Can we get the 2nd seed?

[carolinatony]

I see the Ravens losing at K.C. and maybe at the Steeles which leaves us with S.D. for the 2nd seed. They have to play K.C,Denver and Seattle so they could lose 1 or 2 more games?
Thank we can do it?

 

[Michigan Dave]

Absolutely. In fact, at this point, I think we're the favorite to pick it up. I like our chances a LOT.

 

[BelichickFan]

If we win out and SD loses two we're in - if they lose one and it's a conference game then we both have 3 conference losses (the first tiebreaker) and I think it goes to common opponents then.

Someone smarter than me can figure that out.

Bottom line, if we only need to gain one game (if we win the tiebreaker), I like our chances. But if we need to gain two games (if SD wins the tiebreaker) then I don't.

The SD-Denver game might be pivotal as that's a common opponent.

From a quick look, I think SD would win the common opponent tiebreaker, though it was a quick look.

Let's root for Buffalo on Sunday as that's a Conference Game for SD and a Common Opponent. Buffalo has won 3 out of 4 since they lost to us, the only loss being by 1 to Indy . . .

GO BILLS

 

[Michigan Dave]

If we win out and SD loses two we're in - if they lose one and it's a conference game then we both have 3 conference losses (the first tiebreaker) and I think it goes to common opponents then.

Someone smarter than me can figure that out.

Bottom line, if we only need to gain one game (if we win the tiebreaker), I like our chances. But if we need to gain two games (if SD wins the tiebreaker) then I don't.

The SD-Denver game might be pivotal as that's a common opponent.

From a quick look, I think SD would win the common opponent tiebreaker, though it was a quick look.

Let's root for Buffalo on Sunday as that's a Conference Game for SD and a Common Opponent. Buffalo has won 3 out of 4 since they lost to us, the only loss being by 1 to Indy . . .

GO BILLS

I thought I read somewhere that we would win the tiebreaker? Maybe not. It's been a long week.

 

[carolinatony]

If........
I still can't believe the Jets beat us. That may hurt us

 

[BelichickFan]

I thought I read somewhere that we would win the tiebreaker? Maybe not. It's been a long week.

From a quick look, I think we'd lose it. Mostly because we lost to Denver and SD would be either 1-1 or 2-0. Of course, there's more games to go including Buffalo.

 

[Michigan Dave]

From a quick look, I think we'd lose it. Mostly because we lost to Denver and SD would be either 1-1 or 2-0. Of course, there's more games to go including Buffalo.

That makes sense.

 

[Kdo5]

Maybe but I bet we get the #3 seed.

 

[BelichickFan]

If it comes down to Common Opponents :

SD is 1-0 against Denver, 1-0 against Tenessee. They still have Buffalo and Denver.

That's 2-0 with 2 to go.

We're 2-0 against Buffalo, 0-1 against Denver with Tenessee to go.

I think that's it.

If you assume we beat Tenessee, we're 3-1.
SD would need to sweep their two to be 4-0, a split would be 3-1. Them being swept is 2-2.

I have no idea what the next tiebreaker is.

Of course, conference record is the first tiebreaker, if SD lost one of the above and won out, with us winning us, conference record and common opponents would be tied. Assuming my quick look is correct.

Believe it or not it looks like the innocuous "Strength of Victory" is next. Time to root for AFC East teams, just in case

 

[wistahpatsfan]

What exactly is strength of victory. Is it about the point differential accumulation of all wins? If so, SD must have the upper hand.

 

[BelichickFan]

What exactly is strength of victory. Is it about the point differential accumulation of all wins? If so, SD must have the upper hand.

It's the winning percent of the teams the teams in question (SD and NE in this case) have beaten :

"Definition: A part of the NFL's tiebreaking proceedure, strength of victory is figured by calculating the combined winning percentage of the opponents a team has beaten."


http://football.about.com/cs/football101/g/gl_strengthofvi.htm

 

[QuiGon]

I see the Ravens losing at K.C. and maybe at the Steeles which leaves us with S.D. for the 2nd seed. They have to play K.C,Denver and Seattle so they could lose 1 or 2 more games?
Thank we can do it?

I think there's a good chance we get the #2 seed. The media, with their memory span of 1 week, is currently going ga-ga for SD, just like they did for Chicago 2 weeks ago or the Giants 5 weeks ago. But SD is a beatable team. They could lose to Denver or KC. Heck, I think they will have a tough time in Buff this weekend.

NE will have to win out, but that is entirely possible given the quality of their opponents from here on.

 

[brdmaverick]

of course, all these scenarios are assuming that we win out our remaining schedule.

That could happen, but as much as we are thinking that the Ravens will lose to the Cheifs/Steelers, I'm sure Ravens/Chargers fans see us losing to the Dolphins and/or Jaguars on the road.

 

[BelichickFan]

of course, all these scenarios are assuming that we win out our remaining schedule.

That could happen, but as much as we are thinking that the Ravens will lose to the Cheifs/Steelers, I'm sure Ravens/Chargers fans see us losing to the Dolphins and/or Jaguars on the road.

I think the assumption of winning out is purely hypothetical because the question is practically moot if we lose a game.

 

[Pats726]

I agree and that makes this week's Mia-Jax game so important..the Jags win and they are looking better and Mia is dowm a bit and Mia wins and they will look mighyu tough next week...A BIG game in FL...

 

[fgssand]

I agree and that makes this week's Mia-Jax game so important..the Jags win and they are looking better and Mia is dowm a bit and Mia wins and they will look mighyu tough next week...A BIG game in FL...

In the NFL, one never knows - the knife could cut both ways. Miami wins two in a row and next thing you know - we are right where we were after the Jets beat us in Foxboro - A one game lead in our division, this time with four games to play.

I think it more likely that we win out as opposed to going say 4-2, but it could happen.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

I say someone rears up and bites us between now and the end of the season... a mini-streak of 5 in a row is just not something I bet on happening. Maybe I would have, before losing to the Jets -- up until that point, it seemed we only lost to good teams (at the time we played them -- see the Donks.)

As previously put, the NFL is like that... there are always upsets. That applies to everybody across the board. We could win out -- in that case, 13-3 should be good enough for the 2 seed (and a bye week).

It's way harder to win 4 straight in the post-season, than 3 straight, so yes, we do need that 2 seed. But that pertains to the Bolts (and Ravens) as well. The beauty of that fact (as of now,) is we have an easy schedule from here on in, with Jax being the only team on ours that's in serious playoff contention.

Last thing... you look at the Jets' sked, versus Denver and KC, and it becomes clear that you can't count out the Jets as a wild card... whoda thunk?

Almost a third of a season left here, folks -- and the best third, at that! WOOO HOOO!

PFnV,
screamin like Howard Dean

 

[PatsFanInMaine]

Strength of Victory is determined by adding up the total amount of wins of all the teams you have beaten. Who ever has the higher total wins.

 

[Isaac]

Guess you all missed the tiebreaker analysis I posted earlier in the week:

http://208.109.107.176/new-england-patriots/messageboard/showthread.php?t=45599&highlight=tiebreaker

It's all about the Bills and Denver games for the San Diego tiebreaker, they have to lose one of those and then we get probably get it.

Here's the common games and strength of victory aspect with the Chargers:
3rd tiebreaker: common games
Common games:
Sep 17 Tennessee Won (Pats to play)
Nov 12 @Cincinnati Won (Pats win)
Nov 19 @Denver Won (Pats loss)
Dec 3 @Buffalo (Pats win X 2)
Dec 10 Denver
Current: SD 3-0, Patriots 3-1
Remaining: SD - Denver and Buffalo; Pats - Tenn.
Outlook: If the Patriots beat Tennessee, SD needs to lose to Denver or Buffalo to force a tie.

4th tiebreaker: Strength of victory. Currently (http://www.nfl.com/standings/conference) the Patriots have an enormous lead, so if it came to this the Patriots probably get it.

 

[Ring 6]

I think we will get the 2 seed. I also can see us running the table and being tied for the 1 seed, because I wouldnt be shocked if Indy loses 2.
Is there any scernario where a 3way tie at 13-3 would get us the 1? I think not, because we would need the 3rd team to have a head to head win over Indy I think.