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Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by JoeSixPat, Aug 20, 2006.

  1. JoeSixPat

    JoeSixPat Rookie

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    http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/5862990

    scroll down


    and down



    and down


    Past Buffalo (#1!) and the Fins (#2) and the Browns, and the Redskins, and the Cardinals

    Patriots come in at #27 courtesy of Football Outsiders

    Of course it seems to me they're just counting our ST play out because there's a lot of new personnel - new kicker, kick returner probably etc..

    Special Teams should be taken very seriously - as BB often says its 1/3rd of the game - but basically these guys are a blank page right now

    Let's hope they prove these guys wrong.
  2. Box_O_Rocks

    Box_O_Rocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    We must have been top 10 last season to have fallen so precipitously with our new Kicker and Returner...:eek:
  3. Slagathor

    Slagathor Rookie

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    #22 Jersey

    When you have to punt a lot, field lots of kickoffs and settle for numerous field goals......your ST production gets greatly inflated.

    Hence the top 5 you see above.
  4. I'm Ron Borges?

    I'm Ron Borges? Rookie

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    I'm not sure why people are shocked by this. The Patriots finished 16th in the NFL in punt returns and 15th in kickoff returns last year. There's a chance they will have a rookie kick returner and a rookie kicker this season. Why should they be ranked high? Because they're the Patriots? I wouldn't expect the Patriots to be ranked high in any special teams breakdown until the younger guys they may be counting on prove themselves and they improve on a subpar return game.
  5. RI Pats Fan

    RI Pats Fan Rookie

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    I can't help but agree with a low ranking. There was nothing remarkable about our special teams and it's one of the few times that we didn't really have anything stand out. Josh Miller was the only bright spot really. That's saying something after all those years of guys who made so many plays on that unit.

    Brown shouldn't have been returning punts really. Bethel fell off the face of the earth after being sort of like a secret weapon. Also, as much as I like the guy, Faulk didn't do much on that unit unlike other years where he would've made at least 2 or 3 great plays a year on that alone.
  6. Welker83

    Welker83 Rookie

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    Wow...thats flawed.


    If that was true then the teams that punted the most would be in the top eleven ...San fran, philly, chicago, tampa, miami, washington, baltimore, detroit, oakland, jax, and dallas... but only 3 of these eleven are rated as such... Hmmm...sounds like he's evaluating personel!

    With your same reasoning the 9 teams that punted the least in 2006 should be the lowest rated. Colts, bengals, chiefs, steelers, greenbay, buffalo, San diego, new orleans and denver...

    But only 2 of them are in the bottom 9...Hmmm still sounds like he's evaluating personel...

    Lets go to kick returns..teaks w/ most KR's in 2006 were Houston, san fran, oakland, arizona, green bay, buffalo, new orleans, st. louis, and detroit...

    And the number of them in the top 9 of these rankings are: 3. I'm still not seeing a correlation here...

    Lets try one more... Punt return att...
    Top 9 teams in punt return att were: jax, Tampa, arizona, giants, pitt, chicago, and New orleans.

    Number of these teams in the top 9 of these rankings: 4


    In each stat category we have shown less than a 50% correlation. Now instead of just trying to say another team gets more att therfore they are better i am prepared to state the following: "Good ST's are made of Good ST players"...kind of rolls off the tongue.

    SO...Why are the patriots ranked so low?
    1.In 2006 NE allowed 21.9 yards per kick return good for 19th in the league.

    2. In 2006 NE allowed 9.6 yards per punt return good for 27th in the league.

    So the stats show that the patriots have a below average ST's Coverage.

    3. Rookie kicker- Rookies are rookies. I'm not saying he'll be bad, but he is an unknown quantity...

    4. Excellent punter- Miller is one of the best in the league. 4th in the lague in gross avg(45.1 yds). 10th in the league Net punting (39.8)

    5. Kick returns. NE was slightly better than average 15th in the league w/ a 22.2 yd avg. New rookie is an unknown.

    6. Punt returns- Slightly below average. 16th in the league with a 7.9 yd average. New guy is an unknown.

    So if we sum it all up in ST's play NE was in the top ten in only one category (punting)...But was in the below average in kick coverage(19th) and bad in punt coverage (27th)... Add in a rookie kicker, and new returners and you get a FAIR ranking of 27th in the league in ST's to open the season.


    FURTHMORE: Statistical science shows that stats are more accurate with more results. This is because smallers collections of results are easily influenced by extreme outliars...Therefore teams with more attempts generally will have more accurate stats that show their ability...

    Have a nice day!
    Last edited: Aug 21, 2006
  7. JoeSixPat

    JoeSixPat Rookie

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    Actually that wasn't the Top 5 - just teams rated higher than the Pats, but Buffalo and Miami were #1 & #2

    I recognize your point about bad teams punting more but I think the guys at Football Outsiders are usually pretty smart about not creating a flawed metric

    Here's the actual explanation for anyone interested http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamst2005.php

    What's more revealing is the fact that while there are often some bad teams at the top of the list, that's not always the case.

    In 2004 Philadelphia was #2 and I seem to recal they were the second best team that year.

    Likewise the Patriots are most often around the middle - 16 in 2004, 17 in 2003, 3 in 2002 (with NO & DET #1 &#2 which would tend to support your theory) and #6 in 2001 (a SB year - not supporting your theory)

    Generally the Pats have been ranked 12 - 17 most years

    So make of all that what you want - I want it to be Bulletin Board material to get them pumped up!
  8. Triumph

    Triumph Rookie

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    #32 Jersey

    The NE special teams never ran a K or punt back for a TD all season. Futhermore, return teams gave up huge gains all season. They deserve the low ranking.

    R Borges will never be fired from Globe. Being provoactive sells newspapers.
  9. RoughingthePasser

    RoughingthePasser Rookie

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    Rankings?
    We haven't even played yet!

    Rankings should be determined mid season.
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 3, 2005
  10. JoeSixPat

    JoeSixPat Rookie

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    That, I would hope, is the reaction of the ST players in the locker room.

    Regardless the Patriots come in at #12 based on 2005 stats - and then there seems to be a VERY subjective assessment of where they are this year, dropping them back to 27
  11. RI Pats Fan

    RI Pats Fan Rookie

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    Yes, because that always works. Just ask Brady about Marty Schott's comments and how that really turned the season around.. yea...
  12. Welker83

    Welker83 Rookie

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    Did you even read my post? Coverage teams were bad, Both returners were nothing special, you lost your kicker.... all teams have problems even the freaking patriots.
  13. AzPatsFan

    AzPatsFan Rookie

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    Nem,

    You are basically right. But AV had a very good conversion avg in the low 80% range. Now a lot of that came from kicking a lot of relatively easy FG and not a lot of 50+ yarders.

    He was also the best football player as a kicker I ever remember. He would and did actually tackle the returner, at least in his early years.


    But your right that he was fading in distance as he reached his mid-thirties.

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