Building the next dynasty: one fan's misguided plan

[PonyExpress]

The Pats are obviously at a crossroads. Opinions are like @$$holes, as they say: everyone's got one. Here are a few ideas on how to revamp the team this offseason for 2007 while laying a solid foundation for '08. I made some painful choices that I'm sure will offend some people, if any one really intends to waste valuable time reading this. But my intention is to be tough on the aging core of the team, and renovate it with young players as effectively as possible.

Key veteran acquisitions

Adalius Thomas: older than ideal, but will become the veteran leader of the OLBs as the team transitions away from Colvin and Vrabel over the next 2 years and refurbishes with young talent
L. Fletcher-Baker: solid pass coverage skills and ability to read pre-snap keys make Fletcher's height a non-issue. Becomes veteran leader of ILB unit over next 2 seasons as Bruschi journeys to the Elysian fields...
Asante Samuel (franchise tag): franchise him, and let him play to "get paid" again. Then trade him in 2008 for maximum return. Use the money on Ty Warren extension in '08 instead.
Mewelde Moore (RFA): a favorite of BB since the '04 draft, prototype 3rd down back to challenge Faulk, who again had durability issues which will likely increase.
Wes Welker: can do everything that the current version of Troy Brown can do, only he's younger and better right now, with upside as a slot receiver.
3rd TE, Visanthe Shiancoe-type: a TE that can capably fill out the roster and respond in a dual role if injury strikes (he's used to that playing behind Jeremy "China doll" Shockey). A more attractive prospect might be RFA Ben Utecht of the Colts who was an undrafted free agent, I believe. I am interested in how Polian handles that situation, and would be happy if the Pats turned the tables and stole a Colt for a change. IMO Utecht is a superior all around player to Dallas Clark.
Heath Evans: solid lunchpail guy every team needs in the locker room. Eats up the media to shield more touchy teammates. Says he will take less to stay.
Todd Sauerbrun: best leg in a Patriot uniform since Camarillo.
Tim Rattay: injury prone but a savvy backup who can win games with a good team. Pats have always been high on him, almost taking him over Brady in 2000.

Key veteran losses

Graham: Graham wants to be more than a lunchpail blocker, and another organization can offer him that. He flees for greener pastures and more receptions. Denver seems like a possibility, judging from last year's rumors.
Banta-Cain: I would prefer to keep Banta-Cain over Colvin. But Colvin still has a hefty cap hit. I would prefer a #1 draft pick at OLB to resigning TBC under these circumstances. A late 1st rd draft pick will likely be cheaper for more years at potentially better longterm impact.
T. Brown: Welker can do what the current Troy does, only better on ST and offense.
Dillon: Unless he takes a hefty pay cut and agrees to ride shotgun, it's time to move on. IMO Corey is the kind of warrior who will not accept being #2 at anything, even if he starts out convinced he can handle a demotion... The pride that made him great likely won't let him age gracefully.
Josh Miller: Miller is coming off an injury, Sauerbrun is not as good a locker room guy but more of an on-field weapon.
Cassell*: a post-draft, preseason wild card. If the right situation presents itself, especially to the NFC North (Chicago has J. Angelo, BB's buddy as GM; GB has future questions about Favre and Rogers; Detroit, depending on what happens in the draft; and even the Vikings) the Pats could move Cassell for a day 1 pick, though the more likely scenario is trading him in preseason '08 for a higher price.

1st Day Draft
1a. Anthony Spencer: Edge rusher who should impact right away as a pass-rushing specialist. Has pro-bowl potential.
1b. Brandon Siler: in 2 years will be 6'2'', 250 lbs and playing pro-bowl caliber ILB for the red white and blue.
2. AJ Davis or David Irons: '07 nickel/slot, '08 starting RCB opposite Hobbs after Samuel is traded.
3. Josh Gattis: Kerry Rhodes ahtleticism and potential. Can play FS or SS, and start in '08.

Key 2007 personnel (starters in bold)

QB: Brady, Cassell*, Rattay
RB: Maroney, Moore, Evans, Mills, Faulk
WR: Gaffney, Caldwell, Jackson, Welker
TE: Watson, Thomas, Shiancoe
OT: Light, Kaczur, O'Callaghan, Britt
OG: Mankins, Neal, Hochstein
C: Koppen
DL: Seymour, Wilfork, Warren, Green, Wright
OLB: Vrabel, Thomas, Colvin, Spencer
ILB: Fletcher, Bruschi, Alexander, Siler
CB: Samuel, Hobbs, Scott, Davis/Irons
S: Harrison, Wilson, Hawkins, Sanders, Gattis

ST: Gostkowski, Paxton, Sauerbrun, Woods, Mays, Andrews

Key 2008 personnel, starters in bold (Samuel franchised again and traded, Cassell traded, Warren signed, Hobbs signed)
QB: Brady, Rattay
RB: Maroney, Moore, Evans, Mills (Faulk moves on)
WR: Jackson, Gaffney/Caldwell, Welker
TE: Thomas, Watson, Shiancoe*
OL: same as '07
DL: same as '07 (Warren signs new deal)
OLB: Thomas, Spencer, Vrabel
ILB: Fletcher, Siler, Alexander
CB: Hobbs, Davis/Irons
S: Gattis, Sanders, Andrews

ST: Gostkowski, Sauerbrun, Paxton

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Kaching! $$$$$$$$$$$$

 

[PatsWorldChamps]

i like your adds, except moore... why him? out of your losses, i think we either keep the dude or upgrade.

looks like the pats are the odds on favorites to win the afc... and who wants to face tom brady with whatever team in a super bowl?

 

[jczxohn1]

Was going to do a point-by-point analysis, but after Box's validation it seems pointless.

Especially like the acquisition of Thomas and Welker. Wanted Welker for 3 yrs. now. Thomas will give us what Willie did. Both very important additions that eliminate potential problems. No problem with the losses you list. Have to lose something to keep Warren. Samuels handled intelligently and Cassel as well. Afraid we'll still be a little soft in the middle against strong running teams but with Siler the end will be in sight. Like drafting 2 LB's in the 1st. Need to improve the gene pool.

 

[spacecrime]

The Pats are obviously at a crossroads. Opinions are like @$$holes, as they say: everyone's got one. Here are a few ideas on how to revamp the team this offseason for 2007 while laying a solid foundation for '08.

We were 12-4, came within 2:27 of going to the superbowl, and this with a third the team not playing in the second half.

We are $26 million under the cap. We only have two significant players to lose in FA. We have two first round picks and will likely get an extra 3rd or 4th round compensatory pick. We have lost no coordinators.

It is not time to panic and revamp.

Recognize that while Samuel and Graham are important, they are only two of 25 starters. Most teams will lose more than two starters.

Sit back and enjoy the 2007 season.

 

[unoriginal]

Am I the only person that's looknig for the team to resign TBC? His name doesn't seem to be popping up on many wish lists, and linebacker isn't a plug n'chug position on this team. He's young and just starting to get there as a contributor. Belichick was upset he lost Matt Chatham for pete's sakes. MATT CHATHAM.

 

[PatsWorldChamps]

Am I the only person that's looknig for the team to resign TBC? His name doesn't seem to be popping up on many wish lists, and linebacker isn't a plug n'chug position on this team. He's young and just starting to get there as a contributor. Belichick was upset he lost Matt Chatham for pete's sakes. MATT CHATHAM.

id love to have TBC back, but it's all about the money..it depends at what price. Chatham? lol.. his best tackle was knocking the **** out of that streaker... first time he ever hit someone.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

The Pats are obviously at a crossroads. Opinions are like @$$holes, as they say: everyone's got one. Here are a few ideas on how to revamp the team this offseason for 2007 while laying a solid foundation for '08. I made some painful choices that I'm sure will offend some people, if any one really intends to waste valuable time reading this. But my intention is to be tough on the aging core of the team, and renovate it with young players as effectively as possible.

Key veteran acquisitions

Adalius Thomas: older than ideal, but will become the veteran leader of the OLBs as the team transitions away from Colvin and Vrabel over the next 2 years and refurbishes with young talent

Same age as Colvin and just 2 years younger than Vrabel - both of whom are proven veteran leaders on this team.

L. Fletcher-Baker: solid pass coverage skills and ability to read pre-snap keys make Fletcher's height a non-issue. Becomes veteran leader of ILB unit over next 2 seasons as Bruschi journeys to the Elysian fields...

That's a possibility.

Asante Samuel (franchise tag): franchise him, and let him play to "get paid" again. Then trade him in 2008 for maximum return. Use the money on Ty Warren extension in '08 instead.

Why wait a year and overpay at all? He's a maximum return guy now, could be chopped liver again by 2008. Buy low, sell high.

Mewelde Moore (RFA): a favorite of BB since the '04 draft, prototype 3rd down back to challenge Faulk, who again had durability issues which will likely increase.

If you're going to trade a pick for an RFA, 3rd down back is not a glaring need.

Wes Welker: can do everything that the current version of Troy Brown can do, only he's younger and better right now, with upside as a slot receiver.

I'd be tempted to do it for a #2, but certainly not for more.

3rd TE, Visanthe Shiancoe-type: a TE that can capably fill out the roster and respond in a dual role if injury strikes (he's used to that playing behind Jeremy "China doll" Shockey). A more attractive prospect might be RFA Ben Utecht of the Colts who was an undrafted free agent, I believe. I am interested in how Polian handles that situation, and would be happy if the Pats turned the tables and stole a Colt for a change. IMO Utecht is a superior all around player to Dallas Clark.

As a free-bee, perhaps - but not for a #2.

Heath Evans: solid lunchpail guy every team needs in the locker room. Eats up the media to shield more touchy teammates. Says he will take less to stay.
Todd Sauerbrun: best leg in a Patriot uniform since Camarill wouldn't argue with either, though Sauerbraun has a rep as an a-hole, and having rehabbed his rep somewhat here he may want the best available deal.

Tim Rattay: injury prone but a savvy backup who can win games with a good team. Pats have always been high on him, almost taking him over Brady in 2000.

That's not really true. It was a tossup pre draft, but both Rehbein and BB chose Brady. And it was a good thing. He's OK as a backup, but has been making over $1.5M per and in a QB starved market with lots of teams with real clunkers starting he'll likely command more than twice what BB wants to pay for a 3rd string gameday inactive vet, if he even wants one this year. I think he'd rather have a developmental QB on the roster for when Cassel departs.

Key veteran losses

Graham: Graham wants to be more than a lunchpail blocker, and another organization can offer him that. He flees for greener pastures and more receptions. Denver seems like a possibility, judging from last year's rumors.
Banta-Cain: I would prefer to keep Banta-Cain over Colvin. That is just insane... But Colvin still has a hefty cap hit. I would prefer a #1 draft pick at OLB to resigning TBC under these circumstances. A late 1st rd draft pick will likely be cheaper for more years at potentially better longterm impact.
T. Brown: Welker can do what the current Troy does, only better on ST and offense. Although not on defense, and he will likely cost twice as much plus draft compensation.
Dillon: Unless he takes a hefty pay cut and agrees to ride shotgun, it's time to move on. IMO Corey is the kind of warrior who will not accept being #2 at anything, even if he starts out convinced he can handle a demotion... The pride that made him great likely won't let him age gracefully.I haven't seen any sign of that, just deteriorating ability to function as an every down back. If he defers his roster bonus again this year for a guaranteed $2.5M, Faulk money, I'm fine with Corey as our Bus.
Josh Miller: Miller is coming off an injury, Sauerbrun is not as good a locker room guy but more of an on-field weapon.
Cassell*: a post-draft, preseason wild card. If the right situation presents itself, especially to the NFC North (Chicago has J. Angelo, BB's buddy as GM; GB has future questions about Favre and Rogers; Detroit, depending on what happens in the draft; and even the Vikings) the Pats could move Cassell for a day 1 pick, though the more likely scenario is trading him in preseason '08 for a higher price.But since he's the only backup QB in the system under 40, a better plan is to wait until 2008 to trade him for that 2008 pick. And it's Cassel with 1 L.

I wouldn't presume to speculate on the draft because we have no idea what BB perceives as value or for that matter need. And lots of the guru's will even change their minds as we meander through the combine to the draft. And none of that will happen until 6 weeks into FA when we will know where the holes remain and which have been filled.

 

[patsox23]

Belichick was upset he lost Matt Chatham for pete's sakes. MATT CHATHAM.

Whaaaaaaaat? Where do you get this? Good Lord.

 

[Patjew]

I would prefer to keep Banta-Cain over Colvin.

I do not get this at all. I love Bru and Vrabel, but with his youth and ability, Colvin to me is the LB we can afford least to lose. He's the only LB we have that's not old and not young.

 

[Mike the Brit]

A very interesting read, as always, Pony. As the founder member of the Patriots branch of the Wes Welker fan club, I agree with you wholeheartedly. But I have to take issue with you on Sauerbrun vs. Miller. It's not how hard you can kick it: it's where you kick it. Miller did a far better job of minimising touchbacks and returns.

Edit: Signing Welker doesn't mean cutting Troy. Troy was magnificent this season. Even if he only comes in on third down and red zone passing downs, he's worth having on the team.

 

[satz]

Miller has 1.4 ypr when he was punting btw the best in the league when he went down.remember he gives the coverage guys time/position for no return .

 

[everlong]

Good stuff as always PE.

Adalius Thomas: older than ideal, but will become the veteran leader of the OLBs as the team transitions away from Colvin and Vrabel over the next 2 years and refurbishes with young talent

Thomas would add a ton of speed and flexibility that this defense has been lacking. Although this defense gave up a record low it's a bit deceiving because of some of the teams on the schedule, IE GB, Minnesota, Buffalo twice, Miami twice.....they are all weak offensive teams. The need for speed is critical going forward. I think he's worth top dollar.

L. Fletcher-Baker: solid pass coverage skills and ability to read pre-snap keys make Fletcher's height a non-issue. Becomes veteran leader of ILB unit over next 2 seasons as Bruschi journeys to the Elysian fields...

I think a rotation of Brushi, Seau, and Fletcher would fill the gap that used to be Bruschi, Johnson and Phiffer but it's not a long term solution. They still need to get some young bodies in here with some speed. It comes down to coin for LFB, if he wants to come in for modest dollars I'd take him on but if he's looking for top dollar one more time I say pass. He already has one ring.

Asante Samuel (franchise tag): franchise him, and let him play to "get paid" again. Then trade him in 2008 for maximum return. Use the money on Ty Warren extension in '08 instead.

If you can work out an extension for around 7/year great. If you cannot and he wants to break the bank then I can see it playing out as you say or him being traded for draft picks this year. That would certainly put us in a Deion Branch type of situation at CB unless they can sign another CB but this is a position they have used the likes of Otis Smith and Randall Gay to win SBs with.

Mewelde Moore (RFA): a favorite of BB since the '04 draft, prototype 3rd down back to challenge Faulk, who again had durability issues which will likely increase.

MM is good.

Wes Welker: can do everything that the current version of Troy Brown can do, only he's younger and better right now, with upside as a slot receiver.

Love WW but not as a RFA costing a #2.

3rd TE, Visanthe Shiancoe-type: a TE that can capably fill out the roster and respond in a dual role if injury strikes (he's used to that playing behind Jeremy "China doll" Shockey). A more attractive prospect might be RFA Ben Utecht of the Colts who was an undrafted free agent, I believe. I am interested in how Polian handles that situation, and would be happy if the Pats turned the tables and stole a Colt for a change. IMO Utecht is a superior all around player to Dallas Clark.

There have been some big time TE's selected in later rounds. I think this is a value position where they could find a guy like Randy McMichael (6th round) in the draft and coach him up. I do like Utecht.

Heath Evans: solid lunchpail guy every team needs in the locker room. Eats up the media to shield more touchy teammates. Says he will take less to stay.

I have to imagine it will be Evans or Pass not both making the team. Pass is the more talented player but certainly more injury prone and not as tough.

Todd Sauerbrun: best leg in a Patriot uniform since Camarillo.

He also out kicked his coverage a lot. Miller is much more consistent and the return yards against don't lie. BB was p!ssed at him more than once.

Tim Rattay: injury prone but a savvy backup who can win games with a good team. Pats have always been high on him, almost taking him over Brady in 2000.

I like it.

Key veteran losses

Graham: Graham wants to be more than a lunchpail blocker, and another organization can offer him that. He flees for greener pastures and more receptions. Denver seems like a possibility, judging from last year's rumors.

Denver and Seattle are the front runners. This is a tough one. I think Thomas is going to be great and Watson if he can stay healthy and improve in a few areas is a star but Graham is so physical and such a good team guy it's tough to let him go.

Banta-Cain: I would prefer to keep Banta-Cain over Colvin. But Colvin still has a hefty cap hit. I would prefer a #1 draft pick at OLB to resigning TBC under these circumstances. A late 1st rd draft pick will likely be cheaper for more years at potentially better longterm impact.

In a Jarvis Green type role and for the right money he's a good guy to bring back. I'm not sold on him as a 4 down guy and certainly not for top money.

T. Brown: Welker can do what the current Troy does, only better on ST and offense.

He'll cost next to nothing to bring back and he's so worth it just for his presence.

Dillon: Unless he takes a hefty pay cut and agrees to ride shotgun, it's time to move on. IMO Corey is the kind of warrior who will not accept being #2 at anything, even if he starts out convinced he can handle a demotion... The pride that made him great likely won't let him age gracefully.

Agreed.

Josh Miller: Miller is coming off an injury, Sauerbrun is not as good a locker room guy but more of an on-field weapon.

I think BB would rather have Miller and his consistency.

Cassell*: a post-draft, preseason wild card. If the right situation presents itself, especially to the NFC North (Chicago has J. Angelo, BB's buddy as GM; GB has future questions about Favre and Rogers; Detroit, depending on what happens in the draft; and even the Vikings) the Pats could move Cassell for a day 1 pick, though the more likely scenario is trading him in preseason '08 for a higher price.

Cleveland is the place I could see him ending up if the Browns are committed to Romeo beyond this year, big if. I really like him but (hopefully) he'll never see the field here.

1st Day Draft
1a. Anthony Spencer: Edge rusher who should impact right away as a pass-rushing specialist. Has pro-bowl potential.
1b. Brandon Siler: in 2 years will be 6'2'', 250 lbs and playing pro-bowl caliber ILB for the red white and blue.
2. AJ Davis or David Irons: '07 nickel/slot, '08 starting RCB opposite Hobbs after Samuel is traded.
3. Josh Gattis: Kerry Rhodes ahtleticism and potential. Can play FS or SS, and start in '08.

You know what you do not see from this team? A hit like Tebucky Jones knocking Torry Holt 5 yards out of bounds or like Wilson pasting Wayne and Stokley in the same game. Without Rodney they don't have the enforcer. I want them to grab either Landry or Nelson even if it means trading up a few slots. Those guys are so fast and they are not afraid to put a helmet on people, both can also play special teams. I like Griffin as well if they are gone but a little later.

They need young team speed on defense especially at FS and ILB.

 

[dryheat44]

First, great effort.

But I still can't wrap my head around the fact that you'd rather have TBC than Colvin, and only Colvin's cap acceleration keeps him here. I think Colvin is our only true playmaking linebacker left (to be fair, Vrabel might re-emerge if he gets back to OLB). TBC has shown to be a one-dimensional linebacker and special teams standout. I'd like him back at a reasonable salary, but to (in an ideal world) jettison Colvin to keep him? Mind-boggling, to be charitable.

 

[PonyExpress]

First, great effort.

But I still can't wrap my head around the fact that you'd rather have TBC than Colvin, and only Colvin's cap acceleration keeps him here. I think Colvin is our only true playmaking linebacker left (to be fair, Vrabel might re-emerge if he gets back to OLB). TBC has shown to be a one-dimensional linebacker and special teams standout. I'd like him back at a reasonable salary, but to (in an ideal world) jettison Colvin to keep him? Mind-boggling, to be charitable.

The ideal world is for pigs that fly. In the real world Colvin stays over TBC.

 

[PonyExpress]

You know what you do not see from this team? A hit like Tebucky Jones knocking Torry Holt 5 yards out of bounds or like Wilson pasting Wayne and Stokley in the same game. Without Rodney they don't have the enforcer. I want them to grab either Landry or Nelson even if it means trading up a few slots. Those guys are so fast and they are not afraid to put a helmet on people, both can also play special teams. I like Griffin as well if they are gone but a little later.

They need young team speed on defense especially at FS and ILB.

Gattis can be a vicious hitter and physical presence at 6'1'' 210+. He will probably run under 4.5. Landry and Nelson will probably be gone in the top 12, and Merriweather, for all his talent, is a powder keg whose troubled profile does not fit a Pats' 1st rd pick. The ceiling is high, but the floor is in Hell. Griffin takes bad angles vs the run, and doesn't like to stick his nose in and play physical, possibly due to the fact he has been nursing a neck stinger. Still, shaky tackling skills and lack of physical play are probably not what any of us are looking for at FS, despite Griffin's man-to-man coverage ability...

 

[Rob0729]

Wes Welker: can do everything that the current version of Troy Brown can do, only he's younger and better right now, with upside as a slot receiver.

Odds are good that the Dolphins give Welker at least the second tier RFA tender offer which will require a first round pick compensation. He is too important to their return game and passing game not to shell out the money for that. No way do the Pats give up a first round pick to get Welker.

I also think you can say the same thing about Melwede Moore. Odds are with all the cap space all these teams have, most RFA will get either first (1st and 3rd compensation), second (1st comepensation), or the new third tier (2nd round compensation) tender offers. Too many teams are flushed with cash with not a lot of options on how to spend it all.

 

[Rob0729]

Cassell*: a post-draft, preseason wild card. If the right situation presents itself, especially to the NFC North (Chicago has J. Angelo, BB's buddy as GM; GB has future questions about Favre and Rogers; Detroit, depending on what happens in the draft; and even the Vikings) the Pats could move Cassell for a day 1 pick, though the more likely scenario is trading him in preseason '08 for a higher price.

I can't see anyone giving up a first day pick for Cassel. Right now, I would say his trade value is a fifth or sixth round pick most likely a sixth. Cassel has done little to justify much in trade compensation. People may be high on him here, but he has shown little to show that he is anything more than a back up QB. No team is going to trade a first day pick for a guy with little professional and college experience.

 

[PhilD]

I'm looking forward to a whole off-season of debating what we'd potentially get in a trade for Cassell this year or potentially next year.

I think you have to get on the field and win regular season games to get first day picks. E.g. Feeley won 5 games in 2002 for the Eagles and commanded a 2nd round pick. Matt Schaub has won 2/2 regular season games started, lost a playoff game. Had very high QB ratings in his 2005 games. He was touted as a potential trade, but (from speculation) it sounded like Atlanta wanted a first and nobody was willing to pony up that kind of compensation.

Cassell in my opinion would not command a first day pick until he was able to get on the field and win some games. Although, yes, the competition was tough, he didn't win the job at USC. Any team that would be willing to trade would be taking a huge risk. We evaluated that risk/value (however you want to put it) in the 7th round. Now yes, other teams might expect him to have progressed under the Patriots, but without having anything except a few preseason passes to go on, why should we expect any other team to be willing to offer much more than another 7th?

 

[mavfan2390]

Alright PE, I'll play...


Key veteran acquisitions
L. Fletcher-Baker
Asante Samuel*
Ben Utecht #
Tully Banta Cain*
Jarret Johnson
Leonard Davis
Evans*
Ed Hartwell
Troy Brown

*indicates resigning
#indicated RFA


Key veteran losses
Dillon (cut)
Todd Sauerbran
Hawkins (cut)



Draft
1a. Darrelle Revis CB
1b. Brandon Meriweather FS
2. Brian Leonard HB/FB
3. Josh Wilson CB
4. Prescott Burgess
4 comp. Steve Smith


QB: Brady, Cassell

RB: Maroney, Leonard, Faulk
FB: Evans

WR: Caldwell, Jackson, Gaffney, Smith, Brown
TE: Watson, Thomas, Utecht

LT: Light, Kaczur,
LG: Mankins,
C: Koppen, Hochstein
RG:Neal,
RT:Davis, O'Callaghan, Britt


RE: Seymour, Green
LE: Warren, Hill
DT: Wilfork, Wright, Smith

ROLB: Vrabel, Alexander
MLB: Fletcher, Hartwell, Johnson, Bruschi, A. Waters
LOLB: Colvin, TBC, P. Burgess

CB: Samuel, Revis, Hobbs, J. Wilson, C. Scott
FS: Meriweather, E. Wilson,
SS: Harrison, Sanders,

K: Stephen Gostowski
P: Josh Miller
KO: Stephen Gostowski

KR: Josh Wilson, Ellis Hobbs
PR: Josh Wilson