Chandler Jones

[patchick]

While we're giving ourselves pats on the back for Jones and Hightower it looks like the Chargers think they may have found their own dynamic duo of rookies.

Ingram, Reyes Live Up to Hype

They're right to be excited, they have a very good-looking draft class.

 

[Rusty Coupe]

Go listen to Belichick's postgame comments on Jones. You'll find that they sound strikingly similar to Crennel's comments on Poe.

This makes it seem a bit different though

Anthony Toribio, who spent all of last season on the practice squad, remains as the starting nose tackle ahead of Poe on the depth chart. Poe enters the lineup on obvious passing downs when the Chiefs use their nickel defense

Don't know if KC'a needs were bigger at NT than LB, but some boards had Kuechly going to the Chiefs

 

[Deus Irae]

This makes it seem a bit different though



Don't know if KC'a needs were bigger at NT than LB, but some boards had Kuechly going to the Chiefs

Why would that make it seem different? Take a look at some prominent NTs:

Wilfork - only started 6 games as a rookie
Raji - only started 1 game as a rookie
Hampton - only started 11 games as a rookie
Jamal Williams - only started 2 games in his first 2 seasons
Ted Washington - only started 6 games in his first 2 seasons
Jim Burt - Only started 2 games in his first 2 seasons
Ratliff - Only started 1 of 4 games as a rookie, and didn't start a game year 2

As for Kuechly going to the Chiefs, the Chiefs have Johnson and Belcher. NT was a much bigger need.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

They're right to be excited, they have a very good-looking draft class.

and to think, the jets almost drafted Ingram....lol

 

[Rusty Coupe]

If Hightower(edit) was below Tracy White and Tarpinian on the depth chart and only being used on 3rd downs, it would concern me.

Without looking it up, were those NT listed top 15 picks, and were they being played behind practice squad guys as rookies?

 

[Rob0729]

Poe was the clear pick there.

IDK, Poe was considered a reach by a lot of people because he was a Combine warrior without the college production to justify a mid-first round pick.

 

[Deus Irae]

IDK, Poe was considered a reach by a lot of people because he was a Combine warrior without the college production to justify a mid-first round pick.

Tavon Wilson was a bigger reach, according to a lot of people. What have you been saying about that pick by the Patriots?

 

[patchick]

If Chandler Jones was below Tracy White and Tarpinian on the depth chart and only being used on 3rd downs, it would concern me.

Without looking it up, were those NT listed top 15 picks, and were they being played behind practice squad guys as rookies?

Agreed, the truth is somewhere in-between. Not being an immediate starter is clearly not the kiss of death to an NT. But earlier impact is obviously better, and looking closely at that "late bloomers" list I don't see players who were 1st-round picks, started off shakily as rookies but then turned out to be awesome draft choices. Maybe Raji?

Take Casey Hampton, who "only" started 11 games as a rookie. He started off getting reasonable playing time behind a solid vet, Kimo von Oelhoffen, then took over the starting job in game 6 and kept it the rest of the season. That is not a late bloomer by any means. Wilfork "only" started 6 games, but looked good in all 16 for a team coming off a defense-led Superbowl year. Etc.

Jay Ratliff was a 7th-round pick who was under 300 pounds as a rookie, which is a very different situation. And Ted Washington is, in fact, the nightmare scenario. We look back over his long career now, but he was a HUGE disappointment for his drafting team. He was consistently overweight and ineffective for the 49ers, and was traded away after just 3 seasons.

None of this is to say that Poe won't turn out to be a stud, of course, it's still training camp! But I think you want your #11 overall pick to look good from day one, regardless of position.

 

[VJCPatriot]

Way early but Jones looks like a beast in the making. Can't wait to see what he brings to the table his rookie season! Also, 95 is an awesome number for a defensive end.

 

[Deus Irae]

Agreed, the truth is somewhere in-between. Not being an immediate starter is clearly not the kiss of death to an NT. But earlier impact is obviously better, and looking closely at that "late bloomers" list I don't see players who were 1st-round picks, started off shakily as rookies but then turned out to be awesome draft choices. Maybe Raji?

They are some of the best current and past NTs. The round they were taken with was irrelevant to the point I was making about NTs often taking time.

Take Casey Hampton, who "only" started 11 games as a rookie. He started off getting reasonable playing time behind a solid vet, Kimo von Oelhoffen, then took over the starting job in game 6 and kept it the rest of the season. That is not a late bloomer by any means. Wilfork "only" started 6 games, but looked good in all 16 for a team coming off a defense-led Superbowl year. Etc.

"Only 11" is significant, since he wasn't a day one starter. We've got people here questioning Poe because he's not currently listed #1 on the depth chart when the Chiefs haven't even played their first exhibition game.

Jay Ratliff was a 7th-round pick who was under 300 pounds as a rookie, which is a very different situation. And Ted Washington is, in fact, the nightmare scenario. We look back over his long career now, but he was a HUGE disappointment for his drafting team. He was consistently overweight and ineffective for the 49ers, and was traded away after just 3 seasons.

Again, they are top NTs.

None of this is to say that Poe won't turn out to be a stud, of course, it's still training camp! But I think you want your #11 overall pick to look good from day one, regardless of position.

You want every pick to look good from day one. However, it's understood that certain positions take more time. One of those is the NT position, especially if you're taking a guy who was playing in a 4-3 in college and converting him.

Poe's got technique issues, but he's far enough along that he's working with the 1's in sub packages. People here talk about waiting on players when they are Patriots players, but they love to jump on the players from other teams.

 

[Rob0729]

Tavon Wilson was a bigger reach, according to a lot of people. What have you been saying about that pick by the Patriots?

Tavon Wilson in the second round was a head scratcher too. In fact, you can argue he is far more of a head scratcher. I mean ESN and the NFL network didn't even have a highlight package for him and many draft publications and sites didn't even have any information on him.

Many times head scratchers become great picks and sure fire picks are busts. Both Poe and Wilson were head scratchers where they were picked in my eyes.

 

[Deus Irae]

Tavon Wilson in the second round was a head scratcher too. In fact, you can argue he is far more of a head scratcher. I mean ESN and the NFL network didn't even have a highlight package for him and many draft publications and sites didn't even have any information on him.

Many times head scratchers become great picks and sure fire picks are busts. Both Poe and Wilson were head scratchers where they were picked in my eyes.

As long as you grant that bolded part, I've got no issue with you calling Poe a question, because I understand the "workout warrior" theory. I think Pioli is building that Chiefs defense the way he/BB built the Patriots defense, which is by drafting the D-line in the first round and plugging in the other players behind it. Seymour, Warren and Wilfork were all first rounders. Pioli has taken Jackson and Poe in the first round, and he inherited Dorsey (another first rounder).

I thought Pioli would draft Raji over Jackson, and I thought he should have grabbed Cody in round 2 but, given that he didn't make those moves, drafting Poe this year makes perfect sense to me.

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/10/913285-official-patriot-day-1-draft-thread-page2.html#post3027489

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/10/914184-official-nfl-draft-day-3-thread-page5.html#post3030551

 

[patfanken]

Tavon Wilson was a bigger reach, according to a lot of people. What have you been saying about that pick by the Patriots?

"according to a lot of people". That's the key quote here. However "according" to the people who actually draft players for real, Wilson was on several teams' radar in the 2nd and 3rd rounds.

There certainly was a possibility that BB could have gotten him at the end of the 2nd round if he had chosen to pick Reyes at 48 as I might have done, or trade it like it was reported that he tried to do. Instead he decided not to take the risk and traded the late 2nd round pick instead.

Despite the small sample we got last night, Wilson did seem to justify BB's judgment in taking him that early. While it is true that in the draftnik world that we all enjoy so much in the off season, the pick was absolutely a reach. But in the world of guys who do it for REAL....not so much.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

"according to a lot of people". That's the key quote here. However "according" to the people who actually draft players for real, Wilson was on several teams' radar in the 2nd and 3rd rounds.

There certainly was a possibility that BB could have gotten him at the end of the 2nd round if he had chosen to pick Reyes at 48 as I might have done, or trade it like it was reported that he tried to do. Instead he decided not to take the risk and traded the late 2nd round pick instead.

Despite the small sample we got last night, Wilson did seem to justify BB's judgment in taking him that early. While it is true that in the draftnik world that we all enjoy so much in the off season, the pick was absolutely a reach. But in the world of guys who do it for REAL....not so much.

There's no such thing as a reach. There's just teams that draft successfully and teams that don't. The Patriots are one of the best, and the results prove that beyond any doubt. Had the Patriots traded up in the 2010 draft and picked Rob Gronkowski #3 overall, would anyone be whining that most draft pundits project Gronk in the second round?

 

[Deus Irae]

There's no such thing as a reach. There's just teams that draft successfully and teams that don't. The Patriots are one of the best, and the results prove that beyond any doubt. Had the Patriots traded up in the 2010 draft and picked Rob Gronkowski #3 overall, would anyone be whining that most draft pundits project Gronk in the second round?

The reach thing has infected enough threads. I only brought it up in answer to Rob to make sure he was being fair with his reach claim about Poe. If people want to spew nonsense about there being no reaches, or reaches only being because people don't know what they're doing, or how the Patriots never reach, please let them take that crap to the threads that have already been ruined by that.

 

[fester]

Defining reaches

Tavon Wilson was a bigger reach, according to a lot of people. What have you been saying about that pick by the Patriots?

As a side note, let's talk methodology on defining the size of a reach.

As I understand the term, a reach is a the taking of a player whose "true" (by whom and what definition of "true") value is significantly lower than the draft pick value actually used on the player.

Now how do we define the size of a reach? Total number of slots between actual and "true" value/ the number of rounds between actual and true/ the trade draftable value between actual and true?

For instance if we assume that both Poe and Wilson are reaches against some "True" value, who is the bigger reach. It depends on criteria:

Let us assume that Poe's true value was somewhere in the mid-20s, call it the 25th pick of the draft, so he was a reach of 14 slots AND half a round. Not that bad. However, using draft points, he was a reach of 480 points or an implied premium of 42nd pick that was not taken in trade.

And let us assume that Wilson's "true" value was the first pick of the 5th round. That would be a reach of 2.5 draft rounds, ~90 slots and 380 draft points or the equivilent of the 52nd pick in the draft.

If we assume that Wilson's 2nd best value (ie the team that would have taken him if the Patriots disappeared from the draft before they got on the clock) was somewhere between #60 and #80, the "reach" is minor.

The cost of a "reach" after the 1st round is not particularly high IF the scouting and coaching staff have good reason to believe that their assessment system is different and more effective than league average.

 

[BradyFTW!]

They are some of the best current and past NTs. The round they were taken with was irrelevant to the point I was making about NTs often taking time.

I don't agree with that. There are plenty of players with the raw talent to go in the first round of any draft. Many mid-late round picks are guys who have the talent, but who the scouts and coaches in question know will take a lot of development to get to their potential. That's rarely the case with non-quarterback first-round picks, at least among teams that draft reasonably well.

 

[BradyFTW!]

As long as you grant that bolded part, I've got no issue with you calling Poe a question, because I understand the "workout warrior" theory. I think Pioli is building that Chiefs defense the way he/BB built the Patriots defense, which is by drafting the D-line in the first round and plugging in the other players behind it. Seymour, Warren and Wilfork were all first rounders. Pioli has taken Jackson and Poe in the first round, and he inherited Dorsey (another first rounder).

I thought Pioli would draft Raji over Jackson, and I thought he should have grabbed Cody in round 2 but, given that he didn't make those moves, drafting Poe this year makes perfect sense to me.

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/10/913285-official-patriot-day-1-draft-thread-page2.html#post3027489

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/10/914184-official-nfl-draft-day-3-thread-page5.html#post3030551

I agree that he's trying to mirror the Pats' startegy of the early 2000s, but unfortunately for him, Jackson is no Seymour, Dorsey is no Warren, and I'd be pretty surprised if Poe ever gets anywhere close to Wilfork's level, if only because of how good Wilfork is. Considering that Wilfork and Raji both had commitment/conditioning questions coming into the NFL, though, I no longer consider it to be anywhere near as big of a red flag for a NT as I used to. Dorsey also doesn't have an ideal build for our style of 3-4. Too light for NT, and not tall/long enough to be an ideal fit at DE.

 

[Deus Irae]

I don't agree with that. There are plenty of players with the raw talent to go in the first round of any draft. Many mid-late round picks are guys who have the talent, but who the scouts and coaches in question know will take a lot of development to get to their potential. That's rarely the case with non-quarterback first-round picks, at least among teams that draft reasonably well.

Given the players I put forth, I'm not sure what there is to disagree about. Regardless of round drafted, NTs often take time and aren't ready to start week one of their rookie season.

 

[Deus Irae]

I agree that he's trying to mirror the Pats' startegy of the early 2000s, but unfortunately for him, Jackson is no Seymour, Dorsey is no Warren, and I'd be pretty surprised if Poe ever gets anywhere close to Wilfork's level. Dorsey also doesn't have an ideal build for our style of 3-4. Too light for NT, and not tall/long enough to be an ideal fit at DE.

Poe has the chance to be the best NT in the game. Getting there is up to him.

Jackson isn't even a shadow of Seymour, but he was the best 3-4 DE available in that 2009 draft (at least in terms of scouting projections).

Dorsey is a player that I've never been high on, going back to his college days. But, to his credit, he's become a solid run stopper in the 3-4. His deal is up after this season, and it will be interesting to see if they bring him back.

If Poe works out (and Houston continues developing at OLB), that's going to be a very good defense. It just won't be getting a lot of QB pressure from the DE positions.