Branch vs Graham

[JoeSixPat]

How about what BB and Pioli think?

How many picks & FA's have they brought in at TE? How many WR's? It's not even close. They want 3 good TE's on the team, not one, not 2, but three.

as they say on the big show - you're proving my point.

Beoli takes TEs because they are good and they are cheap in the draft - 1st round, 3rd round and elsewhere

WRs are a crapshoot outside of the 1st 2 rounds - and even then there are lots of busts

That leaves the very expensive FA market for WRs - Givens was too expensive and they lucked out with Jackson in the 2nd - but it remains to be seen what they have with him.

So there you have it - TEs - cheap and plentiful in the draft (at least compared to veteran WRs)... no reason to expend $3 mil a season that could go to another position that requires veteran experience.

And to those who say that our rookies are not good enough to start - I say you can't really tell.

Did Graham start games as a rookie? Did Watson (well he was injured early - so maybe count last year as a psuedo rookie season)

The answer is yes - so is it impossible for rookie TEs drafted outside of the 1st round to start? Absolutely not.

 

[DaBruinz]

Abrasive to the end, eh DaBruinz? You might notice that I haven't been one to escalate an argument, whereas I have noticed that you have, in the past, with others.

Since you love to keep directing me to your previous (rude) postings, go back and see if my posts have been factually and rationally based, or if I have 'exagerrated' or ignored things because of 'glaring flaws' in my argument, as you have claimed.

Anyway, I'm done debating you on Daniel Graham. I've said what I wanted to say. We have different opinions and valuations, and I can respect that (can you?).

Maverick -
If you wanted the glee club, you came to the wrong place. This is a place for debates.

The glaring FLAW in your argument was that the O-line will be strong. You make assumptions that Koppen and Light will be back and 100% healthy, yet the reports aren't saying that. You also make the assumption that Light and Koppen will perform similar to how they were performing prior to their being injured. We fans don't know who the LT is. We don't know who the RT is. And we don't know who the center is.

Now, you also, purposely, misquoted me by taking bits and pieces of a post. How is that showing respect? Its not. Just like your exaggeration in the post prior to this one.

 

[DaBruinz]

I guess the issue here is whether he is an upper echelon TE.

He catches 25-35 passes. Drops quite a few as well. Is a MONSTER blocker, but does that put him in the top tier?

And if $2.5 mill is what we're talking about in salary - that's clearly not top tier money.

And if he's not top tier why is he irreplaceable?

JSP -
Graham has dropped 3 passes over the last 2 years. That hardly qualifies as drops quite a few.

Tony Gonzalez led the league 2 years ago with like 14 or 15 dropped passes. And he is a horrible blocker. Yet, he is thrown to almost 170 times.

 

[spacecrime]

as they say on the big show - you're proving my point.

Beoli takes TEs because they are good and they are cheap in the draft - 1st round, 3rd round and elsewhere

So there you have it - TEs - cheap and plentiful in the draft

Totally wrong, sorry.

CHEAP IN THE DRAFT: You don't pay drafted players based on where they line up. You pay them based on where they were selected in the draft. If a player is picked #21, it doesn't matter what position he plays. He is going to make more than the player selected #22, but not as much as the player selected #20, regardless of whether he is a QB or a safety.

PLENTIFUL IN THE DRAFT: There are way more WRs selected in the draft than TEs

BB/SP take a lot of tight ends in the draft because it is harder to get a good TE than it is a good WR, in the draft and in FA. Especially in FA. Think about how many top quality WRs were available as FA's this year, every year. Think about how many top tier TE's were available as FAs...

 

[spacecrime]

Captain Obvious, everyone would love Graham for 1.5, myself included. We have been arguing whether or not to go 2-2.5+. Nobody is expecting Branch to ask for 6-8Mill. Anything around or below 5Mill sounds good to me.

5 mil for Branch is more than he is worht in my mind, but it doesn't matter because no way will he sign for that. It is as unlikely to happen as keeping Graham for 1.5 mil. Ain't gonna happen. These are just silly numbers.

EVERYBODY thinks Branch will be asking for 6-8 mil. Givens got 5 mil. Who thinks that Branch will not ask for more than Givens got?

 

[mgteich]

I wouldn't think that we would be in such massive agreement on this issue. I agree with most; Graham is more important to re-sign.

 

[JoeSixPat]

Totally wrong, sorry.

CHEAP IN THE DRAFT: You don't pay drafted players based on where they line up. You pay them based on where they were selected in the draft. If a player is picked #21, it doesn't matter what position he plays. He is going to make more than the player selected #22, but not as much as the player selected #20, regardless of whether he is a QB or a safety.

PLENTIFUL IN THE DRAFT: There are way more WRs selected in the draft than TEs

BB/SP take a lot of tight ends in the draft because it is harder to get a good TE than it is a good WR, in the draft and in FA. Especially in FA. Think about how many top quality WRs were available as FA's this year, every year. Think about how many top tier TE's were available as FAs...

I think you're missing the point. We've drafted more than a few TEs in recent drafts. Graham himself is at the top of his earnings thus far now making, what, $1.5 million this season?

So which is more cost effective. Drafted TEs or paying FA prices? And if its smarter to sign FA TEs why is BB drafting them?

By the way - on the point of more WRs being drafted than TEs - thats largely in part because so many of the later pick WRs are busts - you need to draft quantity to find any quality... and I showed the stats to prove that as well. Unlike TEs, WRs are a top heavy draft position - i.e. less value in later rounds - at which point you go for volume in the hopes of turning up a gem. So FA, rather than the draft - is a better place for finding WRs.. sadly the supply and demand issue makes them more costly.

And since we've now established - through a number of statistics and examples - that there's value at TE throughout the draft (unlike, for instance WR) BB could continue his trend of finding value at TE, paying them $1 mil on average - or could diverge from that and start a trend of paying them $3 mil a season.

Now if Graham were the second coming of Ben Coates - or even half as good as him - I'd be all for spending gobs of money on him. But for a 2nd tier blocking TE (and all of you who say you want to pay him only $2.5 mil are effectively admitting he's 2nd tier) who I recall dropping more than a few key passes on key plays - I'm fine letting him walk at the end of this season.

And as far as having Seymour, Vrabel, Klecko and who knows who else play TE on goal line situations - for blocking or pass catching - its not so rare its a trick play - nor would anyone be rediculous enough to assert anyone is saying its common place.

But it is common enough that Mike Vrabel had as many TD receptions as Daniel Graham did last year (3)

Of course the story that BB intends on letting him walk at the end of the season is what prompted speculation as to whether it makes sense to trade him.

I guess we'll find out eventually, won't we... a lot depends on Graham's perception of his talent and worth. Will he demand to be re-signed at the price of a top tier 1st round drafted TE? Or will he recognize his value as a 2nd tier TE.

So let's see if there's a real effort to re-sign Graham past next year or if he's allowed to walk - and if he's not so big a priority that they just let him walk I think its worthwhile to question whether it makes, or would have made sense - to get something of value for him in return.

 

[dryheat44]

On multi topics brought up.

First of all, I appreciate some football debate concerning guys who are actually on the team, so thanks to everybody.

First...I believe JSP

By the way - I think Adam V. and Graham are an apples and oranges comparison.

I can't think of better things to compare. I mean, they're both roughly spherical, they grow on trees, they provide nourishment, they are the fruit of a tree, they both have seeds. I mean face it, they have a lot more similarities than they do differences. Now if you said "... are an apples and pencil sharpeners comparison", it would make more sense. Okay, enough silliness.

Next up

) Ben Coates - Round 5
B) Shannon Sharpe - Round 7
C) Antonio Gates - UDFA
D) Marv Cook - Round 3

Are you actually putting Marv Cook on a list of best tight ends in recent history? Sharpe and Coates played for tiny schools, and Gates didn't play at all. Plus the game's changed. I provided you a list of TE starters currently in the NFL, and the vast majority of starting caliber TEs are drafted in the first round. But I still can't get over Marv Cook's inclusion on your list. Really made my morning.

And Garrett Mills, I doubt highly, will ever line up on the line of scrimmage as a tight end and be in position to block a DE or OLB head-up. I don't think we can think of him as playing a similar position as Graham, Watson, and Thomas.

And back to Joe...

TEs - cheap and plentiful in the draft (at least compared to veteran WRs)... no reason to expend $3 mil a season that could go to another position that requires veteran experience.

I don't understand your point. WRs are more plentiful in the draft, and cheap. We're not interested in just a tight end, we're interested in a starting caliber, top 15 (at least) tight end. Those are first round guys. Or say maybe top 40 picks. With the exception of Gates and Witten, who slipped in the draft due to injury, all the premiere TEs in the league were first rounders. The game has changed enough where they're a greater priority than they used to be.

 

[Mainefan]

My vote, for what it's worth: Sign Graham first. He is integral to the success of many plays. As for catching, he did have dropitis in his first season, but has gotten significantly better. His blocking talents are rare.

Branch is very good, but not rare. The best thing about him is that he has proven himself. Any new receiver obtained in the draft would be a question mark. But veteran receivers--many of whom would be available and the right price--also have proven talent.

If need be, then, we could go out and buy the receiver we need. But there are few, if any, other Grahams out there, floating around, waiting to be signed up or traded for.

 

[maverick4]

re

If need be, then, we could go out and buy the receiver we need. But there are few, if any, other Grahams out there, floating around, waiting to be signed up or traded for.

Don't we have a guy named Watson on our team?

 

[mgteich]

Tight ends are not "cheap" in the draft. We needed to use a 1st and a 3rd, a 1st,and a 3rd for our current complement. We should understand that the cost is what the the draft choice is worth plus the compensation given the player. For example, we could have paid more compensation by trading a 1st fro a veteran instead of drafting Watson. That does not make Watson cheap. We simply used a valuable pick and used less cap money.

The other implication is that TE's are "cheap" because they do not become busts like WR's. I agree that Wr's bust out more often, but bb has had more than his share of TE busts.
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BTW, we could easily afford to pay Graham $3M a year and Branch $6M. The question is whether they would take these amounts and whether the pats would maek the offer.

 

[Brownfan80]

Call me crazy, but I think having BOTH Graham -and- Branch back would be "tight"...

 

[Tyler Faith]

I can't answer all your questions on this but the overall question of Branch vs. Graham is a pretty tough call. Branch is awesome when he's on his game but in the beginning of last year a bunch of us were getting frustrated with easy drops, poor routes, etc. In fact, I can't remember which game it was but he was so inefficient, we started calling him TWIG, he didn't deserve to be a BRANCH. "C'mon Twig, hold on to the damn ball!" As the season went on though, his true talent did surface again and make a tough argument over letting him go, even at a high price.

I hate the days of money decisions!!

 

[dryheat44]

Don't we have a guy named Watson on our team?

We do at that. A good one. But that's rather like justifying getting rid of Dillon because we have Faulk on the roster.

Two players that are valuable to the team, they have the same position designation, but they don't provide the same service.

I think this is the primary source of our disagreement. I don't see Watson as Graham's backup. (Or Graham as Watsons). To me, that's like saying Mankins is Neals' backup. Watson and Graham are usually both going to be on the field.

 

[maverick4]

re

We do at that. A good one. But that's rather like justifying getting rid of Dillon because we have Faulk on the roster.

Two players that are valuable to the team, they have the same position designation, but they don't provide the same service.

I think this is the primary source of our disagreement. I don't see Watson as Graham's backup. (Or Graham as Watsons). To me, that's like saying Mankins is Neals' backup. Watson and Graham are usually both going to be on the field.

Aha!! This is why we've had so much disagreement. See, I don't really buy that the 2-TE set will be our base offense with Watson and Graham. I think the Pats will be similar to the Washington Redskins, by using a combination of Watson/Graham and Thomas/Mills. Mills and Thomas will technically be tight ends, but will be a lot like H-Backs with a lot of movement on the line (think Chris Cooley).

I see this argument as very similar to what will happen when Dillon is in the last year of his contract. We will still have Maroney, who was also a 1st round pick, so it wouldn't make sense to re-sign Dillon.

 

[Flying Fungi]

Aha!! This is why we've had so much disagreement. See, I don't really buy that the 2-TE set will be our base offense with Watson and Graham. I think the Pats will be similar to the Washington Redskins, by using a combination of Watson/Graham and Thomas/Mills. Mills and Thomas will technically be tight ends, but will be a lot like H-Backs with a lot of movement on the line (think Chris Cooley).

I see this argument as very similar to what will happen when Dillon is in the last year of his contract. We will still have Maroney, who was also a 1st round pick, so it wouldn't make sense to re-sign Dillon.

so you would take playing time away from Watson and Graham to get the 2 rookies on the field more often?

intriguing...

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

I can't answer all your questions on this but the overall question of Branch vs. Graham is a pretty tough call. Branch is awesome when he's on his game but in the beginning of last year a bunch of us were getting frustrated with easy drops, poor routes, etc. In fact, I can't remember which game it was but he was so inefficient, we started calling him TWIG, he didn't deserve to be a BRANCH. "C'mon Twig, hold on to the damn ball!" As the season went on though, his true talent did surface again and make a tough argument over letting him go, even at a high price.

Great minds think alike.
I believe it was I who coined the name 'The Twig' for Branch his rookie season, possibly during training camp. First posted it on USENET and on the Patriots Mailing List. Don't remember hm droping the ball too much - that was Daniel 'Hands of Stone' Graham that rookie season. Branch was awesome in camp and did well as a rook.

 

[dryheat44]

I see this argument as very similar to what will happen when Dillon is in the last year of his contract. We will still have Maroney, who was also a 1st round pick, so it wouldn't make sense to re-sign Dillon.

Do we have to wait?

Dillon is on his last legs. I would cut him next season unless he agrees to a re-structure to backup money. He can come in to spell Maroney.

Of course, this assumes Maroney turns into a productive player at some point this season and avoids serious injury.

 

[Mike the Brit]

But I'd rather have a 40 catch, dominant blocking TE on my team than a 90 catch, no blocking one.

What he said!:agree:

Graham started off dropping a lot of balls. Now he is very good at catching them when thrown to -- and running after the catch (was it against Carolina where he hurdled Neal on the way to the end zone?)

But when the O-line needed extra help after Light's injury, he stayed in to block with no complaints. If he's somewhat prone to shoulder injuries, it's because he always puts his body on the line.

 

[JoeSixPat]

I think there are a few things that are influencing my view of this....

After we drafted Graham, very few people expected us to use a #1 pick the next year on Watson - though once we caught a glimpse of him we recognized his value - and the value of two TE sets - though it had already become clear that Graham's pass catching left a lot to be desired.

This year with 2 high round choices signed, how many people - especially after taking 2 offensive players in the 1st 2 rounds - were expecting that we'd make TE a priority over our defensive needs?

I'm guessing very few again. And even fewer expected another TE to be taken in the 4th round.

What kind of message is this sending?.... and don't give me the "best player available" mantra... there are a great many people out there who logicially look at this as BB preparing for life without Graham...

BB hasn't taken the podium and said so but his actions - and some published reports - indicated that there's a strong possibility Graham won't be back.

Is Graham a valuable player? Yes - especially under his rookie contract.

Do we expect Graham - as a former 1st round pick - will demand a raise? You bet!

So what would you pay Graham? Is he a top tier TE? Does he THINK he should be paid like a former #1 pick.

I don't think he's quite that good - I think he's worth about $2 mil a year to this team tops - and I think Graham's perception of his worth is much higher than that.

If Graham is reasonable about his worth as an excellent blocker and mediocre pass catcher than there shouldn't be a problem re-signing him... but if there's a disconnect I guess we'll find out where BB comes down in this debate.

My prediction is that the offseason moves strongly suggest that Graham is not with the team next year... that BB does not expect Graham to accept the amount of $ that is commiserate with his value for Graham - and that he can save a good chunk of change assuming at least one of our two rookie TEs shows potential (I think Thomas is already there).