Change of pace: Predict the WR/TE Receptions

[mgcolby]

Lets change the pace and see what everyone thinks the receivers/tight ends will do this season. Here are my predictions/guess whatever you want to call it. Or whoever you think will lead the team in receptions. The rules are flexible.

Gabriel 67
Watson 53
Caldwell 46
Jackson 37
Brown 33
Graham 28

what do you guys think?

 

[Slagathor]

I'll give it a whirl.

Watson-80
BRANCH-65
Gabriel-55
Troy Brown-45
Caldwell-38
Graham-35
Jackson-30

 

[mgcolby]

I'll give it a whirl.

Watson-80
BRANCH-65
Gabriel-55
Troy Brown-45
Caldwell-38
Graham-35
Jackson-30

If Watson catches 80 it will be a fun year.

 

[HAMMERMILL]

Watson 54
Brown 48
Gabriel 44
caldwell 33
Jackson 30
graham 28
thomas 28
mills 22
ADD IN ANOTHER 20 for various wr's

and
45 for faulk
35 maroney
and 20 for dillion

ANOTHER 10 for
evans,vrabel or whoever else they throw out there(pun was intended)

Throw in 1 more for Brady when brown throws it to him

 

[patsox23]

Not bad, but I think there's little chance Caldwell has more receptions than Troy. If he does, in some ways that'll be a good sign.

Watson - 68
Gabriel - 57
Troy - 45
Caldwell - 41
Faulk - 33
Jackson - 28
Graham - 31
Thomas - 27
Mills - 17

 

[Sean Pa Patriot]

Watson- 73
Gabrial- 58
Jackson- 51
Cawldwell- 48
Faulk-39
Brown- 33
Graham-29
Mills-22
Maroney-21
Thomas-18
Dillon-7

 

[Lloyd_Christmas]

Watson - 72
Gabriel - 65
Troy - 43
Faulk - 35
Caldwell - 33
Thomas - 32
Graham - 28
Smith/Childress - 26
Jackson - 22
Mills - 21
Andrews - 18
Dillon - 16
Maroney - 14
Vrabel - 3 (All 1st downs or TDs)
Seymour - 1 (TD)
Tom Brady - 1 (Long Gain on a trick play, possibly for a TD)

 

[cstjohn17]

This is what I came up with yesterday, I guess I will stick with the predictions for at least one day....

Caldwell 30, Brown 30, Gabriel 40. Jackson 20, Branch ???, Childress 10, Smith 5, Watson 40, Graham 25, Mills 5, Thomas 15, Faulk 35, Dillion 15, Maroney 20, Others 10
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It looks like we will have a more balanced offense than last year. I think we will have to score points to help the defense which does not appear to be as strong as years past. I am interested in opinions on an ideal breakdown of run versus pass and who will be catching the ball.

Using 2004, the Patriots best offensive year, as a barometer I came up with the following projection for 2006. Being conservative, even without Branch, this should be a very good offense. With Branch add 400 more passing yards add 1 PPG, his presence will decrease the number of touches for other players.

2006 - Projections
26.5 PPG
Spilt - 470/ 475 = .99 ratio pass to run

Passing
300/470, 63.8% - 3700 yards
Caldwell 30, Brown 30, Gabriel 40. Jackson 20, Branch ???, Childress 10, Smith 5, Watson 40, Graham 25, Mills 5, Thomas 15, Faulk 35, Dillion 15, Maroney 20, Others 10

Rushing
475\1900 yards, 4 ypc
180 -Maroney - 750 yards, 200- Dillion - 750 yards (hopefully a lot of clock killing), 70 Faulk - 300 yards, 30 various - 100 yards

----------------------------- Historical Stats - Offense ---------------------------------
2005 - 23.7 PPG
Spilt - 530/ 434 = 1.22 ratio pass to run
- Passing - 334/530 = 63%, 4322 yards
- Rushing - 434/1513, 3.5 YPC (Dillion 733, Faulk 245)

2004 - 27.3 PPG
Spilt - 474/ 524 = .90 ratio pass to run
- Passing - 288/474 =60.8%, 3750 yards
- Rushing - 524/2134, 4.1 (Dillion 1635, Faulk 235)

2003 -21.75 PPG
Spilt - 527/ 466 = 1.13 ratio pass to run
- Passing - 317/527 = 60.2%, 3561 yards
- Rushing - 466/1617, 3.5 YPC (Antowain Smith 642, Faulk 638)

2002 - 23.8 PPG
Spilt - 601/ 473 = 1.27 ratio pass to run
- Passing - 373/601 =62.1%, 3767 yards
- Rushing - 473/1793, 3.8 YPC (Antowain Smith 1157, Faulk 169)

2001 - 23.2 PPG
Spilt - 413/ 395 = 1.05 ratio pass to run
- Passing - 264/413 =63.9%, 3053 yards
- Rushing - 395/1508, 3.8 YPC (Antowain Smith 982, Faulk 271)

 

[Ceresco]

Watson 72
Gabriel 65
Brown 40
Jackson 40
Graham 35
Caldwell 30
Childress 15

 

[Handel]

Watson - 72
Gabriel - 65
Troy - 43
Faulk - 35
Caldwell - 33
Thomas - 32
Graham - 28
Smith/Childress - 26
Jackson - 22
Mills - 21
Andrews - 18
Dillon - 16
Maroney - 14
Vrabel - 3 (All 1st downs or TDs)
Seymour - 1 (TD)
Tom Brady - 1 (Long Gain on a trick play, possibly for a TD)

That means 430 completions for Tom. The most he did was 373 in 2002. Last year he did 334. So, put down some numbers.

 

[PonyExpress]

Watson 58/800/8
Gabriel 50/700/5
Brown 50/600/4
Faulk 40/350/1
Jackson 35/500/5
Caldwell 24/300/1
Graham 20/250/2
Maroney 15/150/2
Dillon 12/100/1

Brady: 304 completions, 3750 yards, 29 TDs.

Rushing:
Dillon 790 yards/11 TDs
Maroney 930 yards/6 TDs

 

[Kdo5]

Watson: 71 receptions, 1029 yards, 8 TDs.

Caldwell: 58 receptions, 725 yards, 3 TDs.

Gabriel: 54 receptions, 740 yards, 6 TDs.

Troy Brown: 47 receptions, 510 yards, 1 TD.

Graham: 39 receptions, 524 yards, 5 TDs.

Faulk: 34 receptions, 240 yards, 0 TDs.

Jackson: 29 receptions, 380 yards, 1 TD.

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Tom Brady: 4148 yards(may be lower), 27 TDs(3 other players score TDs), 12 INTs.

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For the heck of it...rushing.

Dillon: 960 yards, 14 TDs.

Maroney: 760 yards, 4 TDs.

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I did the recieving by pretty much making up the # of receptions I believe they will get than multiplying it by their AVG Yards per Reception from last year. Watson is clearly Bradys favorite target.

Based on right now I havent seen Jackson what so ever. So he is automatically last in catches and may assume he misses a few games.

Gabriel will be a good target. Watson will haul in the best stats in every recieving category. Graham and Gabriel just behind him in TDs. Caldwell is getting slammed by people but can he improve through the course of the season, he will certainly get 50 catches, maybe a few TDs.

 

[stinkypete]

After checking out Brady's career stats, I'm going to give him 315 completions this year (roughly his career average).

Watson - 75
Troy - 45
Gabriel - 40
Faulk - 35
Caldwell - 25
Jackson - 25
Jackson-20
Graham - 15
Dillon - 15
Maroney - 10
Thomas - 10
Mills - 10

Watson will be the go to guy, especially early, and will put up 1000 yards.

Troy and Faulk will be consistent and clutch. Troy will break the team record.

Gabriel seels little time weeks 1 and 2, but really takes off late in the season, kind of like Givens' 2003 season.

Caldwell will dissapoint, but won't be awful, just not a standout.

Jackson will frustrate fans this year, but will show flashes of brilliance. Given him a year.

Dillon, Maroney and Graham contribute, but play a secondary role.

Thomas and Mills make up for the production of Pass and Fauria, more or less. They will be players in the future.