Most of your premise is built upon the idea that Samuel sits out until week 10. I don't think he will do this.
Reading the rest of your post, I see that you're of the "he reports to camp and it all gets done" school of thought. I am a pessimist, and a Branch survivor. We have a support group, "Survivors of the Deion Branch holdout." It meets here at 11...
Seriously - yes, the conversation gets easier if we make your assumption, which is, hey, relax, it will work out. I know 4 out of 5 experts say it will. Probably because of last year's experience, my gut says start thinking of the alternatives. Yes, missing $5M out of about 8 is different from what Branch would be passing up. But I refuse to be heartened by common sense.
As far as trying new tactics and raising the ante for a trade, every team in the league had a chance to sign Samuel with a cost of two #1s. They could have approached the Patriots with some sort of compromise. Why would a team suddenly feel the need to make such a deal now?
They wouldn't. QED.
The Patriots have been inventive, although misguided, the Branch situation is a good example. By allowing Branch to seek a trade it opened a Pandora's box and in many opinions blew up in their face. This year the are going back to their traditional stance of making an offer and then backing away until the situation plays itself out.
I agree to a point. I like the trade value as it was eventually realized in the Branch situation. I do think that combined w/Seymour getting a decent (but we should note, not "monster" deal,) this set the stage for the Samuel situation. So my caveat is that the "next" situation was a known issue, when they made their deals last season. Samuel filled the niche nicely. I agree they are moving away from either trading or caving.
If you're right, everybody knows all these things, and it's all posturing. If I'm right, it's just a bad time to be Asante (i.e., looking for the jackpot.)
Another premise is that Samuel wants $80 million like Clements, we don't know this. All we know is he wants more than the $30M or so the Patriots offered.
Agreed, as with all speculation, we all get to look back and talk about how it was all speculation. Yes, the 80M/8yr/30M guaranteed has been repeated enough times that it's taken as fact, and the 3 years at 30M is considered almost gospel. Evidently, however, the amount of guaranteed money is the sticking point (which of course is what everybody looks for in the first place.) So, we know the 3 year, 30M "strong rumor", the 13M Pats offer. We also know that two years at close to $18M is Samuel's "fear" (that is, what he gets if he is franchised twice.) You can look at 9M/year (18M) for two years as a non-starter. Number of years on the deal, obviously, is also of interest to both Samuel and the Pats.
So now he is acting within his rights to miss some or all of training camp (it is not a holdout since he is not under contract). It is laughable to include a comment about sitting him, whether he plays a down or not is outside the scope of a business conversation. If he signs the tender and joins the team the Patriots have to pay him.
If I am a businessman, I decide the allocation of my resources, including players. I don't think it's likely, but it is in no way illegal. It is also quite possible if he's got some rust, and the best way to win is play him at nickel this year. I have seen stranger things happen.
I will repeat myself but IMO neither Samuel or the Patriots are doing anything wrong, it is purely posturing and feet stomping. I believe we will see him show up just in time to start receiving pay checks. In 08 if he is franchised he will have made close to $18M, while publically he may complain about the fairness of the CBA, in his heart of hearts he will feel pretty damn happy.
18M if he plays the 10 games this year. As I said, he has the option of going nuclear and taking the holdout through game 10. He'd end up playing for $3M this year if that is the case.
I agree. Neither he nor the team has done anything wrong. We'll see. Maybe very smart things are happening behind the scenes. Just like maybe they were with Branch last year (who has mentioned more than once how it was never his intention to get traded.)
We will see. I only mention the tools at the disposal of the team, should Samuel use all the tools at the disposal of the individual player.
PFnV
