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Caldwell vs. Givens


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All things being equal - which means salary - I would still rather have Givens here than Caldwell if I had a choice. I'd be really surprised if a lot of fans would pick Caldwell over Givens if their contracts were identical, though you're certainly entitled to your opinion about that.
Sure, I would. But it's not a significant drop off to me. Branch to whatever, now that's a killer. Givens to Caldwell (forgetting money) is small potatoes.
 
Sorry - beg to differ... though I think a lot of this winds up being individual interpretation of things like whether Caldwell is as good a route runner than Givens... Caldwell REALLY struggled with this early in the season. I was worried that he was going to be another Tony Simmons - good speed, can't run routes - but obviously and happilly Caldwell has shown an ability to improve on his route running.


This is really a bit of an unfair comparison. In Given's first 2 seasons with the Patriots, he played in 24 games and caught 43 passes. Caldwell's played in 11 games, has caught 38 passes, and has had to adjust to the New England passing attack which requires a double adjustment (one by the QB and one by the receiver) while also adjusting to the wide receiver merry-go-round. That's not easy, as Mr. Hayes found out a couple years back, for example.
 
I think you've got this exactly backwards. Caldwell has consistently gotten open while playing the #1 WR position, while Givens had the advantage of playing with Branch. When Branch was out, and Givens was the #1, he struggled. What we don't know is how good Caldwell would be playing alongside Branch. He would certainly benefit.

To my eyes, Caldwell is faster, quicker, and a better route runner than Givens, indeed he's an obviously superior football athlete. Givens is stronger, probably a better blocker, and has better concentration. They're both clutch (Caldwell has a ton of catches for firstdowns) The real advantage Givens had over Caldwell, superior production, has disappeared this year now that Caldwell is producing and Givens isn't. And Caldwell is still improving in his first year with Brady in the Patriots system.

In my opinion, Caldwell for Givens is a considerable upgrade. Unfortunately, with Caldwell as the #1, we're looking at Caldwell for Branch, which is still a downgrade.

Kasmir absolutely KNOCKS IT OUT OF THE PARK. I can't believe how many people here forget how frustrated we would get when Givens didn't step up in Branch's absence. When Givens was THE guy, a player we needed, who was thrust into the role of #1 option for Brady, and didn't do what Caldwell has been starting to do.

I liked Givens A LOT. I'm thrilled he got a much deserved (if overvalued) payday. The guy worked hard, was a great teammate, improved himself, blocked well, everything you asked of him. But he never proved to be talented enough to be THE guy. Caldwell isn't a stud or anything, but 11 games in he's doing a very solid job - DESPITE the fact that the entire passing game and offense has been in flux.
 
All things being equal - which means salary - I would still rather have Givens here than Caldwell if I had a choice. I'd be really surprised if a lot of fans would pick Caldwell over Givens if their contracts were identical, though you're certainly entitled to your opinion about that.

I think, then, that you're about to be really surprised - over and over again. Caldwell has seemed a more versatile and athletic version of Givens. Faster, too. I guess Givens is a better blocker. It doesn't always go this way, I admit it, but it sure looks like Caldwell's preferable pedigree/draft position has merit.
 
Sorry - beg to differ... though I think a lot of this winds up being individual interpretation of things like whether Caldwell is as good a route runner than Givens... Caldwell REALLY struggled with this early in the season. I was worried that he was going to be another Tony Simmons - good speed, can't run routes - but obviously and happilly Caldwell has shown an ability to improve on his route running.

Who said Caldwell struggled with routes? How do you know he struggled with routes? Did you talk to BB directly?

Sorry, but from what I saw, it wasn't the routes he struggled with, but the timing with Brady. I say this because he was regularly getting open for 1st downs when Brady did hit him with passes.

As to the matter of Givens struggling in 2004 when Branch was limited to 9 games - I just fail to see how Givens catching 56 passes averaging 15.6 yards per catch over 15 games is "struggling" compared to Caldwell's projected 55 catches this year at 12.2 yards per catch.

If anything you have to give Givens the edge, since Caldwell's been the defacto #1 all season and Givens was the #2 for 9 games, Givens still reacked up better than Caldwell's projected stats, even though Caldwell is likely getting more opportunities to make catches as our #1 WR.

You keep saying that Caldwell's been the defacto #1 all season as if its some fact. Its not. Its just your opinion. I think its safer to say that Brown started the season as the #1 receiver.
Givens did have 2 games while Branch was out only catching 1 pass - but beyond that he was good for 2 games of 4, 3 games of 5 & even one 8 pass catching game. Seems to me that for the majority of games Givens stepped up and helped the team admirably rather than faltering.

Yet, he only had 3 games where he topped 100 yards and the rest, he couldn't eclipse 66. Help me understand how that makes him a good #1 receiver.

So I'm not quite sure I see the logic of saying that Givens should be expected to have more passes caught as a #2 WR than Caldwell should as a #1 WR.


All things being equal - which means salary - I would still rather have Givens here than Caldwell if I had a choice. I'd be really surprised if a lot of fans would pick Caldwell over Givens if their contracts were identical, though you're certainly entitled to your opinion about that.

I think if everyone had a choice, they would have preferred to have branch and Givens on this team this season. However, it wasn't our choice. The players chose to go elsewhere.

As I said in another post, its more likely that Given's play while Branch was out was the anomoly than it proving him to be an "ELITE" #2 receiver. BTW, Givens can't hold the jock of #2's like Isaac Bruce, Anquan Boldin, or Reggie Wayne. Those are ELITE #2's imho. Imho, an ELITE #2 is a receiver who would be a #1 on another team.
 
Who said Caldwell struggled with routes? How do you know he struggled with routes? Did you talk to BB directly?

Sorry, but from what I saw, it wasn't the routes he struggled with, but the timing with Brady. I say this because he was regularly getting open for 1st downs when Brady did hit him with passes.

No - I didn't talk to BB - did you?

So yes, what I saw in the first 7 games or so definately looked like poor route running. I saw quite a few times with Reche turning one way to catch a ball that was thrown to the opposite side.... balls that appeared underthrown, balls that appeared overthrown.

Were all of these Brady's fault? Doubtful. Seeing what I saw, if I had to guess whether Brady was throwing the ball to the wrong place or whether Caldwell was in the wrong place - I'm thinking it was often Caldwell's route running.

You keep saying that Caldwell's been the defacto #1 all season as if its some fact. Its not. Its just your opinion. I think its safer to say that Brown started the season as the #1 receiver.

I love Troy Brown but he's a third down back no matter how you cut it. A #1 WR is a guy who is most often going "wide" - Troy's per catch average is usually 8 or 9 yards. I look for 14 or 15 yards from my wide receivers.

Semantics I guess - RBs often catch 4 or 5 passes a game too so I guess some might look at them as #1 WRs - but I don't.

Troy, in any event has 30 passes to date and is on track for about 44. I'm pretty happy with that production from my third down WR - I'm pretty disapointed in that if Troy is our #1 WR.

So if Troy's not our #1 WR and Caldwell isn't and Gabriel isn't and Jackson isn't and Gaffney isn't, exactly who is our defacto #1 WR in your opinion?

Yet, he only had 3 games where he topped 100 yards and the rest, he couldn't eclipse 66. Help me understand how that makes him a good #1 receiver.

Who said Givens was a #1 WR? I just said he did a better job than Caldwell did when he was forced to assume a #1 WR role - comparable in catches to Caldwell, but much better in yards per catch that year.

Since you brought it up, and seem to know that Givens had 3 games where he topped 100 yards, care to wager a guess how many 100 yard games Caldwell has?

Yeah - that's right. None.

Do you know how many games Caldwell "couldn't eclipse 66 yards?" Eight out of 11 games.

So this makes him better than Givens in 2004 exactly how?

I think if everyone had a choice, they would have preferred to have branch and Givens on this team this season. However, it wasn't our choice. The players chose to go elsewhere.


That of course wasn't the question.

Whether Branch was here, or not here this season - if Givens and Caldwell both had identical contracts would you choose Givens or Caldwell.

As of today I'd still take Givens over Caldwell everytime for the same money/same contract.

I think most every GM in the NFL would take Givens over Caldwell all things being equal, and I think even today - recognizing that Caldwell is playing better than most of us ever hoped - most fans would still take Givens over Caldwell (assuming Givens is healthy).
 
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No - I didn't talk to BB - did you?

So yes, what I saw in the first 7 games or so definately looked like poor route running. I saw quite a few times with Reche turning one way to catch a ball that was thrown to the opposite side.... balls that appeared underthrown, balls that appeared overthrown.

Were all of these Brady's fault? Doubtful. Seeing what I saw, if I had to guess whether Brady was throwing the ball to the wrong place or whether Caldwell was in the wrong place - I'm thinking it was often Caldwell's route running.

I think you're talking about timing and acclimation, not route running ability and skills. While there are admittedly a lot of factors affecting good route running, the basic skills are ability to make fast, sharp cuts to get separation, ability to sell a fake, etc. To my eyes, Caldwell is better than Givens in this regard. If my memory servers, Givens caught a lot of balls in traffic, and was effective at it. Caldwell is often wide open, and often gets good YAC out of it. He makes a lot of first downs, which is a sign of excellent route running.

I love Troy Brown but he's a third down back no matter how you cut it. A #1 WR is a guy who is most often going "wide" - Troy's per catch average is usually 8 or 9 yards. I look for 14 or 15 yards from my wide receivers.

Semantics I guess - RBs often catch 4 or 5 passes a game too so I guess some might look at them as #1 WRs - but I don't.

Troy, in any event has 30 passes to date and is on track for about 44. I'm pretty happy with that production from my third down WR - I'm pretty disapointed in that if Troy is our #1 WR.

So if Troy's not our #1 WR and Caldwell isn't and Gabriel isn't and Jackson isn't and Gaffney isn't, exactly who is our defacto #1 WR in your opinion?

I think you're still missing my point about #1 vs #2. You're focussing on just the positional differences and statistical production, while I'm looking at the competitive factor. If you're the best receiver on the field, while the QB will look for you first, you're going to attract the best coverage, or even double coverage, which will adversely affect your ability to get open. Conversely, a #2 receiver benefits considerably from playing with a strong #1, because the #1 draws attention from the secondary. Especially with a QB like Brady who is great at looking for the open receiver, this helps the production of a #2, which in turn relieves pressure on the #1. Givens had the benefit of playing alongside Branch (and vice versa) during his productive years here. Caldwell hasn't had that benefit, yet he's now very effective and even putting up decent numbers. This is very encouraging, and I have to believe he would be even more effective playing alongside Branch.

Who said Givens was a #1 WR? I just said he did a better job than Caldwell did when he was forced to assume a #1 WR role - comparable in catches to Caldwell, but much better in yards per catch that year.

Since you brought it up, and seem to know that Givens had 3 games where he topped 100 yards, care to wager a guess how many 100 yard games Caldwell has?

Yeah - that's right. None.

Do you know how many games Caldwell "couldn't eclipse 66 yards?" Eight out of 11 games.

So this makes him better than Givens in 2004 exactly how?

I'd like to see an actual breakdown of Givens' play with and without Branch, especially using a competitive adjusting system like Football Outsiders DPAR.

In 2004, Givens was in his third year in this system. Caldwell hasn't even finished his first. Belichick cares about projected future performance, not past performance, which is why he always talks about player's improvement and room for improvement. Everyone, even Caldwell bashers, admit that he's improving, so the question now is how he projects out vs Givens when he's fully up to speed. I like what I see.

Whether Branch was here, or not here this season - if Givens and Caldwell both had identical contracts would you choose Givens or Caldwell.

As of today I'd still take Givens over Caldwell every time for the same money/same contract.

I think most every GM in the NFL would take Givens over Caldwell all things being equal, and I think even today - recognizing that Caldwell is playing better than most of us ever hoped - most fans would still take Givens over Caldwell (assuming Givens is healthy).

I think the answer to this question is very much in doubt. Right now, projecting Caldwell's performance, and based what I see on the field, I'd prefer him to Givens going forward even on an even cost basis. Not by a lot, but my eyes tell me he's easily going to be at least as good of a receiver in this system as Givens was.

Of course in this past offseason the calculus was different. No question that price being equal, I would have kept Givens, or signed Caldwell and started Givens over him, as Givens was up to speed and demonstrably productive in the system. And Caldwell was a big risk based on his past history.

But of course it was Givens unreasonable contract demands -- and I wonder if even the Titan's GM would now disagree with that assessment -- led to them bringing Caldwell in, and Branch's (I assume) unexpected departure ended up making Caldwell our defacto #1. I think we can all agree that no one wanted to start the season with Caldwell as our #1.

That said, having now seen the guy for 11 regular season and 4 pre-season games, and having watched a legion of unproductive free-agent and drafted wr's fail here the past few years, I'm frankly amazed that people are still on his case. He's been a tremendous acquisition for this team -- and he's still improving.
 
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That said, having now seen the guy for 11 regular season and 4 pre-season games, and having watched a legion of unproductive free-agent and drafted wr's fail here the past few years, I'm frankly amazed that people are still on his case. He's been a tremendous acquisition for this team -- and he's still improving.

Great post. Give it up Joe.

R
 
No - I didn't talk to BB - did you?

Nope. And you are so adament is trying to defend your slippery slope of a point you missed where I said I think.

So yes, what I saw in the first 7 games or so definately looked like poor route running. I saw quite a few times with Reche turning one way to catch a ball that was thrown to the opposite side.... balls that appeared underthrown, balls that appeared overthrown.

Were all of these Brady's fault? Doubtful. Seeing what I saw, if I had to guess whether Brady was throwing the ball to the wrong place or whether Caldwell was in the wrong place - I'm thinking it was often Caldwell's route running.

Some were Caldwell, but many were Brady. Many commeneted long and hard about how Brady was having problems. Only those with their eyes closed defended Brady as if he was a saint who could do no wrong.

I love Troy Brown but he's a third down back no matter how you cut it. A #1 WR is a guy who is most often going "wide" - Troy's per catch average is usually 8 or 9 yards. I look for 14 or 15 yards from my wide receivers.

Over Troy's career, he's averaged 11.5 yard per catch. Many damn good players haven't averaged 14-15 yards per catch over their career. 14-15 yards per catch puts you in the ELITE category when you do it on a regular basis. Heck, Marvin Harrison only averages 13.5 YPC.

The last Patriots WR to average more than 14 YPC for more than a season was David Patten. And the Patriots cut him even though he averaged over 18 YPC in his last season with the team.
Oh, Bethel averaged more than 18 YPC, do you want him back as well?

Semantics I guess - RBs often catch 4 or 5 passes a game too so I guess some might look at them as #1 WRs - but I don't.

A RB catching 4-5 passes a game on a consistent basis is not the norm. Otherwise, they'd be leading the team in receptions.


Troy, in any event has 30 passes to date and is on track for about 44. I'm pretty happy with that production from my third down WR - I'm pretty disapointed in that if Troy is our #1 WR.

So if Troy's not our #1 WR and Caldwell isn't and Gabriel isn't and Jackson isn't and Gaffney isn't, exactly who is our defacto #1 WR in your opinion?

JSP, you seem to have glossed over my said that Troy started the season as the Pats #1 receiver. I did not, in any way, shape, or form say that he still was. Personally, I think this whole numbering of receivers is silly. As I mentioned earlier and you glossed over, like many of the actual points of my argument, Belichick doesn't seem to believe that the Patriots have a true #1 receiver. As he said, Brady doesn't throw to any one particular receiver. He throws to the guy who is open.

Who said Givens was a #1 WR? I just said he did a better job than Caldwell did when he was forced to assume a #1 WR role - comparable in catches to Caldwell, but much better in yards per catch that year.

Since you brought it up, and seem to know that Givens had 3 games where he topped 100 yards, care to wager a guess how many 100 yard games Caldwell has?

Yeah - that's right. None.

So, Caldwell doesn't have a 100 yard game. That doesn't mean he's been worse than Givens. One of the things you've over-looked is that this is NOT the same offense that was being run in 2004. In 2004, the TE was not a primary weapon in the Pats offense after Ashworth went down to injury. The Pats rarely used the 2 TE set except on the goal line situations and even then they usually had Vrabel out there with Graham because they needed Graham to help Gorin block.

One of the things that I look at is that in 2004, Givens only caugh 52.8% of the passes thrown to him. Granted, he only had 1 drop in 2004. But, when I look at Caldwell, I see he's catching 60.3% of the balls thrown to him.

In the current Pats offense, no one receiver is getting that many snaps or that many passes thrown to him. In fact, there is a good chance that the Patriots will have 4 receivers with more than 50 receptions. The last time the Patriots had more than 2 receivers with 50+ receptions back in 2000 when Drewpy was quarterback.

That lends itself more to the idea that they feel confident going to a variety of receivers and keeping the opposing defense guessing than going to any particular individual. Maybe they decided that based on the personnel. But it sure as heck makes it a LOT harder to defend against.


Do you know how many games Caldwell "couldn't eclipse 66 yards?" Eight out of 11 games.

So this makes him better than Givens in 2004 exactly how?

Hmm.. Lets see. Givens, for all his production, only managed 3 TDs in 2004. On 56 passes. On 3 100 yard games. Last I looked, Caldwell has 3 TDs on 38 passes. He should end up with 4 or 5 TDs by the end of the season. Which will be more than Givens has put up since his rookie season.


That of course wasn't the question.

Whether Branch was here, or not here this season - if Givens and Caldwell both had identical contracts would you choose Givens or Caldwell.

As of today I'd still take Givens over Caldwell everytime for the same money/same contract.

Good for you. Unfortunately for you, that's not reality. That is fantasy. Givens wasn't signed for cheap money the way Caldwell was. Givens is a 4.8 million a year WR who, honestly, was made by the QB throwing to him. Just like Patten was.

I think most every GM in the NFL would take Givens over Caldwell all things being equal, and I think even today - recognizing that Caldwell is playing better than most of us ever hoped - most fans would still take Givens over Caldwell (assuming Givens is healthy).

If the choice was 4.8 million for the production that Givens put up last year vs. 1 million for what Caldwell is putting up this year, I think you'd have a 50-50 split.

Caldwell is honestly playing like I figured he would. He gets open. He makes catches. Nothing spectacular, but solid. I said from the day we signed him that he was a good signing to replace Givens. I still feel that way now.
 
I think you're talking about timing and acclimation, not route running ability and skills. While there are admittedly a lot of factors affecting good route running, the basic skills are ability to make fast, sharp cuts to get separation, ability to sell a fake, etc. To my eyes, Caldwell is better than Givens in this regard. If my memory servers, Givens caught a lot of balls in traffic, and was effective at it. Caldwell is often wide open, and often gets good YAC out of it. He makes a lot of first downs, which is a sign of excellent route running.

All those aspects are certainly factors of good route running.

As is being where the ball is intended to be thrown. Something Caldwell very much seemed to struggle with early on in the season. He's doing much better now - I hope he keeps it up.

His yards per catch however are much lower than Givens were in 2004 when Givens had to serve as the defacto #1. So if lower yardage = the better receiver, I guess you're right, Caldwell is better.

I think you're still missing my point about #1 vs #2. You're focussing on just the positional differences and statistical production, while I'm looking at the competitive factor. If you're the best receiver on the field, while the QB will look for you first, you're going to attract the best coverage, or even double coverage, which will adversely affect your ability to get open. Conversely, a #2 receiver benefits considerably from playing with a strong #1, because the #1 draws attention from the secondary. Especially with a QB like Brady who is great at looking for the open receiver, this helps the production of a #2, which in turn relieves pressure on the #1. Givens had the benefit of playing alongside Branch (and vice versa) during his productive years here. Caldwell hasn't had that benefit, yet he's now very effective and even putting up decent numbers. This is very encouraging, and I have to believe he would be even more effective playing alongside Branch.

No doubt the #1 WR attracts the better coverage - which is why I've been looking to 2004 to compare Caldwell & Givens when both were garnishing top coverage.

However the fact that the better CB is covering is a bit of a red herring. The #1 WR is still generally getting more passes thrown to them than the #2, #3, #4 WR.

And indeed, the #1 WR usually winds up having better numbers than the #2 WR in part because of that - that's part of why they ARE a #1 WR.


I'd like to see an actual breakdown of Givens' play with and without Branch, especially using a competitive adjusting system like Football Outsiders DPAR.

The stats are out there for you to review.

I've mentioned quite a few - including the fact that when DaBruinz asserted that Caldwell was better than Givens in 2004 because Givens only had three 100 yard games, he seemed to overlook the fact that Caldwell has had none. Stats don't seem to mean much to people who have made up their mind no matter what.

I'm truly glad that Caldwell is so much better than I had predicted. But again, its my opinion - and I'd be willing to bet the opinion of others, including a good number of NFL GMs who aren't all necessarilly as biased towards the Patriots as we are - that given the same contract for a healthy Givens and a healthy Caldwell, they'd take a healthy Givens every time.
 
If the choice was 4.8 million for the production that Givens put up last year vs. 1 million for what Caldwell is putting up this year, I think you'd have a 50-50 split.

Thank you! You pretty much made my point. We're simply talking about proven performance - comparing Givens to Caldwell - not who has the more cost-effective salary.

So if it'd be a 50/50 split of GMs for Givens getting 5 TIMES as much money as Caldwell, what do you think the split would be if their contracts were the same?

Obviously, you effectively admit most GMs would go for Givens.

And that's my point - based on football performance and overall talent alone - most unbiased observers like other GMs would probably go for Givens.

I know you're going to come back and say "but that's fantasy!"

But of course, to use a Red Sox analogy, just because David Ortiz might have a lower salary than someone like JD Drew doesn't mean Drew's a better player does it?

Nor does the fact that Caldwell's salary is lower than Givens mean that Caldwell's a better player because of it.
 
All those aspects are certainly factors of good route running.

As is being where the ball is intended to be thrown. Something Caldwell very much seemed to struggle with early on in the season. He's doing much better now - I hope he keeps it up.

Out of curiosity, how do you know that Caldwell wasn't where he was supposed to be. The TIMING is as much of an issue for the QB as it is for a receiver. If Caldwell gets through a route in 3.2 second that Branch would get through in 3 seconds, and Brady throws it when he is normally expecting Branch to be in the spot, how is that Caldwell's fault? Its not. Its Brady because he's got to throw the ball to where Caldwell is supposed to be at the 3 second mark. Not where Branch or Givens were.

His yards per catch however are much lower than Givens were in 2004 when Givens had to serve as the defacto #1. So if lower yardage = the better receiver, I guess you're right, Caldwell is better.

Different routes. Different offense. Those wouldn't have ANYTHING to do with those stats, right?

OH, and, btw, why don't you go back and really look at 2004. After Branch went down, Givens did NOT average 15 YPC. During the 7 games that Branch was out, Givens averaged 12.8 YPC. NOT 15.6. Givens had 32 receptions for 410 yards. And his 3 TDs. Pretty similar stats to what Caldwell has right now. Granted, its over the course of 11 games for Caldwell. But as other have said, Caldwell has been learning the offense while Givens was in his 3rd year.

No doubt the #1 WR attracts the better coverage - which is why I've been looking to 2004 to compare Caldwell & Givens when both were garnishing top coverage.

Except that Givens wasn't garnering top coverage the entire year. He only had 7 games where he was the top receiver.

However the fact that the better CB is covering is a bit of a red herring. The #1 WR is still generally getting more passes thrown to them than the #2, #3, #4 WR.

And indeed, the #1 WR usually winds up having better numbers than the #2 WR in part because of that - that's part of why they ARE a #1 WR.

The stats are out there for you to review.

Yes, they are out ther for you to reveiw. Just make sure you actually review them and don't cherry pick them.

I've mentioned quite a few - including the fact that when DaBruinz asserted that Caldwell was better than Givens in 2004 because Givens only had three 100 yard games, he seemed to overlook the fact that Caldwell has had none. Stats don't seem to mean much to people who have made up their mind no matter what.

JSP - I suggest you don't make assumptions about what others are thinking. When you do, all you are doing is showing that you aren't reading what is being said.

And, you are right. Stats don't mean much to people who've made up their mind. That is why its ironic that you say it when the stats don't truly support you. But, you just glossed over that because it suited your argument.

I'm truly glad that Caldwell is so much better than I had predicted. But again, its my opinion - and I'd be willing to bet the opinion of others, including a good number of NFL GMs who aren't all necessarilly as biased towards the Patriots as we are - that given the same contract for a healthy Givens and a healthy Caldwell, they'd take a healthy Givens every time.

You, like everyone else, are entitled to your opinion, no matter how flawed that opinion might be. And yes, I have had flawed opinions and, when proven wrong, admitted to it.
 
Thank you! You pretty much made my point. We're simply talking about proven performance - comparing Givens to Caldwell - not who has the more cost-effective salary.

So if it'd be a 50/50 split of GMs for Givens getting 5 TIMES as much money as Caldwell, what do you think the split would be if their contracts were the same?

But the contracts aren't the same. And that is what you are missing. No matter how you cut it, the contracts aren't the same.

Obviously, you effectively admit most GMs would go for Givens.

Obviously, you just want to see things that just aren't there. Otherwise, you wouldn't be going off on these ridiculous tangents.

And that's my point - based on football performance and overall talent alone - most unbiased observers like other GMs would probably go for Givens.

I know you're going to come back and say "but that's fantasy!"

But of course, to use a Red Sox analogy, just because David Ortiz might have a lower salary than someone like JD Drew doesn't mean Drew's a better player does it?

Nor does the fact that Caldwell's salary is lower than Givens mean that Caldwell's a better player because of it.

Sorry, JSP, it doesn't prove your point. 50/50 is NOT most GMs as you claimed.

Also, I suggest you re-read what you just wrote because you just contradicted yourself or used a very poor analogy. To make your analogy work, you'd have to compare JD Drew to Trot Nixon, not David Ortiz. But, trying to compare a baseball player to a football player is, well, just silly. Skill sets are almost entirely different.

OH, btw, can you show me where I said that Caldwell was the better player strictly because his salary is lower than Givens? Or is it just where you decided to read more into it than what was said just so you could try and prove some ficticious point?
 
Yes - you are right. I am not entitled to an opinion. Well done!

Sure you're entitled to an opinion. But these guys have flayed apart your premise with some great analysis and a boatload of facts. Now you're just demagoguing. You're not persuading anyone.

I thought coming in to this thread that Caldwell as a Givens replacement was roughly an equal trade talent-wise - and that the salary difference cinched it as a good move by BB/SP.

DaBruinz and Kasmir have convinced me that he's really better than Givens right now - and has more upside to boot.

Relax - the Patriots are not the RedSox.

R
 
To quote a line from the movie "Shawshank Redemption" -

"Are you guys obtuse?"

DaBruinz - I didn't say 50% of GMs would still pick Givens over a Caldwell with a contract 5-7 times as high as Caldwell even today - YOU did.

That's 50%, in your opinion, picking based on football talent, performance, upside - and a MUCH higher salary. (and by the way, you're just not going to convince me that Caldwell was running his routes well and Brady was the problem early on in the season - Caldwell was running crappy routes - anyone could see it, including most importantly Brady)

We're only talking about football performance, talent etc. - You completely missed the point about Ortiz. Salary doesn't equate talent. Givens is not better or worse a football player than Caldwell simply because his salary is higher. Nor is Caldwell a better player than Givens because his salary is lower. What is it about this you don't understand?

Do you actually think FEWER GMs would pick Givens if his salary were the same as Caldwell? So all things being equal - if the majority of unbiased NFL GMs would pick Givens over Caldwell if their salaries are the same what do you think this means about their opinion of David Givens compared to Reche Caldwell in terms of football skills/talent/performance?

Let me try to illustrate this with another analogy:

Do you think Tom Brady is the best QB in the game? (Let's assume "yes")

Would 50% of the GMs take a pass on him if his salary were $50million a year? - At least that many - maybe all.

Does that mean that Brady is not the best QB in the game because his salary is prohibitive? - of course not.

So, if Givens and Caldwell both had $1 million salaries, Do you or Don't you think that more GMs would pick Givens over Caldwell?

njpatsfan - same question to you. If Caldwell and Givens have the same contract, who do you pick?


Why are you both trying to twist my opinion to think I'm asserting Caldwell isn't a better value than Givens? I'm not. I'd never sign Givens for that amount. But the truth is Caldwell's route running DID suck early on in the sesaon. Let's hope he's turned the corner, because we need him.

But if I'm honest and unbiased like most GMs would be, and simply comparing Caldwell and Givens as football players - upside and all (and of course, within that one must factor Caldwell's history as well) I'm taking Givens every time.

I'm just baffled that you guys would look at Givens stats over time and Caldwell's stats over time and declare him the better football player than Givens - that you'd compare their injury history, performance, 100 yard games (or the lack thereof) to this date in time, and based on 3 games in which Caldwell has gone over 70 yards this season, and pronounce him the better football player. And you suggest that I'M the one cherrypicking stats?
 
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(and by the way, you're just not going to convince me that Caldwell was running his routes well and Brady was the problem early on in the season - Caldwell was running crappy routes - anyone could see it, including most importantly Brady)
Your bias against Caldwell is well illustrated by this point. Despite that bias, perhaps you might concede that Caldwell and Brady were still learning to play together early in the season? That it was a matter of Caldwell learning the offense in game conditions and he and Brady getting the timing down? If that was the case, characterizing the problem as Caldwell being a crappy route runner is absurd -- especially since you seem to concede the problem is now mitigated.

What WR in recent Patriot's history hast come up to speed as fast in the Patriot's system as Caldwell? Certainly not Givens. Not Jackson. Not Gabriel. Indeed, as far as I can recall, only Branch produced his much in his first year here. And we've had a parade of free agents and rookies both accomplish next to nothing compared to what Caldwell has done so far.

You obviously despise Caldwell -- you're not even bothering with faint praise. You obviously love Givens -- your "elite #2" oxymoron illustrates that. Does dumping on Caldwell somehow justify your anger with the Patriots for letting Givens go? Sorry, that's what it appears to me.

I tire of this argument, so I'll concede to you the last word.
 
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(and by the way, you're just not going to convince me that Caldwell was running his routes well and Brady was the problem early on in the season - Caldwell was running crappy routes - anyone could see it, including most importantly Brady)
The problem with that argument is you're comparing him to Givens. Compare him to Branch and I'm with you. Go back and watch games the past few years, look at passes that Brady threw where there was a mixup between him and the intended receiver then look at who was in the area.

Or don't bother because I'll tell you. Watson and Givens. Almost all the time. Watson has been getting better, last year was his first season actually playing. Givens ? He may have run good routes when he read the defense right but he was high on the bad route list.

That's why Caldwell (in his first year with the team) has a Catch% (Football Outsiders numbers) equal to Givens last year in his 4th year with the team. And both had Catch% a full 10% over Givens in 2004. In fact Givens' career high Catch% with the Patriots was 62%, Caldwell's is 60% in his first year. His routes can't be that bad.
 
Your bias against Caldwell is well illustrated by this point.

I tire of this argument, so I'll concede to you the last word.


Let's give Brady the last word.

The story about Caldwell in today's Herald confirms that Caldwell was running incorrect routes and that Brady personally had to show him exactly where he wanted Caldwell to be by running the routes for him to demonstrate.

The story also correctly indicates that Caldwell is improving - and is the defacto #1 WR - a point that some won't concede for some reason.

And of course DaBruinz, in pointing out that Givens "only" had 3 games with more than 100 yards as a #1 WR in 2004 continues to overlook the point that Caldwell has had only 1 100 yard game in his entire career.

I'm hopeful Caldwell can continue to perform at the level he has for the last 4 games.

But if people want to convince themselves that 4 good games for Caldwell make him a better football player than 4 years for Givens, I think they are kidding themselves.

Note how everyone wants to ignore the question of whether they'd take Givens over Caldwell for even money.

I do give DaBruinz credit for admitting that even at 5x the salary of Caldwell 50% of the GMs would take Givens - though he doesn't seem to think any more would take Givens at a salary comparable to Caldwell for some reason.
 
To quote a line from the movie "Shawshank Redemption" -

"Are you guys obtuse?"[/b]

I find it perfectly appropriate that you have MISQUOTED Shawshank here. "How can you be so obtuse?" is the line. And Givens was rarely effective as a #1. And 50/50 doesn't mean "most." Ever.
 
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TRANSCRIPT: Eliot Wolf’s Pre-Draft Press Conference 4/18/24
Thursday Patriots Notebook 4/18: News and Notes
Wednesday Patriots Notebook 4/17: News and Notes
Tuesday Patriots Notebook 4/16: News and Notes
Monday Patriots Notebook 4/15: News and Notes
Patriots News 4-14, Mock Draft 3.0, Gilmore, Law Rally For Bill 
Potential Patriot: Boston Globe’s Price Talks to Georgia WR McConkey
Friday Patriots Notebook 4/12: News and Notes
Not a First Round Pick? Hoge Doubles Down on Maye
Thursday Patriots Notebook 4/11: News and Notes
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