CHFF: New England's statistical free fall

[JSn]

Love these guys for their fact-based opinions, but I can't help but think it's too early in the season to engrave the tombstone.

Cold, Hard Football Facts.com: New England's statistical free fall

Excerpts:

The Brady Fallout
The evidence of the post-Brady fallout so far is evident in the Cold, Hard Football Facts and in our Quality Stats – stats that have a direct correlation to winning football games

* The Patriots last year ranked No. 1 in our Offensive Hog Index, our measure of each team’s offensive line. This year they rank 22nd.
* The Patriots last year ranked No. 1 in passing yards per attempt, probably the single most important statistical indicator of success in all of sports. This year they rank 25th.
* The Patriots last year ranked No. 1 in Scoreability, our measure of offensive efficiency. This year they rank 25th.
* The Patriots last year ranked No. 1 in Relativity, our measure of how each team performs relative to the quality of their opposition. This year they rank 28th, ahead of only the dregs of the NFL (Texans, Chiefs, Lions, Rams).

The defense has not been immune either, folks.

* The Patriots last year ranked 11th in defensive passer rating, one of the key indicators of defensive success. This year they rank 26th.

The evidence is scant at this point in the season. After all, the Patriots have played just three games. But the trends are fairly obvious: the Patriots are in a world of hurt – especially when you consider the poor quality of their opposition so far in 2008.

In spite of that, they pick the Pats to win Sunday:

New England (-3) at San Francisco
The Patriots have had two weeks to lick their wounds after a troubling home loss to Miami. The 49ers are likewise coming off a one-sided defeat. New England has never won in San Francisco (0-4), but an embarrassed defense that still ranks fourth in Bendability could rectify that.

The pick: Patriots 22, 49ers 17

 

[TheComeback]

It's amusing that they admit the Patriots have played in three games, and then go on to claim there is a "trend line" to follow. The only trend I've seen are two victories and a horrific loss to the dolphins.

There are so few games in football that it's almost impossible to tell how well a team will do until they've played about six games (because, at that point, the season is almost halfway over).

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Two quibbles. I love to see an analysis of the last quarter of last season and the playoffs - I think we were so far ahead they didn't impact the overall performance assessment in 2007, but i'd bet they'd be illuminating trend wise heading into 2008.

And it isn't just the draft - because I count Welker and Moss as a 2nd and 4th rounder that season and both are still starting in 2008... I think perhaps adherence to value and depth strategies at draft time and a determination to address need primarily in FA in what has become a tighter market has had more impact heading into 2008.

 

[signbabybrady]

The Patriots last year ranked No. 1 in passing yards per attempt, probably the single most important statistical indicator of success in all of sports. This year they rank 25th.

I am not sure if I bye this as the single most important statistical indicator of success in all of sports. I counter that maybe the Goals against for a goalie or team might be more telling and probably points against in any sport.

 

[BPF]

I typically like these guys but this artcile goes way overboard, especially on the stats through only 3 games and the 2007 draft. Let's see where the Pats stand after 7-8 games and of course the injury to Brady was going to affect the offense.

Now on to the draft. Brandon Meriweather was the Pats only pick on the first day of the 2007 draft. Kareem Brown was a late 4th Rd pick #28 in that round. Clint Oldenburg was a late 5th Rd'er as well #34. The rest of the six picks the Pats made were in the sixth and seventh rounds, we knew then what the Pats thought of that draft class and why they kept trading out of that draft. We also knew that they would be fortunate if one or two of those players panned out.

This article also fails to give the Patriots any credit for utilizing the draft process to acquire Randy Moss for a 4th Rd pick as well as acquiring the 49ers' 1st Rd pick in 2008, they would have never been in position to pick Mayo without that 49ers trade. In addition they fail to mention the Pats acquisition of Welker in March of 2007 for 2nd and 7th Rd picks. Again it was clear then what the Pats thought of the talent in this draft.

The draft is set for parity, it's tough picking 2-3 impact players when you have a top 15 pick in every Rd and that task becomes impossible when you have been consistently picking late every year since 2002.

2006 draft is still incomplete but Maroney, David Thomas, Gostkowski and O'Callaghan are still with the team. Gost is on his way to becoming a top tier PK while Maroney, Thomas and O'Callaghan need to overcome injury histories. So we'll see going forward but I'm more inclined to agree that this was a "bad" draft vs 2007.

 

[ALP]

i want to see those same stats for the sb winner of last season in the reg season...

more specifically, those exact same stats for the first 3 giants games of last season....

 

[jimache]

Sf 23
ne 10

 

[marcus]

In this case the statistics don't lie.
Lets face it the Patriots have not been among the elite and the stats show that.

Certainly I can not disagree that the offensive line performance has been uneven.