Welcome to PatsFans.com

Change of pace: Predict the WR/TE Receptions

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by mgcolby, Sep 5, 2006.

  1. mgcolby

    mgcolby Woohoo, I'm a VIP!!! PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Jan 25, 2005
    Messages:
    5,606
    Likes Received:
    10
    Ratings:
    +12 / 0 / -0

    Lets change the pace and see what everyone thinks the receivers/tight ends will do this season. Here are my predictions/guess whatever you want to call it. Or whoever you think will lead the team in receptions. The rules are flexible.

    Gabriel 67
    Watson 53
    Caldwell 46
    Jackson 37
    Brown 33
    Graham 28

    what do you guys think?
    Last edited: Sep 5, 2006
  2. Slagathor

    Slagathor Rookie

    Joined:
    Aug 13, 2005
    Messages:
    1,435
    Likes Received:
    1
    Ratings:
    +1 / 0 / -0

    #22 Jersey

    I'll give it a whirl.

    Watson-80
    BRANCH-65
    Gabriel-55
    Troy Brown-45
    Caldwell-38
    Graham-35
    Jackson-30
  3. mgcolby

    mgcolby Woohoo, I'm a VIP!!! PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Jan 25, 2005
    Messages:
    5,606
    Likes Received:
    10
    Ratings:
    +12 / 0 / -0

    If Watson catches 80 it will be a fun year.
  4. HAMMERMILL

    HAMMERMILL Rookie

    Joined:
    Jul 26, 2006
    Messages:
    463
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    Watson 54
    Brown 48
    Gabriel 44
    caldwell 33
    Jackson 30
    graham 28
    thomas 28
    mills 22
    ADD IN ANOTHER 20 for various wr's

    and
    45 for faulk
    35 maroney
    and 20 for dillion

    ANOTHER 10 for
    evans,vrabel or whoever else they throw out there(pun was intended)

    Throw in 1 more for Brady when brown throws it to him:D
    Last edited: Sep 5, 2006
  5. patsox23

    patsox23 Rookie

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2004
    Messages:
    7,389
    Likes Received:
    9
    Ratings:
    +10 / 1 / -0

    Not bad, but I think there's little chance Caldwell has more receptions than Troy. If he does, in some ways that'll be a good sign.

    Watson - 68
    Gabriel - 57
    Troy - 45
    Caldwell - 41
    Faulk - 33
    Jackson - 28
    Graham - 31
    Thomas - 27
    Mills - 17
    Last edited: Sep 6, 2006
  6. Sean Pa Patriot

    Sean Pa Patriot Rookie

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2004
    Messages:
    8,226
    Likes Received:
    6
    Ratings:
    +6 / 0 / -0

    #12 Jersey

    Watson- 73
    Gabrial- 58
    Jackson- 51
    Cawldwell- 48
    Faulk-39
    Brown- 33
    Graham-29
    Mills-22
    Maroney-21
    Thomas-18
    Dillon-7
  7. Lloyd_Christmas

    Lloyd_Christmas I can delete my own crap! PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Sep 15, 2004
    Messages:
    1,420
    Likes Received:
    5
    Ratings:
    +5 / 0 / -0

    Watson - 72
    Gabriel - 65
    Troy - 43
    Faulk - 35
    Caldwell - 33
    Thomas - 32
    Graham - 28
    Smith/Childress - 26
    Jackson - 22
    Mills - 21
    Andrews - 18
    Dillon - 16
    Maroney - 14
    Vrabel - 3 (All 1st downs or TDs)
    Seymour - 1 (TD)
    Tom Brady - 1 (Long Gain on a trick play, possibly for a TD)
  8. cstjohn17

    cstjohn17 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Jun 12, 2006
    Messages:
    5,035
    Likes Received:
    23
    Ratings:
    +39 / 11 / -4

    #54 Jersey

    This is what I came up with yesterday, I guess I will stick with the predictions for at least one day....

    Caldwell 30, Brown 30, Gabriel 40. Jackson 20, Branch ???, Childress 10, Smith 5, Watson 40, Graham 25, Mills 5, Thomas 15, Faulk 35, Dillion 15, Maroney 20, Others 10
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------

    It looks like we will have a more balanced offense than last year. I think we will have to score points to help the defense which does not appear to be as strong as years past. I am interested in opinions on an ideal breakdown of run versus pass and who will be catching the ball.

    Using 2004, the Patriots best offensive year, as a barometer I came up with the following projection for 2006. Being conservative, even without Branch, this should be a very good offense. With Branch add 400 more passing yards add 1 PPG, his presence will decrease the number of touches for other players.

    2006 - Projections
    26.5 PPG
    Spilt - 470/ 475 = .99 ratio pass to run

    Passing
    300/470, 63.8% - 3700 yards
    Caldwell 30, Brown 30, Gabriel 40. Jackson 20, Branch ???, Childress 10, Smith 5, Watson 40, Graham 25, Mills 5, Thomas 15, Faulk 35, Dillion 15, Maroney 20, Others 10

    Rushing
    475\1900 yards, 4 ypc
    180 -Maroney - 750 yards, 200- Dillion - 750 yards (hopefully a lot of clock killing), 70 Faulk - 300 yards, 30 various - 100 yards

    ----------------------------- Historical Stats - Offense ---------------------------------
    2005 - 23.7 PPG
    Spilt - 530/ 434 = 1.22 ratio pass to run
    - Passing - 334/530 = 63%, 4322 yards
    - Rushing - 434/1513, 3.5 YPC (Dillion 733, Faulk 245)

    2004 - 27.3 PPG
    Spilt - 474/ 524 = .90 ratio pass to run
    - Passing - 288/474 =60.8%, 3750 yards
    - Rushing - 524/2134, 4.1 (Dillion 1635, Faulk 235)

    2003 -21.75 PPG
    Spilt - 527/ 466 = 1.13 ratio pass to run
    - Passing - 317/527 = 60.2%, 3561 yards
    - Rushing - 466/1617, 3.5 YPC (Antowain Smith 642, Faulk 638)

    2002 - 23.8 PPG
    Spilt - 601/ 473 = 1.27 ratio pass to run
    - Passing - 373/601 =62.1%, 3767 yards
    - Rushing - 473/1793, 3.8 YPC (Antowain Smith 1157, Faulk 169)

    2001 - 23.2 PPG
    Spilt - 413/ 395 = 1.05 ratio pass to run
    - Passing - 264/413 =63.9%, 3053 yards
    - Rushing - 395/1508, 3.8 YPC (Antowain Smith 982, Faulk 271)
  9. Ceresco

    Ceresco Rookie

    Joined:
    Nov 27, 2005
    Messages:
    590
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    Watson 72
    Gabriel 65
    Brown 40
    Jackson 40
    Graham 35
    Caldwell 30
    Childress 15
  10. Handel

    Handel Rookie

    Joined:
    Mar 31, 2005
    Messages:
    650
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    That means 430 completions for Tom. The most he did was 373 in 2002. Last year he did 334. So, put down some numbers.
    Last edited: Sep 6, 2006
  11. PonyExpress

    PonyExpress Rookie

    Joined:
    Feb 12, 2006
    Messages:
    4,660
    Likes Received:
    17
    Ratings:
    +18 / 1 / -0

    Watson 58/800/8
    Gabriel 50/700/5
    Brown 50/600/4
    Faulk 40/350/1
    Jackson 35/500/5
    Caldwell 24/300/1
    Graham 20/250/2
    Maroney 15/150/2
    Dillon 12/100/1

    Brady: 304 completions, 3750 yards, 29 TDs.

    Rushing:
    Dillon 790 yards/11 TDs
    Maroney 930 yards/6 TDs
    Last edited: Sep 6, 2006
  12. Kdo5

    Kdo5 Rookie

    Joined:
    Dec 16, 2005
    Messages:
    6,267
    Likes Received:
    4
    Ratings:
    +14 / 5 / -3

    Watson: 71 receptions, 1029 yards, 8 TDs.

    Caldwell: 58 receptions, 725 yards, 3 TDs.

    Gabriel: 54 receptions, 740 yards, 6 TDs.

    Troy Brown: 47 receptions, 510 yards, 1 TD.

    Graham: 39 receptions, 524 yards, 5 TDs.

    Faulk: 34 receptions, 240 yards, 0 TDs.

    Jackson: 29 receptions, 380 yards, 1 TD.

    ---------

    Tom Brady: 4148 yards(may be lower), 27 TDs(3 other players score TDs), 12 INTs.

    ---------

    For the heck of it...rushing.

    Dillon: 960 yards, 14 TDs.

    Maroney: 760 yards, 4 TDs.

    ---------

    I did the recieving by pretty much making up the # of receptions I believe they will get than multiplying it by their AVG Yards per Reception from last year. Watson is clearly Bradys favorite target.

    Based on right now I havent seen Jackson what so ever. So he is automatically last in catches and may assume he misses a few games.

    Gabriel will be a good target. Watson will haul in the best stats in every recieving category. Graham and Gabriel just behind him in TDs. Caldwell is getting slammed by people but can he improve through the course of the season, he will certainly get 50 catches, maybe a few TDs.
    Last edited: Sep 6, 2006
  13. stinkypete

    stinkypete Rookie

    Joined:
    Dec 15, 2004
    Messages:
    2,269
    Likes Received:
    15
    Ratings:
    +33 / 0 / -1

    #24 Jersey

    After checking out Brady's career stats, I'm going to give him 315 completions this year (roughly his career average).

    Watson - 75
    Troy - 45
    Gabriel - 40
    Faulk - 35
    Caldwell - 25
    Jackson - 25
    Jackson-20
    Graham - 15
    Dillon - 15
    Maroney - 10
    Thomas - 10
    Mills - 10

    Watson will be the go to guy, especially early, and will put up 1000 yards.

    Troy and Faulk will be consistent and clutch. Troy will break the team record.

    Gabriel seels little time weeks 1 and 2, but really takes off late in the season, kind of like Givens' 2003 season.

    Caldwell will dissapoint, but won't be awful, just not a standout.

    Jackson will frustrate fans this year, but will show flashes of brilliance. Given him a year.

    Dillon, Maroney and Graham contribute, but play a secondary role.

    Thomas and Mills make up for the production of Pass and Fauria, more or less. They will be players in the future.

Share This Page

unset ($sidebar_block_show); ?>