happened. If it were up to you we would still be in those jungles dying today...with the same level of sucess.

    Gunboat diplomacy does not work.
    Not then...not now.

    Singed,

    The Big F'N Blip
  16. All_Around_Brown

    All_Around_Brown Rookie

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    We removed Saddam why?

    was he a threat to his neighbors? Nope

    supporting Al Qaeda? Nope.

    Attacked US interests? Nope.

    Developed WMD? Nope.

    Fogbuster...in your wildest delusion, the best you can come up with is some Biblical BS about his designs to use oil for funding a what????


    Yes, he was a scumbag. He was also a brutal dictator. He tried political opponents in kangaroo courts (sounds eerily familiar, no?). All of that is true. But, he was not anything close to what you are often here mischaracterizing him as.

    He didnt kill millions. You were already shown to be FOS on that one. Now, you are in his head and know what plans he had for the future??

    Puhlese..spare yourself from further embarrassment.
    Get a clue.
  17. Fogbuster

    Fogbuster Rookie

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    No threat to his neighbors???? Ask Kuwait. Ask the Kurds. Ask Israel.

    No threat to the U.S.??? Selling oil under the table for what?? To feed the "poor"??? No, to build up his private coffers. For what?? Another presidential palace??

    Already stated going into Iraq with guns blazing was NOT my first choice. Wasn't ANY choice of mine. But, guess what? We're there and now we have to make the best of it. And the best of it is to make sure the government we leave behind is stable and Western-friendly. Cutting and running at this point is NOT an option. Not if you don't want to see "insurgents" bringing suitcase bombs into Boston Harbor, Manhattan, Chicago, DC, LA, (they will skip San Fran; too many friends there), and Seattle. Poof. No more Patriots on TV. Nor anything else.

    I'm tired of arguing this point. If you don't want to grasp this fundamental reality, don't. Thankfully, the majority of Americans do.


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  18. Fogbuster

    Fogbuster Rookie

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    Yada, yada.

    Still waiting for your counter-proposal. See my previous post. Cutting and running at this point is NOT an option.



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  19. mr3putt

    mr3putt Rookie

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    Cutting and running is not what I proposed AND YOU KNOW IT.

    We will agree to disagree Fog.
    Keep banging that broken drum.

    Watching your boy Tenet on TV?
    The bus is backing up right now...Heads up Cheney!!!!!!!
  20. DarrylS

    DarrylS PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Just because you post the same thing over and over and over and over again there are those of us who believe that George is an idiot, should not have gone into Iraq and should get out of Iraq.. posting an article displaying a view is one thing, then defending it with the same line of crap over and over and over and over and over again makes not sense, this situation is polarized and you are arguing just to argue.
  21. All_Around_Brown

    All_Around_Brown Rookie

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    Of course you are tired arguing a POV that doesnt hold water. I cant imagine how hard it is for you to defend this POS in the WH, let alone his disastrous foreign policy.

    You had never heard of Kuwait until he invaded. Admit it. It is also common knowledge that we sat back and watched his build up of tank divisions and did nothing about it. But thats old history. Okay..he took over a former province. We took Hawaii. Yada yada

    We garnered the world to boot his arse back to Bagdad and he was stripped of any and all force projection capability. Yahoo. We won. Should have been end of story.

    The Kurds. Oh my...you really are a humanitarian. Good god. We are jeopardizing our longstanding relations with Turkey for this little band of shepherds and you are okay with that. Fine.


    Now if it is Israel you are defending then come out and say it. You were trembling that he might use a SCUD on Israel? Or the Supergun?? :rofl:

    Nothing worse in my book than wannabe preachers who preach world war for world peace. Fraud
  22. wistahpatsfan

    wistahpatsfan Rookie

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    What threat to the US did selling oil under the table create? What a friggin stretch that is...very unique!

    Why is cutting and running not an option? Where do you derive that "fact" from? Your whole post is a series of quantuum leaps of faith based on neocon talking points. The majority of Americans want us out of Iraq YESTERDAY. And how the hell would you know what we want from Vilnius or where ever you are?
  23. All_Around_Brown

    All_Around_Brown Rookie

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    I think hes prosyletizing the good word of father moon in Kakastainia IIRC.

    But the oil issue always comes up somehow, even though these people have ardently refused to acknowldge, since day 1, that oil was ever part of the equation. Interesting stretch of truth indeed. But Bush slipped last year when he said we cant let "them" get a hold of the oil wealth to use to attack us.

    So Oil for food was a problem because it gave the oil wealth to the Hussein regime? We are here to save the day though...to distribute it freely to all the Iraqi people generously and without regard to profit.

    No wait...we cant have that. Iran is backing the Shia. Syria backs the Sunni. We cant deal with either with Bush in charge.

    Thus, Since we have few allies remaining there , I guess they are all enemies, which means we will have to keep the oil revenues for ourselves. ;)

    Yippeee, the price of gas will go down in time for my summer vacation!! :woohoo:
  24. Fogbuster

    Fogbuster Rookie

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    Anyway, I'm still waiting for a counter-proposal to the plan I suggested, a plan based upon the assessment of the U.S. intelligence community.

    Neither of you guys or anyone else -- including Nancy Pelosi or Harry Reid -- have offered anything but the usual Bush-bashing. Your counter-proposal so far is:

    "First, let's get rid of Bush; ... then, .... well actually we have no idea. Pull out all our boys..... and ... and.... well.... Actually we are clueless. But we know we want to get rid of Bush! Especially because he talks about God and faith and that kind of stuff. We don't like that." Yada, yada.

    And all that does is stimulate more Dem bashing. Maybe that's what excites you: people bashing people all the time.

    Ho hum. Nothing new around here. Same old same old.


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  25. mr3putt

    mr3putt Rookie

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    Same old same old.

    Bang...bang...bang...thump

    The sound of Foggy in the wilderness........

    UAE...QATAR....JORDAN sound familiar?
  26. sdaniels7114

    sdaniels7114 Rookie

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    From the link: blue is my commentary

    'classified U.S. intelligence assessments' :confused:

    Pardon me if I'm wrong; but how can you speak of something that's classified? Either its ok for private citizens like myself or Mr North to know about and speak of something or its 'classified' and therefore not ok to say for example, publish it in a newspaper, right?

    If this guy's using classified documents to prop up his little Times hit piece, I think its safe to say that he's got zero respect for our laws. Isn't he still on probation for his little arms for hostages adventure? I think Mr North might need to spend a little time with whoever seems to have straightened out Randy Moss. Every time I hear about this guy he's ignoring US law.
  27. wistahpatsfan

    wistahpatsfan Rookie

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    MEMO
    To: Anyone with a brain
    From: Anyone with a brain

    Pull out and let the Iraqis hash it out IS the plan!

    That's it!....

    No more!.........

    Simple plan.

    Pretty much Bush's plan except his version says we stay there and get killed along with everyone else and the same thing happens.
    Last edited: Apr 30, 2007
  28. All_Around_Brown

    All_Around_Brown Rookie

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    My plan would be a little more complex, but the same end result. We need a PEACE SUMMIT, and INTERNATIONAL ENGAGEMENT, an oil law that is TRULY EQUITABLE FOR THE IRAQI PEOPLE to rebuild the mess we've made, and a FEDERALIST SOLUTION AS BIDEN nd many others have outlined.

    [And, for good measure to protect us from the inevitable blowback that we've guaranteed ourselves, we need Bush Cheney and Rove tried for WAR CRIMES in an international court, but of course that wont happen.]

    Fogs plan is to convince everyone that there is no alternative to the daily slog and random killings of this quagmire, which is truly sad coming from a self proclaimed christian man.

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