Can We Stop Jax Running Game w/o Vince

[DarrylS]

I hope I'm wrong, I hope I'm sincerely wrong. I jsut think they need to utilize a 4-3

Is switching defensive alignments that easy to go from a 3-4 to a 4-3?? From what I have read, heard and seen it is ok situationally, but to completely come in with a new scheme does not seem feasible in one week, for one opponent and based on Wilfork's injury. My experience is that there is no quick fixes or easy answers, as fans we tend to simplify.

 

[BlitzFritz]

I hope I'm wrong, I hope I'm sincerely wrong. I jsut think they need to utilize a 4-3

Makes sense that the 4-3 would compensate more for Wright in the middle.
That said, the 3-4 with Wright worked very well i thought against a crumby Houston team. IF Wright can avoid getting completely blown off the line, Tedy and Vrabes will clean it up.

 

[JR4]

You do realise this isn't a Colts board right?

Seriously....175?

Thats an outrageous prediction - i look forward to you eating some humble pie sunday night.

NM

Is it really that outrageous?

Jags have averaged 163 yds rushing per game.
Against Miami, one of the better rund Ds, they got 150 yds.
They have very good RBs beside Taylor.
They are built for power running ... Big Oline ... Big TEs ... Big RBs.
They just run over people.
Now PATs come into the game with some good Run D stats themselfs.
But there have injury changes over last month and now Wilfork will proably
not play and Wright is dinged.

Again I ask, is it really that outrageous?

I think Jags are going to try and run run run. If PATs can't get a 10
point lead early I think they keep running it. They will want to take time off
the clock and just keep the chains moving by running it.
PATs need to get some good stops on 1 and 2nd downs and force them
into the air. ... a lot easier said than done.
I just hope no major injuries on either side. This is going to be a very very
physical game.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Makes sense that the 4-3 would compensate more for Wright in the middle.
That said, the 3-4 with Wright worked very well i thought against a crumby Houston team. IF Wright can avoid getting completely blown off the line, Tedy and Vrabes will clean it up.

The 3-4 tends to be a stronger D against the run. BB has commented on the 4-3 as a slightly better formation for pass defense.

I have doubts for the 4-3 compensating for Wright, against Houston he is drawing double-teams consistently in the tape I have watched. In limited reps earlier in the season he also drew double-teams. If the Jacksonville C is unable to handle Wright one-on-one, then one of the ILBs should be unblocked. Houston also doubled one of the the DEs depending on which side they tried to run to, Warren more than Seymour as I saw it, but this also takes away another blocker from a LB. The other disadvantage to the 4-3, you replace one of the faster LBs with a slower DL.

I expect Wright to work out fine inside on the nose, Vince played poorly over the first half of last season, trying to do to much and over-pursuing. He improved over the second half of the season to the point where he was plugging things up very well. This year he's had his bad plays, but he is doing quite well. Wright is more disciplined inside than Vince was to start last year, even though he may not be a stubborn a plug in the middle, he still forces the OL to work around him, giving the LBs and DEs a chance to fight off their blocks and make a play.

I believe in Wright, I note BB speaks well of him every time he is asked, no hedging as he will for some who have been noted underachievers. Think positive!

 

[jczxohn1]

Wright may not have the heft of Vince, but some have commented he is one of the strongest players on the team. His speed is well-known. Starting against Houston was a good break-in for him and the practice Thurs to adjust their fit should make the center of the D well prepared. If Mike can penetrate, he should be able to run Gerrard down. Having 2 MLB's and possibly a safety in the box to back him up shouldn't make us too nervous about the lack of Vince. Sey and Ty should draw the double-teams most of the time. Covering the cut-back lanes and finding that lttle s.o.b. will be the worst of it.

 

[MrBigglesWorth]

Is switching defensive alignments that easy to go from a 3-4 to a 4-3?? From what I have read, heard and seen it is ok situationally, but to completely come in with a new scheme does not seem feasible in one week, for one opponent and based on Wilfork's injury. My experience is that there is no quick fixes or easy answers, as fans we tend to simplify.

They played some 4-3 in the miami game which was good the first half. The first jets game they played 4-3.

I just see wright getting blown off the ball in the 3-4 against the jags

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

They played some 4-3 in the miami game which was good the first half. The first jets game they played 4-3.

I just see wright getting blown off the ball in the 3-4 against the jags

Miami didn't have Brown and the Jets didn't have a rushing attack worth beans at that point of the season - the 4-3 was used against teams expected to rely on the pass, especially a short passing game in lieu of a run game.

Now your prediction of 175 yds rushing for the Jags against the Pats D with Wright assumes the Pats D is downgraded to the point that they are the equivalent of a bottom 13 rushing defense. Jax has faced 4 top 11 rushing D's Dallas, Pit, Mia, and NYG which works out this way: Jax rush O avg. vs. top 11 rushing Ds = 125.75 yds/game.

Jax has faced 10 bottom 13 rushing defenses: Against bottom 13 rush D = 179.1 yds/game.

The Pats' rush defense is currently ranked #4, it's a bit hard to buy into your pessimism Biggie, expecting the loss of Wilfork and addition of Wright to double the Pats current rush yds/game facing Jacksonville (87.7 yds/game to 175 yds for Jax). Happily, we'll know the answer in 15 hours if not sooner.

For reference, below is the Jax schedule: Date, team, rush D rank at the end of week 15, and Jax rush yds vs. that D as compiled using NFL.com stats.

Sep 10 Dallas 7 78
Sep 18 Pittsburgh 5 110
Sep 24 Indy 32 191
Oct 1Washington 21 33
Oct 8 Jets 24 181
Oct 22 Houston 20 102
Oct 29 Philly 28 209
Nov 5 Tenn 29 173
Nov 12 Houston 20 118
Nov 20 Giants 11 165
Nov 26 Buff 27 207
Dec 3 Miami 8 150
Dec 10 Indy 32 375
Dec 17 Tenn 29 202

 

[Flying Fungi]

The 3-4 tends to be a stronger D against the run. BB has commented on the 4-3 as a slightly better formation for pass defense.

I have doubts for the 4-3 compensating for Wright, against Houston he is drawing double-teams consistently in the tape I have watched. In limited reps earlier in the season he also drew double-teams. If the Jacksonville C is unable to handle Wright one-on-one, then one of the ILBs should be unblocked. Houston also doubled one of the the DEs depending on which side they tried to run to, Warren more than Seymour as I saw it, but this also takes away another blocker from a LB. The other disadvantage to the 4-3, you replace one of the faster LBs with a slower DL.

I expect Wright to work out fine inside on the nose, Vince played poorly over the first half of last season, trying to do to much and over-pursuing. He improved over the second half of the season to the point where he was plugging things up very well. This year he's had his bad plays, but he is doing quite well. Wright is more disciplined inside than Vince was to start last year, even though he may not be a stubborn a plug in the middle, he still forces the OL to work around him, giving the LBs and DEs a chance to fight off their blocks and make a play.

I believe in Wright, I note BB speaks well of him every time he is asked, no hedging as he will for some who have been noted underachievers. Think positive!

shocked that you got suckered into a 4-3 being mutually exclusive from the 3-4 discussion.

i proffer a mixed front in this game with a lot of 4-3 looks dropping to the 3-4 and plenty of the inverse.

i referred to it as a 'slant' 4-3 in another thread as i see the front as sey, warren, colvin with changeups based upon the availability of wright and the performance of tully and the performance of tedy and vrabel. very possbile to see seymour warren in the middle and colvin/jarvis in 2 and 3 point stances.

if we give up 175, it is because we are up at the half by 20+ pts and we simply revert to containment

 

[RayClay]

No, I repeat no if they stay in the 3-4. Ron Dayne picked up about 90 or so yards. If no vince and the Pats stay in the 3-4 I think they'll be shredded for 175+ yards rushing minimum.

Interesting question, so I'll quote you. Dayne gained some yards up the middle, but we were up 27 points by halftime.

In those circumstances, wouldn't we be playing soft, prevent defenses with extra DBs and be perfectly willing to give up some ground yards while preventing the big play?

How many minutes into that game did their ground game become irrelevant?

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

shocked that you got suckered into a 4-3 being mutually exclusive from the 3-4 discussion.

i proffer a mixed front in this game with a lot of 4-3 looks dropping to the 3-4 and plenty of the inverse.

i referred to it as a 'slant' 4-3 in another thread as i see the front as sey, warren, colvin with changeups based upon the availability of wright and the performance of tully and the performance of tedy and vrabel. very possbile to see seymour warren in the middle and colvin/jarvis in 2 and 3 point stances.

if we give up 175, it is because we are up at the half by 20+ pts and we simply revert to containment

Um, the Patriots almost always play a variable defensive formation - you could argue TBC and Colvin sliding out over the slot receiver turns the 3-4 into a 3-3 nickel. Passing downs are almost always a 4-3 look putting the best pass rushers into the game in an ears pinned back mode.

Biggie's premise is a 3-4 formation used approximately 80% of the time with Mike Wright starting at NT against the Jaguars will result in 175 yds rushing on the ground - almost double the Patriots' current rush defense average of 87.7 yds/game. My counterpoint assumes Wright is playing better than he is credited and his presence will not allow Jacksonville to run roughshod over the Patriots in Wilfork's absence. To paraphrase one of the more obnoxious posters on this board, "I am right and he is wrong, have a nice day." (See, I even add the smiley of "just kidding" to soften the expression, ain't I lovable? Yes, I must answer for myself because I sweated blood for this team and will cry and get ill if anyone doubts me.)

Okay, enough channeling gutter leavings...your slant 4-3 described above would be more of a pass rush formation. If they do go to a 4-3 as the primary game formation, I would expect Sey and Wright inside, with Jarvis and Ty at DE, putting Vrabel at SLB and Colvin at WLB with that other guy, you know - what's his name, hanging free in the middle. This is a slower formation should they choose this route, and one I would consider less likely to contain Garrard in the pocket. It is also interesting to note, that Jacksonville played three base 3-4 teams Dallas 78 yds/rushing, Pit 110 yds/rushing, and Jets 181 yds/rushing - all at home by the way. I'd like to think the Pats, even with Wright playing in place of Wilfork, are closer to Dallas and Pittsburgh in their 3-4 rushing game defensive capability than Mangini's first year boys. Call me a hopeless optimist! Now, if the Pats can just contain the passing game and Special Teams, they might be the first 3-4 club to beat Jax at home this season...

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

You may be right, but I stand by my prediction and remember the size of Jacksonville's wr's.

175+ if wright is in the middle in the 3-4 the majority of the time.

http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/gamebook/NFL_20061224_NE@JAC

Jags 144 total yds.

 

[PatsSteve1]

Jags 144 total yds.[/QUOTE]


* 74 of those yards on 1 run that Tully should have stopped. I don't think Wright was at fault on that play. I thought he did a pretty good job in there and din't get pushed around. He tied for 2nd in tackles according to Nfl.com with 4 unassisted. Speaking of tackles, the Patriots missed a few they should have made in today's game.

 

[MrBigglesWorth]

http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/gamebook/NFL_20061224_NE@JAC

Jags 144 total yds.

I'll eat crow. Mike Wright and the Defense played a heck of a game. That Drew is good, very powerful. Scary to think how good the defense will be when Wilfork returns.

I'm happy I was wrong.

Kudos to Wright.

 

[psychoPat]

http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/gamebook/NFL_20061224_NE@JAC

Jags 144 total yds.

Call the hoodlum down in the backfield on his fluke TD
and they'd have had under 70 ...
a bit over 3 ypc.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Jags 144 total yds.

* 74 of those yards on 1 run that Tully should have stopped. I don't think Wright was at fault on that play. I thought he did a pretty good job in there and din't get pushed around. He tied for 2nd in tackles according to Nfl.com with 4 unassisted. Speaking of tackles, the Patriots missed a few they should have made in today's game.[/QUOTE]I can't fault TBC on that, with all the penalties for roughing he didn't try to pile on to a player who was down - if not by contact with a Pats player. Life's a beach.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

I'll eat crow. Mike Wright and the Defense played a heck of a game. That Drew is good, very powerful. Scary to think how good the defense will be when Wilfork returns.

I'm happy I was wrong.

Kudos to Wright.

Now we have to work on your optimism.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Call the hoodlum down in the backfield on his fluke TD
and they'd have had under 70 ...
a bit over 3 ypc.

Hoodlum isn't right F2P, he was cleared of any wrong-doing by video showing he wasn't involved in the incident. Hopefully he learned a little about Ricky Manning Jackarse. The scamp can run with power and get under people's pads - I loved Wright's takedown and how TBC got peeved after that fluke TD and made it his mission to get to him on running plays.

 

[jczxohn1]

Wright may not have the heft of Vince, but some have commented he is one of the strongest players on the team. His speed is well-known. Starting against Houston was a good break-in for him and the practice Thurs to adjust their fit should make the center of the D well prepared. If Mike can penetrate, he should be able to run Gerrard down. Having 2 MLB's and possibly a safety in the box to back him up shouldn't make us too nervous about the lack of Vince. Sey and Ty should draw the double-teams most of the time. Covering the cut-back lanes and finding that lttle s.o.b. will be the worst of it.

Mike held up very well in the middle. He and Warren were the omly one's to stone Jones-Drew singlehandedly, IIRC. Take away his long run and he didn't do much, especially in the 3rd qtr.