Can Pats structure contracts for "window" then crash and burn?

[RayClay]

Are you talking artificial contracts, like the present Revis deal - the absurd "salary to make you the highest paid player"-type deals? I always view the "win now" approach as locking players in with high value contracts (outbidding other teams) with bonuses to match (creating lots of "dead money" problems down the road when player skills deteriorate). The artificial deals mean little in terms of flexibility, so I assume you are talking about the latter.

I don't know what I'm talking about, that's why I bring it up. I'm not expecting Revis and Mccourty to take phony contracts, and i hope they can work out something with Mayo and wilfork. Pretty resigned to probably having to replace Vereen and Amendola if they aren't willing to negotiate.

My only point is...the patriots system, Pitt, Dallas, whatever you can think of manages to be competitive year after year and expects to have to patch certain positions with low priced players.

Brady is playing like ak id, but there will come a time when he's either a little slower, or gone and a new dynasty will have to be built. It's just reality. We don't need to get a single high priced free agent to have a great, but expensive team with our core players now.

 

[RayClay]

You're not stating facts, You are shouting out nonsense and claiming them to be facts.

Everyone here would love to win a superbowl, ALMOST everyone here knows that overspending and committing the future on a chance to win now is incredibly stupid.

BB is not going to sacrifice the future by giving players like andre johnson and Suh 50 million dollar bonuses on 5 year contracts for tiny cap hits this year in order to MAYBE win another superbowl this year.

It's incredibly stupid planning, and reeks of "I'm pretty okay at madden and fantasy football" thinking

I guess you just write and don't read my posts. I want to keep our core players. I do not want to sign a single high priced free agent.

 

[RayClay]

This is what the cap is about.
If you made every player on the Oakland Raiders free agents, they could resign them all, and have room to spare under the 143mill cap. If you did that with the Patriots, you would probably need 180 mill.
When you have the best talent in the league, in a capped league, it means you are getting more for your $ than anyone else. When that fixed and low $ comes up for renewal, you cannot afford the new cost unless you change something else.
We went through this from 04-06, its the price of success.

I am hardly a capologist, but we did keep that core together a few years and it was infortunate [though we had good seasons ] that those teams had weakness. All I'm saying is, if we strained our resources so it hurt us later, I wouldn't mind since the next three years of Brady is a unique situation. We'll still likely have good teams, hell the 2001 team was voted, and reported on by Joel Buschbaum as the least likely to win the superbowl because of previous overspending.

Sure like to see the maturity of our young linebackes with Revis and McCourty and a good defensive line while bradt is still excellent.

My thread hyperbole, so i guess it's my fault that some people [not you] only read the thread title.

 

[MassPats38]

I don't know what I'm talking about, that's why I bring it up. I'm not expecting Revis and Mccourty to take phony contracts, and i hope they can work out something with Mayo and wilfork. Pretty resigned to probably having to replace Vereen and Amendola if they aren't willing to negotiate.

My only point is...the patriots system, Pitt, Dallas, whatever you can think of manages to be competitive year after year and expects to have to patch certain positions with low priced players.

Brady is playing like ak id, but there will come a time when he's either a little slower, or gone and a new dynasty will have to be built. It's just reality. We don't need to get a single high priced free agent to have a great, but expensive team with our core players now.

In my opinion, the Pats don't go ridiculously low, but they also will not match what other non-competitive teams will throw at players they value. Winning has its own value. If a player is truly looking for top dollar, then I believe the Pats ultimately will fold. The discussion on Sirius NFL early this week described the logic of balancing team environments with contract money. The problem with the present phase of the process is we are left guessing at what the players up for deals really want and value. In the next few days, we will have our answers.

 

[Oswlek]

So, everyone is OK with losing Revis and McCourty as long as we don't hurt our ability to pay people in 3-4 years?

Who said that?

However, do we want to risk losing Revis, McCourty and more, as super bowl players demand big contracts, so we can be a decent team (poor interior line without Wilfork, Average secondary) now and a decent team with eirther an old, or untested QB later?

This seems like textbook false dichotomy. Why do they have to lose all of those people to have a shot to win in 4 years?

BB majored in economics. Economics is situational, not constant. A fit and athletic tom Brady is the rarest commodity of all, and a real chance at winning multiple super bowls is too.

And any economist will tell you that risking the solvency of several future years for uncertain success in the current is a poor trade off.

I'm confused as to why this is coming up now. Coming off a season when the narrative was that Bill hasn't done enough to surround Brady with talent only to end with a Lombardi... if anything that should cement the legitimacy of business as usual. I also don't know why people as so worried about losing everyone. The team is mandated to spend a crap-ton of cash this offseason and they aren't just going to piss it away.

One other thing, JG may never be as good as Brady, but he doesn't have to be. Eli is a two time champion, for god's sake, and Flacco has a SB and several AFC championships. Greatness at the QB position is a free pass into the second round, but it's clearly not a necessity for a SB winner. Is it really that inconceivable that Jimmy is as good as Eli, Joe or 2001 Brady?

 

[RayClay]

And any economist will tell you that risking the solvency of several future years for uncertain success in the current is a poor trade off.

In the long run, we are all dead.

A famous economist.

 

[RayClay]

I'm confused as to why this is coming up now. Coming off a season when the narrative was that Bill hasn't done enough to surround Brady with talent only to end with a Lombardi.

Who said that?

This could be the most talented Pats team ever, led by Revis and Browner and two mid level free agent receivers to add to the fruit of about 4-5 years of drafts on defense and Wilfork and Gronk.

People say a lot of things. Do you seriously not think this team has weapons? The only weak spot I could see would be offensive guard and we still had two veterans there.

 

[Oswlek]

Who said that?

This could be the most talented Pats team ever, led by Revis and Browner and two mid level free agent receivers to add to the fruit of about 4-5 years of drafts on defense and Wilfork and Gronk.

People say a lot of things. Do you seriously not think this team has weapons? The only weak spot I could see would be offensive guard and we still had two veterans there.

Last year? Just about everyone. Recall the articles comparing Denver's aggressive spending and NE's laissez faire approach? And how bad things got after the KC game?

It is so silly in retrospect but we forget how many people were convinced that Bill wasn't urgent enough about talent acquisition and it was why NE couldn't get over the hump. Plenty of those people were in NE as well.

 

[Patriots1364life]

I am just amazed that this team has cap issues yet their d line is very underwhelming. Lets be honest its not a strenght.

 

[RayClay]

Last year? Just about everyone. Recall the articles comparing Denver's aggressive spending and NE's laissez faire approach? And how bad things got after the KC game?

It is so silly in retrospect but we forget how many people were convinced that Bill was urgent enough about talent acquisition and it was why NE couldn't get over the hump. Plenty of those people were in NE as well.

Well, I ignore those people every year, so I don't know why I should care now. They want 5 all pro WR every year.

We've posted here a long time,I'm sure you see I have taken the opposite position very strongly, saying being competitive every years is what counts, because you never know.

I'm just throwing it out that, in my opinion, the philosophy i've mocked makes sense because we have a team, we don't need FA, and there is a legitimate window, even if Brady plays like a star til he's 45.

Just remember the teams before the salary cap that rode the core of players to multiple SBs and close calls. You could still sign the important players and save money with draft picks and street FA.

 

[RayClay]

I am just amazed that this team has cap issues yet their d line is very underwhelming. Lets be honest its not a strenght.

It's decent now , but either needs a year or two of wilfork-Easley and the rest, or Easley and find a dominating big guy yhat's affordable. Broncos did it with Pot roast, but that's the exception, not the rule.

 

[Oswlek]

You could still sign the important players and save money with draft picks and street FA.

Sure, which was my point about the false dichotomy. I don't see a reason why NE can't bring back Revis and McCourty and still be within their normal business model. It requires hard decisions in other areas of the roster, but Wilfork already fits that bill.

{Insert requisite line about eating and having cakes here}

 

[RayClay]

Sure, which was my point about the false dichotomy. I don't see a reason why NE can't bring back Revis and McCourty and still be within their normal business model. It requires hard decisions in other areas of the roster, but Wilfork already fits that bill.

{Insert requisite line about eating and having cakes here}

Even though i was being provocative with the title, I'd like to see [if the price is competitive], Mayo and Wilfork signed. In a couple or three years, they'll be gone, along with revis though i'd backup the money truck there. As AJ mentioned, we had some lean years after 04 and were still competitive. took us five years to start really rebuilding the LB corps.

I just wouldn't mind some creative accounting for this team and this Tom [hee hee]

 

[Oswlek]

took us five years to start really rebuilding the LB corps.

I've wondered about that. What took so long? Is it just a coincidence that every successful LB in the system was a vet? Or that most of them were drafted in the 3rd round or later? Did Bill think it wasn't worth a high pick because you wouldn't get enough value the first couple years? Was there a dearth of quality vets available?

I'd love to see Wilfork back as well. No matter what, NE is going to have to earmark a couple million for that position, so it might as well just go to Vince. If he doesn't come back, I suspect DT is going to be a focus of the draft. Mayo is a different animal. He can't be released as easily and he can't be released at all until he proves healthy. I expect him to be back with a restructure.

 

[mgteich]

Hate these panic threads about losing every player (while, amazingly we always could sign someone else's) but this year there's definitely merit to them.

People have always talked about a window and the team has ignored it, fortunately, thereby having a chance to win every single year since 2002.

However, you can't deny there's a window now as Brady will retire someday, and the chance for multiple rings with this team is deadly serious.

I've always maintained that the Pats almost always retain players they want, that want to play here. Most big name cuts were older players, or ones where there was some friction.

Say we want Revis, McCourty for a few years and I'll say Mayo too and Wilfork 1 or 2 [so we don't end up the Colts until we get some building blocks and Easley and the overachievers can take over]. (Please, no Wilfork or Mayo bashing, there are already threads for that.)

So, we maintain our core through clever accounting and crash later. Is this possible financially?

Miguel, it would be wondeful if you'd like to chip in...

Yes, the patriots could have kept Revis, McCourty, Mayo and Wilfork if they so chose, with no crash and burn later.

The team chose not to pay a safety $9.5M. They can still negotiate and bid for him. They could pay him $10M a year for 6 years.

The team could pay Revis $16M a year and not count any more than $5M against the 2015 cap. The obvious tactic for keeping him for the duration of the window is to sign him to a 5 or 6 year contract with fake years at the end.

Mayo is going nowhere. If he is healthy, we will have the best LB corp in the NFL. If he isn't we owe him $4.5M for this year anyway. He will restructure. The question is total compensation.

Wilfork amy be re-signed if the team wants. Perhaps the team would prefer Knighton or someone else for the money.
======================
2015 CAP COSTS (could be made even lower
McCourty $6M (6/$60 $10M AAV)
Revis $6M (4/$70, $15 AAV)
Wilfork $4M (Belichick might prefer replacement)
overage $4M
total $20M

SOURCES
Revis ($14M)
Mayo restructure ($4M) with no reduction of pay if he meets incentives
Browner restructure ($2M) with no reduction in pay
total ($20M)

THIS IS NOT CRASH AND BURN

There are other possibilities for reducing the cap hit. After all there are more needs. Restructures to Amendola, Arrington, Gronkowski, Solder and Brady are all possible (totaling over $15M or more.

ADDITIONAL NEEDS
Re-sign or replace (net cap cost)
Vereen $3M
Connolly $2M
Casillas $1M
Branch $1M
Ridley $1M

Amendola might also be replaced.

 

[neali]

Well, if you don't want any more super bowls, I guess we don't have a discussion.

By the way "Bill" is the one committed to 37 million in two years (?) for Revis right now.

Bill committed 12 million to sign Revis for one year. The 20 million dollar second year was Revis' agent preventing a franchise tag. And it would be 32 million.

 

[RayClay]

I've wondered about that. What took so long? Is it just a coincidence that every successful LB in the system was a vet? Or that most of them were drafted in the 3rd round or later? Did Bill think it wasn't worth a high pick because you wouldn't get enough value the first couple years? Was there a dearth of quality vets available?

I'd love to see Wilfork back as well. No matter what, NE is going to have to earmark a couple million for that position, so it might as well just go to Vince. If he doesn't come back, I suspect DT is going to be a focus of the draft. Mayo is a different animal. He can't be released as easily and he can't be released at all until he proves healthy. I expect him to be back with a restructure.

It's no coincidence, they didn't draft any. for a long stretch, i think they drafted one in the 5th round and spent on one expensive free agent, Adalius Thomas.

There was a size difference between the average college LB and what we wanted in the 3-4 back then. Bruschi and Vrabel were pass rushing DEs in college.

Maybe the tweeners became more in vogue, so they tried to convert affordable players, since some linemen didn't make good LBs. Anyway, they saved money there, then spent money and picks recently on LBs.

They're always patching one position to save money because they have contracts at another position.

 

[RayClay]

Bill committed 12 million to sign Revis for one year. The 20 million dollar second year was Revis' agent preventing a franchise tag. And it would be 32 million.

Someone posted 25 million, unless i misunderstood.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

Ugh, I am being lazy here because I don't want to navigate away from the page... but I think it's 25M for the year, including 20 in a bonus and 5M in salary. Something like that. Please correct me if I'm wrong.

I think there's still some "we'll keep VW, X, Y, Z, etc." thinking here. I'd love to see it but I think we're parting ways with some guys. The set-up was: If Revis really is Revis as we think he can be, well... we'll have to make some tough choices (and remember, even going the future dead-money route is a tough choice too). VW was already scheduled to hit a new, higher cap plateau this year, for example. Whenever you get to those points, it's always possible that your guy will test some waters... and if the Pats hope to keep Revis, well, there might not be enough to go around for everybody we want to keep. (Okay, Pats, please prove me wrong.)

I see the OP's point here, that the Pats can think in "window" terms and relax about dead money hits in future years a little... but I agree with those who say that even Brady's not bigger than common sense. So maybe there will be some "window" effect, but the decision to franchise Gost instead of someone more costly makes me think, nope, business as usual.

We'll see. Lots of stuff is beyond me in this realm that our capologists understand much better. And then there's the level that an NFL front office functions at, particularly the Pats' front office. I guess one thing you can always say is the off-season is interesting.

 

[RayClay]

Yes, the patriots could have kept Revis, McCourty, Mayo and Wilfork if they so chose, with no crash and burn later.

The team chose not to pay a safety $9.5M. They can still negotiate and bid for him. They could pay him $10M a year for 6 years.

The team could pay Revis $16M a year and not count any more than $5M against the 2015 cap. The obvious tactic for keeping him for the duration of the window is to sign him to a 5 or 6 year contract with fake years at the end.

Mayo is going nowhere. If he is healthy, we will have the best LB corp in the NFL. If he isn't we owe him $4.5M for this year anyway. He will restructure. The question is total compensation.

Wilfork amy be re-signed if the team wants. Perhaps the team would prefer Knighton or someone else for the money.
======================
2015 CAP COSTS (could be made even lower
McCourty $6M (6/$60 $10M AAV)
Revis $6M (4/$70, $15 AAV)
Wilfork $4M (Belichick might prefer replacement)
overage $4M
total $20M

SOURCES
Revis ($14M)
Mayo restructure ($4M) with no reduction of pay if he meets incentives
Browner restructure ($2M) with no reduction in pay
total ($20M)

THIS IS NOT CRASH AND BURN

There are other possibilities for reducing the cap hit. After all there are more needs. Restructures to Amendola, Arrington, Gronkowski, Solder and Brady are all possible (totaling over $15M or more.

ADDITIONAL NEEDS
Re-sign or replace (net cap cost)
Vereen $3M
Connolly $2M
Casillas $1M
Branch $1M
Ridley $1M

Amendola might also be replaced.

Thanks Mgteich, salary cap particulars are not my strong point.

Don't fake years and restructures (as opposed to reductions) cause the salary cap hits to be delayed, possibly resulting in lean years later? Crash and burn was more a joke, but spend now and tighten the belt later is what i mean.

They've always patched at one position to offset spending at another.

I could see getting a younger NT like Knighton, but i'll bet it saves them zero, infact, they might need a bigger contract than a couple years of Vince if he takes a competitive, but not top offer.