Cap-Sized Thoughts (1st quarter edition)

[Tunescribe]

Oh, his departure was definitely contract related. The Pats never offered him one....

It was obvious they wouldn't when he announced that he was blowing off the OTAs and they didn't.

Sort of odd how he blew off OTAs in 2012 and 2013 yet put up good numbers and the team tolerated it, don'tcha think? Anyway, I was unable to find official confirmation that the Pats didn't offer him a free-agent contract, although that could be true if New England got advance word of his $3.25 million deal with Buffalo. Pepper Johnson likely had a lot to do with Spikes and New England "mutually parting ways."

 

[supafly]

Oh, his departure was definitely contract related. The Pats never offered him one....

Beat me to it--no disrespect to @Tunescribe or his argument.

If we want to give reasons why Spikes may have not fit into the mold the team was creating, let's remember that Spikes:

--failed drug tests at FLA and had a bad reputation from the get go
--received a 4 game PED suspension as a pro with New England
--had some attitude concerns, and wasn't afraid to address his issues with the coach in public via his twitter feed by complaining about the team and his situation
--was the only player to miss the OTA sessions, even if they were voluntary
--was the only player to miss practice on a week of the NFL postseason when the other players took it upon themselves to stay at the hotel at Patriot Place and close to the action the night before. Instead, Spikes chose to take to twitter to take multiple pictures about how he was stuck, rather than choose to pick up a shovel or pay someone to do it
--posted "**** pics" on chat roulette--another social media site
--made a home made porno movie (good for him) that ended up getting released to the public
--came up with the very immature "I'm leaving cocaine and whiskey out for Santa Claus tonight" message on Xmas eve
--often guessed on gap assignments and totally missed/whiffed on the hole. Showed "hit or miss" ability and inconsistent play too often, aside from a very good 2012 season
--was even considered a bit of a bust until down the stretch of the 2011 playoffs. That carried into the 2012 season, which was his best. 2013 saw a regression again in my opinion and the stats prove that.
--started in 39/64 games here, so had some injury concerns as well--missing 3/4 of a season in his first 2 years

I'm sure some will decide that it's important for them to pick and choose certain bullet points that they may disagree with, but the bottom line is that there were plenty of reasons for the Pats to think that moving on without Spikes was the right thing to do. Unfortunately, he also did some good things like hit hard and bring a sense of physicality to the defense, so at the same time his presence is missed.

 

[supafly]

For the record, ultimately, I think we all wished that there was a way that Spikes could stay; however, it was extremely clear cut from before the season even started that he wouldn't be returning.

We all miss some parts of his game for sure. There are also other parts of his game that are overrated as well, and he did give plenty of reasons as to why he was awfully immature and didn't seem to listen to authority.

 

[ATippett56]

At this rate, Nate Solder is not worth $7 million plus next season.

 

[hwc]

Sort of odd how he blew off OTAs in 2012 and 2013 yet put up good numbers and the team tolerated it, don'tcha think?

Not really. He was on the cheapo rookie contract. Why would you cut a reasonably productive player on a cheap rookie deal?

The issue was whether or not they would resign him to a more expensive contract when he hit free agency. As it turns out, he didn't get much money in free agency -- a one year deal $3 million deal including a $900,000 bonus. Demand was apparently on the light side.

 

[supafly]

At this rate, Nate Solder is not worth $7 million plus next season.

Probably not, at least at this point anyway.

Then again, they may feel as though they can get some of his technique issues addressed and get things ironed out.

They already committed to the option year, correct?

 

[supafly]

Not really. He was on the cheapo rookie contract. Why would you cut a reasonably productive player on a cheap rookie deal?

The issue was whether or not they would resign him to a more expensive contract when he hit free agency. As it turns out, he didn't get much money in free agency -- a one year deal $3 million deal including a $900,000 bonus. Demand was apparently on the light side.

Yeah, we'll have to see whether or not he parlays that into anything else.

So far through 4 games 1/4 of his 2014 season, he seems to show a lot of the same. Big play ability at times, mixed with some inconsistency.

Only 4 solo tackles with 9 assists so far; however I believe he did have a strip sack. On average though, so far he's giving them ONE solo tackle per game, and another 2.25 in assists.

Of course that strip sack may end up rating out to 4 by the end of the year as well. We'll just have to wait and see. It's a shame that we can't replace some solid form tackling and ability to fire up one's teammates , which really shouldn't be all that difficult to do when you think about it.

 

[ATippett56]

Probably not, at least at this point anyway.

Then again, they may feel as though they can get some of his technique issues addressed and get things ironed out.

They already committed to the option year, correct?

http://www.patscap.com/2015patscap.html

Nate Solder - $7,438,000

 

[hwc]

At this rate, Nate Solder is not worth $7 million plus next season.

At this rate, I would say that the contract vs. production ratio of EVERY player on the offense will be evaluated. The offense is so bad right now that no veteran's job is really secure with the lone exception of Julian Edelman. I can't think of a single other veteran on the offense whose poor production doesn't require a look at their contract going forward.

24th in points per game
29th in yards per game
32nd in yards per play
27th in 3rd down %
25th in fewest offensive penalties
30th in passing yds per game
30th in passing yds per attempt
24th in completion %
23rd rushing yds per game
21st rushing yards per carry

 

[DarrylS]

Spikes struggled for playing time in the first three weeks of the season in Buffalo, essentially used as a first down LB..

Last week he played more but his production was not that great..

From the Buffalo ESPN Blog...

http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/13298/brandon-spikes

News: Through four games, Spikes has 13 total tackles and a sack. (Tue Sep 30)

Spin: Spikes' playing time is pretty disappointing, as he was seeing just 39 percent of the defensive snaps entering Sunday, though he did see 62 percent in Sunday's loss to Houston. Still, he only put up three tackles even with the increased playing time. The hope entering the season was that Spikes would be a stud on first and second downs, and do just enough to at least be part of the mix for third down, thereby making him perhaps Buffalo's best linebacker IDP.

 

[goheels22002]

1.) Siliga's injury means more playing-time for Wilfork which should help him reach his highest PT incentive of 70%. Currently at 72%.
2.) Still waiting on the NFLPA's numbers at http://www.nflplayers.com/cap to reflect the expiration of the Top 51 rule.
3.) Ryan Wendell has missed out on two $12,500 46-man roster bonuses by being deactivated for two games this season.
4.) Starting this week the Patriots will lose $87,500 in cap space for each and every game that Vince Wilfork is on the 46-man active roster.
5.) As each week goes by, any cap savings from any extensions lessens as players get paid for each week.
6.) Today I listened to Jonathan Kraft's interview with Gary Tangauy and Andy Gresh. Jonathan reported that the Patriots have about $11.4 million in cap space. He claimed that the Patriots roll over 8 million of cap space from last year to this year. I have been using the carryover number of $4,106,801 as found at http://www.nflplayers.com/cap since the spring. My cap space numbers have been spot on for most of the spring and summer.

7.) Jonathan mentioned the need to account for incentives was one major reason for the Patriots having so much cap space. I talked about incentives in great detail in this blog post
http://www.patsfans.com/salary-cap/?p=766

8.) Last year the cap was $123 million. Patriots spent in cash about $129,656,000 or about 105%.
http://espn.go.com/boston/nfl/story/_/id/10586646/new-england-patriots-spent-free-agents-not-wisely
This year the cap is $133 million. According to my numbers the Patriots have spent about 95 million in 2014. They may spend another 6 to 8 million depending on how many NTLBE incentives are reached. 95 million is 71% of $133 million. The total cap amount for the 2013 and 2014 years is $256,000,000. The Patriots have spent in cash so far in 2013 and in 2014 $224,656,000 or about 87%.

9.) Provided 7 possible reasons for the Patriots to have 9 million or so in cap space currently at
http://www.patsfans.com/salary-cap/?p=814.

10.) FYI - Brady's 2015 cap hit is $13 million. If traded between now and 6/2/2015 his 2015 cap hit increases to $18 million. If he is on the Patriots Week 17 roster, his future salaries ($24 million worth) become fully guaranteed and without any offsets. So if cut during the 2015 season his cap hit would be $42 million (18 +24).

11.) There is this notion that the Patriots' high amount of dead money prevented them spending cash this year. Do not see a strong correlation between the two at http://overthecap.com/cash-spending and http://overthecap.com/salary-cap-space

Example - Seahawks have about 7 million less in dead money and have spent about $45 million more than the Patriots.

Thanks, Miguel. As always, fantastic work that is deeply appreciated.

Question: what does point #5 mean? I assume it's money that was committed to players who extended their contracts into 2014, but why would it be considered "cap savings" if the team and player agreed to a deal? Who besides Wilfork would be included?

 

[Miguel]

Are the NLTBE bonuses counted differently than those likely to be achieved for purposes other than reporting of numbers?

Yes for the 46 man active roster bonuses.
For example, Wilfork's 46-man active roster bonuses. He played in 4 games last year. Starting with the 5th game he is active Pats will lose $87,500. That type of NLTBE incentive is the only one that has an immediate impact on the cap. All others are accounted for AFTER the season.

Might there be some gray area where one might be treated as the other during the course of the season before it is achieved?

Could be

Or maybe JKraft is simply not counting all accrued NLTBE bonus payments as carefully as you. [emoji41]

It could be that there are some easily reached NTLBE incentives that have not been reported. Doubt that it are 3 million dollars worth.

 

[Miguel]

Question: what does point #5 mean? I assume it's money that was committed to players who extended their contracts into 2014, but why would it be considered "cap savings" if the team and player agreed to a deal? Who besides Wilfork would be included?

Example using fictional numbers for ease of calculations
John Doe has a 17 million salary.
Minimum salary for a player with John Doe's experience is $850,000.

John Doe will receive a $34 million signing bonus as part of his extension.
As part of the extension John will agree to lower his salary to the minimum salary for a player of his experience.

If extension is done before Week 1, his salary for the year is $850,000.
If extension is done after Week 4, his salary for the year is $4,650,000. 4 weeks at 17m or 1m a week plus 13 weeks at 850K or 50K a week. As the weeks goes by, his salary for the year increases by a million.

Does this explain number 5 better?

 

[Marinlik]

Probably not, at least at this point anyway.

Then again, they may feel as though they can get some of his technique issues addressed and get things ironed out.

They already committed to the option year, correct?

The option isn't guaranteed before the start of the 2015 league year. So I could see us letting him go at the end of this season if he doesn't improve. You could certainly use those $7,4m to improve the team.

I think we have a couple of players next season who will have to redo their contracts, or be released. Releasing Solder gives us a lot of cash. Revis will save us a lot of cash, even if we resign him to the highest CB contract(one that isn't $20m unreasonable). We could give him $15m a year and still save $5m next year. Wendell 700k, Amendola $1,465m. We have to decide if Wilfork is worth 6,7m in 2015. Browner has to show he is worth $4,7m. Arrington 900k.

 

[Miguel]

I would add Rob Gronkowski to the list of the players who need to prove themselves this year. That is, if he misses a good number of games or ends the season injured I doubt that the Patriots will pick up his 10 million option.

 

[IllegalContact]

What are the cap implications for Brady simply quitting?

Just wondering of the benefit of the possibility that the front office is making it intentionally miserable for him

 

[BSR]

8.) Last year the cap was $123 million. Patriots spent in cash about $129,656,000 or about 105%.
http://espn.go.com/boston/nfl/story/_/id/10586646/new-england-patriots-spent-free-agents-not-wisely
This year the cap is $133 million. According to my numbers the Patriots have spent about 95 million in 2014. They may spend another 6 to 8 million depending on how many NTLBE incentives are reached. 95 million is 71% of $133 million. The total cap amount for the 2013 and 2014 years is $256,000,000. The Patriots have spent in cash so far in 2013 and in 2014 $224,656,000 or about 87%.

Miguel, the part of your post above highlights to me the disparity between cash and cap spending and how different the two can really be. In this instance cash spending over the past two years is $31million lower than cap spending, although they are only below the cap by about $9m, the difference largely being attributable to prorated signing bonus. Outstanding prorated signing bonus is an intriguing number to me as I think it probably represents more than cash or cap spending, the amount that a team is "going for it". Do you have a sense of how teams around the NFL stack up regarding outstanding prorated signing bonus?

 

[Miguel]

Do you have a sense of how teams around the NFL stack up regarding outstanding prorated signing bonus?

You can get a sense at
http://overthecap.com/salary-cap-space and http://overthecap.com/cash-spending