Coach Bill The Mad (Genius) ~ Trading Back!!

[Off The Grid]

Coach Bill The Mad (Genius) ~ Trading Back!!

For the education of those of you who think that Mad Bill's incessant Trade Backs ~ trading a 3rd for a Deferred 2nd, that sort of thing ~ disappear down some Rabbit Hole...And for the amusement of those who know better...I thought I'd invest a little time in doing some quick and dirty Mathematics.

What I'm going to do here is simply add up the Book Values ~ that's Draft Value Chart Dollars, for those scoring at home!! ~ of the Picks we've ended up with, in recent years, and compare them to what we would've ended up with if Mad Bill had simply stood pat ~ a simple exercise, but I'm kind of curious, myself!!

1 ~ To save myself a lot of work, I'm going to stick to the approximate Book Values of the first 3 Rounds, and I'll also take the liberty of rounding off, if the mood strikes me!!

2 ~ To further clarify things, I'll also include the applicable Trade Downs..and Trade Ups!!

3 ~ I've excluded trades for Players ~ Wes Welker, Matt Cassel, Deion Branch ~ and Comps, of course.

2007

Before All Trade Backs: #24, 28, and 91 = 740 + 660 + 136 = 1536 Points.

1 ~ #28 to Miners for 2008 1st Rounder ~ #07.
2 ~ #91 to Raiders for 2008 3rd Rounder ~ #69.

After Trade Backs: #24 = 740 = 740 Points.

Change = - 796 Points.

2008

Before All Trade Backs: #62 + 94 = 284 + 124 = 408.

1 ~ #7 to Saints for #10 + #78.
2 ~ #69 to Bolts for 2009 2nd Rounder ~ #47.

After Trade Backs ~ And Downs: #10, 62, 78, and 94 = 1300 + 284 + 200 + 124 = 1908.

Change = + 1500 Points.

2009

Before All Trade Backs: #23, 58, and 89 = 760 + 320 + 145 = 1225.

1 ~ #23 to Ravens for #26 (5th Rounder doesn't weigh, here).
2 ~ #26 to Packers for #41, #73, and #83.
3 ~ #47 to Raiders (Again: Later Rounders don't apply, here) for #40.
4 ~ #73 to Jaguars for 2010 2nd Rounder ~ #44.
5 ~ #89 to Titans for 2010 2nd Rounder ~ #47.

After All Trade Backs ~ And Ups + Downs: #40, 41, 58, and 83 = 500 + 490 + 320 + 175 = 1485.

Change = + 260 Points.

2010

Before All Trade Backs: #22, 53, and 85 = 780 + 370 + 165 = 1315.

1 ~ #22 to Broncos for #24 (And Aaron The Navigator!!).
2 ~ #24 to CowBoys for #27 and #90.
3 ~ #44 to Raiders for #42.
4 ~ #47 to Cards for #58 and #89.
5 ~ #58 to Hoosten for #62 (And Zoltan The Space Emperor...of Space!!).
6 ~ #89 to Panthers for 2011 2nd Rounder.

After All Trade Backs ~ And Ups + Downs: #27, 42, 53, 62, and 90 = 680 + 480 + 370 + 284 + 140 = 1954.

Change = + 641 Points.

2011

Before All Trade Backs: #28, 60, and 92 = 660 + 300 + 132 = 1092.

1 ~ #28 to Saints for #56 and 2012 1st Rounder.
2 ~ #60 to Hoosten for #73 and change.
3 ~ #92 to Raiders for 2012 2nd Rounder.

After All Trade Backs ~ And Downs: #33, 56, and 73 = 580 + 340 + 225 = 1145.

Change = + 53 Points.

2012

Before All Trade Backs: #31, 62, and 93 = 600 + 284 + 128 = 1012.

After All Trade Backs ~ So Far!!: #27, 31, 48, 62, and 93 = 680 + 600 + 420 + 284 + 128 = 2112.

Change = + 1100 Points!!

Let's Tally That Up, Shall We??

2007 = - 0796 Points.
2008 = + 1500 Points.
2009 = + 0260 Points.
2010 = + 0641 Points.
2011 = + 0053 Points.
2012 = + 1100 Points.

Total = + 2758 Points!!

That's like getting 4 1st Rounders ~ #26 ~ in 6 years...for FREE!! :rocker:

Put another way...

That's like getting 10 2nd rounders ~ #63 ~ TEN Second Rounders!!! ~ for FREE!!!

So much for those who think that Mad Bill's just hiding those Picks under'is mattress!!

 

[manxman2601]

So just so I understand. We get 10 free 2nd rounders and still get to the superbowl. And people here question BB's approach to the draft.

 

[Snake Eyes]

So just so I understand. We get 10 free 2nd rounders and still get to the superbowl. And people here question BB's approach to the draft.

I like the general approach, I just have issue with how he's used many of the picks.

 

[Metaphors]

While it is difficult to do, you conceptually have to adjust value over time. For example, if I trade 700 points in 2011 and get 800 points in 2012, that +100 point gain realistically doesn't account for the value of having results in 2011 and having a 2nd year vet (instead of a rookie) in 2012.

That being said, your post accurately points out the compounded value of trading in the next year. You take a hit the first year (as you show) but it allows you in subsequent years to get the guys you need in the draft while still trading into the next year. The indefinite 2nd round dividend as others have observed.

The real bonus for the approach is that occasionally you get tremendous value in the next draft and can draft a player you otherwise would have no chance at getting. So while the approach is primarily an annuity (defined value with no downside), it is also a little bit of a lottery ticket or hedge fund against the team you are trading to. All teams trading future 1st round picks think they are on the brink of a deep playoff run. When a team tanks like SF, you get a player like Mayo. Even when a team does well like NO, the extra first still allows you to continue the process into the next draft.

The key to the approach is still getting your guys while keeping the process going. So I understand people criticizing Belichick for player evaluation but I'm totally with you on his intelligent use of trading draft picks.

 

[BradyManny]

Mind boggling. Well done, OTG.

 

[BradyManny]

I like the general approach, I just have issue with how he's used many of the picks.

Some of the missed 2nd rounders kill - especially whiffing on Butler/Brace. That one really hurts.

 

[Snake Eyes]

Some of the missed 2nd rounders kill - especially whiffing on Butler/Brace. That one really hurts.

We could have had Connor Barwin

 

[BradyManny]

We could have had Connor Barwin

True...turns out the board binky that year wasn't so bad after all.

Lesean McCoy also would've been available there, and that would certainly be filling our RB need right now.

But I can't judge the Butler/Brace picks. I was high on both those guys. Heck, I still haven't closed the door on Brace, and I still think Butler might have something to offer in the NFL as a nickel guy somewhere.

Overall, if you look at that round 2 - you see why Belichick likes to stockpile. It affords misses.

So we struck out on 2, but we got Vollmer - which means the 2nd round still provided us one more starting caliber players than the round did for probably 75% of the other teams drafting that day. Not a lot of gems in the 2009 2nd round if you look at it.

 

[mrscruff]

Coach Bill The Mad (Genius) ~ Trading Back!!

Before All Trade Backs: #62 + 94 = 284 + 124 = 408.

1 ~ #7 to Saints for #10 + #78.
2 ~ #69 to Bolts for 2009 2nd Rounder ~ #47.

After Trade Backs ~ And Downs: #10, 62, 78, and 94 = 1300 + 284 + 200 + 124 = 1908.

Change = + 1500 Points.

Great effort. Just a point of clarification, in 2008 #7 has not been figured into the calculation before all trade backs or am I missing something?

 

[ATippett56]

If the New England Patriots find a willing partner, I fully expect either the #27 overall pick or #31 overall pick to be traded in the 2012 NFL Draft.

 

[Arrington Planet]

Great effort. Just a point of clarification, in 2008 #7 has not been figured into the calculation before all trade backs or am I missing something?

The picks obtained because of trades from previous years don't apply to the 1st part (before the trades), but to the 2nd (after the trades).

 

[Water Boy]

Some of the missed 2nd rounders kill - especially whiffing on Butler/Brace. That one really hurts.

There were plenty of teams that would have made the butler pick. I think brace was a little bit of a reach at a position of need. Got to give props for deadrick & love though.

 

[Off The Grid]

Great effort. Just a point of clarification, in 2008 #7 has not been figured into the calculation before all trade backs or am I missing something?

Thank you, Sir!!

Correct!! I don't include #7 in the "Original Picks", because it was of course the San Fran Pick.

The picks obtained because of trades from previous years don't apply to the 1st part (before the trades), but to the 2nd (after the trades).

Perfect explanation!! Thank YOU, Sir!!

 

[Off The Grid]

Coach Bill The Mad (Genius) ~ Trading Back!!

For the education of those of you who think that Mad Bill's incessant Trade Backs ~ trading a 3rd for a Deferred 2nd, that sort of thing ~ disappear down some Rabbit Hole...And for the amusement of those who know better...I thought I'd invest a little time in doing some quick and dirty Mathematics.

What I'm going to do here is simply add up the Book Values ~ that's Draft Value Chart Dollars, for those scoring at home!! ~ of the Picks we've ended up with, in recent years, and compare them to what we would've ended up with if Mad Bill had simply stood pat ~ a simple exercise, but I'm kind of curious, myself!!

1 ~ To save myself a lot of work, I'm going to stick to the approximate Book Values of the first 3 Rounds, and I'll also take the liberty of rounding off, if the mood strikes me!!

2 ~ To further clarify things, I'll also include the applicable Trade Downs..and Trade Ups!!

3 ~ I've excluded trades for Players ~ Wes Welker, Matt Cassel, Deion Branch ~ and Comps, of course.

2007

Before All Trade Backs: #24, 28, and 91 = 740 + 660 + 136 = 1536 Points.

1 ~ #28 to Miners for 2008 1st Rounder ~ #07.
2 ~ #91 to Raiders for 2008 3rd Rounder ~ #69.

After Trade Backs: #24 = 740 = 740 Points.

Change = - 796 Points.

2008

Before All Trade Backs: #62 + 94 = 284 + 124 = 408.

1 ~ #7 to Saints for #10 + #78.
2 ~ #69 to Bolts for 2009 2nd Rounder ~ #47.

After Trade Backs ~ And Downs: #10, 62, 78, and 94 = 1300 + 284 + 200 + 124 = 1908.

Change = + 1500 Points.

2009

Before All Trade Backs: #23, 58, and 89 = 760 + 320 + 145 = 1225.

1 ~ #23 to Ravens for #26 (5th Rounder doesn't weigh, here).
2 ~ #26 to Packers for #41, #73, and #83.
3 ~ #47 to Raiders (Again: Later Rounders don't apply, here) for #40.
4 ~ #73 to Jaguars for 2010 2nd Rounder ~ #44.
5 ~ #89 to Titans for 2010 2nd Rounder ~ #47.

After All Trade Backs ~ And Ups + Downs: #40, 41, 58, and 83 = 500 + 490 + 320 + 175 = 1485.

Change = + 260 Points.

2010

Before All Trade Backs: #22, 53, and 85 = 780 + 370 + 165 = 1315.

1 ~ #22 to Broncos for #24 (And Aaron The Navigator!!).
2 ~ #24 to CowBoys for #27 and #90.
3 ~ #44 to Raiders for #42.
4 ~ #47 to Cards for #58 and #89.
5 ~ #58 to Hoosten for #62 (And Zoltan The Space Emperor...of Space!!).
6 ~ #89 to Panthers for 2011 2nd Rounder.

After All Trade Backs ~ And Ups + Downs: #27, 42, 53, 62, and 90 = 680 + 480 + 370 + 284 + 140 = 1954.

Change = + 641 Points.

2011

Before All Trade Backs: #28, 60, and 92 = 660 + 300 + 132 = 1092.

1 ~ #28 to Saints for #56 and 2012 1st Rounder.
2 ~ #60 to Hoosten for #73 and change.
3 ~ #92 to Raiders for 2012 2nd Rounder.

After All Trade Backs ~ And Downs: #33, 56, and 73 = 580 + 340 + 225 = 1145.

Change = + 53 Points.

2012

Before All Trade Backs: #31, 62, and 93 = 600 + 284 + 128 = 1012.

After All Trade Backs ~ So Far!!: #27, 31, 48, 62, and 93 = 680 + 600 + 420 + 284 + 128 = 2112.

Change = + 1100 Points!!

Let's Tally That Up, Shall We??

2007 = - 0796 Points.
2008 = + 1500 Points.
2009 = + 0260 Points.
2010 = + 0641 Points.
2011 = + 0053 Points.
2012 = + 1100 Points.

Total = + 2758 Points!!

That's like getting 4 1st Rounders ~ #26 ~ in 6 years...for FREE!! :rocker:

Put another way...

That's like getting 10 2nd rounders ~ #63 ~ TEN Second Rounders!!! ~ for FREE!!!

So much for those who think that Mad Bill's just hiding those Picks under'is mattress!!

A Side Note that you might find interesting, gents...

The "Average" team would have an average slotting of 16.5, right?

That's the average 1st Round position of all 32 teams: 16.5.

***

As such, the Average Team would start each year's Draft with an average of X number of Draft Chart "Points."

And for the 1st 3 Rounds ~ where the LION'S share of Draft Capital lies ~ that number would be the Chart Points of #16.5 + #48.5 + 80.5, or 975 + 415 + 187.5 = 1567.5 Pointsthat the average, median team starts with.

That begs the question: What did Bill The Mad start with...before all those Trades??

***

With the exception of 2007 ~ where we have to Back Out the Branch 1st and Back In the Welker 2nd to get to the original numbers ~ we can use my OP to produce the numbers:

2007 ~ 1096 ~ 471 Less Draft Capital "Points" Than the Average Team.
2008 ~ 0408 ~ 1160 Less, thanks to Roger the Sewage!!
2009 ~ 1225 ~ 343 Less.
2010 ~ 1315 ~ 252 Less.
2011 ~ 1092 ~ 476 Less.
2012 ~ 1012 ~ 555 Less.

Total: Whew!! That's a ShortFall of 3257 Draft Dollars in 6 years!!

Total: We've started with a total of 6148 Points ~ an average of 1025 Points per year!!

That's one third ~ one third!! ~ less FirePower than the average team!!

***

In English??

The Patriots have started with the equivalent of the 15th or 16th Pick in the Draft, the last 6 years!!

NO 2nd Rounder.

NO 3rd Rounder.

Just the 15th or 16th Pick.

That's IT.

Check my Math, if you don't believe it!!

In all fairness, that single Pick can also be expressed as starting off with 3 extremely low Picks: #30, #62, and #94...But expressed as #15/#16, which is perfectly accurate, casts a shining light ~ in my mind, anyway!! ~ on just how incredible and amazing a job Mad Bill has done, over the years, drawing in all the talent he's managed to acquire, despite a truly crippling handicap. :rocker:

 

[Arrington Planet]

Perfect explanation!! Thank YOU, Sir!!

You're welcome, glad to be helpful! And BTW, very interesting the thread, congrats!

 

[Snapper]

A Side Note that you might find interesting, gents...

The "Average" team would have an average slotting of 16.5, right?

That's the average 1st Round position of all 32 teams: 16.5.

***

As such, the Average Team would start each year's Draft with an average of X number of Draft Chart "Points."

And for the 1st 3 Rounds ~ where the LION'S share of Draft Capital lies ~ that number would be the Chart Points of #16.5 + #48.5 + 80.5, or 975 + 415 + 187.5 = 1567.5 Pointsthat the average, median team starts with.

That begs the question: What did Bill The Mad start with...before all those Trades??

***


Total: Whew!! That's a ShortFall of 3257 Draft Dollars in 6 years!!

Total: We've started with a total of 6148 Points ~ an average of 1025 Points per year!!

That's one third ~ one third!! ~ less FirePower than the average team!!

***

In English??

The Patriots have started with the equivalent of the 15th or 16th Pick in the Draft, the last 6 years!!

NO 2nd Rounder.

NO 3rd Rounder.

Just the 15th or 16th Pick.

Extending this a little further, adding up your total Pats book values and then dividing by 6 (the # of years), you get 1557. This is roughly equivalent to the average, 1567.5, you cite. A team drafting 17th each round would have a book value of 1545, so the Pats fall just between 16.5 and 17.

Also, you have the Pats starting with 1025 book value average over those years. That's equivalent to drafting in the 30th position (1028 average) each year.

So Belichick's draft philosophy has allowed a perennial contender to keep drafting with the same draft leverage as teams that don't make the playoffs.

 

[SunnyDenmark]

Besides the 'annuity' principle which is well explained earlier in this thread, there are other factors as well which make Bill the best trader. The trading back or into next year strategy yields in some rounds multiple selections. This years first round is a great example with picks # 27 and #31. If at pick #27 there are 5 players graded equally high, then Bill can trade the 27th pick - and STILL take one of the 5 equally rated players. Basically getting a better (lower) 'price' for the same value of player. Bargain shopping.

Also, luckily for NEP is that the high demand postions (QB, LT, CB) have been pretty well set for NEP for last many years with Brady, Light (hopefully now Solder) and Law / Samuel / hopefully McCourtey. So other teams have to either trade UP to get those in demand positions while Pats can take other positions where the talent falls to them (not in demand positions). He doesn't necessarily have to reach for a player (of course Bill has traded up as well when he wants to leapfrog another team (Ravens for Gronk in '10).

Will be interesting to see when he drafts on the D-line this year if it will be 4-3 linemen or 3-4 linemen. Seems about almost half the teams going now to a 3-4 (although looks like Miami might switch to 4-3 now).

 

[Hercules Rockefeller]

Great thread, OTG. Your colorful terminology and boundless enthusiasm for the Pats and the draft certainly make the board more fun for us Earthlings!

 

[patfanken]

Re: Coach Bill The Mad (Genius) ~ Trading Back!!

You can crap on BB, if you must, for those draft picks that don't work out, but you CANNOT complain about the opportunities he's given the Pats to be right. Maybe not as many as we'd like, but certainly plenty of opportunities and that's all you can ask. The rest is up to the draft Gods.

This year could be no exception. I saw a mock that had us trading out of the 27 for a first in 2001 and a third this year, and the 62nd for a 2nd next year and a 5th. That points out the beauty of BB's annuity planning. We add future picks while not losing the number of players we draft. I think it was 2 seasons ago that was particularly beautiful. IIRC we added the 2 extra premium picks, while managing to draft the same number of players we had before the draft in relatively the same rounds only lower. Again, while it doesn't work out all the time, but it DOES raise the ceiling on what might occur, while at the same time make it harder to outright fail

This is an excellent year to trade out into next year. BB add a lot of depth to the roster in FA. This is a year we don't need 7 bodies out of this draft, 4-5 would be plenty. Plus the way this draft is looking the talent le vel in the 2nd and 3rd rounds is pretty even. So for example trading one of the #1 picks for either a first next year and a 3rd this year, or a for a 2nd next year and a 2nd this year makes sense. The same would go for trading one of the 2nd round picks for a 2nd next year straight out, or a 3rd next year and a 5th this year

The point being that BB could continue the "annuity" and add 2 more picks somewhere in the first 80 in 2013, while at the same time STILL pick 4 players THIS year within the first 70 players

You know in some respects I' like BB to pick those first 4 players when we are slated, but the thought of having just ONE pick in each of the first 3 rounds is kind of scary to look forward to. It would be so.......ordinary.

 

[Off The Grid]

Great thread, OTG. Your colorful terminology and boundless enthusiasm for the Pats and the draft certainly make the board more fun for us Earthlings!

Thank you, Brother Hercules!! It IS a blast, all of it!!

Hercules, Hercules!! :rocker: