Bye-week daydreaming: 2012 cap space

[WinstonSmith]

Yes, I am looking ahead & should not be. But, that is my curse. I enjoy the now, but I always look ahead. When the draft ends in April, I start looking at the next year.

That being said, from what I can find online and estimating n app. $125 mill cap next year, the Pats could be nearly $45 million under the cap.

Does this mean another 2007 like jump into trades & free agency? A Mario Williams? A Brandon Lloyd ( with a McDaniels return), a FA safety? A trade for some established players?

In "War Room", the strategy is mentioned that outside players are rated as to if/how much better they are than what we already have. Therefore, areas of upgrade should include DE, OLB, CB, WR & S. perhaps a 1st & 3rd traded for Williams & a Burfict type is targeted in round 1 as well. Burict is a throwback type beast of a LB, and versatile, all BB qualities. Imagine the D with those 2.

Brady has app. 5 years left & the team is in position to load up for those years.

Can you share, in broad strokes, how you arrived at $45M?

 

[ctpatsfan77]

I wouldn't re-sign Koppen, not because he isn't good (he is), but because he'll likely command a lot of money, and the Pats have shown this year that, frankly, they don't need him. Spend the money elsewhere. Maybe draft a center in the middle rounds to groom, or pick up a cheap FA for that role, but right now they're fine there.

He'll be 33 coming off IR. He's not likely to "command a lot of money."

 

[IllegalContact]

They are good examples, the Patriots saw a need and spent money to bring in players they thought would work. The results weren't great (although they did win two Superbowls with Colvin).

I hate to add caveats to my posts but I will in this case. I love the draft, love everything about it but the history of the league indicates that draft picks are very high risk and don't pan out consistently. Even impact draft picks take several years to develop.

The defense is a mess, 3 or 4 rookies are not going to solve the issue. I would argue that a mid-high end vet would have more of an impact than any draft pick.

The offense is fine, draft a Center in the first few rounds and let Dante coach them up. WRs, my assumption is that Welker will be franchised, after that draft a WR in rounds 3 or 4 and bring in a few low end vets. I would love V Jax but would rather spend resources to address the defensive deficiencies.

colvin and thomas are poor examples.....both provided reasons why you should not spend big money.......seems as though FA signings / vet trades are just as iffy......how did duane starks work out? FA signings are just as random.....look at this past year. carter was a good signing as was anderson......anyone else? haynesworth? ellis? the defense has gone backwards with plenty of new vet bodies, also. if there was one body to bring in on defense, it would be a top FA safety......that's it....there are no OLB's whtat will make a difference.

draft WR's? talk about a waste of time. it appears that brady don't want to work with no damned rookies

at C, the pats can bring back koppen as long as they bring back connoly, too......between them, we are pretty well set for another year. draft a C in day 3

 

[LloydBraun]

New England Patriots Salary Cap 2012

I used the site above. I failed to account for Welker & any dead money, with a total combined for both being app. $20 mill according to the site linked.

 

[satz]

V Jax has dropys and also never come across as smart dude. i wonder if spending all that money to get someone who cannot play in our system is worth it. With chargers all he does is run a most simple game plan.

resign wes and draft a high WR and mid level guy and work with both.

 

[Sciz]

Another thing to note for next year is that there aren't many cuts to clear up cap room. The one cut that would save a lot of cap room is Light. If they cut him, they save a whopping $5M on the cap. A lot probably depends on Vollmer's health, though. Cutting Wright would (will) save just under $2.5M. Cutting Ochocinco (I'm still not sold on this) would save $1.5M. Cutting Barrett saves $1M, and nobody else (outside of Waters, who isn't getting cut) saves more than $1M.

 

[cstjohn17]

colvin and thomas are poor examples.....both provided reasons why you should not spend big money.......seems as though FA signings / vet trades are just as iffy.....

I guess beauty is in the eye of the beholder, we disagree.

Colvin was moderately productive and slowed by injuries. Still he did more in his time than any rookie LB. Thomas was very good in year 1 and then lost his mojo. Still better production than most draft picks would provide.

I think my point was that relying on 3 or 4 draft picks to come in and improve the defense is not a sound approach. 2 of the 4 are likely to have no impact at all, the other 2 will take several years to develop.

A mix is required, some free agents and some draft picks. I would rather spend the money on a defensive impact player than a WR. But that is me, to each their own.

 

[Rob0729]

New England Patriots Salary Cap 2012

I used the site above. I failed to account for Welker & any dead money, with a total combined for both being app. $20 mill according to the site linked.

There are a few players who could be cut to save money. Josh Barrett would save $1 million. Mike Wright may be forced into retirement and save $2.5 million. OchoCinco will be gone at a $1.5 million savings. Light could be cut if the Pats think Solder is ready because his $8 million cap hit vs. $5 million reduction if cut may be too high to keep.

The Pats could free up about $10 million in cap relatively easy if they wanted to.

It could be worse, based on the Jets Miguel's numbers, the Jets are $123 million against the cap with a lot of holes and, other than Wayne Hunter and Eric Smith, no guys they can cut with significant cap savings to lower the cap. In fact, two players at least rumored or speculated to be cut (Pace and Scott) will actually increase the cap if cut because the Jets had to guarantee their 2012 salaries to get them to restructure their contracts last year to get under the cap (because the cap is crap).

 

[ctpatsfan77]

There are a few players who could be cut to save money. Josh Barrett would save $1 million. Mike Wright may be forced into retirement and save $2.5 million. OchoCinco will be gone at a $1.5 million savings. Light could be cut if the Pats think Solder is ready because his $8 million cap hit vs. $5 million reduction if cut may be too high to keep.

The Pats could free up about $10 million in cap relatively easy if they wanted to.

It could be worse, based on the Jets Miguel's numbers, the Jets are $123 million against the cap with a lot of holes and, other than Wayne Hunter and Eric Smith, no guys they can cut with significant cap savings to lower the cap. In fact, two players at least rumored or speculated to be cut (Pace and Scott) will actually increase the cap if cut because the Jets had to guarantee their 2012 salaries to get them to restructure their contracts last year to get under the cap (because the cap is crap).

Even better: consider our favorite JEST WR, Santonio Holmes.

He is guaranteed $7.5M against skill and injury for 2012. So, even if they cut him, they're still on the hook for those $$$.

Even better, though, if Holmes is on the roster on the second day of the 2012 league year, he's guaranteed $7.5M against skill and injury in 2013.

 

[Rob0729]

Even better: consider our favorite JEST WR, Santonio Holmes.

He is guaranteed $7.5M against skill and injury for 2012. So, even if they cut him, they're still on the hook for those $$$.

Even better, though, if Holmes is on the roster on the second day of the 2012 league year, he's guaranteed $7.5M against skill and injury in 2013.

Their Holmes situation is one of the biggest disasters I have seen. I don't see how they can bring him back and I can't see how they cut or trade him either. After the crap he pulled this year and the Jets dire need to get rid of poor character guys and replace them with leaders, I don't know how the Jets could not cut Holmes (plus it is ridiculous to reward him with another $7.5 million guaranteed by keeping him). But if they cut him, they will end up paying him $15 million for one underperforming season where he was a divisive element in the locker room. His $7.5 million of his cap number would still stand

I think Belichick would have no problem cutting him if he didn't think he was salvagable because he has made similiar cuts to admit his mistake (although he has never blundered this big), but he has a lot more job security than either Tannebaum or Ryan right now.

It is funny that the Jets fans laughed at the Pats' trading for Ochocinco and Haynesworth. Yes, both those trades were failures, but they were low risk failures. The Holmes contract is a huge risk failure.

 

[borg]

Need to identify a cap strapped team in a rebuilding mode hungry for draft picks that has disgruntled defensive stars that want out....then start offering 2nd rounders

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Folks also have to remember that we only have 43 players signed for 2012 according to JETSCAP Miguel (cute name for him...but I'd rather have Patscap Miguel back...).

We have quite a few re-signings or or tenders or replacements to account for and most of them won't be cheap (well over a million per guys and Welker likely tagged at $9.4M) and with the draft and injuries we will have 80 some odd players on the roster come camp and while only 51 of them count in the off season all 53 count thereafter and we always leave at least $5-7M for in season replacements and extensions. So $35M or so under the cap or even $45M counting some cuts or restructures isn't indicative of us having mad money to chase FA and fantasy trades with.

That said, the JETS are in deep doo doo, although cap doo doo is Tannenbaum's forte. He's a master of postponing the inevitible, as was Polian for a long time... But without a Manning on his roster I don't think Tanny is going to have quite the run old Bill did. If the JETS don't take the division in 2012, or worse yet miss the playoffs again, one or both of Tanny and Rex will be looking for another gig.

 

[Metaphors]

The defense is a mess, 3 or 4 rookies are not going to solve the issue. I would argue that a mid-high end vet would have more of an impact than any draft pick.

Both perspectives (defense = mess, vet short-term impact > rookie) are aligned with conventional wisdom, but I'm inclined to believe it is not that black-n-white.

"Defense is a mess"...The stats back this up but I have a hard time thinking this is fundamental. Outside of the Steeler game, the defense has either started well enough to allow the team to grab a good lead or stiffened up to allow the team to come back from an early deficit. If the defense was simply incompetent, good offenses (the Pats have played 5 top 10 passing offenses) would be able to consistently score across an entire game. That just hasn't happened.

Have to bear in mind that the Pats are missing 6 starters or top role players on defense (Carter, Pryor, Wright, Bodden, Dowling, Barrett) and played a number of games missing 2 others (Chung, Spikes). Obviously this defensive squad that you call a "mess" wasn't the plan in late August. So taking this improvised "mess" and projecting it as the "opening bid" for next year doesn't seem logical.

Instead of looking at what is missing, look at what is already in place. Assuming both Carter and Anderson are back (they seem to like NE and are unlikely to get big bucks elsewhere), here is what they have:

DBs
===
CB: McCourty, Dowling
S: Chung

BASE 3-4
=======
NT: Wilfork
DE: Deaderick
OLB: Ninkovich
ILB: Mayo, Spikes

BASE 4-3
=======
DT: Wilfork, Love
DE: Carter
OLB: Ninkovich, Mayo
ILB: Spikes

SUB
===
DT: Pryor
DE: Carter, Anderson
LB: Mayo

So what is missing or ripe for upgrade?
DBs: Another CB (Arrington) for Nickle and coverage S (Barrett)
BASE 3-4: DE (Warren, Ellis), OLB (Cunningham)
BASE 4-3: DE (don't want Anderson in base if avoidable)
SUB: Rush DT (have to cut back Wilfork's snaps), coverage LB (Fletcher)

"Vet has more of an impact"...So a coverage S (or CB if McCourty/Dowling transitioned there) is a primary, 3-down need. Not sure you will find much in FA so it will likely take a premium draft pick. The other needs are important roles but there are already system-ready vets on the roster for these roles. Not sure that investing in non-system-ready vets (even more talented ones) is necessarily the best answer.

Since these roles will have limited reps and responsibilities, they are good places to incorporate rookies. If you are primarily eating blockers or rushing the passer or covering TE/RB routes, you can focus on just that during workouts/camps to be effective your rookie year. If a vet opportunity comes up and the price is right, by all means sign them up. But if FA isn't all that, getting 3-4 rookies in the draft to fill these roles can still pay major dividends right away. As always, just need to find the right guys. With 4 top 60 picks and a top-heavy draft, I'm confident this can happen.

 

[old 55]

I'd hesitate to re-sign Branch. I think he's pretty well done at this point.
Obviously, Pay Welker and then I think we'll look for a "value" type WR that may not be anyone's radar, but that can compliment Welker and our 2 TEs for less money than the "name" players like V Jackson.

I think Koppen won't command too much money because of the age & injury. I'd be surprised if he doesn't come back for another year or 2 while we groom another high draft pick at Center.

We clearly need some more studs on D and I think we'll look to bring in a Carter type and draft some impact players in the early rounds. I would expect Center, DE, Safety & CB to be addressed in early rounds of the draft and signing some vets for competition too.
I agree that Light may get pushed out or asked to re-do his contract if it looks like we're healthy on the OLine next summer and Matt isn't going to win the starting LT position.

 

[cstjohn17]

Both perspectives (defense = mess, vet short-term impact > rookie) are aligned with conventional wisdom, but I'm inclined to believe it is not that black-n-white.

I appreciate your response, and the detail in the post. You have put a lot of thought into it, nice work.

It is never black and white, but detailed analysis is difficult in a forum setting. There will be some combination of re-signings, free agent acquisitions and draft picks to bolster the roster.

I agree draft picks are best served as specialists / primary depth. When the Patriots were loaded with talent you could bring in players and allow them to perform specific roles \ learn the system, contribute more in year two and eventually take over as starters. That is the ideal situation, develop layers of depth with a graduated replacement program.

My perspective is that the defense does not have a base of strong performers at every position. In some positions the cupboard is base, or minimally stocked. Plugging in a draft pick to perform a starters role or to be a player of impact is not very likely. I would rather spend some of the cap room on veterans who can come in and start, maybe they aren't all pros but can at least be above average and then fill in the depth behind them with draft picks. Maybe Carter and Anderson are part of this process, maybe they leave.

Part of the original discussion was whether top dollars should be spent on a WR like Vincent Jackson, my opinion is that defense is more of a pressing need.

 

[BradyFTW!]

My understanding is that, under the new CBA, teams can simply roll cap space forward from one year to the next. Whereas before it took NLTBE incentives and the like, now it's apparently a pretty easy thing to do? If so, it wouldn't surprise me to see the Pats continually roll cap space forward into future years, just waiting for a player to become available who's too good to pass up.

 

[Metaphors]

My perspective is that the defense does not have a base of strong performers at every position. In some positions the cupboard is base, or minimally stocked.

No defense has a base of strong performers at every position. Not only is it difficult to pull off but the cap makes it practically impossible.

So at which positions is the cupboard bare? None that I can see. DL (Wilfork), LB (Mayo), CB (McCourty) and S (Chung) all have excellent core players.

Minimally stocked? If you assume Carter and Anderson are gone, then DL would qualify. LB and DB are missing a couple of coverage players but that isn't too bad.

So I see a defense with strong players up the middle and a good mix of veterans/youth around them. The key is keeping them healthy enough to stay on the field. They do have some pass rush and coverage holes, but they should have the assets this offseason to get those addressed. Won't be perfect, but should be more than enough to complement the offense and challenge for a title again.

Plugging in a draft pick to perform a starters role or to be a player of impact is not very likely.

1st round picks are expected to be starters. 2nd day picks are expected to be impact players right away. Even if the Pats hit 50% of their day 1/2 picks next year, that is 2-3 players that should see meaningful snaps right away.

I would rather spend some of the cap room on veterans who can come in and start, maybe they aren't all pros but can at least be above average and then fill in the depth behind them with draft picks.

Sounds like a fine plan. My point is that there are a lot of needy teams with anxious fanbases and loads of cap space. That means even average talent will be looking for long-term deals at inflated prices. The Pats did an amazing job sifting through FAs this year (Carter, Anderson, Waters, Ihedigbo) but counting on that again is no less a risk than high draft picks.

I guess it really depends on if you see this draft class as more like 2007 or 2010. I see this draft class as very strong inside the top 75-100 then completely worthless after that...which kinda fits the picks the Pats have in play.

So I see the Pats as being opportunity hunters in FA. Wait out the early, expensive rounds and see if anyone slips through. If that doesn't work out, they have enough draft assets to be an effective Plan B. The result should be enough cap space to sign Welker, Carter and Anderson plus start planning for the next wave of their own free agents (the downside of the Gronk legend).

 

[Ivan]

Mo's right that the amount won't be near 45 million when the re-signings are done but if that number was accurate for a starting point then they should have plenty of money to go after anyone they want, the question will be who that is and how much they will pay them. They need a deep threat that can work the sidelines but i don't see them spending for VJ and they can get that role filled with a pick or a less expensive free agent imo. defense has to be the priority and after re-signing Carter and Anderson they need to bring in help at every level of the defense. It is hard to say who will be available now but they need to be as aggressive on defense as they were on offense after the 2006 season.

 

[cstjohn17]

So I see a defense with strong players up the middle and a good mix of veterans/youth around them. The key is keeping them healthy enough to stay on the field. They do have some pass rush and coverage holes, but they should have the assets this offseason to get those addressed. Won't be perfect, but should be more than enough to complement the offense and challenge for a title again.

Your approach is pretty much exactly what the Patriots will do, and is exactly what I am afraid of.

We disagree on the existing talent base. Thats the way it goes, to each there own.

I see a defense with big holes at DE, CB, S and little depth at DT. LB is actually pretty passable although there are no difference makers just a bunch of solid players (I am fine with that, LB is ok).

Even with the holes they are a championship contender, improving the defense just makes they that much more likely to bring home the gold.

 

[Stilla]

Brady is the one player the offense is built around. Without Brady we have many good players, but it would be tough to claim that any of them could carry this team as well as Brady does.

The defense as it is currently structured is missing that key player. The one who influences how the defense is assembled and what kind of scheme it runs. Yeah, its not reasonable to claim that any one positions on defense is as influential as the QB when it comes to winning games, but in that same breath if any one of those positions had player worth building around, the defense as a whole would improve greatly.

Every position on the defense has the capacity to disrupt a QB's/ RB's timing. One great player on defense will achieve more opportunities to disrupt that timing. Finding that player is like finding a franchise QB.