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You've got to be kidding me. Anyone who seriously thinks Ochocinco should start--on any team--over Wes Welker has to be delusional. He can run any route? Big deal. The guy can run all the routes he wants, but he doesn't get open.
Ocho got out-performed by old-*** Terrell Owens last year, who never played in the Bengals' offense. Plus, Ocho seems to be incapable of being a team player when he doesn't get enough looks. I like the guy a lot--he's entertaining--but suggesting he should be on the field in place of Wes Welker is a terrible idea.
You're talking about taking our most reliable wideout off the field just so we can open up the playbook a little more. It doesn't make any sense. We already have a guy who can run every route, and it's Deion Branch. He also outperformed Ocho last year, despite being traded mid-season.
On 3 more targets in 1 fewer game, Johnson put up 17 fewer yards than Welker on 19 fewer receptions. He averaged 2.5 yards more per reception than Welker. And all of that was with Carson Palmer throwing him the ball. For somebody who can't get open, those are awfully comparable stats, and in a much worse situation.
Reliability is up for debate too. Welker caught more of his targets by a good amount (69.9% to 53.2%), but you have to keep in mind where these passes were. About 87.2% of Welker's receptions came 10 or fewer yards past the line of scrimmage. Only 58.2% of Johnson's were within 10 yards. In addition, Johnson actually had a far lower drop percentage, dropping only 8 of his 126 targets (6.3%) compared to Welker dropping 13 of his 123 (10.6%). I wish I had targets-by-distance stats, but only have total target numbers. It'd be great if somebody could supply them though.
As for why I'd advocate for Johnson over Welker, the biggest reason is simple: 11-20 yard sideline routes. Welker put up 214 yards total on the 11 passes he caught further than 10 yards down the field. Johnson caught 28 passes more than 10 yards down the field, for a total of 469 yards. Welker caught 29 passes that ESPN defines as along the sideline last season. He only put up 9 YPC on those routes, for 263 yards. Johnson caught 42 sideline passes last season for 489 yards and 11.6 YPC. And again, this was all with Carson Palmer, who was doing his best Chad Pennington impression last season. Put him in an offense with Tom Brady, and those numbers go up.
Yeah, Chad's a character. But as we've seen with a lot of these WRs, they can keep their mouth shut for a year or two when the team is winning. Chad has a personality, but he's not stupid (or at least I thought so until the bull incident). If Belichick signs him on the condition that he behaves, then he'll be able to control himself for at least a year.