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Can our offense be better than last years?

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by Interception, Aug 6, 2013.

  1. Interception

    Interception Rookie

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    If one of the rookie receivers can continue to flash throughout the season, we might finally have a deep threat. If amendola stays healthy, even he is can go deep much more effectively than Welker did.
    With a healthy gronkowski, a rookie deep threat, and a healthy amendola, would the void left by Hernandez and Welker really be that large?
    Or could the deep threat push defenses back, opening up room for Ridley and Amendola?
    What are the chances we have a top 5 offense and a top 10 defense?
  2. fgssand

    fgssand PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    O line is the key, let the returning starters stay healthy and they protect the franchise as well as open up running game. I believe we have the makings of something very special on offense once again this year.

    I have been to 4 practices and have come away very impressed each time with the three rookie wr's and DA. Each rookie brings a different skill set and as long as they can figure out where to go and when to look, I think WR position becomes a strength of the team. DA is all that you have heard so far, bigger, faster, stronger than old #83(I didn't say better, but close and at least maybe).

    Running game looks absolutely stacked and this Sudfeld kid at TE is showing a lot of promise.

    Reality says getting really excited over four rookie skill players is unheard of, but that is exactly what's going on, at least at this early stage of camp. This week in Philly should show us more.
  3. Rob0729

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    Can it? Sure. Will it? I don't know. Maybe by the end of the year.

    I think the offense will have its missteps and bumps in the road early in the season. There are a lot of new pieces and young players. It may take a few weeks for things to come fully together. Luckily the Pats have an easy schedule the first few weeks.

    I think by the end of the year though, this offense could become something special. With Gronk back hopefully at full strength and a deep WR corp and hopefully Vereen hitting like people expect, it could create match up nightmares for opposing defenses. The Pats could go into a five receiver set and potentially every one of the five receivers need to be accounted for because any one of them are legitimate threats.
  4. stcjones

    stcjones Rookie

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    ANYTHING is POSSIBLE with TFB and BB at the HELM.....ANYTHING!!!!!!!! I think in all seriousness we have a whole bunch of talented question marks out there right now...But they are ALL looking very promising.....But we have seen this show before with Chad Jackson, Brandon Tate, Taylor price etc......Who knows what to expect from this cast of rooks at WR and TE? OL has to be as good as last year that is for sure......Amendola has to stay healthy this season....something he has never been able to do for the whole year....We shall see.......too many what if's right now to be able to predict anything.....we shall see!
  5. Nunchucks

    Nunchucks Rookie

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    I think it is hard for it to be "better" than last year. What I am hoping to see is a more diverse offense, one that can do more than throw to Wes Welker and run the ball on quick counts or hurry ups. Patriots need to threaten at every level, I believe this version of the offense will do that...it will be more effective when facing top defenses, which has been the Achilles heel of the team in the past.
  6. TB12_laser designator

    TB12_laser designator Signed, benched, cut. PatsFans.com Supporter

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    +1 to that. Our dependency on Welker has hurt us in big games and made us predictable. The current crop of promising young WR's have the potential to bring variety to our attack and make us much more unpredictable than we have been in recent seasons. So while no one individual might equal the individual stats produced by Welker. Collectively as a unit, they could be much more lethal, especially in the big games.
  7. Rob0729

    Rob0729 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I said this in another thread. Christopher Price was on the radio the other day and he said none of the past rookie WR failures looked as good as Dobson has in training camp. Unlike rookie WRs of the past, Dobson seems to have immediately grasped the system and has been thriving immediately. Yes, I know Chad Jackson looked great in a minicamp right off the bat, but he didn't look nearly as good when he got to camp.

    Rookies are always a crapshoot what they will do when the season starts, but at least Dobson looks to escape the failures of past Patriots rookie WRs.
  8. KontradictioN

    KontradictioN Do you even lift? PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Can this season's offense be better than a top five all-time offense? Everything, and I mean everything, would have to fall exactly right for that to happen. Amendola would have to make up 3/4's of Welker's production, Sudfeld will have to do what he's done in TC against real NFL defenses, Gronk would have to be absolutely healthy from Week 1 on, and two of the three rookie WR's are going to have to get it and make immediate and hard impacts from Week 1 on. If all that happens (which is unlikely, given the complexity of the Erhardt-Perkins), this year's offense could theoretically be better than last year's.

    I'm not expecting that to happen. I'd be ecstatic if it does, but the likelihood is pretty low. Hopefully, though, one or two of the rookies is able to fully absorb the offense and get on the same page with Brady when it comes to the option routes on any given play and what he expects of them pre-snap. Give me that, health, and an effective ground game and the 2013 offense could be more multi-dimensional than any offense we've seen in New England since 2004.
  9. Nehalem

    Nehalem Rookie

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    I think so

    Amendola has the potential to be more dynamic than Welker

    Hernandez was injured last year and was not a major factor

    Lloyd, beyond the SF game was really nothing special.

    Vereen should be able to fill in for Woodhead, with more upside.

    So, if things break our way I can see it.
  10. PatsFan37

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    Last year at this time, with Brady, Welker, Gronk, the TE without a name, the Lloyd of our imagination (who was having a great camp), Vereen, Ridley, Bolden, and Woodhead, people were saying it would be better than the 2007 offense.

    This year we think Amendola and Edelman, Gronk after 5 surgeries, Dobson and Boyce and Thompkins and Sudfeld will be better than that.

    It's tough just to make the playoffs, though I think they will. More than anything, I want to see an offense that can stay on the field against playoff defenses. That's the only kind of 'better' I care about. Right now it's a little tough to project all these rookies marching down the field against the best the NFL can throw at them.

    Mostly, I think the defense will be better and that will give the offense time to grow.
  11. ivanvamp

    ivanvamp Rookie

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    I don't think we'll see this year's offense put up more points per game than last year's. I think the potential is there long-term for them to be really dynamic, but I think early on it will be a very real work in progress. And that will mean they'll probably struggle at times early in the season, and thus in order to equal last year's total output the second half of the year they'll have to score like 40 points a game....which I don't see happening.

    I think we need to be prepared to see a lot more Tom Brady interceptions - not necessarily because of Brady, but because these young receivers are going to make mistakes, and Brady will be throwing to the spots where the receivers should be but aren't. It will take time for that to get ironed out.

    But I think that as the playoffs come around, we'll see the following:

    (1) The defense will improve as the young guys really get going. This will mean better field position for the offense and maybe more direct scoring by the defense. It should also mean the Pats' offense gets the ball back more quickly as the D gets off the field in fewer plays.

    (2) The young receivers will start to get it, and we'll see improved chemistry between them and Brady. Fewer mistakes and turnovers.

    (3) The offense will be more ready to handle any situation against top defenses, which bodes well come playoff time.

    In other words, I think we could be in for a little bit of a bumpy ride along the way, but when it all shakes out, this team will be better positioned to succeed in the playoffs than they have been in recent years. Unfortunately, I think that bumpy ride could cost them some home field advantage, so they're likely to have to go win on the road in order to get to the Super Bowl.
  12. patsinthesnow

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    No. Come 'on people.

    2012 offense:

    34.8 points per game
    428 yards per game

    In order for that to happen, we would need:

    -Two of the 3 rookie WRs would need to breakout and have seasons comparable to T.Y Hilton and Justin Blackmon last year. (replaces Lloyd and Hernandez production)
    -Amendola would need to be healthy all 16 games. (replaces Welker production)
    -Gronk would have to come back sooner than later and play well. (Gronk production)
    -Sudfeld/Ballard emerge as a good #2 TE next to Gronk or Vereen/Washington emerge as a receiving threat. (replaces Woodhead production)

    Way too many ifs.
  13. Rob0729

    Rob0729 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I think expecting it to be as good right off the bat is crazy. I think if we look at it as if "can it be as good or better in December?", then I think it is a possibility. Is it a good possibility? You explained really well why it is a crapshoot.

    I don't think the final numbers of this offense are going to be like last year. This offense will start the regular season significantly worse than last year's offense. The good news is that it can still be one of the league's top offenses and have that kind of a drop off. What we can hope for is by the middle or end of the season, this offense really starts to gel and becomes as good or better than last year.
  14. Rob0729

    Rob0729 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    As I said in my last post, to expect the entire season numbers to be as good or better is too much to ask for. To hope this offense is as good or better than last year by the end of this season is not though.
  15. KontradictioN

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    I understand. The OP didn't exactly set any sort of boundaries in his first post, though, which is why I responded in the context of Week 1 on. Like I said, it's theoretically possible that this offense can be better than 2012's. It's also theoretically possible that this could be the worst offense we've fielded since the early 2000's. It all depends on how the new guys adapt.
  16. Mack Herron

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    This is a solid point. With so many new receivers it will be a different offense than last year, and will take time to find its identity. Bound to be some growing pains. Apart from winning the division, does anyone really care about regular season stats? I expect them to be much better when they are playing in January when it matters.

    patriots - Not so fast: With new faces, Patriots may slow offense in 2013 - WEEI | Christopher Price
  17. tonyto3690

    tonyto3690 Banned

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    There's a better chance Sanchez throws for 40 TDs than our offense this year being better than a top 3 offense of all time.
  18. Nunchucks

    Nunchucks Rookie

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    None of the past "rookie" WRs have gotten so many reps with the first team offense in TC as the rookie WRs this year.
  19. Sicilian

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    This question has a few layers that make it hard for me to answer. First and foremost, last year's offense had it's share of injuries too. Welker and Lloyd were there, but Gronk and Hernandez were both injured for portions and rarely played together. That team still led the league in scoring and moved the ball well in the AFCCG, stalling in the red zone.

    This year? We're counting on a lot of unknowns. It's like rolling a bunch of dice and wondering if they CAN come up all 5's and 6's. Sure, but what are the odds? And I think it's unreasonable to ask if this crop of players can outperform the #1 offense in the league last year.

    The real question is, can this group, with all it's potential and all it's questions, get close enough to last year's offense that an expected boost in defensive play and special teams adds up to a better TEAM than last year. I think they absolutely can do that, yes.
  20. Oswlek

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    Can it happen? Sure, anything is possible. Will it happen? Probably not. But it will be whole lot better than the doom and gloomers would have you think.

    The funny thing is, when you type it up that way, it actually sounds more reasonable, not less. :rocker:
  21. pdangle

    pdangle Rookie

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    Seems like if we're talking simply matching points per game, one must account for a leaguewide scoring trend which keeps going up and up with rule changes and team adaptations.

    So just by this "scoring inflation", Pats probably start with a few touchdowns in the "bank" making it a bit easier to reach last year's milestone if one was so inclined to handicap such a thing.

    Now if they are truly "better" than last years team if they do so, just as if 2012 is truly the 4th "best" offense of all time, is debatable. IMO, It's really all about relative scoring differential or sigma compared to your peers.
  22. PatsFan2

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    I think it could be more dynamic than last years group why.

    1) Armendola is Faster and have a Greater Catch Radius Than Welker.

    2) If Dobson or Thomkins are as advertised as Guys who can work the short - itermediate and deeps parts of the field. We have already replaced down on bended knees Brandon Lloyd.:rolleyes:

    3) I have a feeling Josh Boyce is going to give Edelman a run for the slot position on 3rd downs.

    I think we are going to have a very Fast Offense in 2013 similar to the Greatest show on turf.
  23. KontradictioN

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    I wouldn't make sense for Dobson to line up in the slot. He's a natural flanker. If anyone is going to give Edelman or Amendola (depending on whether or not he lines up at split-end) a run in the slot, it's going to be Boyce. His skill set is a much more natural fit for the slot in this offense.
  24. Rob0729

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    I assume you mean Boyce and not Dobson. I doubt Dobson will be in the slot on 3rd downs.
  25. VrabelJr

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    If Gronk, Amendola, Vereen and Ridley are healthy the entire season, yes. OLine health will be important, too.
  26. Deus Irae

    Deus Irae PatsFans.com Retired Jersey Club PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Can it? Sure. There are 32 offenses in this year's NFL that 'could' be better than the Patriots offense from last year.

    Will it? Not without a whole lot of luck, overachievement, etc....

    On the positive side, having Brady at QB should be good enough to pencil the offense in at top 5 almost regardless of what weapons he's given. The issue will probably end up being the same as it has since 2008: health going into the playoffs. We'll just have to add "ability of the skill players" to the question, which is where things will differ from most years post-2006.
  27. patfanken

    patfanken Rookie

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    Talk about unrealistic expectations. How can you expect this offense compare to last season's offense. That's a near impossible task, especially given that as of now they don't have 90% of their receiving production on the field. Even if they had EVERYBODY back, they would be hard pressed to match last season's production both in points AND yards.

    Here's what I'm hoping -

    1. The OL will truly DOMINATE - Solder should entering his prime, Mankins will be healthier, Wendell should improve on his already surprisingly effective first year as a starter, I have great hopes for Cannon at RG, and a healthier Volmer should round out an OL with unlimited potential. Don't forget that when Gronk comes back, the Pats will add the premier run blocking TE in the league.

    Its not being talked about much and there are some depth issues, but this is potentially an OL that is good enough to carry an offense early in the season that is trying to replace virtually their entire receiving corps in one year with mostly rookies

    2. I don't want to see Danny Amendola match Welker's stats. If he is, that would mean we are concentrating on him too much, and falling into the same comfort zone that we had with Welker. The offense needs to be more balanced and the ball has to be spread more evenly among the receivers. I really don't want to see any our our receivers "leading the league" in any categories, but I want them all to be in the top 30

    3. This pass offense is going to be different. Because all of our receivers have been historically small quick, and NOT physical, separation was a requirement to getting the ball. Now that we have added some true size and physicality to the receiver corps a whole new set of patterns are now available to Josh that he didn't have before.

    4. Early on the Pats could very well become the "ground and pound" Patriots. It not only makes sense in order to bring along the new receivers slowly, but because we have the skill sets and talent to do it. We really do have 3 RB's who all have the potential to be 1000 yd rushers. Plus I have always been a Leon Washington fan. He was my favorite/feared Jet back in the day.

    5. Because of these realities, I expect Tom Brady NOT to be as good a choice for Fantasy Football; as in recent years. Yet by season's end, I expect this offense to be much more "playoff ready", when Gronk's injuries turned it into a one trick pony. especially around the GL

    6. As a fan base, we should all get used to media reports of the coming Pats demise. But instead of railing against it, we should embrace it. I have longed to be the underdog again for a while now.. We should also prepare for stat geeks to talk about Brady's diminishing stat line as a sign he is slowing down, when nothing further can be the truth.

    Key stats for Brady watchers will be his TD/pick ratio, yds/completion, and completion percentage, NOT total yards. I fully expect his completion percentage to go down and his yds/completion to go up, as I believe that Brady will be throwing the ball deeper down the field more often this season. And not just bombs, but more intermediate passes as well.

    BOTTOM LINE: any offense will be hard pressed to be better than last year's edition. I'd rather think that THIS offense can be just as effective in the end. Time of possession will improve and field position will become more of a factor, and the urgency to score every possession will lessen as the defense becomes a more equal partner. Better? I don't know. Different? For sure.
  28. MoneyFX

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    I don't think the offense will put up the same numbers as last season.

    But, if Brady has good chemistry with the new targets, the offense can be more varied and actually tougher to stop than in recent years.

    The WR group has lots of unknowns. But they actually have the ability to go downfield and make plays with speed, size and physicality. The Patriots have not had that in a long time and it hurt the offense, in the playoffs against the Jets/Ravens/Giants.

    In contrast to that, losing Welker, Hernandez and Woodhead really hurts in terms of moving the chains and getting YAC. But the Patriots still have guys who could do that in Amendola, Edelman and Vereen.

    The offense has the potential to threaten all parts of the football field. Unlike 2010, 2011 and 2012.

    Just like Nunchucks said, this offense could be tougher for the top defenses to stop. I just don't think they will put up the same numbers. Maybe the passing yards are down, but Brady is still very efficient and the rushing yards go up. It doesn't matter if the offense isn't as productive as last year, it just matters if the offense is productive when it counts, in January.
  29. AndyJohnson

    AndyJohnson PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I think it is incorrect to look at this as what replaces what.
    First of all, better is very subjective. Overall in terms of points score, the 2012 offense was incredible, but it still had flaws, some of which led to losses. Scoring 17 points more than needed in a win is not more important tham eliminating the flaw that caused one of your losses.
    The offense will be different and it will be good. It will be better in some ways and worse in others.
    I expect better OL play because it is likely Mankins and Vollmer will be more healthy, and Connolly, Solder and Wendell are still at the stage where they should be improving with experience.
    The running game should be better. Ridley is gaining experience which is important for a RB1 and Vereen is an upgrade to Woodhead.

    The passing game is the mystery. But that doesn't necessarily mean bad. Last year we had 1/2 a Gronk. We had a mostly hobbled Murderer who many fans complained about drops and doing little with his catches in Dec and Jan.
    You cannot really consider the 2012 offense the dynamic matchup nightmare 2 TE system. We already adapted to not having that to get the 2012 results.
    Lloyd is a known commodity, but one most fans thought was worthless. I don't happen to agree with that, but I have little doubt that the role that evolves at his position will not detract from the offense. (ie if we continue to throw there as much we will get as much production and if we do not, we will get as much of more elsewhere).
    The real change is no longer being a passing game that revolves around Wes Welker. When you look at what Welker produced, by definition that would seem to be a step backward.
    However, this is Tom Brady at the trigger. I have no doubt of a few things:
    -If you get open Brady will find you
    -You have to be less open to succeed with Brady than with any other QB
    -Our offensive scheme is excellent at creating matchups that get receivers open by play design not extraordinary individual ablity.

    We will get receivers open. Brady will find them. We will be an excellent passing offense.
    The questions to 'better than last year' and by 'better' I always mean result not perception are:
    -Will the new WRs struggle in the sight read system, which could slow down the development of the offense
    -Will the new scheme be as effective as the Welker-centric one
    <and by the way, Welker-centric doesn't mean the number of targets, it means that the passing scheme was design first around Welkers strengths, and the play designs were either to get Welker open, or to use Welker to create room for someone else>
    -Other than raw number of points will the move to what appears to be a much more athletically talented, and dynamic WR corps make the offense situationally better.
    Top 5 or not, we lost 3 times at home, and were as close as it gets to losing 2 more (Jets and Bills) and each of those games were at least partially due to offensive underperfomance either overall or at critical junctures.
    We could score less points (we had 5 games that we won by 28+ points and another we won by 21) but be a better offense, resulting in more wins, and a longer season, ending much more happily.
  30. ivanvamp

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    I like the idea of them pounding the ball with the running game. But I still like the up-tempo pace. No reason why they can't run the ball a lot while running the fast-break style of offense.

    I think it could especially be effective if you have both Ridley and Vereen in at the same time. You can alternate which backs get the ball (to reduce the wear on either), but Vereen especially gives you great versatility in the passing game.

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