Breer on Julius Peppers

[RobertWeathers]

BTW, is Peppers really that bad against the run or is he that good against the pass that he doesn't get the credit for his run defense. I remember Colvin's knock was his poor run defense before he came here. He was also a converted DE who never played 3-4 OLB. He was actually pretty good vs. the run for the Pats. Not great, but far more than just adequet.

My impression is that Peppers is slightly below average vs the run. He isn't brutal, but isn't spectacular. I can live with that.

 

[Triumph]

Just digging into his stats more....

Last year, Peppers had 2 picks and 5 forced fumbles. For his career, he has forced 30 fumbles....30. That blows me away.

In the front-7, TBC led the team last year with 2.

Last year, Peppers had 33 QB pressures last year and 46 the year before.

Burgess and TBC had 46 pressures last year COMBINED. Wright led all pure-DLs w/ 14 last year.

The more I think about this, as long as the $$ doesn't crush the team's long-term financial structure, they need to pull a Yankees/Sabathia type of blown-away offer and get 'em.

Peppers would be a Mike Jordan type player on the Pats.

Meaning, everyone around him would play better.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

TBC is marginal to below average at setting the edge but he did seem better this year at doing it than from what I remember in 2006. His strength is plays in space with his quickness and pursuit. Overpowering tackles and guards is something he is simply not good at.

Actually it seemed to me that TBC did a good job of getting in the way on running plays which tells me the instincts are there, but courage is not.

 

[Deus Irae]

BTW, is Peppers really that bad against the run or is he that good against the pass that he doesn't get the credit for his run defense. I remember Colvin's knock was his poor run defense before he came here. He was also a converted DE who never played 3-4 OLB. He was actually pretty good vs. the run for the Pats. Not great, but far more than just adequet.

When the Patriots play the Panthers, the game plan is to run right at Julius Peppers, because he's weak against the run.

 

[Kontradiction]

When the Patriots play the Panthers, the game plan is to run right at Julius Peppers, because he's weak against the run.

If the Patriots sign Peppers, the game plan should be to bring in a DE who is extremely strong against the run.

 

[Triumph]

I dont agree with Breer at all regarding signing Peppers over Wilfork.

First and foremost, you have to stop the run particularly in the middle and thats what Wilfork does. We have seen what happens when the Pats cant stop the run. The whole defense suffers because an offense can do virtually whatever it wants off play action.

I want a player like Peppers so NE finally generates a real pass rush, but if the choice is between Wilfork or Peppers, I stick with Wilfork assuming he doesnt want all the money in the Bank of Boston.

 

[Deus Irae]

Then why the lust for a NT who can't rush the passer and can't play half the downs? The Patriots - unfortunately - traded their best all-around defensive player last season to the Raiders, a guy like Peppers would be closer to a complete player than Wilfork.

1.) You confuse "can't" with "doesn't".

2.) You keep underestimating the impact of an inability to stop the run. Perhaps re-watching the playoff game against the Ravens is in order for you.

3.) I agree that the Seymour trade was a terrible decision by Belichick. Compounding it by allowing a player like Wilfork to leave would be idiotic.

And I'm not convinced Peppers would be a liability against the run here (or that he even is in Carolina, since their D has been so successful with him). If he's playing as a 3-4 OLB, he certainly has the size & length & athleticism to set the edge, no question. If it's a matter of desire/technique, whatever, it could be corrected. He has the physical ability to do it. Whereas a guy like Tully Banta Cain does not have that physical ability and never will, and was a liability against the run last season.

Peppers is weak against the run as a 4-3 DE. That's why the Patriots have targeted him when they've played the Panthers. Now, what he'll do in the 3-4 is open to question. Unfortunately, that's precisely the problem with dropping big coin on him.

As for TBC, he isn't going to be converting over, since he's already done that. And, he isn't going to be costing anything approaching what Peppers would. This defense needs a DE, 2 OLBs, an ILB and maybe a CB, and that's even if Wilfork and Bodden return. On offense, it needs 2 WRs (WR2, WR4), a TE, an OG and, possibly, a RB. It also may need a new punter.

With all those problems, dropping big money on Peppers is a huge gamble.

 

[Prufrock]

3.) I agree that the Seymour trade was a terrible decision by Belichick. Compounding it by allowing a player like Wilfork to leave would be idiotic.

I think it's unfair to say that the Seymour trade was terrible when the Patriots haven't even used the pick they got in return yet. It could potentially end up being a top 5 type elite player that is with the organization for the next 10 years or so, in which case it would be one of the best moves Belichick has ever made... Or it could be another overpaid first round bust. The fact is you don't know yet.

 

[BradyManny]

1.) You confuse "can't" with "doesn't".

2.) You keep underestimating the impact of an inability to stop the run. Perhaps re-watching the playoff game against the Ravens is in order for you.

3.) I agree that the Seymour trade was a terrible decision by Belichick. Compounding it by allowing a player like Wilfork to leave would be idiotic.

1) As I said to DaBruinz - does it matter? Wilfork either has value as a pass rusher in our defense or he doesn't. I could care less if he could rush the passer at the U or if he could do it on another pro team. If we don't have him in our nickel/dime defenses, he's not playing in half the snaps. Period.

2) True, but Wilfork was our starting NT that game.

3) Even if he has to drastically overpay for him? I want Wilfork to stay, don't get me wrong, I just think unless he's willing to take less than he can get on the open market, our best bet is to tag & trade.

 

[Rob0729]

I think it's unfair to say that the Seymour trade was terrible when the Patriots haven't even used the pick they got in return yet. It could potentially end up being a top 5 type elite player that is with the organization for the next 10 years or so, in which case it would be one of the best moves Belichick has ever made... Or it could be another overpaid first round bust. The fact is you don't know yet.

Not to rehash old arguments, but I agree. If that pick turns into an impact, elite, HOF, once-in-a-generation type guy like Brady who can get the Pats another 3 rings, I don't know how you can say it was a terrible trade. Five years from now, it could be considered a Hershall Walker type of trade. It could be a huge disaster for the Pats, but it could make them an elite team into the 2020s.

Personally, I didn't see Seymour on this team in 2010 whether he was traded or not. Odds were that the Pats would only pay either Wilfork or Seymour. Not both.

 

[RobertWeathers]

1) As I said to DaBruinz - does it matter? Wilfork either has value as a pass rusher in our defense or he doesn't. I could care less if he could rush the passer at the U or if he could do it on another pro team. If we don't have him in our nickel/dime defenses, he's not playing in half the snaps. Period.

Wilfork played 65% of the snaps this past year. So his role was significant. Could we get a couple fattys in there to make up the difference in production? Perhaps.

2) True, but Wilfork was our starting NT that game.

Most of the runs went to Seymour's old side. Not sure Wilfork can be faulted there.

3) Even if he has to drastically overpay for him? I want Wilfork to stay, don't get me wrong, I just think unless he's willing to take less than he can get on the open market, our best bet is to tag & trade.

Agreed.

 

[chevss454]

I do think it'll be interesting regarding the financial aspect of it as it relates to the CBA expiring, players share of revenues, etc.). Some owners have been disciplined financially (see Pats and Pitt) whereas others have not (Spanos, Jerry Jones, etc.). I don't think the owners leverage would be compromised if Kraft shelled out the cash for Brady and Peppers.

With no cap, both Peppers & Wilfork could be signed if their deals were front loaded regarding signing bonus money from what I understand. The 2nd year salary would have to be >50% of the first yr. salary and that could be used to get under the cap in 2011. Of course, this would depend on how much money RK is willing to make available for this year.

There are posters here who know much more than I do about this, so a little input please?!

I agree with Patjew...SIGN THE BEASTS!

 

[emoney_33]

Could be true, but ultimately, what's the difference? Does Vince Wilfork offer us any value in our nickel/dime packages or not? The answer is very little, to none. It doesn't matter to the Patriots if Vince Wilfork might be a successful pass rusher for another team in another defensive scheme.

Is Vince Wilfork ever going to close out a big game for us with a clutch sack? Does that mean he's not a valuable player? Of course not. But to me, that absolutely decreases his value to us.

I disagree completely. Pass rush is most effective when you get into passing situations. You cannot get into passing situations unless you stop the run first. A run-stopping NT is always going to be more valuable to this defense than a beastly outside pass rush.

 

[emoney_33]

Not to rehash old arguments, but I agree. If that pick turns into an impact, elite, HOF, once-in-a-generation type guy like Brady who can get the Pats another 3 rings, I don't know how you can say it was a terrible trade. Five years from now, it could be considered a Hershall Walker type of trade. It could be a huge disaster for the Pats, but it could make them an elite team into the 2020s.

Personally, I didn't see Seymour on this team in 2010 whether he was traded or not. Odds were that the Pats would only pay either Wilfork or Seymour. Not both.

I don't understand this logic at all. You cannot judge a trade (or any decision) based on the end result unless you assume the decision was made with a crystal ball. Whether the 2011 first round pick turns out to be a bust or HOF does NOT change whether the decision was right or wrong. It may WORK out better or worse in the end, but that is NOT indicative of the value of the trade when the decision was made.

 

[emoney_33]

1) As I said to DaBruinz - does it matter? Wilfork either has value as a pass rusher in our defense or he doesn't. I could care less if he could rush the passer at the U or if he could do it on another pro team. If we don't have him in our nickel/dime defenses, he's not playing in half the snaps. Period.

What is your fixation on rushing the passer? The NT is the most important position of the 3-4 2-gap defense, but the NT will never be asked to be a dominant pass rusher.

 

[slash83]

I dunno as good as a pass rusher Peppers is Id still have a hard time taking him over Vince. Its hard finding elite NT's especially ones like Vince who are so good off of the field too. I think its easier to find pass rushers that elite NT's.

 

[RobertWeathers]

What is your fixation on rushing the passer? The NT is the most important position of the 3-4 2-gap defense, but the NT will never be asked to be a dominant pass rusher.

Non-Playoff Years and Non CCG Appearances
2008- 30 sacks
2009- 31 sacks
2005- 33 sacks
2002- 33 sacks

SB Years and AFCCC Years
2007-46 sacks
2006-44 sacks
2004-45 sacks
2003-41 sacks
2001-39 sacks

I undestand that a run D is vital in forcing offenses into obvious passing dows but as a whole, an NT and a pass rush are exclusive from one another.

BB played a 4-3 in 2001. He'll do it again if the talent doesn't fit a pure 3-4

 

[emoney_33]

Non-Playoff Years and Non CCG Appearances
2008- 30 sacks
2009- 31 sacks
2005- 33 sacks
2002- 33 sacks

SB Years and AFCCC Years
2007-46 sacks
2006-44 sacks
2004-45 sacks
2003-41 sacks
2001-39 sacks

Now you didn't come out and say it but if you are trying to prove something with those numbers, that is anecdotal evidence at BEST.

I undestand that a run D is vital in forcing offenses into obvious passing dows but as a whole, an NT and a pass rush are exclusive from one another.

I never insinuated they were mutually exclusive, simply that the NT position is MORE vital to the success of a 3-4 2-gap defense. Obviously there is no one single position that can alone make a defense great or even good.

BB played a 4-3 in 2001. He'll do it again if the talent doesn't fit a pure 3-4

But he'll do his best to get the talent for the 3-4 first. That doesn't mean they will overpay for anyone either, but they know where the priorities are.

 

[patsfan-1982]

Non-Playoff Years and Non CCG Appearances
2008- 30 sacks
2009- 31 sacks
2005- 33 sacks
2002- 33 sacks

SB Years and AFCCC Years
2007-46 sacks
2006-44 sacks
2004-45 sacks
2003-41 sacks
2001-39 sacks

I undestand that a run D is vital in forcing offenses into obvious passing dows but as a whole, an NT and a pass rush are exclusive from one another.

BB played a 4-3 in 2001. He'll do it again if the talent doesn't fit a pure 3-4

yes but if you look at dose years the pass rushers stayed the same every year willy mac. vrabel. and colvin where the main pass rushers for all dose years but in the years they had the most sacks ted washington, and wilfork, were the NT's

 

[RobertWeathers]

Now you didn't come out and say it but if you are trying to prove something with those numbers, that is anecdotal evidence at BEST..

I didn't. However I do firmly believe is that the teams which were able to generate a pass rush were better defensive teams than the ones who weren't. With that said, those teams with the 39+ sacks for the most part also had good-supremely good secondarys.

I never insinuated they were mutually exclusive, simply that the NT position is MORE vital to the success of a 3-4 2-gap defense. Obviously there is no one single position that can alone make a defense great or even good.

Agreed. I'd always start with a monster DE/OLB or a shutdown corner but thats me.

But he'll do his best to get the talent for the 3-4 first. That doesn't mean they will overpay for anyone either, but they know where the priorities are.

Of course