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China facing demographic doom

Discussion in 'Political Discussion' started by patsfan13, Jan 27, 2007.

  1. patsfan13

    patsfan13 Hall of Fame Poster PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Interesting article from the London telegraph:

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/business/davosdiary/jan07/china.htm

    Apparently the Chi Coms are in even worse shape than Russia, Japan, Russia and the Europeans (the natives not the muslim immigrants). Ah yes the fruits of abortion and socialism, societal suicide.
     
  2. patsfan13

    patsfan13 Hall of Fame Poster PatsFans.com Supporter

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    And ruin their economy in the process, brilliant, BTW I take it you didn't read the article...they addresed your point.
     
  3. Fogbuster

    Fogbuster Pro Bowl Player

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    This is not a fully accurate picture. China's rise in wealth vis a vis the US and Europe is increasing on par with Japan from 1960-75, and the Asian Tigers (S.Korea, Malaysia, Singapore, etc) from 1972-1995. Both of these Asian centers of trade/wealth are major world players, very close to the top.

    China already has cornered a major portion of the manufacturing industry -- from socks and shoe to computers ... lenovo bought out IBM laptops... to most every "small goods" in-between -- they are doing gang-busters.

    No secret why: with a labor force that costs 10% of equivalent labor in the U.S., 8% of Europe, and 7% of Japan, China is the place to go for manufacturing. Next time you purchase from good ol' LLBean, check the label: chances are it says, "Made in China".

    And NEM has a point: China does own a *lot* of U.S. dollars, gotten through all this manufacturing trade. So does Japan; in fact, they own the most, if I recall the latest figures.

    So, the news of China's demise is greatly exaggerated.


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  4. wistahpatsfan

    wistahpatsfan Pro Bowl Player

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    #75 Jersey

    WHEW! That's a relief. Where would we get our cheap shoes and clothes and toys?
     
  5. patsfan13

    patsfan13 Hall of Fame Poster PatsFans.com Supporter

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    If the Chinese population has 33% over 60 in 30 years and their population is halved by 2050 who will be left to do the manfacturing of the junk we buy from them?
     
  6. Patters

    Patters Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    If China is concerned about its population, I don't see what's stopping them from reversing their 1 child per family policy. They could offer incentives to families that have more than one child, and the problem would straighten itself out very quickly, I think.
     
  7. patsfan13

    patsfan13 Hall of Fame Poster PatsFans.com Supporter

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    This problem has been 50 years in the making, these sorts of demographic trends are tough to change.
     
  8. maverick4

    maverick4 Banned

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    It's not that big of a problem as you think, because Chinese are very family oriented. The parents will live with their children as they age and die. It's not like over here where families are broken apart and people die alone in hospitals and nursing homes.
     
  9. Real World

    Real World Moderator Staff Member

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    Yeah NEM, we were looking like roses fiscally before GW took over. GW, with his spending, only did what every administration before him has done, make a bad situation worse. Can anyone tell me the last time an administration didn't increase government spedning from the year prior? Exactly. We're $8 trillion in debt, nationally, and we certainly weren't at $0 in 2001. GW is by far the most fiscally irresponsible president I've ever witnessed mind you. He's literally made government bancruptcy a possible achievement. Thing is, every adminstration has wasted more money than the one before, and the next adminstration will probably spend more than George Bush has. Which, if is the case, then we'll have really sunk to lower than low in fiscal responsibility.

    As for the chinese, there are so many directions that nation could turn. Their "yuppie" generation is becoming increasing western. A study done shows that they spend a major portion of their earned income just as Americans do. With their earnings and buying power increasing, and with their appetite for gadgets and buying credit growing, so will their demand for increased liberties and freedoms. China is in a strange position because as its economy booms, it is having a splitting effect of new age, versus old. It will be interesting who wins out. Will the old communist traditionalists, or will the younger yuppie generation?
     
  10. Real World

    Real World Moderator Staff Member

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    If you read the article, it states that the current situation is destroying the importance of family structure in that country, as children have no extended family to speak of.
     
  11. patsfan13

    patsfan13 Hall of Fame Poster PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Again think about the demographics, 1 child per couple (2 people, so at best there will be 4 parents (his and her's) add to this the demographic imbalances (120 males to 100 females, from 3-10% gay (depending on whose figures you believe) and children who do not reach adulthood, cultural attitudes (first born SON takes parents legacy, not the wife's parents, I don't know how many of the aging population will have anyone to take care of them. This will be an enormous issue going forward.

    This same issue will be happening throughout most of the industrial world, even in America (though to a lesser extent due to immigration into this country (both legal and illegal) of a population that still maintains a high birth rate (the hispanic population).
     
  12. Fogbuster

    Fogbuster Pro Bowl Player

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    NEM, again you are going after someone, much the same way Box was going after you. It was wrong for Box to do it, and it's wrong for you to do it.


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  13. Fogbuster

    Fogbuster Pro Bowl Player

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    It's part of a global cycle. Industry started in Europe, then it went to North America. Next it went to Asia. If you look at photos from 100-140 years ago, the Japanese were already copying the West, even wearing Western clothing. It then began circling around from Japan to the Tigers, and finally landed in the big fish: China.

    Where ever there is underdevelopment there are people available for work, by definition. So, even as China gets itself up and running, the ready hands in Africa and South America and everywhere else under-development exists, will be given the opportunity to develop.

    Clearly, China has a huge situation to deal with just within its own borders, with one-sixth of the world's population, so while it develops to raise up its own people, the other under developed regions will get into it, as well; no need to wait til China is "developed".

    It always starts with manufacturing, as it is the foundation for the whole economic infrastructure.



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  14. Fogbuster

    Fogbuster Pro Bowl Player

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    Yes, that is a serious issue. With modern technology and rising standards of living also goes the way of getting into this development, which often means relocating one's self and family to unfamiliar places where they have no roots.

    Fortunately, as another poster said, the Chinese do have a long and deeply ingrained sense of family, even extending out to the "king" and "teacher" on the national level, from traditional Confucianism.

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