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Bringing the AFC Playoff Picture In Focus

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  1. PatsFans.com Article

    PatsFans.com Article In the Starting Line-Up

    Sep 10, 2007
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    Bringing the AFC Playoff Picture In Focus
    By: Derek Havens

    Bringing the AFC Playoff Picture In Focus as the 2010 NFL season comes to a close. ...

  2. jmt57

    jmt57 Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

    Aug 13, 2005
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    To piggyback on Derek's blog, I stumbled across this site that gives probabilities of where each team will end up in playoff seedings. No comment on the validity of the stats used to come up with these probabilities, but fun to look at while we're waiting for the games to be played.

    NFL playoff races and other musings | 2010 NFL Playoff Predictions after Week 15 | NFL-Forecast.com

    AFCE: Pats have a 97% chance of winning the division.
    AFCN: Steelers have an 80% chance of winning.
    AFCS: Bad news for those looking for the Colts to miss the playoffs; they have a 79% chance of winning.
    AFCW: They have it at about KC 52%, SD 46%. For those concerned about that first round draft pick, they're giving Oakland a 1.05% chance of winning the division.

    NFCE: Eagles are at over 98%.
    NFCN: Bears have clinched the division.
    NFCS: Despite this week's game, Falcons are over 93%.
    NFCW: This is kind of interesting, because they have the Rams (19%) far behind the 5-9 49ers (35%); no clear cut majority winner, as Seattle is at 45%.

    AFC Playoff Seeding
    #1: Pats 97%
    #2: Steelers 80%, Ravens 19%
    #3: Chiefs 48%, Chargers 45%; Colts are at about 5%
    #4: Colts are about 74% while the Jaguars are just 18%
    #5: Ravens 59%, Jets 35%
    #6: Jets 62%, Ravens 19%, Steelers 16%

    Overall they give the Chiefs a 52% chance of making the playoffs, the Chargers 49%, Colts 79%, Jaguars 20%, Titans 2% and Raiders 1%.

    Their most likely first round AFC matchups would therefore be the Jets at the Chiefs and the Ravens at the Colts.

    NFC Playoff Seeding
    #1: Falcons 91%, Saints 7%, Eagles 2%
    #2: Eagles 59%, Bears 38%
    #3: Bears 62%, Eagles 37%
    #4: Seahawks 45%, 49ers 35%, Rams 19%
    #5: Saints 76%, Giants 8%, Packers 8%, Falcons 7%, Bucs 1%
    #6: Giants 46%, Packers 39%, Bucs 9%, Eagles 1%

    Overall the Falcons and Bears have both clinched, so they are both 100%; the Eagles are right behind them at 99.6%. Then they give the Saints 88%, Giants 56%, Packers 47%, and Bucs 10%; the NFCW teams playoff chances equal their chances of winning the division.

    Based on all that their most likely scenario is that Green Bay, Tampa Bay, San Francisco and St. Louis miss the playoffs while the Giants are at Chicago and New Orleans is at Seattle in the first round.
    Last edited: Dec 24, 2010
  3. HershilShah23

    HershilShah23 Guest

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    AWESOME (Ignore this I am trying to get to 50 posts)
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