Breer's 53, Bunker Hill Day Edition

[jah]

Hmm. This is my (fairly uneducated) 53-man prediction. I'd make a thread of my own but I can't:

QB:
Brady
Hoyer

RB:
Maroney
Faulk
Morris
BJGE
Clayton

WR:
Moss
Welker
Edelman
Holt
Tate
Price
Aiken

TE:
Gronkowski
Hernandez
Crumpler

OL:
Light
Kaczur
Neal
Vollmer
Koppen
LeVoir
Connolly
Larsen

DL:
Wilfork
T. Warren
G. Warren
Brace
Pryor
Wright
Deaderick

OLB:
Banta-Cain
Cunningham
Burgess
Ninkovich
Woods

ILB:
Mayo
Spikes
McKenzie
Guyton

CB:
Bodden
Butler
McCourty
Wilhite
Arrington

S:
Meriweather
Chung
McGowan
Sanders

ST:
Gostkowski
Mesko
Ingram

Surprise cuts: Fred Taylor, Damione Lewis (or Gerard Warren--I think only one of them will make it).

Surprise keepers: Thomas Clayton (I saw some preseason plays he was in and he looked pretty good...he might be a pleasant surprise if he makes the team), Brandon Deaderick

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Let's put it this way. The Pats would not be practicing Welker in meaningless May and June practices if they planned on sitting him out FIVE months later in September or October. Whatever is holding him back now will be ancient history by the regular season, which is still a ways away. The Patriots have never practiced a guy in minicamps (to my recollection) and then sat him at the beginning of the season. Those players are always on a timetable; it is progressive unless there are setbacks. LeVoir, Eddie Jackson, Chad Jackson, Troy Brown, David Thomas, Richard Seymour, and all others who have been on PUP in recent years were never seen in the summer.

Minor point here, but David Thomas, at least, was activated before the 2007 season began, and the Patriots did hold a spot on the 53 even though he wasn't ready to go week 1. For the life of me, given how stacked the roster already was, I just don't see why they were so keen on getting him back so quickly.

 

[efin98]

Minor point here, but David Thomas, at least, was activated before the 2007 season began, and the Patriots did hold a spot on the 53 even though he wasn't ready to go week 1. For the life of me, given how stacked the roster already was, I just don't see why they were so keen on getting him back so quickly.

In this scenario I could see them easing him back maybe against the Bills in week 3 but why bother if he is ready to go for the start of the season? Why keep him out of practice or why keep him off the roster when they don't have to?

 

[Kontradiction]

Your Arrington comments are way off base:

Kyle Arrington Becomes Patriots' Special Teams Leader in No Time - New England Patriots - NESN.com

Not only did Arrington lead the Patriots in special teams tackles in 2009, he did it while playing just in a little more than half a season ( 9 games ). Further, in the 9 games Arrington was a Patriot, he accounted for a whopping 24.5 % of all Patriot special teams tackles. NESN named Arrington the Patriots 2009 special teams player of the year.

Arrington is only 23 years old, and earns just $395,000 per year. Additionally,as the linked article above explains, has taken plenty of reps with the regular defense first and second teams during recent practices.

Arrington is an iron clad lock for the 53 man roster.

I'm not sure how I missed that part when I first read this, but I agree. Arrington very quickly became our special teams leader last year. As for Holt (not from you, but others), he's not going anywhere until this receiving corps shows what it can do against actual competition. Personally, I would be suprised if Holt got cut. But the younger bodies in our receiving corps have tons of potential. If it translates, he could be the odd man out.

 

[Patspsycho]

When was Colvin a surprise cut? He was released in February 2008. Re-signed in December 2008, retired after the season.

Connolly was not cut in 2009, or 2008, for that matter. He made the roster out of camp both years.

Perhaps a better term would be that there is always a surprise roster movement every year.

This past season it was Seymour, being traded. Colvin to me was a surprise release, if not a cut. Did you expect that?

 

[Sciz]

My opinions:

Thomas Williams over BJGE, playing some fullback in addition to being the 5th ILB and a core STer.

Welker on PUP to start, opening a spot for Aiken. Price will be stashed on IR (with a hangnail, of course) once Welker is available.

Sorry Breer, that was idiotic. Ingram is in, leaving Ohrnberger, Welch, and Larsen one spot to fight over. I'll pick Larsen, but I have no idea why.

Deaderick over Lewis. Lewis, Wright, and Pryor all seem like the 3rd down, 4-2 Nickel DTs that we often see. Wright has great production, and Pryor has youth. That gives Lewis' spot to a true 3-4 DE.

Crable over Woods. Woods has shown that he doesn't have a future on defense. I'll give his spot to a guy who might.

Thomas Williams as the 5th ILB, as mentioned above.

I agree with Breer that Arrington will make the roster. Shame on all of you leaving him out!

I think McGowan could be on the way out, but I don't know who would take his place on defense as the 4th safety. Lockett would need to prove a much better option on STs, or I think this could be where the Pats pick up a castoff from another team.

Rip apart my roster now, please

 

[pats1]

Minor point here, but David Thomas, at least, was activated before the 2007 season began, and the Patriots did hold a spot on the 53 even though he wasn't ready to go week 1. For the life of me, given how stacked the roster already was, I just don't see why they were so keen on getting him back so quickly.

Good point - I know it was a foot injury and involved PUP, but I forgot that he came off before the start of the season.

 

[pats1]

That's the worst case, being out until November. Frankly here I believe it is best to be pessimistic in his return rather than optimistic, any additional help he brings earlier than November is a bonus to the team and worth shortchanging him over.

Given what we are seeing him do at this point, anything he doesn't do in September of October would be considered shortchanging.

Welch doing long snaps to me is covering their butts in case the worst case scenario happens- Ingram gets injured. I see this as no different than the team bringing in additional RBs and WRs and another punter for TC to give the starters a break.

Exactly.

 

[pats1]

I can see where he could be ready to play in the opening game, but keep in mind that ready to play in a game is not necessarily ready to play in 19 or 20 games in a row.

At some point his knee is likely to need rest. I'd rather it happen in September than in the playoffs.

It's going to be a long time until Aug 1.

Again, his participation in practice to this point would seem to indiciate that he is ready to play a full season. If he wasn't, then everything the Pats' recent history has told us would indicate he wouldn't even be close to the practice field.

Wes Welker does not rest.

 

[pats1]

They are not practices. No contact. What he is doing is the running part of his rehab. That's all. he isn't playing football.

Give me an example of another time when a player participated in minicamp as part of his "rehab," and then been out for camp/preseason. It has never happened in the Belichick era. That has never been the way they do things.

I don't know what the Pats evaluation is and neither do you. The fact that he is running around does not mean he is ready to play football. Only that he is ready to run around. If he is ready to practice, we will know August 1. That will be his first practice.

Again, you are ignoring history here. The Pats do not practice players in May and June if they do not believe that they are ready to play football in September. Ever.

No, I never said or implied that.

You asked what possible reason there could be for Welker to be on Pup. There are several One of them is that with him on pup, we'd have six WRs play early in the year. If one gets hurt, we'd have six including Welker. With Wleker playing, we'd not have one of the original six. I know it's a bit complicated, but think of it as a depth issue.-+

Again, not having one of the original six is an issue far and away dwarfed by having Welker for six weeks.

I'm not undervaluing Welker. Exactly the opposite. I am valuing him so highly I will not take a chance on losing his services in 2010. If I undervalued Welker, I wouldn't care if he re-injured his knee.

If the Patriots had any fears of losing Welker's services in 2010, he wouldn't have been on the field for minicamp. History tells us that.

I could be over-estimating his injury risk, which is about a million times better than under-estimating it. Over-estimate and lose Welker for 6 weeks. Under-estimate and lose him for a year.

Bottom line: I'd rather see him on PUP for six weeks and be sure of his services than to have him for six games and chance losing him for the year.

The fact that Welker is on the field in May and June indicates that the Patriots are sure of his services. History tells us that.

Bottom line is, your re-injury fears are not legitimate. I may not knoq the Patriots' medical evaluation of Welker, but history gives me clues. You are just using other players and the "typical ACL timetable." Which one is more applicable?

The Patriots are very methodical in their approach. Players who've had offseason surgery or injury sit out OTAs and minicamp. Then they often will sit out for the first week or so of training camp. Then, there is usually a day off early in training camp, or the first day back after the first preseason games, which is a "test date," when a lot of injured players tend to return. That's when Rodney returned four years ago, and a bunch of guys last year. You can usually count on it each season.

 

[Ryan]

The only thing I outright disagree with is Ingram not being on the roster. So take off Welch and it looks pretty good to me.

 

[WelshPat]

I would keep Aiken, captain last year so he's a good locker room guy, good ST'er and a good depth WR, put him as a 4th/5th guy where he's more suited and i think he's decent because of his big play ability and run after catch.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

What's with the keeping my man The Crab instead of Woods? Sure, Woods isn't a solid backup LB but he has shown he can play STs. Has The Crab shown anything, STs, LB play? No, not yet. I'd love to see him displace Woods but that's just wishfull thinking.

 

[mgteich]

I have Aiken, Arrington and Woods as our top three special teamers, with Slater as the fourth. I see Slater being pushed out this year.

 

[Ring 6]

What's with the keeping my man The Crab instead of Woods? Sure, Woods isn't a solid backup LB but he has shown he can play STs. Has The Crab shown anything, STs, LB play? No, not yet. I'd love to see him displace Woods but that's just wishfull thinking.

He couldn't have shown anything because he was on IR. Going on IR means you are injured not that you are no good.
The bar set by Woods is quite low. We can all argue whether a guy who gets injured is a poor draft pick, but Crable was drafted in the 3rd round, which indicates those doing the drafting felt he had skills. If he does have the skills of a 3rd round pick and stays healthy he will be a better player than Woods. That may or may not happen, but whehter he has shown it yet is not relevant.

 

[Ring 6]

I have Aiken, Arrington and Woods as our top three special teamers, with Slater as the fourth. I see Slater being pushed out this year.

Arrington is the only one in that group that I think is clearly better than the other candidates for s/t slots. Aiken and Woods, IMO, are very vulnerable, and sts alone wont save their jobs. Slater may have the best shot because of his versatility, able to play both O and D.

 

[jmt57]

Regarding Welker and whether or not he starts the season on the PUP list:

Belichick was asked about this on Patriots All Access a few days ago. These are his exact words: "Hopefully with no setbacks, he'll have an opportunity to get out there and compete at some point this year."

Considering the fact that BB usually has virtually nothing to say about injuries, I thought his response was rather surprising. I would take the 'at some point this year' portion of his answer to mean that as of right now he's not expecting Welker to play week one. Obviously that is still a long ways away and things could change, but as of this moment the most likely scenario is that he starts the season on PUP, in my opinion.

 

[mgteich]

Please compare how many reps each of Aiken, Woods, and Slater have taken in the regular offenses in the past three years. I think that you will find that it is Slater that has the FEWEST reps in the regular offense and defense.

I am not saying that Slater will not beat out Aiken; I just find it unlikely. Aiken is our Special Teams captain and leader. Woods provides solid JAG performance at OLB, much more than most special team specialists.

With normal injuries between now and Game One, I would not be surprised at to see all of our four top special teamers make the 53-man squad. I have three on my roster now.

I would also note that Alexander and Murrell are also top special teamers and will be in the mix in consideration when the final cuts are being made.

Finally, McGowan or Chung both make the team because they contribute on special teams.

Arrington is the only one in that group that I think is clearly better than the other candidates for s/t slots. Aiken and Woods, IMO, are very vulnerable, and sts alone wont save their jobs. Slater may have the best shot because of his versatility, able to play both O and D.

 

[JMarr]

He couldn't have shown anything because he was on IR. Going on IR means you are injured not that you are no good.
The bar set by Woods is quite low. We can all argue whether a guy who gets injured is a poor draft pick, but Crable was drafted in the 3rd round, which indicates those doing the drafting felt he had skills. If he does have the skills of a 3rd round pick and stays healthy he will be a better player than Woods. That may or may not happen, but whehter he has shown it yet is not relevant.

I don't buy that Crable has had anything but very minor injuries that he could have played through.

The fact that they've stashed him on the IR for two years hopefully means that BB still has big plans for him in the defense. Also could explain BB's passing on a very obvious need in the last two drafts. Crable could surprise a lot of people, after having two years to bulk up and learn the Patriots' defensive schemes to a T.

Cunningham will not be ready this year, Woods is the new Eric Alexander and Ninkovich will probably be cut. Prediction: Burgess and Crable (or maybe Spikes by week 5) are your starting OLBs in the 3-4. Add TBC and Guyton to mix and Belichick may be cooking up some real wacky defensive looks this year, including lot of 1-5-5. (Seems he hasn't placed a lot of value on 3-4 DEs the last two years either).

 

[Kontradiction]

Arrington is the only one in that group that I think is clearly better than the other candidates for s/t slots. Aiken and Woods, IMO, are very vulnerable, and sts alone wont save their jobs. Slater may have the best shot because of his versatility, able to play both O and D.

Slater in for a roster fight - Extra Points - Boston.com

Usually in order to be a lock for a position on this team, you have to have an actual locked down position (not to be a starter, mind you) on top of being versatile. Slater can be versatile all he wants, but he's probably not going to win the returner's job anytime soon. On top of that, he doesn't have a natural position on offense or defense, as this article does a good job of highlighting.

I'm not saying that it's a lock that Slater is going to get cut. But Slater is the most vulnerable of all the special teamers we have. Arrington and Aiken, IMO, are the only two "locks" to make the team because of what they bring to special teams.