Can our offense be better than last years?

[pdangle]

Seems like if we're talking simply matching points per game, one must account for a leaguewide scoring trend which keeps going up and up with rule changes and team adaptations.

So just by this "scoring inflation", Pats probably start with a few touchdowns in the "bank" making it a bit easier to reach last year's milestone if one was so inclined to handicap such a thing.

Now if they are truly "better" than last years team if they do so, just as if 2012 is truly the 4th "best" offense of all time, is debatable. IMO, It's really all about relative scoring differential or sigma compared to your peers.

 

[PatsFan2]

I think it could be more dynamic than last years group why.

1) Armendola is Faster and have a Greater Catch Radius Than Welker.

2) If Dobson or Thomkins are as advertised as Guys who can work the short - itermediate and deeps parts of the field. We have already replaced down on bended knees Brandon Lloyd.

3) I have a feeling Josh Boyce is going to give Edelman a run for the slot position on 3rd downs.

I think we are going to have a very Fast Offense in 2013 similar to the Greatest show on turf.

 

[Kontradiction]

I think it could be more dynamic than last years group why.

1) Armendola is Faster and have a Greater Catch Radius Than Welker.

2) If Dobson or Thomkins are as advertised as Guys who can work the short - itermediate and deeps parts of the field. We have already replaced down on bended knees Brandon Lloyd.

3) I have a feeling Dobson is going to give Edelman a run for the slot position on 3rd downs.

I think we are going to have a very Fast Offense in 2013 similar to the Greatest show on turf.

I wouldn't make sense for Dobson to line up in the slot. He's a natural flanker. If anyone is going to give Edelman or Amendola (depending on whether or not he lines up at split-end) a run in the slot, it's going to be Boyce. His skill set is a much more natural fit for the slot in this offense.

 

[Rob0729]

3) I have a feeling Dobson is going to give Edelman a run for the slot position on 3rd downs.

I assume you mean Boyce and not Dobson. I doubt Dobson will be in the slot on 3rd downs.

 

[VrabelJr]

If Gronk, Amendola, Vereen and Ridley are healthy the entire season, yes. OLine health will be important, too.

 

[Deus Irae]

Can it? Sure. There are 32 offenses in this year's NFL that 'could' be better than the Patriots offense from last year.

Will it? Not without a whole lot of luck, overachievement, etc....

On the positive side, having Brady at QB should be good enough to pencil the offense in at top 5 almost regardless of what weapons he's given. The issue will probably end up being the same as it has since 2008: health going into the playoffs. We'll just have to add "ability of the skill players" to the question, which is where things will differ from most years post-2006.

 

[patfanken]

Talk about unrealistic expectations. How can you expect this offense compare to last season's offense. That's a near impossible task, especially given that as of now they don't have 90% of their receiving production on the field. Even if they had EVERYBODY back, they would be hard pressed to match last season's production both in points AND yards.

Here's what I'm hoping -

1. The OL will truly DOMINATE - Solder should entering his prime, Mankins will be healthier, Wendell should improve on his already surprisingly effective first year as a starter, I have great hopes for Cannon at RG, and a healthier Volmer should round out an OL with unlimited potential. Don't forget that when Gronk comes back, the Pats will add the premier run blocking TE in the league.

Its not being talked about much and there are some depth issues, but this is potentially an OL that is good enough to carry an offense early in the season that is trying to replace virtually their entire receiving corps in one year with mostly rookies

2. I don't want to see Danny Amendola match Welker's stats. If he is, that would mean we are concentrating on him too much, and falling into the same comfort zone that we had with Welker. The offense needs to be more balanced and the ball has to be spread more evenly among the receivers. I really don't want to see any our our receivers "leading the league" in any categories, but I want them all to be in the top 30

3. This pass offense is going to be different. Because all of our receivers have been historically small quick, and NOT physical, separation was a requirement to getting the ball. Now that we have added some true size and physicality to the receiver corps a whole new set of patterns are now available to Josh that he didn't have before.

4. Early on the Pats could very well become the "ground and pound" Patriots. It not only makes sense in order to bring along the new receivers slowly, but because we have the skill sets and talent to do it. We really do have 3 RB's who all have the potential to be 1000 yd rushers. Plus I have always been a Leon Washington fan. He was my favorite/feared Jet back in the day.

5. Because of these realities, I expect Tom Brady NOT to be as good a choice for Fantasy Football; as in recent years. Yet by season's end, I expect this offense to be much more "playoff ready", when Gronk's injuries turned it into a one trick pony. especially around the GL

6. As a fan base, we should all get used to media reports of the coming Pats demise. But instead of railing against it, we should embrace it. I have longed to be the underdog again for a while now.. We should also prepare for stat geeks to talk about Brady's diminishing stat line as a sign he is slowing down, when nothing further can be the truth.

Key stats for Brady watchers will be his TD/pick ratio, yds/completion, and completion percentage, NOT total yards. I fully expect his completion percentage to go down and his yds/completion to go up, as I believe that Brady will be throwing the ball deeper down the field more often this season. And not just bombs, but more intermediate passes as well.

BOTTOM LINE: any offense will be hard pressed to be better than last year's edition. I'd rather think that THIS offense can be just as effective in the end. Time of possession will improve and field position will become more of a factor, and the urgency to score every possession will lessen as the defense becomes a more equal partner. Better? I don't know. Different? For sure.

 

[MoneyFX]

I don't think the offense will put up the same numbers as last season.

But, if Brady has good chemistry with the new targets, the offense can be more varied and actually tougher to stop than in recent years.

The WR group has lots of unknowns. But they actually have the ability to go downfield and make plays with speed, size and physicality. The Patriots have not had that in a long time and it hurt the offense, in the playoffs against the Jets/Ravens/Giants.

In contrast to that, losing Welker, Hernandez and Woodhead really hurts in terms of moving the chains and getting YAC. But the Patriots still have guys who could do that in Amendola, Edelman and Vereen.

The offense has the potential to threaten all parts of the football field. Unlike 2010, 2011 and 2012.

Just like Nunchucks said, this offense could be tougher for the top defenses to stop. I just don't think they will put up the same numbers. Maybe the passing yards are down, but Brady is still very efficient and the rushing yards go up. It doesn't matter if the offense isn't as productive as last year, it just matters if the offense is productive when it counts, in January.

 

[Ring 6]

I think it is incorrect to look at this as what replaces what.
First of all, better is very subjective. Overall in terms of points score, the 2012 offense was incredible, but it still had flaws, some of which led to losses. Scoring 17 points more than needed in a win is not more important tham eliminating the flaw that caused one of your losses.
The offense will be different and it will be good. It will be better in some ways and worse in others.
I expect better OL play because it is likely Mankins and Vollmer will be more healthy, and Connolly, Solder and Wendell are still at the stage where they should be improving with experience.
The running game should be better. Ridley is gaining experience which is important for a RB1 and Vereen is an upgrade to Woodhead.

The passing game is the mystery. But that doesn't necessarily mean bad. Last year we had 1/2 a Gronk. We had a mostly hobbled Murderer who many fans complained about drops and doing little with his catches in Dec and Jan.
You cannot really consider the 2012 offense the dynamic matchup nightmare 2 TE system. We already adapted to not having that to get the 2012 results.
Lloyd is a known commodity, but one most fans thought was worthless. I don't happen to agree with that, but I have little doubt that the role that evolves at his position will not detract from the offense. (ie if we continue to throw there as much we will get as much production and if we do not, we will get as much of more elsewhere).
The real change is no longer being a passing game that revolves around Wes Welker. When you look at what Welker produced, by definition that would seem to be a step backward.
However, this is Tom Brady at the trigger. I have no doubt of a few things:
-If you get open Brady will find you
-You have to be less open to succeed with Brady than with any other QB
-Our offensive scheme is excellent at creating matchups that get receivers open by play design not extraordinary individual ablity.

We will get receivers open. Brady will find them. We will be an excellent passing offense.
The questions to 'better than last year' and by 'better' I always mean result not perception are:
-Will the new WRs struggle in the sight read system, which could slow down the development of the offense
-Will the new scheme be as effective as the Welker-centric one
<and by the way, Welker-centric doesn't mean the number of targets, it means that the passing scheme was design first around Welkers strengths, and the play designs were either to get Welker open, or to use Welker to create room for someone else>
-Other than raw number of points will the move to what appears to be a much more athletically talented, and dynamic WR corps make the offense situationally better.
Top 5 or not, we lost 3 times at home, and were as close as it gets to losing 2 more (Jets and Bills) and each of those games were at least partially due to offensive underperfomance either overall or at critical junctures.
We could score less points (we had 5 games that we won by 28+ points and another we won by 21) but be a better offense, resulting in more wins, and a longer season, ending much more happily.

 

[ivanvamp]

I like the idea of them pounding the ball with the running game. But I still like the up-tempo pace. No reason why they can't run the ball a lot while running the fast-break style of offense.

I think it could especially be effective if you have both Ridley and Vereen in at the same time. You can alternate which backs get the ball (to reduce the wear on either), but Vereen especially gives you great versatility in the passing game.

 

[BradyFTW!]

It's theoretically possible. If Gronk, Vollmer, and Amendola stay healthy, and one of Thompkins/Dobson/Boyce can step in and produce right away, and particularly if Vereen steps up as a key contributor, then it could happen.

I don't expect it, though. I'll gladly settle for a less potent offense that does a better job of stretching the field, though.

 

[goheels22002]

No. Come 'on people.

2012 offense:

34.8 points per game
428 yards per game

Way too many ifs.

I cannot imagine the 2013 offense scoring or piling up yards like the 2012 edition. Nor should we stress about it. Did anybody around here care that the Penguins were the highest scoring team in the NHL in 2013?

(Conversely, I do expect, and really hope, that the defense will be better. Possibly much better.)

The Ravens won the Super Bowl finishing the regular season at 10th in ppg at 24.8 per game and 16th in YPG with 358.5 yards per game.

The transitions on offense from 2012 to 2013 loom large, indeed. But that's okay. If these guys can put up 25+ points a game and control the clock to give the defense a fighting chance, they'll be fine. The '04 SB Champions averaged 27.3 ppg and held the opposition to 16.25 ppg - a defense-oriented balance.

If this defense could get under 20 ppg allowed, (they gave up 20.7 ppg last season), the offense can "take a step back" so many pundits are gassing about and still turn in a playoff-worthy performance.

 

[tasmlab]

TURBO OFFENSE:
That tactic of last year seems like it would be hard to replicate without guys like Branch and Welker who long mind melded with Brady. They may have to huddle to explain things to the rookies.

WEATHER?:
If memory serves, I don't think we really had any cold or snow until after the entire season, which favors higher scores sometimes. If we get typical New England in November and December, I could see the average points per game suffering.

 

[Ring 6]

TURBO OFFENSE:
That tactic of last year seems like it would be hard to replicate without guys like Branch and Welker who long mind melded with Brady. They may have to huddle to explain things to the rookies.

WEATHER?:
If memory serves, I don't think we really had any cold or snow until after the entire season, which favors higher scores sometimes. If we get typical New England in November and December, I could see the average points per game suffering.

Branch was useless. Welker was 'in sync' with Brady from game 1 in 2007, so it is possible Amendola could be also.

We played in freezing rain vs SF and brutal bonechilling cold vs Miami

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

It's possible, but there's lots of If's in that scenario and they depend on completely unproven rookies and a guy who has never lasted long enough to reach 1k in a season.

I think the more realistic hope is a more diverse offense that can do more than just intermediate passing and outside running. Someone steps up as the legit downfield threat, while Ridley improves on his ability in between the tackles and short yardage (maybe Blount or Bolden provides the latter of those).

 

[YearbookCurfew]

Can it? Yes! Will it? Only time will tell.

 

[PatsFan2]

I assume you mean Boyce and not Dobson. I doubt Dobson will be in the slot on 3rd downs.

Sorry and thank you I meant Boyce and not Dobson in the slot...typing fast at work.

 

[Brady6]

If one of the rookie receivers can continue to flash throughout the season, we might finally have a deep threat. If amendola stays healthy, even he is can go deep much more effectively than Welker did.
With a healthy gronkowski, a rookie deep threat, and a healthy amendola, would the void left by Hernandez and Welker really be that large?
Or could the deep threat push defenses back, opening up room for Ridley and Amendola?
What are the chances we have a top 5 offense and a top 10 defense?

I would be inclined to say the offense is going to be different, rather than better or worse. It’s likely to become more balanced and be less fixated on one player; it will also have more dimensions. How that all comes together is hard to determine at this point in the year. I loved Welker but there certainly were limitations to what an offense can do when a 5’9 185 pounder slot wide receiver is your primary playmaker, this was highlighted in the playoffs after Moss was traded in 2010 and Gronk was injured in both the 2011 and 2012 season.

I will say that the offense doesn’t have to be better or even as good as last season because the defensive turnover is finally in a completed stage, when building a team around a salary cap it’s impossible to restock the cupboard with high price established free agents, so eventually you have to use the draft to turnover each skill group.

We’ve done a great job in my opinion rebuilding these skill groups (see below) over the last few seasons all through the draft or UDFA.

Offensive line- Solder, Cannon, Vollmer, Wendell
Front seven- Jones, Hightower, Spikes, Mayo, Collins, Armstead, Bequette, Francis, Fortson, Cunningham, Buchanan
Tight End- Gronkowski, Hernandez, Sudfeld, Ford
Running back- Ridley, Vereen, Bolden
Secondary- McCourty, Dennard, Dowling, Ryan, Arrington, T. Wilson, Harmon
Wide receiver- Dobson, Boyce, Thompkins, Moe, Harrison, Aikens

 

[cstjohn17]

Can our offense be better than last years?

No

Can it play better in the playoffs when it matters? I hope so.

Real question - Can the defense improve enough that there is a better offensive and defensive balance? Balance is needed to be a serious contender.

 

[AzPatsFan]

No. Come 'on people.

2012 offense:

34.8 points per game
428 yards per game

In order for that to happen, we would need:

-Two of the 3 rookie WRs would need to breakout and have seasons comparable to T.Y Hilton and Justin Blackmon last year. (replaces Lloyd and Hernandez production)
-Amendola would need to be healthy all 16 games. (replaces Welker production)
-Gronk would have to come back sooner than later and play well. (Gronk production)
-Sudfeld/Ballard emerge as a good #2 TE next to Gronk or Vereen/Washington emerge as a receiving threat. (replaces Woodhead production)

Way too many ifs.

I agree with the first part of your post. It would be very difficult to beat the overall stats put up last season.

I completely disagree with your verbalization, however. In the 2012 season, none of those unrealistic predictions for individual performances came to pass. Hernandez only played in 9 games. Gronkowski only played in 11. Lloyd caught 70 passes but few went for a First Down and his catch rate was atrocious.

Welker caught hie 100+ plus passes, but his catch rate was the worst of his career, and his drop rate was double what he used to do.

When we got to he Playoffs, the Offense had to go up against great teams, and was shut down since it was concentrated in only three playmakers, one of which was hobbling.

A more balanced Offense with several more playmakers would be more difficult to defend. So even if the total numbers were not as good, the overall Offense could be better.

Last years Defense started to look fair but collaped in the second half of the AFCCG amid injuries to key players, not being able to hold a lead.