Breer breaks down the Seymour trade

[PYPER]

It seems to me that there are legitimate arguments both in favor and against the Seymour trade. There is no right answer.

Has every Belichick move turned into gold? No....obviously not. But I, like most of you I'm sure, have been a fan of this team for a very long time and can remember a time when I got excited by a 6-10 season (1991) that, at the time at least, seemed to indicate that we were close to being playoff contenders (that one didn't work out too well). Anyhow, the point is that while every Belichick move may not turn into gold, the franchise has already done so.

I get the feeling sometimes that some of us feel like the Patriots are entitled to winning the Super Bowl. That anything else is unacceptable and heads must roll. While having high expectations can be a good thing we have to remember to keep them in check or they just might take the joy out of following this team. The 2005, 2006, 2007, and 2008 Patriots weren't failures. They may not have won the SB in any of those years but the team fought and clawed and provided us with four tremendously entertaining seasons.

That's what we've got with Belichick. He's an out-of-the-box thinker. A risk-taker. Sometimes his methods will hit and others, maybe not so much. But at the end of the day the team remains the most consistent team in the league, a legitimate Super Bowl contender. Year after year after year.

So my advice is to stop complaining like a bunch of brats and get on board. The train is leaving with or without you. CHUUUUUU......CHUUUUUUUUU

Now let's go kick some NFL @$$!!!!!

 

[TruthSeeker]

Re: Breer breaksdown the seymour trade

Yup.

In 2006, Belichick did the "right" thing. Had we won the Super Bowl with the deficiency at WR that he left, then there would have been no second guessing. Belichick rolled the dice and lost. Perhaps we would have lost anyway, but looking back and forward from the day Branch left, it seemed a great risk.

And here we are again. In 2009, Belichick is doing the best thing for the future of the patriots. But, make no question, Belichick is again rolling the dice with the 2009 season.

I agree. There are pluses and minuses to this. Whether it works it like 2006 or not is hard to tell.

BTW, I refuse to say the window of opportunity passes us by when Brady and/or Moss are through with football. Clearly it is decisions like this that present more windows of opportunity in the future. It all depends on what the Patriots make of their opportunities.

 

[DarrylS]

Where are all the Seymour is invisible naysayers??, in the past there has been thread after thread about how he is overpaid, overvalued, or over the hilll.. they should be dancing in the streets right about now...

 

[TruthSeeker]

Re: Breer breaksdown the seymour trade

Sorry, it is bad day for the patriots. We have traded one of our very best players because he won't re-sign next year. And for what, the equivalent of a 2009 3rd round draft choice.

Your claim that the Raider's 1st round pick pick in 2011 is equivalent to a 3rd round pick in 2009 is nonsense. Yes, it has been the conventional wisdom to to devalue a pick a round a year. But many teams (and some posters as well) have moved on from that misevaluation to realize that, on average, the #8 pick in the draft is worth about the same whether that pick is made in 1991, 1998, 2003 or 2011.

Yes, teams still demand a premium for giving up this year's pick for next year's equivalent pick. But that's what it is - a premium. In other words, the true value of a particular pick in a draft (say the #11 overall) is about the same each year but teams trade over true value to get it now.

This becomes clearer when people discuss top picks in the draft every year comparing the different years and not thinking "trade value". For example, comparison of the top ten players taken each year for the past 20 years are not uncommon - and yet no one suggests that you should compare the top 10 picks of 2003 with 2nd or 3rd round equivalents in 2005. That's ludicrous - but exactly what you are doing.

If you're still not convinced, you can consider that by April 2011, the pick value will be full first round value (since it really is a first round pick not a third round pick). Just be patient and you can evaluate the trade based on the more realistic first round pick vs. the value of Seymour production in 2009 and a likely 3rd round compensation pick!

 

[JoeShmoe]

I dont really get all the "we are worse off" comments

IF (if if if) BB runs a lot more 4-3, 4-2 and sub packages this year we'll be looking for a pass rush from DE's off the edge. That would be Burgess, Green, even Thomas etc. Seymour is the perfect 3-4 DE, one of the best but if we aint going to use that scheme as often why not cut the losses and get a first for a guy who'll walk next year anyway

Besides if all goes well on offense this year our D will be playing with their eyes closed in the regular season, like in 2007 - and giving all our rookies and new secondary guys time to bed in

Plus if we do use the money saved to sign up Wilfork then its almost a double whammy

 

[GullyFoyle]

Re: Breer breaksdown the seymour trade

No doubt about it. We were so close to the SB in 2006, and any one of several things would probably have made the difference, including Branch at WR. There's no question that we could dearly miss Seymour come January.

Branch was a horrible selfish player who never amounted to crap with the Squawks,our defense is what has been costing us the last 4 years, the old guys and the complacent guys.

 

[GullyFoyle]

Where are all the Seymour is invisible naysayers??, in the past there has been thread after thread about how he is overpaid, overvalued, or over the hilll.. they should be dancing in the streets right about now...

"The hills are alive with the sound of music!"......oh Im sorry did you say something?

 

[Patriot_in_NY]

I dont really get all the "we are worse off" comments

IF (if if if) BB runs a lot more 4-3, 4-2 and sub packages this year we'll be looking for a pass rush from DE's off the edge. That would be Burgess, Green, even Thomas etc. Seymour is the perfect 3-4 DE, one of the best but if we aint going to use that scheme as often why not cut the losses and get a first for a guy who'll walk next year anyway

Besides if all goes well on offense this year our D will be playing with their eyes closed in the regular season, like in 2007 - and giving all our rookies and new secondary guys time to bed in

Plus if we do use the money saved to sign up Wilfork then its almost a double whammy

Finally, someone can see under the curtain. The scheme that's {apparently} being set up clearly changes the completion of WHO we need up front and the focus goes to speed outside. The need for the same front as we have on our 3-4 base is not the same as the 4-3. Bill's gambling that drop between Sey and Jarvis is manageable in the new scheme. Since he knows more about football then I do. I'm willing to give him the benefit of doubt . Besides, I thik Jars will be more valuable in the 4-3 then in the 3-4.

To basically get a {projected} high pick in 2011 is almost a must do deal for a guy you expect to walk after this year anyway. There should be rookie caps in place in for 2011, so a top ten would almost be considered a "value pick" stacked up against the a similar # in 2010 or even 9.

The extra cash, to lock up some of the other 10 FA's is needed $$. Though, I'm not convinced something big for this year is not in the works right now.

 

[MassPats38]

Where are all the Seymour is invisible naysayers??, in the past there has been thread after thread about how he is overpaid, overvalued, or over the hilll.. they should be dancing in the streets right about now...

Having seen that comment quite a bit over the past few years, I, too, was surprised not to see more people here happily dancing over this deal. The whole younger=better crowd.

 

[5 Rings for Brady!!]

Re: Breer breaksdown the seymour trade

In the end, the question is whether we are just a "little" weaker in 2009. That basically argues that Seymour is not an impact player.

We all remember Seymour the animal.

Perhaps, crazy as it seems, Seymour is just a little run down physically and would be better sent to a team that allows him to run around and make sacks instead of taking on blocks directly. It has been a while since I have seen Seymour get a ton of PUSH at the line of scrimmage.

Did anyone consider that maybe BB has already thought about this trade going into the preseason, or do we assume he woke up a couple days ago and decided to try something new for fun.

A first round pick is still a first round pick. We have a lot of DL depth and only BB knows who is ready to step up. A four man DL makes Seymour's role as double team specialist a little less vital.

On the other hand, it would suck if we are one DL short of being a great team, I just don't know if that is really true anymore with Seymour.

I am quite amused by the new Pats front office. Boy do they take care of business quick.

 

[5 Rings for Brady!!]

Where are all the Seymour is invisible naysayers??, in the past there has been thread after thread about how he is overpaid, overvalued, or over the hilll.. they should be dancing in the streets right about now...

Ha. That is what is so great about being a fan, they take all sides of the argument.

I cut Seymour slack for his injuries because he played all messed up for a couple years while people accused him of dogging it. The leadership stuff never bothered me as much as some. Not every player on the team is going to be the pinnacle of locker room leader. Some guys just want to play football y'a know?

Seymour is gone because BB probably thought he can replace him for less money.

There really is no mystery angle here.

 

[bigfandan]

Re: Breer breaksdown the seymour trade

Yes, teams still demand a premium for giving up this year's pick for next year's equivalent pick. But that's what it is - a premium.

Interesting question:
couldn't we get 2010 high #1 pick from Raider and parlay it into 2011 high #1, #3 from somewhere else?
The risk is that we could not trade out and are stuck with that pick. But that rarely happens as most teams act short-term chasing hot prospects. There seems to be a dozen teams with GMs and coaches "must win now" to save their career year after year.

Just a thought.