Caldwell vs. Givens

[SeanBruschi54]

Givens routes weren't exactly his strong suit. He and Watson were usually the intended receivers when Brady threw one way and the receiver went another.

From Football Outsiders :

2004, Givens' Catch% (% of balls caught that were thrown to him, non catch includes bad throw) was 53%.
2005, Givens' Catch% was 61%.
2006, Caldwell's Catch% is 60%.

Caldwell is also more productive per catch, 10.7% above league average vs. Givens' 5.5% last year (Football Outsiders DVOA number).

Really the only argument for Givens is that he got open more (which I don't believe to be true) and that he's done it in the playoffs.

Very good number finds my friend.
I have been a strong believer in signing Caldwell since the end of last season and was blasted on many sites for it.

Just like i went to TC and said Ryan O Callaghan would start at RT. Point for me

And i also said Jackson was ready to go by week 2. OUCH point for the board.

But Caldwell is a better overall player than Givens. Givens used his physical attributes to his advantage.

 

[frankiesfly]

caldwell at best no. 3 reciever, and no matter how hard some of you try to believe that we didnt need branch...well we do, we still need a number one reciever....gabriel has done crap.

 

[Sean Pa Patriot]

caldwell at best no. 3 reciever, and no matter how hard some of you try to believe that we didnt need branch...well we do, we still need a number one reciever....gabriel has done crap.

No doubt, that is priority number 1 in the offseason along with LB and DB.. Caldwell proves the point, Brady makes these guys better..

 

[BelichickFan]

And i also said Jackson was ready to go by week 2. OUCH point for the board..

Actually, Week 2 was his best game so far . . . it was after Week 2 that things went downhill

 

[njpatsfan]

You make it sound as if the WR corps we have on the field right now was part of a master plan!

First of all Caldwell deserves a pat on the back, even with his early season drops, looking over his shoulder, missed route running miscues. He's been getting better and is our defacto #1 WR - NOT what the front office had planned for him by a longshot, but I'm glad we have him.

For that reason its difficult to compare Caldwell and Givens statistically. If we had a season where Givens was the defacto #1 and he was getting all the balls thrown to him that Caldwell is, that might be a different matter.

Beyond that, the team went into this season without adequately addressing WR even BEFORE the Deion Branch episode - indeed, having Branch hold out and be traded was NOT part of the pre-season plan.

Everyone understands this so let's not kid ourselves that this season is going as planned in the least. Leave it to the Patriots to make a silk purse from a sow's ear, covering up their weaknesses and making the most with what little they have, but WR is NOT a position of strength right now.

If it were, Watson would be open more often, and to a higher degree, picking up more yards after the catch. I'm glad Caldwell and Watson are stretching the field as much as they are - I'd call it adequate at best though - and an improved WR game would have a positive impact for TEs and RBs in the passing game, and would also open up the running game more.

So let's give the team and the front office some credit - but let's not insult ourselves by thinking this is all part of a master plan when everyone knows its not.

As kptmorgan pointed out, the whole premise of your sarcastic post is blown up by the fact that this discussion was happening - IN MARCH. Before the "he who shall not be named" decided to screw the Pats and us fans over.

This is the classic "let me post my opinion without bothering to read the thread" post. Waaaaay too common on this board. Even NEM reads the posts on the thread before posting (not that it helps in his case).

Your other premises make no sense either. Replacing Givens with Caldwell and drafting a WR high isn't addressing the position ? For the temporally challenged, the mini-camp injury to Jackson happened AFTER March. Would you rather pay $6M a year for Givens ?

Avoiding the semantics arguments that surround the term "#1 receiver", as well as the obvious fallacy that the Pats ever have anything like a "true #1", your argument that Givens would do much better this year holds no water either. It is obvious that the closest thing to a "#1" this year is Ben Watson, who will put up much bigger numbers this year than the Twig ever did (and perhaps will ever do). Givens had plenty of quality "#1" time over the last few years during the perennial Twig injuries and the injuries to our TEs last year. If anything, your argument actually supports the opposite premise - that Caldwell is doing better in a more competitive situation.

I love when someone digs up these old threads, as the blow hard/Red Sox whiner type fans, no matter how they come down on an issue, always come out looking stupid. Perhaps if we did this more, more people would actually read and think about the issues in the thread before posting.

R

 

[Kdo5]

I don't know what you see save for measureables. Caldwell is awful and has been a bust. He will be a role player at best. He did not have a slouch at QB last year so the Brady factor is a wash. Its not like he came from Baltimore or the Jets.

You sound like one of the jerks after he dropped a pass against the Falcons in preseason and everyone crapped on the guy. He was injured for a good amount of time in two of his seasons in the league with the Chargers. He wasnt even that bad with the Chargers however the Chargers have so many damn weapons, behind LT, Gates, McCardell and Parker(who all seemed to be more of Brees' preferred recievers...you'll hardly get noticed. Plus Gates and LT are superstars and LT does more than run...
Though yes he did have his big problems. Fumbling was one of them. Injuries also.
And actually Brady is a huge factor in his production.

 

[Hamtown]

Reche is a good addition thats for sure. One thing he has that Givens doesnt is......HUGE EYEBALLS! LOL Seriously he is a really great addition, but man 'o' man those eyes are definately OPEN!

 

[SeanBruschi54]

Reche is a good addition thats for sure. One thing he has that Givens doesnt is......HUGE EYEBALLS! LOL Seriously he is a really great addition, but man 'o' man those eyes are definately OPEN!

The best part about that pic is his eyes are so wide open that he doesnt even need to look at the ball anymore.

 

[The Gr8est]

No doubt, that is priority number 1 in the offseason along with LB and DB.. Caldwell proves the point, Brady makes these guys better..

Actually there IS doubt that WR is priority #1, it is actually priority about 4-5 behind CB, S, and LB. If we draft no WRs next draft our offense will be just fine. The WRs we DO have will have more experience with Brady and with our running game and TEs, WR is not much of a priority. Defense wins, and we are reaching the point where our ability to be a perrenial playoff team is in doubt if we don't add youth, speed, and health to our back eight.

If Branch was suddenly willing to came back to the Pats and honor his contract at the cost of returning Seattle's #1, I would say "No thanks!" and not even hesitate about it.

 

[Don Calhoun]

I don't know what you see save for measureables. Caldwell is awful and has been a bust. He will be a role player at best. He did not have a slouch at QB last year so the Brady factor is a wash. Its not like he came from Baltimore or the Jets.

WHAT? Have you watched the last 6 weeks?! I agree he is not quite to Givens' level, but he is anything but a bust! He has made some big catches for us this year, especially on 3rd down. Right now, he is our #1 wide out. Watson is our #1 receiver, but Caldwell is the most dependable wide out we have right now, albeit a bit by default, with Jackson slow to progress and Gabriel in the doghouse.

 

[JoeSixPat]

As kptmorgan pointed out, the whole premise of your sarcastic post is blown up by the fact that this discussion was happening - IN MARCH. Before the "he who shall not be named" decided to screw the Pats and us fans over.

This is the classic "let me post my opinion without bothering to read the thread" post. Waaaaay too common on this board. Even NEM reads the posts on the thread before posting (not that it helps in his case).

Your other premises make no sense either. Replacing Givens with Caldwell and drafting a WR high isn't addressing the position ? For the temporally challenged, the mini-camp injury to Jackson happened AFTER March. Would you rather pay $6M a year for Givens ?

Avoiding the semantics arguments that surround the term "#1 receiver", as well as the obvious fallacy that the Pats ever have anything like a "true #1", your argument that Givens would do much better this year holds no water either. It is obvious that the closest thing to a "#1" this year is Ben Watson, who will put up much bigger numbers this year than the Twig ever did (and perhaps will ever do). Givens had plenty of quality "#1" time over the last few years during the perennial Twig injuries and the injuries to our TEs last year. If anything, your argument actually supports the opposite premise - that Caldwell is doing better in a more competitive situation.

I love when someone digs up these old threads, as the blow hard/Red Sox whiner type fans, no matter how they come down on an issue, always come out looking stupid. Perhaps if we did this more, more people would actually read and think about the issues in the thread before posting.

R

Of course, as what's apparently now termed a "veteran" member I can tell you that it's just a tad bit rare that a 9 month old thread is posted on the first page.

So excuuuusee me for not being quite as perceptive as you and noting the exact date and time of every thread... I'd be willing to be that most people also probaby would think 1st page threads are somewhat new.

My hat's also off to you in reading every post in a 6 page thread or more before forumlating your own opnion.

I think its perfectly fine to read the first post of a thread, posing a question and offering one's own response. If someone has made a similar response before, so be it.

I hope you can live with that because many of us don't always have time to read 6 pages of posts before offering our $.02.

Beyond that, I stand by my comments. The receiving corps we have today is not part of a master front office plan. It's making the best of a bad situation - and furthermore, as one of the lone "Draft Chad Jackson" proponents here pre-draft (if you have time, see how many folks jumped on that bandwagon after it left) I've always said that placing expections on rookie WRs is just wrong and foolhardy.

So that left the WR corps, even before Branch's trade - relying on Branch, an aging Brown, and a bunch of guys who really had no proven positive track record - including Caldwell.

Who around here has disagreed with not paying Given's ransom? No one I think so hopefully one doesn't have to make such an assertion to support their own contentions that the front office proved themselves geniuses by crafting this WR lineup.

Nor has anyone said - or could say - that Givens would have done better or worse than Caldwell. The point I made was simply that Caldwell has become the #1 WR option - thanks in part to the lack of other WRs - and that Givens had never been the #1 WR option - so its difficult if not impossible to compare them given the different roles.

If we're not talking about salary and just comparing the players, I'd pick Givens every time over Caldwell - and I suspect most others would as well, regardless of statistics showing percentages of catches made in 2004, 2005.

None of those stats do that much for me - heck I could go back and give you stats from Troy Brown in 2002, 2003 and assert that he's a #1 WR - but we all know he's not.

By the way - I love it when people try to assert that our TE is the #1 WR - it just shows a lack of understanding about football. The fact that a RB catches passes makes him no more an WR than a TE catching passes. But what can't be denied is having stronger deep threats at WR help open the field to give the TEs and RBs both more room to do more with all their plays - runs or passes - and I continue to lament that WR remains a weak point for this team.

 

[shmessy]

If we're not talking about salary and just comparing the players, I'd pick Givens every time over Caldwell - and I suspect most others would as well, regardless of statistics showing percentages of catches made in 2004, 2005.

Question: How's the comparison in the only year where it counts - - 2006?

Games Played: 11-8

Receptions: 38-8

Yards: 462-104

Avg: 12.2-13.0

TD's: 3-0

I'm a nice guy, so I won't even mention the differences in salary cap hits.

 

[Kasmir]

Nor has anyone said - or could say - that Givens would have done better or worse than Caldwell. The point I made was simply that Caldwell has become the #1 WR option - thanks in part to the lack of other WRs - and that Givens had never been the #1 WR option - so its difficult if not impossible to compare them given the different roles.

If we're not talking about salary and just comparing the players, I'd pick Givens every time over Caldwell - and I suspect most others would as well, regardless of statistics showing percentages of catches made in 2004, 2005.

I think you've got this exactly backwards. Caldwell has consistently gotten open while playing the #1 WR position, while Givens had the advantage of playing with Branch. When Branch was out, and Givens was the #1, he struggled. What we don't know is how good Caldwell would be playing alongside Branch. He would certainly benefit.

To my eyes, Caldwell is faster, quicker, and a better route runner than Givens, indeed he's an obviously superior football athlete. Givens is stronger, probably a better blocker, and has better concentration. They're both clutch (Caldwell has a ton of catches for firstdowns) The real advantage Givens had over Caldwell, superior production, has disappeared this year now that Caldwell is producing and Givens isn't. And Caldwell is still improving in his first year with Brady in the Patriots system.

In my opinion, Caldwell for Givens is a considerable upgrade. Unfortunately, with Caldwell as the #1, we're looking at Caldwell for Branch, which is still a downgrade.

 

[pats1]

Get what fool? I will bet you a grand that caldwell is miserable this year. Put your month where your kool-aid drinking mouth is.

Now, doesn't revisiting 8-month old bets always fall in my favor?

 

[Krugman]

I beg to differ on Caldwell,dont think he's a bust....seems to be getting better all the time,and has made some good plays....

 

[PatsFan37]

I think you've got this exactly backwards. Caldwell has consistently gotten open while playing the #1 WR position, while Givens had the advantage of playing with Branch. When Branch was out, and Givens was the #1, he struggled. What we don't know is how good Caldwell would be playing alongside Branch. He would certainly benefit.

To my eyes, Caldwell is faster, quicker, and a better route runner than Givens, indeed he's an obviously superior football athlete. Givens is stronger, probably a better blocker, and has better concentration. They're both clutch (Caldwell has a ton of catches for firstdowns) The real advantage Givens had over Caldwell, superior production, has disappeared this year now that Caldwell is producing and Givens isn't. And Caldwell is still improving in his first year with Brady in the Patriots system.

In my opinion, Caldwell for Givens is a considerable upgrade. Unfortunately, with Caldwell as the #1, we're looking at Caldwell for Branch, which is still a downgrade.

Well said. I couldn't agree more, especially with your last point. The plan all along was Branch then Caldwell then Brown & Jackson. It still kills me to think what this team might have been (shoulda woulda coulda) if Branch had stayed.

But watching Caldwell juke defenders after the catch, seeing him get a first down on quick out, I see an ability to run that Givens never had. I recall Givens making a great catch and see a defender get up from the ground and run Givens down from behind. Givens was and is one tough blocking receiver, but like you say, he's neither fast nor quick.

 

[BelichickFan]

Well said. I couldn't agree more, especially with your last point. The plan all along was Branch then Caldwell then Brown & Jackson. It still kills me to think what this team might have been (shoulda woulda coulda) if Branch had stayed.

Right, and then the hope was a 2nd year Jackson and Caldwell would be fine next year if The Twig left. This was a fully reasonable game plan. Unfortunately the little sh!t boy screwed it all up, that's why I will always hate him. Givens had earned his Free Agency, Twig Boy hadn't.

 

[JoeSixPat]

I think you've got this exactly backwards. Caldwell has consistently gotten open while playing the #1 WR position, while Givens had the advantage of playing with Branch. When Branch was out, and Givens was the #1, he struggled. What we don't know is how good Caldwell would be playing alongside Branch. He would certainly benefit.

To my eyes, Caldwell is faster, quicker, and a better route runner than Givens, indeed he's an obviously superior football athlete. Givens is stronger, probably a better blocker, and has better concentration. They're both clutch (Caldwell has a ton of catches for firstdowns) The real advantage Givens had over Caldwell, superior production, has disappeared this year now that Caldwell is producing and Givens isn't. And Caldwell is still improving in his first year with Brady in the Patriots system.

In my opinion, Caldwell for Givens is a considerable upgrade. Unfortunately, with Caldwell as the #1, we're looking at Caldwell for Branch, which is still a downgrade.

Sorry - beg to differ... though I think a lot of this winds up being individual interpretation of things like whether Caldwell is as good a route runner than Givens... Caldwell REALLY struggled with this early in the season. I was worried that he was going to be another Tony Simmons - good speed, can't run routes - but obviously and happilly Caldwell has shown an ability to improve on his route running.

As to the matter of Givens struggling in 2004 when Branch was limited to 9 games - I just fail to see how Givens catching 56 passes averaging 15.6 yards per catch over 15 games is "struggling" compared to Caldwell's projected 55 catches this year at 12.2 yards per catch.

If anything you have to give Givens the edge, since Caldwell's been the defacto #1 all season and Givens was the #2 for 9 games, Givens still reacked up better than Caldwell's projected stats, even though Caldwell is likely getting more opportunities to make catches as our #1 WR.

Givens did have 2 games while Branch was out only catching 1 pass - but beyond that he was good for 2 games of 4, 3 games of 5 & even one 8 pass catching game. Seems to me that for the majority of games Givens stepped up and helped the team admirably rather than faltering.

So I'm not quite sure I see the logic of saying that Givens should be expected to have more passes caught as a #2 WR than Caldwell should as a #1 WR.


All things being equal - which means salary - I would still rather have Givens here than Caldwell if I had a choice. I'd be really surprised if a lot of fans would pick Caldwell over Givens if their contracts were identical, though you're certainly entitled to your opinion about that.

 

[MDD]

All things being equal - which means salary - I would still rather have Givens here than Caldwell if I had a choice. I'd be really surprised if a lot of fans would pick Caldwell over Givens if their contracts were identical, though you're certainly entitled to your opinion about that

That's precisely it though - you need to factor in $$$ in the NFL.

Taking it a step further, if we take it year by year, factoring everything, including durability?

Year One - Caldwell is the clear winner.

Years 2 through ??? - insufficient data.

 

[PATRIOTS-80]

Givens catching 56 passes ... Caldwell's projected 55 catches this year....

Well I might as well as throw my opinion in -- but I think Given's success in the past and Caldwell's success this year has a lot to do with a certain # 12. Sure both WR's have talent -- but Brady makes hard working, talented WRs better.

The key is to find WRs with good work ethic -- Givens had good work ethic and so did Caldwell when he showed up at the Pats complex right away and worked with Brady every day.

If Caldwell matches Givens # and hits FA in '08, there will always be some team that will be willing to overpay to get a #2 wideout.