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This from Bucky Brooks at NFL.com:
Pondering the best- and worst-case scenarios on Day 1
He lists some different scenarios for each team, discussion possible alternatives, which is an interesting approach. Some teams of interest:
3. Kansas City Chiefs
Tyson Jackson, DE, LSU
The first two picks shouldn't interfere with Kansas City's plans at No. 3 if the Chiefs want to address their defensive deficiencies with their top choice. After finishing near the bottom of the league in several defensive categories, the Chiefs are expected to focus on solidifying that side of the ball. A pass rusher is needed, and the unit could also use a stout interior player to shore up the run in their new hybrid 3-4. In addition, the team could use another playmaker at linebacker to assist Derrick Johnson. New GM Scott Pioli was part of a New England brass that drafted defensive linemen in first round in three of their first four years, which sparked the team to three Super Bowl titles this decade. With that in mind, the pick here is Tyson Jackson, who would solidify the interior of the Chiefs' 3-4.
» If the Chiefs opt for a pass rusher to improve a unit that registered only 10 sacks last year, Texas' Brian Orakpo would provide that hybrid rusher that is needed in the 3-4 off the edge.
» Aaron Curry could be in play if the team decides that the Butkus Award winner would be a great fit alongside Johnson at linebacker.
» If neither of those options are attractive to the team, it wouldn't surprise anyone to see the team snatch Monroe off the board to solidify their tackle situation.
» If new coach Todd Haley opts to build a dynamic offense around spectacular wide receivers, he could take Michael Crabtree with the pick and pair the Red Raider with Dwayne Bowe to form an intriguing tandem on the outside.
5. Cleveland Browns
B.J. Raji, DT, Boston College
Eric Mangini has the opportunity to reshape the Browns' 3-4 with the fifth overall pick. The team needs another pass rusher to complement Kamerion Wimbley, and could use another big body to shore up their run defense. In addition, the team is in need of a playmaker at the safety spot after losing Sean Jones in free agency. On the other side of the ball, the team must make a decision on whether to ship out Braylon Edwards, and how to best handle the Donte Stallworth legal situation. However, championship defenses are traditionally strong down the middle, and B.J. Raji will team with Pro Bowler Shaun Rogers to form an impenetrable wall. Raji would man the nose tackle spot with Rogers sliding over to end.
» If the Browns opt for the pass rusher, Orakpo would appear to be the best choice due to his explosiveness and pass-rush skills.
» Crabtree's receiving skills are so enticing -- and the team's issues at receiver so pressing -- that the Browns could eschew their defensive woes and go for a playmaker with the top selection.
» While it will be difficult to drop out of this spot, another team could make a strong offer if a targeted top-tier player (Sanchez?) is still available. A trade to a lower pick would be an intriguing option, especially if the Browns feel like they could scoop up Ohio State CB Malcolm Jenkins with a trade that would net them their first pick somewhere in the middle of Round 1
9. Green Bay Packers
Brian Orakpo, DE/OLB, Texas
Dom Capers takes over the defense with the intention of transforming the unit into a 3-4. While some of the pieces are in place, the team needs to strengthen the defensive line to make the scheme work. In addition, the unit could benefit from discovering a legitimate pass rusher to place opposite Aaron Kampman, who is moving to outside linebacker in Capers' scheme. With that premise in mind, look for the Packers to pull the trigger on Orakpo here.
» In the four drafts he has conducted as Packers GM, Ted Thompson has traded down 13 times to accumulate more picks, something he learned under Ron Wolf when the two were together in Green Bay. With so many players the Packers are targeting gone in this mock scenario, logic says Thompson will look to bail out again.
» If in the unlikely scenario that Andre Smith falls to them, the Packers would have a hard time passing on a franchise-caliber offensive tackle, especially with the careers of Mark Tauscher and Chad Clifton on their last legs.
» A 3-4 defense needs to be strong up the middle, so B.J. Raji will garner some consideration at this pick if he's still there.
» If the team is looking for a defensive end capable of two-gapping, then Tyson Jackson would be the logical choice.
12. Denver Broncos
Aaron Curry, OLB, Wake Forest
The Broncos have two picks in the first round (Nos. 12 and 18), and will focus heavily on the defensive side of the ball. The team is lacking playmakers within the front seven, so defensive line and linebacker will be critical positions. In addition, the team may make a play for a quarterback if the right one falls to them at either pick. However, the Broncos are poised to become the beneficiaries of a surprising draft-day development as they land Aaron Curry at the 12th pick. Although Curry is regarded as the best defensive prospect on the board, he experiences a bit of a free fall on draft day due to teams' reluctance to spend a high pick (and top dollar) on a linebacker that doesn't have exceptional rush skills. While this scenario appears to lack logical sense, it is a very real possibility if the Lions don't take Curry with the first overall selection.
» The Broncos would love to see Curry, Raji or Tyson Jackson (who would give their defense a stout defensive end capable of moving inside on passing downs) still on the board at this spot. If they're not, Denver could take a flier on one of the other pass rushers available at this point. Everette Brown and Maybin would be likely candidates as hybrid-type rushers off the edge.
» Rey Maualuga would also fit into their plans, but No. 12 may be too high for the team to pull the trigger on the hard-hitting linebacker who could still be there when the Broncos pick again at 18 (although in this mock he is not).
23. New England Patriots
Connor Barwin, OLB, Cincinnati
The Patriots are looking to retool an aging defense that needs more playmakers on the second level. Therefore, linebackers and corners would appear to be the priority. The team could also use a pass-rushing specialist on the opposite side of Adalius Thomas. On offense, the Patriots need another receiver and potential third-down running back. When the Patriots parted ways with Mike Vrabel, Bill Belichick not only lost a valuable defensive player, but one of the team's best weapons in the red zone. Connor Barwin fits need as a hybrid pass-rushing specialist.
» If not Barwin, the Patriots could take pass-rushing specialist Larry English and make it two consecutive years of taking a linebacker in the first round.
» If the neither is available at No. 23, Vontae Davis would be in this mock scenario.
» Don't dismiss Clay Matthews with this pick as well. He looks like a Belichick player.
Personally, much as I love Barwin at 23, I would hope the Pats would move up and take Curry well before letting him slip to #12. Then they could target Barwin at 34.
Pondering the best- and worst-case scenarios on Day 1
He lists some different scenarios for each team, discussion possible alternatives, which is an interesting approach. Some teams of interest:
3. Kansas City Chiefs
Tyson Jackson, DE, LSU
The first two picks shouldn't interfere with Kansas City's plans at No. 3 if the Chiefs want to address their defensive deficiencies with their top choice. After finishing near the bottom of the league in several defensive categories, the Chiefs are expected to focus on solidifying that side of the ball. A pass rusher is needed, and the unit could also use a stout interior player to shore up the run in their new hybrid 3-4. In addition, the team could use another playmaker at linebacker to assist Derrick Johnson. New GM Scott Pioli was part of a New England brass that drafted defensive linemen in first round in three of their first four years, which sparked the team to three Super Bowl titles this decade. With that in mind, the pick here is Tyson Jackson, who would solidify the interior of the Chiefs' 3-4.
» If the Chiefs opt for a pass rusher to improve a unit that registered only 10 sacks last year, Texas' Brian Orakpo would provide that hybrid rusher that is needed in the 3-4 off the edge.
» Aaron Curry could be in play if the team decides that the Butkus Award winner would be a great fit alongside Johnson at linebacker.
» If neither of those options are attractive to the team, it wouldn't surprise anyone to see the team snatch Monroe off the board to solidify their tackle situation.
» If new coach Todd Haley opts to build a dynamic offense around spectacular wide receivers, he could take Michael Crabtree with the pick and pair the Red Raider with Dwayne Bowe to form an intriguing tandem on the outside.
5. Cleveland Browns
B.J. Raji, DT, Boston College
Eric Mangini has the opportunity to reshape the Browns' 3-4 with the fifth overall pick. The team needs another pass rusher to complement Kamerion Wimbley, and could use another big body to shore up their run defense. In addition, the team is in need of a playmaker at the safety spot after losing Sean Jones in free agency. On the other side of the ball, the team must make a decision on whether to ship out Braylon Edwards, and how to best handle the Donte Stallworth legal situation. However, championship defenses are traditionally strong down the middle, and B.J. Raji will team with Pro Bowler Shaun Rogers to form an impenetrable wall. Raji would man the nose tackle spot with Rogers sliding over to end.
» If the Browns opt for the pass rusher, Orakpo would appear to be the best choice due to his explosiveness and pass-rush skills.
» Crabtree's receiving skills are so enticing -- and the team's issues at receiver so pressing -- that the Browns could eschew their defensive woes and go for a playmaker with the top selection.
» While it will be difficult to drop out of this spot, another team could make a strong offer if a targeted top-tier player (Sanchez?) is still available. A trade to a lower pick would be an intriguing option, especially if the Browns feel like they could scoop up Ohio State CB Malcolm Jenkins with a trade that would net them their first pick somewhere in the middle of Round 1
9. Green Bay Packers
Brian Orakpo, DE/OLB, Texas
Dom Capers takes over the defense with the intention of transforming the unit into a 3-4. While some of the pieces are in place, the team needs to strengthen the defensive line to make the scheme work. In addition, the unit could benefit from discovering a legitimate pass rusher to place opposite Aaron Kampman, who is moving to outside linebacker in Capers' scheme. With that premise in mind, look for the Packers to pull the trigger on Orakpo here.
» In the four drafts he has conducted as Packers GM, Ted Thompson has traded down 13 times to accumulate more picks, something he learned under Ron Wolf when the two were together in Green Bay. With so many players the Packers are targeting gone in this mock scenario, logic says Thompson will look to bail out again.
» If in the unlikely scenario that Andre Smith falls to them, the Packers would have a hard time passing on a franchise-caliber offensive tackle, especially with the careers of Mark Tauscher and Chad Clifton on their last legs.
» A 3-4 defense needs to be strong up the middle, so B.J. Raji will garner some consideration at this pick if he's still there.
» If the team is looking for a defensive end capable of two-gapping, then Tyson Jackson would be the logical choice.
12. Denver Broncos
Aaron Curry, OLB, Wake Forest
The Broncos have two picks in the first round (Nos. 12 and 18), and will focus heavily on the defensive side of the ball. The team is lacking playmakers within the front seven, so defensive line and linebacker will be critical positions. In addition, the team may make a play for a quarterback if the right one falls to them at either pick. However, the Broncos are poised to become the beneficiaries of a surprising draft-day development as they land Aaron Curry at the 12th pick. Although Curry is regarded as the best defensive prospect on the board, he experiences a bit of a free fall on draft day due to teams' reluctance to spend a high pick (and top dollar) on a linebacker that doesn't have exceptional rush skills. While this scenario appears to lack logical sense, it is a very real possibility if the Lions don't take Curry with the first overall selection.
» The Broncos would love to see Curry, Raji or Tyson Jackson (who would give their defense a stout defensive end capable of moving inside on passing downs) still on the board at this spot. If they're not, Denver could take a flier on one of the other pass rushers available at this point. Everette Brown and Maybin would be likely candidates as hybrid-type rushers off the edge.
» Rey Maualuga would also fit into their plans, but No. 12 may be too high for the team to pull the trigger on the hard-hitting linebacker who could still be there when the Broncos pick again at 18 (although in this mock he is not).
23. New England Patriots
Connor Barwin, OLB, Cincinnati
The Patriots are looking to retool an aging defense that needs more playmakers on the second level. Therefore, linebackers and corners would appear to be the priority. The team could also use a pass-rushing specialist on the opposite side of Adalius Thomas. On offense, the Patriots need another receiver and potential third-down running back. When the Patriots parted ways with Mike Vrabel, Bill Belichick not only lost a valuable defensive player, but one of the team's best weapons in the red zone. Connor Barwin fits need as a hybrid pass-rushing specialist.
» If not Barwin, the Patriots could take pass-rushing specialist Larry English and make it two consecutive years of taking a linebacker in the first round.
» If the neither is available at No. 23, Vontae Davis would be in this mock scenario.
» Don't dismiss Clay Matthews with this pick as well. He looks like a Belichick player.
Personally, much as I love Barwin at 23, I would hope the Pats would move up and take Curry well before letting him slip to #12. Then they could target Barwin at 34.
