Can we talk WR for a bit?

[VrabelJr]

This would have to be a late round pick, but what do you think about Roy Roundtree from Michigan? He seems very Deion Branch like to me.

 

[chevss454]

I'm no draft guru so I will ask here: what do you guys think of Terrance Williams from Baylor? Obviously he has good size but are his hands an issue and his route running? Clearly he's a good deep threat.

I'm not either but I'll give you a peek at what I've learned about him. I'll start by saying that in another draft class Williams might be a top 5 WR prospect. He's my 12th ranked WR w/ Justin Hunter coming in 11th. Williams has good deep speed but I think he'll be best as an intermediate level player capable of making good play better with his YAC. When I see Williams play I immediately think of Braylon Edwards. The great thing to like about him is that he took to coaching at the Senior Bowl very well as more than 1 coach was complimentary.

He had a vj of 32.5 and a 3 cone of 6.65. He had a 4.52 40, 11' bj and a 4.32 ss.

These are the limits for what BB will/has accepted recently from his WR prospects & I've used these for this draft class.

4.51 40, 6.82 three cone, 4.34 shuttle, 37" vertical, 114" broad jump.

You can see his vj is well short of 37" and that's the event that screws most WR candidates. His 40 is borderline. His 3 cone, bj and ss fit the criteria so he comes in with 3/5 criteria met.

In fact, in this years draft, only Markus Wheaton and Ryan Swope meet or exceed my criteria for BB as laid out above. They both went 5/5. I think BB requires (he seems to require) 4 of the 5 to be considered in the top half of the draft.

(It just so happens Wheaton & Swope are the 2 WRs I want most for the Pats in this draft but for other reasons than this. More on them later.)

Those who fulfill 4/5 w/ exception as noted:
Vertical exception; Marquess Wilson, Ryan Spadola, Josh Boyce, T. Austin
3 cone; Mark Harrison (J. Hunter didn't participate)
40; Da'Rick Rogers missed by 0.1 second.

Cordarelle Patterson passed 3/3 in which he participated but he didn't do 3 cone or bj. He'd likely pass since his vj passed but one never knows.

For other prospects, Quinton Patton and Stedman Bailey were lacking in both the vertical and the 40 yard dash, and Robert Woods & DeAndre Hopkins, like Terrence Williams do not qualify in three or more categories.

4/5 or better = 9 prospects: CP, Hunter, Wheaton, Swope, Rogers, Mark Harrison, Marquess Wilson, Spadola, and Boyce. This doesn't include Keenan Allen (whom I really like but he'll be gone) or Marquise Goodwin (who is better than people think) who haven't fully tested yet. You can add Goodwin to make it 10; he's a lock to pass the 3 cone and ss criteria. Allen coming off injury will be iffy. We'll find out Tuesday. If he doesn't pass 4/5 I think BB will give him a pass anyway.

My conclusions are:
if BB picks a WR at 29, it will be Hunter or Patterson in no order predicted or Allen if he tests better than I expect.

If BB goes D with 29 and a WR in the 2nd round candidates will likely be those above and more realistically Wheaton or Swope. As stated my 1st choice is for Wheaton and my 2nd choice is for Swope. Maybe a trade back with 29 for a double dip? I'm concerned Wheaton won't be there at the end of the 2nd round but Swope would be an excellent consolation prize, at least in my mind. Rogers would be my 3rd choice here.

Boyce could come up later and he'd compliment Swope like PBJ.

I don't expect people to agree since this is just my opinion & it matters little. However, I've put a lot hours into this & I'm pretty confident in the process (unless BB makes trade after trade; then I'm screwed). As I said earlier, I'll try to post player profiles soon.

 

[manxman2601]

I'm not either but I'll give you a peek at what I've learned about him. I'll start by saying that in another draft class Williams might be a top 5 WR prospect. He's my 12th ranked WR w/ Justin Hunter coming in 11th. Williams has good deep speed but I think he'll be best as an intermediate level player capable of making good play better with his YAC. When I see Williams play I immediately think of Braylon Edwards. The great thing to like about him is that he took to coaching at the Senior Bowl very well as more than 1 coach was complimentary.

He had a vj of 32.5 and a 3 cone of 6.65. He had a 4.52 40, 11' bj and a 4.32 ss.

These are the limits for what BB will/has accepted recently from his WR prospects & I've used these for this draft class.



You can see his vj is well short of 37" and that's the event that screws most WR candidates. His 40 is borderline. His 3 cone, bj and ss fit the criteria so he comes in with 3/5 criteria met.

In fact, in this years draft, only Markus Wheaton and Ryan Swope meet or exceed my criteria for BB as laid out above. They both went 5/5. I think BB requires (he seems to require) 4 of the 5 to be considered in the top half of the draft.

(It just so happens Wheaton & Swope are the 2 WRs I want most for the Pats in this draft but for other reasons than this. More on them later.)

Those who fulfill 4/5 w/ exception as noted:
Vertical exception; Marquess Wilson, Ryan Spadola, Josh Boyce, T. Austin
3 cone; Mark Harrison (J. Hunter didn't participate)
40; Da'Rick Rogers missed by 0.1 second.

Cordarelle Patterson passed 3/3 in which he participated but he didn't do 3 cone or bj. He'd likely pass since his vj passed but one never knows.

For other prospects, Quinton Patton and Stedman Bailey were lacking in both the vertical and the 40 yard dash, and Robert Woods & DeAndre Hopkins, like Terrence Williams do not qualify in three or more categories.

4/5 or better = 9 prospects: CP, Hunter, Wheaton, Swope, Rogers, Mark Harrison, Marquess Wilson, Spadola, and Boyce. This doesn't include Keenan Allen (whom I really like but he'll be gone) or Marquise Goodwin (who is better than people think) who haven't fully tested yet. You can add Goodwin to make it 10; he's a lock to pass the 3 cone and ss criteria. Allen coming off injury will be iffy. We'll find out Tuesday. If he doesn't pass 4/5 I think BB will give him a pass anyway.

My conclusions are:
if BB picks a WR at 29, it will be Hunter or Patterson in no order predicted or Allen if he tests better than I expect.

If BB goes D with 29 and a WR in the 2nd round candidates will likely be those above and more realistically Wheaton or Swope. As stated my 1st choice is for Wheaton and my 2nd choice is for Swope. Maybe a trade back with 29 for a double dip? I'm concerned Wheaton won't be there at the end of the 2nd round but Swope would be an excellent consolation prize, at least in my mind. Rogers would be my 3rd choice here.

Boyce could come up later and he'd compliment Swope like PBJ.

I don't expect people to agree since this is just my opinion & it matters little. However, I've put a lot hours into this & I'm pretty confident in the process (unless BB makes trade after trade; then I'm screwed). As I said earlier, I'll try to post player profiles soon.

Exceptional post and ties in with my conclusions post combine. I'm pretty convinced that pending him being over drafted by someone else, Wheaton will be a Patriot next season - have thought this for a while. I hope so anyway.

 

[yopats]

Re: Re: Can we talk WR for a bit?

I'm not either but I'll give you a peek at what I've learned about him. I'll start by saying that in another draft class Williams might be a top 5 WR prospect. He's my 12th ranked WR w/ Justin Hunter coming in 11th. Williams has good deep speed but I think he'll be best as an intermediate level player capable of making good play better with his YAC. When I see Williams play I immediately think of Braylon Edwards. The great thing to like about him is that he took to coaching at the Senior Bowl very well as more than 1 coach was complimentary.

He had a vj of 32.5 and a 3 cone of 6.65. He had a 4.52 40, 11' bj and a 4.32 ss.

These are the limits for what BB will/has accepted recently from his WR prospects & I've used these for this draft class.



You can see his vj is well short of 37" and that's the event that screws most WR candidates. His 40 is borderline. His 3 cone, bj and ss fit the criteria so he comes in with 3/5 criteria met.

In fact, in this years draft, only Markus Wheaton and Ryan Swope meet or exceed my criteria for BB as laid out above. They both went 5/5. I think BB requires (he seems to require) 4 of the 5 to be considered in the top half of the draft.

(It just so happens Wheaton & Swope are the 2 WRs I want most for the Pats in this draft but for other reasons than this. More on them later.)

Those who fulfill 4/5 w/ exception as noted:
Vertical exception; Marquess Wilson, Ryan Spadola, Josh Boyce, T. Austin
3 cone; Mark Harrison (J. Hunter didn't participate)
40; Da'Rick Rogers missed by 0.1 second.

Cordarelle Patterson passed 3/3 in which he participated but he didn't do 3 cone or bj. He'd likely pass since his vj passed but one never knows.

For other prospects, Quinton Patton and Stedman Bailey were lacking in both the vertical and the 40 yard dash, and Robert Woods & DeAndre Hopkins, like Terrence Williams do not qualify in three or more categories.

4/5 or better = 9 prospects: CP, Hunter, Wheaton, Swope, Rogers, Mark Harrison, Marquess Wilson, Spadola, and Boyce. This doesn't include Keenan Allen (whom I really like but he'll be gone) or Marquise Goodwin (who is better than people think) who haven't fully tested yet. You can add Goodwin to make it 10; he's a lock to pass the 3 cone and ss criteria. Allen coming off injury will be iffy. We'll find out Tuesday. If he doesn't pass 4/5 I think BB will give him a pass anyway.

My conclusions are:
if BB picks a WR at 29, it will be Hunter or Patterson in no order predicted or Allen if he tests better than I expect.

If BB goes D with 29 and a WR in the 2nd round candidates will likely be those above and more realistically Wheaton or Swope. As stated my 1st choice is for Wheaton and my 2nd choice is for Swope. Maybe a trade back with 29 for a double dip? I'm concerned Wheaton won't be there at the end of the 2nd round but Swope would be an excellent consolation prize, at least in my mind. Rogers would be my 3rd choice here.

Boyce could come up later and he'd compliment Swope like PBJ.

I don't expect people to agree since this is just my opinion & it matters little. However, I've put a lot hours into this & I'm pretty confident in the process (unless BB makes trade after trade; then I'm screwed). As I said earlier, I'll try to post player profiles soon.

Did you include A. Dobson at all..I know he was hurt at the combine

 

[Don Kipines]

I get the feeling they will have a different approach to drafting a receiver this year.

They so clearly need a pure-X type of guy and so clearly don't need a slot receiver that I'm guessing they're adjusting their criteria. I'm not saying they'll throw the testing out the window, but the Pats have always drafted with scheme in mind, and their scheme needs dictate that they find a receiver who'll excel in the role they envision for him. That to me means they will look for a guy who lined up a lot in the X role in college and excelled at downfield routes.

This for me is the reason they may not be looking at Wheaton. They just had an undersized X receiver on the team who sometimes hurt them by not being physical enough to beat the jam. How many times did you see Brady open up to his left to throw Lloyd's way, see him tied up on the sideline, and then have to come back inside? That makes me wonder if they'd bring in a guy like Wheaton, who has a similar build.

The other thing that makes me think is that they seem to have changed their thinking about draft picks in general and placed an emphasis on sheer size and physical power, especially with their high picks. Solder, Jones, Hightower, Gronkowski, Dowling, Vollmer, Brace... obviously there are a few Chungs and Butlers in there, but Dowling was a conspicuous pick after years of Butlers and Wheatleys and Willie Andrewses, while Vollmer/Solder were a departure from Kaczur/Light.

This Pats team is so close but their one weakness seems to be that they have a tough time matching up offensively with teams that want to slug it out with them and beat them up on the line. They haven't been able to win the fistfights the way the old Pats did in the SB years (think the Pittsburgh playoff games). They've been gradually trying to overcome that by building a power running game, but they were really hurt last year against the Ravens by their over-reliance on slight receivers like Welker and Lloyd and Branch.

You may be right about BB's testing minimums, and I haven't put as much time as you have into this. It's just that my gut tells me they're looking for a physically imposing presence outside the numbers, which means Hunter, Patterson, Allen, Williams, Rogers, somebody like that. I think it's interesting they're working out guys like Marquess Wilson, Courtney Gardner, and Tyrone Goard for the lower rounds, too -- all super-sized, outside types. And don't forget, McDaniels drafted DeMariyus Thomas and Eric Decker in the same draft once.

Just a thought. Maybe a little wishful thinking, too, but I think there's something there.

 

[chevss454]

Exceptional post and ties in with my conclusions post combine. I'm pretty convinced that pending him being over drafted by someone else, Wheaton will be a Patriot next season - have thought this for a while. I hope so anyway.

You & I both but with these exceptions.

My very first wish would be for Keenan Allen but that's unrealistic unless he drops b/c his injury isn't totally resolved or if he tests poorly on Tuesday wh/ would give pause to everyone. Next on my wish list is C. Patterson. I'll post his profile shortly. If either is sitting at 29 I don't see any way on God's green earth BB passes on them except that Patterson may not pass BB's entrance exam. This is a very real possibility as I've read more than once his overall IQ is deficient. Tavon Austin is another possibility but if Austin is miraculously sitting at 29 I think BB will use him as trade bait. To me, Austin is more boom/bust than Patterson but Austin's floor/ceiling is basement/very good and Patterson's floor/ceiling is very good/goat.

Therefore, Wheaton becomes my first realistic candidate for the Pats. My worry is that BB wouldn't use 29 for him & he'll be gone by our late 2nd. In that case, Ryan Swope would be a very capable consolation price. I think our best chance at Wheaton is to trade 29 back for a 2nd and whatever then take Wheaton with our newfound 2nd. Our own 2nd could then be used on Swope.

Why Swope?

Swope (6'1", 205) might be one of the most widely underrated receivers in the draft despite the fact he’s considered one of the 10 best players at his position by many scout types. Keep in mind he passes all 5 athletic criteria BB seems to demand & he fits the kind of WR BB is drawn to.
Swope is considered a slot receiver, but he’s nearly identical in dimensions to Quinton Patton (liked by many here) and is as good or better an athlete in several measurable areas. His outside ability also shows on the field.
Swope often makes the first man miss and demonstrates an array of moves after the catch that get him into open lanes down field. Once he gets an opening, his 4.34 speed (yes, 4.34) helps him defeat angles that defensive backs have on him. Like CP, Swope has 4 forward gears and uses them all.
Swope also has a little running back in him the way Hines Ward did. He knows when to prioritize situations that call for elusiveness and those that require him to pick up the first down when he can.
What BB will value from Swope is his skill at catching the ball in traffic. This showed up a lot as a junior when he was paired with Ryan Tannehill, who demonstrated great skill at finding Swope in the seams of the defense on rollouts and scrambles.
Swope is an excellent receiver with his back to the football and it makes him a versatile option as a flanker, slot man, or even backfield option in the realm of Randall Cobb & Percy Harvin. A&M used Swope in the backfield quite a bit; BB loves to do this.
Swope may not be versatile in the sense that Austin is and he lacks the excitement factor and consistent breakaway upside of Austin, but he can approach Austin’s production inside more than Austin will approach Swope’s skill on the perimeter.
What that could mean in the NFL is that Austin will be a rich man’s Dexter McCluster (pre-Andy Reid) while Swope could be a Randall Cobb clone. In case you’re wondering, the 5’10, 191-pound Cobb had these numbers from his pre- draft workouts:
 5’10”, 191 pounds
 4.46 40-yard dash
 4.34 20-yard shuttle
 7.08 3-cone drill
 33.5 vertical
 16 reps with 225 pounds
Swope’s data:
 6’0”, 205 pounds
 4.34 40-yard dash
 4.25 20-yard shuttle
 6.76 3-cone drill
 37 vertical
 16 reps with 225 pounds
Swope is bigger, faster, quicker, more explosive, and just as strong the Packers young superstar in the making. Swope is no joke &

That's why I want Swope & Wheaton.

Did you include A. Dobson at all..I know he was hurt at the combine

see post 176.

 

[pats_premi]

Watching the highlights on Patriots.com

Official Website of the New England Patriots | Media Center - Videos - Latest Videos

Couple of less talked about guys looked good to me:
1) Tavarres King, a wide receiver from Georgia - He seems to play faster than most of higher ranked receiver (almost Mike Wallace like speed). However he seems to body catch and does not catch the ball at its highest point.

2) Josh Boyce, a wide receiver from TCU - seems to be good after the catch/change of direction guy.

 

[chevss454]

I get the feeling they will have a different approach to drafting a receiver this year.

They so clearly need a pure-X type of guy and so clearly don't need a slot receiver that I'm guessing they're adjusting their criteria. I'm not saying they'll throw the testing out the window, but the Pats have always drafted with scheme in mind, and their scheme needs dictate that they find a receiver who'll excel in the role they envision for him. That to me means they will look for a guy who lined up a lot in the X role in college and excelled at downfield routes.

This for me is the reason they may not be looking at Wheaton. They just had an undersized X receiver on the team who sometimes hurt them by not being physical enough to beat the jam. How many times did you see Brady open up to his left to throw Lloyd's way, see him tied up on the sideline, and then have to come back inside? That makes me wonder if they'd bring in a guy like Wheaton, who has a similar build.

The other thing that makes me think is that they seem to have changed their thinking about draft picks in general and placed an emphasis on sheer size and physical power, especially with their high picks. Solder, Jones, Hightower, Gronkowski, Dowling, Vollmer, Brace... obviously there are a few Chungs and Butlers in there, but Dowling was a conspicuous pick after years of Butlers and Wheatleys and Willie Andrewses, while Vollmer/Solder were a departure from Kaczur/Light.

This Pats team is so close but their one weakness seems to be that they have a tough time matching up offensively with teams that want to slug it out with them and beat them up on the line. They haven't been able to win the fistfights the way the old Pats did in the SB years (think the Pittsburgh playoff games). They've been gradually trying to overcome that by building a power running game, but they were really hurt last year against the Ravens by their over-reliance on slight receivers like Welker and Lloyd and Branch.

You may be right about BB's testing minimums, and I haven't put as much time as you have into this. It's just that my gut tells me they're looking for a physically imposing presence outside the numbers, which means Hunter, Patterson, Allen, Williams, Rogers, somebody like that. I think it's interesting they're working out guys like Marquess Wilson, Courtney Gardner, and Tyrone Goard for the lower rounds, too -- all super-sized, outside types. And don't forget, McDaniels drafted DeMariyus Thomas and Eric Decker in the same draft once.

Just a thought. Maybe a little wishful thinking, too, but I think there's something there.

You bring up some excellent points especially regarding the possibility that BB might change his drafting/athletic/scouting criteria for his wideouts. Frankly, I'm constantly wrestling with it myself and if it weren't such a deep draft with so many good prospects who not only do fit his criteria but also add so much more versatility than a strictly Moss type X receiver could, I'd be more inclined to guess that way. The only problem is that I'd end up right back with the same prospects: CP, Allen, Wheaton, Swope, Marquess Wilson, Rogers, Hunter and Mark Harrison.

Let me make you feel better about Wheaton as a boundary receiver. Wheaton's strength, speed and quickness makes him possibly the best receiver vs the press in this draft. As a technician, he's 2nd only to Keenan Allen in this draft; if Allen is 100, Wheaton is 98 in route running. His long speed approaches Patterson's & Wheaton's deep ball skills are far superior. Wheaton is not anything like Brandon Lloyd as a boundary receiver. Wheaton is tough, competitive & a YAC machine.

IF BB does change his WR scouting parameters or, & more likely in my mind, if he believes they offer a better value, bigger receivers such as Marquess Wilson or Da'Rick Rogers could become his prime targets in the 3rd-late 4th round area. This could happen and I'd be very happy with either one but keep in mind they would still meet his previous athletic criteria meeting 4/5 and they are both already on my short list wh/ is based on those criteria. In the early rounds, the receivers you suggest are also already there: CP & Allen. Iow, for this draft I can't see the point of BB making a philosophical scouting change. It wouldn't make any difference at all.

 

[Username]

I get the feeling they will have a different approach to drafting a receiver this year.

I certainly hope so, because their approach hasn't worked thus far.

 

[chevss454]

Watching the highlights on Patriots.com

Official Website of the New England Patriots | Media Center - Videos - Latest Videos

Couple of less talked about guys looked good to me:
1) Tavarres King, a wide receiver from Georgia - He seems to play faster than most of higher ranked receiver (almost Mike Wallace like speed). However he seems to body catch and does not catch the ball at its highest point.

2) Josh Boyce, a wide receiver from TCU - seems to be good after the catch/change of direction guy.

Per manxman the Pats are having Boyce in for an interview. As I said previously, Boyce would be an excellent complimentary player for the Pats in the value rounds.

 

[Metaphors]

I like all of the analytics but I think Belichick isn't going to use a draft pick (any draft pick) on a body-catching WR. While all the metrics described above are still valid, I think being able to snatch and secure the ball away from your body is going to be an overriding consideration.

Wheaton and TWilliams are 2 players that seem to let the ball get to their body more than they should. I haven't seen enough of Dobson and Patton to say one way or the other.

From what I've seen of Allen, he has solid hands but seems to lose focus on easy catches sometimes. If Belichick thinks that is correctable, he, Hunter and Hopkins are the guys I see as early targets (though I would rather see a trade-down than take them at 29).

I think the real value in this draft class is going to be late. There are going to be a handful of receivers available in the 7th round that would be mid-round picks in other years. Guys like Rodney Smith, Marcus Davis, Aaron Mellette, Corey Fuller...one or more of them will be available late. I hope the Pats reserve a late pick for a WR slider.

 

[chevss454]

Player Profile

1. Cordarelle Patterson. 6'2", 216 lbs.

He meets the athletic parameters that I think BB requires as posted above.

It was immediately apparent when I first saw Patterson that he was a special athlete. He's as fast as greased lightning & quicker than a chased rabbit. His skill in the open field is exceptional; the best I've seen in many years. His ability to reverse field, start/stop/start and make cutbacks is at the very highest level. He compares very well to most any player 5" shorter and 30 lbs lighter. His balance and quick twitch ability combined with his overall strength make him breathtaking to watch at times. (He did take a play off at Tenn. now and again.) He has excellent balance and proprioceptive skills in space. He's one of those rare players who can change direction w/out bending his knees extensively and still not lose a lot of speed.

What makes him extra special is his vision; his physical skills allow him to execute what his eyes see. And it's truly awe inspiring. This sets him apart from the other receivers and elevates him to the very top of the class. With his superior athleticism but w/out his vision he'd be in the top 15 with potential to be great.

Patterson does come with flaws but most of his flaws can be coached with time. He also comes with some good fundamentals in place. He's a hands catcher and he can make dazzlingly hard breaks although not consistently. He also works back to the QB. He's not a great route runner the way Wheaton or Allen are; he'll round off occasionally but that can be coached. He sometimes makes poor breaks caused by poor footwork leading up to the break but he has the speed to compensate, at least at the college level; that can be coached, too. For timing patterns in the NFL, Patterson will have to correct these technical flaws. He's not proficient with back shoulder throws yet but he should be dominant there real soon. Again, coaching. On deep balls, he's sometimes so eager to run he doesn't look the ball into his hands. This is especially apparent on the easy catches that he drops w/out any contact.

Technically, Patterson is average w/in this draft class and based on technical skill he would rank far lower than where I have him. There is some boom or bust potential with Patterson, agreed, but based on his extreme athleticism and the rapid improvement he made at Tenn. in just 1 year, I think he will become a feared NFL WR with boom/bust being verygood/goat IF he has the capacity to learn which is strictly up BB to determine & about which I do have concerns.

My NFL comparison - Randy Moss crossed with Dez Bryant (no single player comparison would do)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RjxkQXlCAfE

 

[chevss454]

Player Profile

2. Keenan Allen, Cal, 6'2", 206. (contingent upon his pro day April 9)

Allen has the ability to make defenders miss in the open field with a variety of moves that you don't often see from one player in a game, much less within the span of a four-yard gain. Allen lacks elite long speed on film, but he is lightning-quick and sharp with his moves, and he sees these openings in tight quarters.

Allen has the most technically refined technique in this draft. He is very good against press coverage and his ability to swat, swim, swipe, or duck through the jam is apparent. His coordination between his hands and feet is excellent. Only Wheaton fights through press coverage at the LOS better. Once into his stem, Allen makes excellent hard breaks with a strong plant of the front leg and sink of his hips to generate a quick stop and turn. If he had had anyone other than his 169 lb half brother at QB, Allen's stats would reflect his true ability. What the poor quarterback play did reveal is that Allen has a wide catch radius to make acrobatic plays on bad throws. He does an excellent job digging out low passes, high-pointing throws over his head, and extending for balls head or behind him on crossing routes or hooks. He does all of this with athleticism and toughness in spite of contact. His YAC ability is excellent.

Allen's deep speed is my biggest question mark. At worst, he'll be a deep threat in play action only. Given his skill to get early separation, maintain position, adjust to the football, and make acrobatic plays in the open field, Allen should have a great NFL career. His Pro Day is April 9.

My NFL comparison - Jerry Rice. Imo, he's that good technically.

(Highlights...I get it...I'm posting highlight videos only for those who haven't seen these guys play)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1EF0N9S_ZDg

 

[Wilfork#75]

Recently I've gone back and re-evaluated this WR class and looked at who I think fits what I am looking for. Personally I think we need an X and Z WR and I think we can get both in the first 3 rounds. I didn't include Patterson because he will be gone by our first pick and I didn't include Tavon Austin, Keenan Allen, Stedman Bailey and Ryan Swope because I think they are slot WR in the NFL and I don't think their impact and value match up for our needs.

X Receivers

1. DeAndre Hopkins- Clemson

Positives
- Good size, speed
- Very productive
- Excellent route runner
- Good body control, physical down field
- Very good vertical threat, excellent at tracking the deep ball
- Very good at beating press coverage, uses hands and quick feet
- Willing blocker
- Big play threat

Negatives
- Solid but not elite after the catch
- A few questions about his hands
- Can't throw, see GT Game lol

Overall
I think Hopkins is the safest WR in this draft and its not really that close. He is the best route runner of all the outside guys, has good enough speed and athletecism. I like his physicality and he plays the game hard. At worst I think he is a contributing WR, but I think he is a pretty safe #2 with #1 upside. I see a little Julio Jones in him, but not quite as big. Possibly gone by 29.


2. Quinton Patton- Louisiana Tech- X WR

Positives
- Extremely productive
- Good size, speed and athleticism for the outside
- Incredible feet, a nightmare to press at the line
- Excellent after the catch, almost always makes the first man miss
- Very good at tracking the deep ball
- Big play weapon

Negatives
- Limited route tree, can he run anything other than a screen or vertical route?
- Not very crisp routes
- Not great at getting separation on intermediate routes
- Could be more physical
- Have some questions about his hands

Overall
I don't think Patton is a great all around WR at the moment, but he does some things so well it makes up for it. His game is built around his feet, whether beating his man off the line or running after the catch, his lateral agility makes him a nightmare to contain. He should be excellent at beating press coverage in the NFL. He also tracks the deep ball extremely well. If he can learn to run proper routes in the NFL and learn to get separation in the intermediate zones, I think his upside is huge. I was very critical of him earlier but he is starting to grow on me.


3. Da'Rick Rogers- Tennessee Tech

Positives
- Excellent size, speed and athleticism
- Was productive in the SEC in 2011
- Excellent route versatility, works the entire field
- Physical and explosive
- Good after the catch
- Solid hands
- Big time talent
- Despite off field issues he is a football guy

Negatives
- Huge character concerns, was kicked off Tennessee
- Potential drug issues
- Attitude concerns
- Can lose concentration
- Solid but not elite deep threat

Overall
I love the talent, he was my #1 WR going into last season. If he checks out character wise he will be a great pick. Top quality talent, all the skills to be an X WR in the NFL as long as he can keep it together mentally and off the field. Another boom or bust type guy. Should be #2 WR with #1 upside. Most have him in the 3rd round now, but don't she shocked if some team in the mid 20's takes him in the 1st.


Z Receivers

1. Justin Hunter- Tennessee

Positives
- Elite Length
- Freak Athlete
- Huge catch radius
- Dangerous in space
- Smooth and fluid athlete allows him to create separation
- Works the intermediate routes very well
- Versatile route tree
- Uses his body pretty well down the field
- Only scratching the surface of his potential

Negatives
- Inconsistent hands
- Not great in tight spaces, doesn't run screen passes
- Needs to add bulk
- Needs to improve route crispness
- Disappointing production, didn't live up to extremely high expectations
- Still only a year out from major injury
- Needs to learn to be physical at the line against press coverage

Overall
Hunter has the most potential of any WR in this draft and maybe of any WR since Megatron. Elite length and athleticism could make him a superstar. His style is a cross between Randy Moss and AJ Green, but he is still extremely raw. Needs to be more consistent with his hands and learn to be a more precise route runner. Not great in tight space but extremely difficult if you give him room to run. Huge boom or bust guy.

2. Markus Wheaton- Oregon State

Positives
- Good Speed and athleticism
- Great explosion
- Good at tracking the deep ball
- Willing blocker
- Great attitude, hard worker
- Big play threat
- Versatile
- Productive
- Very good after the catch

Negatives
- Doesn't have great size for the outside
- Drops a lot of passes
- Not a crisp route runner
- Not very physical
- Concerns about ability vs press coverage

Overall
I like him but don't love him. He is still raw as a receiver and needs to learn to run proper routes, but with his attitude and work ethic I don't see that as a problem. He has the speed, explosion and athleticism to be a playmaking Z WR and I think he could be a really solid #2 WR in the NFL.


3. Terrence Williams- Baylor

Positives
- Good size and straight line speed
- Huge production
- Pure outside WR
- Excellent running vertical routes and tracking the deep ball
- Good hands, catches the ball away from his body
- Deep threat that will stretch a defense

Negatives
- Limited route runner (seems to only run vertical routes and comebacks)
- Doesn't really work the middle of the field (I don't mind though)
- I have questions about him against press coverage

Overall
I really like him as a #2 WR. Good size and speed allow him to stretch field. Needs increase his route versatility but should be able to contribute a little bit early with his comebacks and vertical routes. He really runs the same routes as Lloyd did last season, but Williams has more big play ability and upside. I like that he naturally catches the ball down the field, he has the deepest average catch position of any of the top WR.


I think if we can land two of these guys, at least one of them being an X WR then I will be very happy. I still need to go back and look at Dobson and Robert Woods, although I think Woods is best suited to play inside in the NFL, but he does offer some versatility outside. Right now to me Markus Wheaton is falling, with questions over his hands, route running, ability to gain separation on intermediate routes and overall upside. My riser is Quinton Patton, who's feet really stood out to me.

 

[Wilfork#75]

Player Profile

2. Keenan Allen, Cal, 6'2", 206. (contingent upon his pro day April 9)

Allen has the ability to make defenders miss in the open field with a variety of moves that you don't often see from one player in a game, much less within the span of a four-yard gain. Allen lacks elite long speed on film, but he is lightning-quick and sharp with his moves, and he sees these openings in tight quarters.

Allen has the most technically refined technique in this draft. He is very good against press coverage and his ability to swat, swim, swipe, or duck through the jam is apparent. His coordination between his hands and feet is excellent. Only Wheaton fights through press coverage at the LOS better. Once into his stem, Allen makes excellent hard breaks with a strong plant of the front leg and sink of his hips to generate a quick stop and turn. If he had had anyone other than his 169 lb half brother at QB, Allen's stats would reflect his true ability. What the poor quarterback play did reveal is that Allen has a wide catch radius to make acrobatic plays on bad throws. He does an excellent job digging out low passes, high-pointing throws over his head, and extending for balls head or behind him on crossing routes or hooks. He does all of this with athleticism and toughness in spite of contact. His YAC ability is excellent.

Allen's deep speed is my biggest question mark. At worst, he'll be a deep threat in play action only. Given his skill to get early separation, maintain position, adjust to the football, and make acrobatic plays in the open field, Allen should have a great NFL career. His Pro Day is April 9.

My NFL comparison - Jerry Rice. Imo, he's that good technically.

(Highlights...I get it...I'm posting highlight videos only for those who haven't seen these guys play)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1EF0N9S_ZDg

I agree with the evaluation of his skill set, my issue is he is a Y WR in the NFL. He lines up mostly in the slot or tight to the line and does all of his damage working over the middle of the field. I love his hands, short route running ability and run after the catch, but I don't see him being very effective on the outside in the NFL which is what we really need. If we didn't sign Amendola I would be much more interested in Allen, but right now I don't see any element he brings that we don't already have. The middle of the field is already congested with Gronk, Hernandez and Amendola, we need guys on the outside to spread the defense out. And from what I've seen from Allen spread out wide I haven't been all that impressed. He is just natural in tight, over the middle and with the ball in his hands. I think he is talented, but we would be trying to force him in here instead of trying to address the issues we already have.

Ultimately I think Allen will be disappointing with his athletic numbers when he finally does work out and will probably fall out of the 1st round. He is much quicker than he is fast I don't expect him to test well (although to me all of those numbers are irrelevant, I care about how they actually play football). Even if he does fall into the early 2nd round I still don't think the value matches his impact on this team, so I would pass for one of the better fits.

 

[chevss454]

I agree with the evaluation of his skill set, my issue is he is a Y WR in the NFL. He lines up mostly in the slot or tight to the line and does all of his damage working over the middle of the field. I love his hands, short route running ability and run after the catch, but I don't see him being very effective on the outside in the NFL which is what we really need. If we didn't sign Amendola I would be much more interested in Allen, but right now I don't see any element he brings that we don't already have. The middle of the field is already congested with Gronk, Hernandez and Amendola, we need guys on the outside to spread the defense out. And from what I've seen from Allen spread out wide I haven't been all that impressed. He is just natural in tight, over the middle and with the ball in his hands. I think he is talented, but we would be trying to force him in here instead of trying to address the issues we already have.

Ultimately I think Allen will be disappointing with his athletic numbers when he finally does work out and will probably fall out of the 1st round. He is much quicker than he is fast I don't expect him to test well (although to me all of those numbers are irrelevant, I care about how they actually play football). Even if he does fall into the early 2nd round I still don't think the value matches his impact on this team, so I would pass for one of the better fits.

Great discussions with both your posts. Unfortunately I'm too busy w/ work to get into your 1st post and give it the time it deserves so Ill respond to this one now.

Allen's pro day performance has me concerned for him, too. If his test parameters don't meet BB's threshold then we're down to only 11 that do meet those criteria. (tongue in cheek...kindof).

As to X vs Z, I've seen nothing from Allen's overall game that makes me think he can't play boundary successfully. In fact, I believe he was placed closer to his half brother QB, Zach, only to make up for Zach's inaccuracy & lack of velocity on longer throws. Allen's strong release, quickness, route running precision and hands are all great attributes for a boundary receiver. Heck, Brandon Lloyd did it adequately for the most part & Allen is a far better player, before and esp. after the catch, than Lloyd.

Aside from his pro day numbers, the biggest concern I have for Allen is his wt. I'd really like to see him gain 10lbs so long as his quickness would remain.

edit: I just went back to my notes on him. There are more than enough plays from him against Cal-Davis, Arizona State, and Nevada that reveal a player with awareness of the sideline, skill with sharp breaks, separation and the ability to make plays more than simple swing passes, screen passes, hooks, and crossers. He lined up at all WR positions, boundary, SE and slot, with equal success while at Cal.

 

[ex's and oh's]

This is a really great thread with great comments all round. I just wanted to ask people about which two wide receivers would complement each other here in New England. If you look at the recent 'double dips', they have been complementary types of player and not the same

2010
Gronk and Hernandez: Two TE's but two different types of player

2011
Vereen and Ridley: Two RB's but two different types of player

2012
Jones and Bequette: Are they different types of DE???

Anyway, I like Wheaton and Boyce (amongst others) but are they too similar? Maybe Wheaton and Rogers or Boyce and Marquess Wilson would be a better combination

Which pair of receivers potentially complement each other the best for the Patriots? I'm sure Bill will be looking to combine two different types...

 

[Wilfork#75]

This is a really great thread with great comments all round. I just wanted to ask people about which two wide receivers would complement each other here in New England. If you look at the recent 'double dips', they have been complementary types of player and not the same

2010
Gronk and Hernandez: Two TE's but two different types of player

2011
Vereen and Ridley: Two RB's but two different types of player

2012
Jones and Bequette: Are they different types of DE???

Anyway, I like Wheaton and Boyce (amongst others) but are they too similar? Maybe Wheaton and Rogers or Boyce and Marquess Wilson would be a better combination

Which pair of receivers potentially complement each other the best for the Patriots? I'm sure Bill will be looking to combine two different types...

My ideal pairing would be Justin Hunter and Quinton Patton, but I don't think we could get both without a trade up from 59. Realistically I would like Patton in the mid 2nd and Da'Rick Rogers in the early/mid 3rd. I would also come back and take Marquess Wilson in the late rounds because I think all 3 could make the roster.

The thing I like about all 3 of these guys is they have the ability to play both the X and Z positions and I think Rogers could also play a bit at Y receiver. Patton is the most limited route runner at the moment, but he is a very good vertical receiver and excellent in the screen game. Rogers works the entire field very well, is physical and can also run after the catch. Wilson is a bit of a mixture of the two, plays all over the field but excels in the vertical game. If we could add these three guys to Amendola, hopefully Edelman and our TE's and I don't think there is an area of the field we couldn't threaten.

I know its probably a lot to ask for 3 rookie WRs to come in and contribute, but if they can win the jobs over Donald Jones and Michael Jenkins then why not. I think at least 2 of the 3 should make it, and I wouldn't count out Wilson beating out the two Vets for the last WR spot.

 

[chevss454]

My ideal pairing would be Justin Hunter and Quinton Patton, but I don't think we could get both without a trade up from 59. Realistically I would like Patton in the mid 2nd and Da'Rick Rogers in the early/mid 3rd. I would also come back and take Marquess Wilson in the late rounds because I think all 3 could make the roster.

The thing I like about all 3 of these guys is they have the ability to play both the X and Z positions and I think Rogers could also play a bit at Y receiver. Patton is the most limited route runner at the moment, but he is a very good vertical receiver and excellent in the screen game. Rogers works the entire field very well, is physical and can also run after the catch. Wilson is a bit of a mixture of the two, plays all over the field but excels in the vertical game. If we could add these three guys to Amendola, hopefully Edelman and our TE's and I don't think there is an area of the field we couldn't threaten.

I know its probably a lot to ask for 3 rookie WRs to come in and contribute, but if they can win the jobs over Donald Jones and Michael Jenkins then why not. I think at least 2 of the 3 should make it, and I wouldn't count out Wilson beating out the two Vets for the last WR spot.

I'm thinking a double dip at WR would be a lot to ask although a very welcome Godsend but, oh my, a triplette would be truly extravagant in my mind. I can't let my guard down far enough to even think about that with the deficiencies on D we need to fill.

I really like the Justin Hunter/Rogers pairing. In most any other draft they'd both be in the top 3-5 range forgetting about Rogers' THC affection. He had 10 consecutive negative tests at Tenn. Tech. and I'm presuming he was negative at the combine. In such a pairing the obvious would be Rogers at SE and Hunter at boundary except that their versatility and speed would allow for movement anywhere including slot. They'd be more like Victor Cruz or Bolden from slot but Cruz & Bolden looked very good this year.

If Marquess Wilson drops to the 7th round BB may grab him. I doubt he drops that far even though he quit the team after accusing his coach of abuse.

 

[chevss454]

Player Profile

5. Tavon Austin, WV, 5'8", 178

I won't spend a lot of time on him simply b/c I doubt BB would take him even if he were available at 29. More likely BB would used him as trade bait, but one never knows & Austin is a helluva good player.

Like CP, Allen, Wheaton & Swope, Austin can be a dynamic receiver and an excellent return guy. I've read some draftniks who have him #1 b/c of his skill as a skitterbug. I don't go that far but the kid does have undeniable skills. He's far more dependent on a team's scheme than the other prospects. To me, Austin is very similar to Dexter McCluster who was drafted in the 2nd rnd by KC. DMc's skill set still hasn't been maximized by KC and DMc is a far better between the tackles runner than Austin is. McCluster has all but disappeared and Austin needs to hope his team fit is better; the other side of that is a team drafting him better know how to use him. Austin is a better natural receiver than McCluster is.

Austin is a hands catcher who is a terror on screens, crossing patterns, wheels and flat routes. These are essentially long handoffs to an open field to get him in space where he excels. Think of Darren Sproles or even Woodhead or WW with us. The difference is that Austin was used far more on deep throws. He's shown the ability to get separation and to make plays with his back to the ball. In this sense, he's more like Eric Metcalf than Sproles. I've also heard Jon Gruden compare Austin to Metcalf.

Like Metcalf, Austin is dangerous as a runner, returner, and receiver. Also similar to Metcalf, Austin’s top-end speed doesn't translate to the field on deep routes because he can get shoved off course by defensive backs fighting for position. This is the biggest reason I don't put him higher. Austin has room to improve versus press coverage, executing hard breaks, and making plays on the perimeter sideline but he'll never be the well rounded receiver the other top receivers will be. Even on his bread-and-butter routes, Austin has to do a better job of sharpening his breaks to maintain good position so trail coverage has no chance to cut in front to defend the pass.

What Austin offers a team is an interior slot receiver and RB capable of running short to intermediate routes. As we've seen, that can be valuable. As a running back, Austin has good burst and understands zone running to get down hill early to time his burst. Austin has moves on top of moves that he can ad lib and vary in ways that make defenders miss or get him into the open field. He needs to improve his vision once he gets through the LOS; he runs hell bent for leather the way a shooting guard might drive the paint w/out the patience, skill or awareness a more seasoned point guard would. He lacks the vision and decision making skills of Patterson, Allen & Wheaton & doesn't set up moves like they do in the open field. Chances are his speed and quickness allowed him to get by in HS and college so those skills never developed like they'll need to in the NFL.

You'd never know this when you watch him as a return specialist though. He shows excellent patience setting up blocks and he knows just when to turn a head fake, change directions ever so slightly and turn on the jets. He has a huge assortment of moves and counter moves as a return guy that you don't always see when he's a RB. Austin will be hell on wheels as a return guy right away & he'll contribute from the slot quickly, too.

As a RB, Austin will be a liability on passing downs since an arm swipe reduces him to rubble. An OC will have to be careful about placing his QB in jeopardy w/ Austin as a blocker. It's not happening. For this reason, vertical passing teams & west coast based offenses will/should pass on him. He'd get Rothlisberger or Cutler killed and he isn't big enough to be effective for SF's running game. Seattle, NO, Washington, Denver & teams built like them could be perfect though.

As time goes on, Austin's true value will be as a receiver. If Austin develops an effective deep game, he could be very special.

NFL comparison is Eric Metcalf.