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Branch vs Caldwell's 2006 Stats .. Wow !

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by MooseKnuckles, Dec 31, 2006.

  1. MooseKnuckles

    MooseKnuckles Rookie

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    Branch in 2006
    REC YDS TD
    53 725 4

    Caldwell in 2006
    REC YDS TD
    61 760 4

    Caldwell did play in 2 more games than Branch, but Rache only put up 10/118/0 in his first 5 games.

    Hey .. I'm just sayin
  2. MoLewisrocks

    MoLewisrocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Reche got to play with Tom Brady and be his #1 if he chose to step up. Branch played with Hasselback and Wallace and an injured Hasselback along side 2 established WR's and a WR picked up in the offseason who had a whole camp with the team.

    Just sayin... and like BB says it's not what you do in some other system, it's what you do in this system.

    That said, after a rough couple of games in which he was nearly MIA, Reche had a nice day today.
  3. PATRIOTS-80

    PATRIOTS-80 Rookie

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    An interesting comparison is that of Reche vs. Givens. I believe BB/SP adequately replaced Given's production.

    Reche..............Givens
    61 catches........59 catches
    760 yards.........738 yards
    4 TDs...............2 TD
    12.5 yard avg...12.5 yard avg

    Here a petition to extend Reche Caldwell's contract!
    Last edited: Dec 31, 2006
  4. Kasmir

    Kasmir Rookie

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    Final stats not collated, but Caldwell also had more first downs, more receptions over 20 yards, and more receptions over 40 yards than Givens had last year.

    And the consensus around the league is that Brady has had an off year. If Brady returns to 2003/4 form and we pair Caldwell with another decent receiver or two, his total production might or might not be up, but he surely would be even more productive on a per play basis.

    He will likely never be as productive as Branch was here, but Caldwell is a solid #2 and could be a great #3.

    The problem this year's WR game has been (a) loss of Branch, (b) disruption from simultaneously losing Givens, (c) Brady's mysterious problems. Not Reche Caldwell.

    Caldwell has been by far the best WR free agent we've brought in here in the 7 Belichick years, with the arguable exception of David Patten.

    Ignore the stats say if you must. You have to be blinded by your anger at the front office not to have seen this with your own eyes.

    The skeptics will now say wait for the playoffs, but with all the abuse heaped on Caldwell this year, it's about time he got his props for what he's already contributed. If Chad Jackson had exactly the same year as Caldwell has had he'd be lionized.
    Last edited: Jan 1, 2007
  5. old 55

    old 55 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I have to give Caldwell a great deal of credit because he looked like crap in preseason.

    He obviously has worked hard and has contributed well throughout the year with the exception of a couple of no show games. But the same can be said of the entire team since we have seen some very uncharacteristic performances this year.

    Lets hope CJ is working hard to get better too. A veteran WR might be nice in the offseason too. Maybe one with some height too.
  6. SoonerPatriot

    SoonerPatriot Rookie

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    I'm thrilled with Caldwell. But I wouldn't read too much into Branch's numbers. He played 2 less games. If Branch had chosen to return to the Pats he would have solid numbers.
  7. rabthepat

    rabthepat Rookie

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    Don't forget Branch's $6,000,000+ per year contract. Reche only makes 10% of that.
  8. Sean Pa Patriot

    Sean Pa Patriot Rookie

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    Caldwell was ok, he might have been even better if Branch was here.. We have to still get another WR next yr ..
  9. Fixit

    Fixit Rookie

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    "Okay?" Man, you're a tough grader. Caldwell exceeded everyone's expectations. Not just his numbers, which are very respectable, but his effort, which I saw from the beginning of the season. Coming back to balls, taking hits, blocking...I've become a fan of his, especially since he shut his eyelids a little more. :D
  10. shmessy

    shmessy Maude Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    For the Patriots, Caldwell was the player that most stepped up and exceeded expectations this year. I can't think of one other player who exceeded expectations as much as he did.

    Caldwell was brought in a Givens' substitute (not Branch's) this year and nobody (I admit I didn't) believed he was a decent sub for Givens.

    In his first season with Brady he matched Givens' production in his best of four seasons with Brady. And he did it at 10% of Givens' cost this year.

    On top of that, he took the most hellacious hit I've ever seen a WR take in the NFL.......and he came right back up and didn't lose his nerve.

    Thanks for a great year Reche!
  11. Digger44

    Digger44 Rookie

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    I guess I just cannot understand where you are coming from. Reche deserves major props for coming this far, however I don't know where you are getting that the league consensus is that Brady is having an off year. In fact, it is just the opposite. The consensus was that he should not have been snubbed for the ProBowl. The majority of media outlets, espn, foxsports, nesn, si, cbs sportsline, all talk about our poor WRs. The offensive problems are no mystery. Just listen to what the major media is saying and not silly Boston sports radio. For most of the season the WRs have not picked up the timing or the routes. Brady throws to a particular spot and expects the WR to be there. For much of the season they have not been there. Reche has come around to the new system and is doing very well.

    The comparrison of Reche to Dieon is ridiculous. You need to look past the stats and get a grip on the actual situations.
  12. Scott37

    Scott37 Rookie

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    IMO Brady didn't have the deep threat this year, hence lower yards per attempt, yards, and less plays of over 20+ yards than in '05. This team needs to have a deep threat - a burner who will keep defenses honest and open up the middle for the tight ends. This will also help the running game. The numbers:

    2005 #1 & #2
    Branch 78 - 998 - 5 TD
    Givens 59 - 738 - 2 TD

    2006 #1 & #2
    Caldwell 61 - 760 - 4 TD
    Watson 49 - 643 - 3 TD


    Brady att comp perc yds ypa td int 20+ 40+ rate
    2005 530 334 63.0 4110 7.75 26 14 59 9 92.3
    2006 516 319 61.8 3529 6.84 24 12 46 8 87.9
  13. Kasmir

    Kasmir Rookie

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    Read more carefully. I've consistently compared Caldwell to Givens, never to Branch.

    I don't live in the Boston area; I suspect it's you that needs to get some outside perspective. Read some non-Boston media; pay attention to non-Boston fans. Ponder why it is that players and coaches didn't vote for Brady this year. Look at your own sig line. Use your own eyes. Brady is off this year. His accuracy isn't what it was 2 years ago. Sure his WR's aren't a great group, but he's sometimes missing them when they are wide open. He's not hitting them in stride as much as he did in the past. He's not quite himself. Still very good, but not Brady great.

    To be clear: I believe the bulk of the fall off in the passing game productivity is because we lost Branch and didn't replace him. It would be convenient to stop there, but it also appears that Brady's contribution is down a bit this year as well, as evidenced by slightly reduced accuracy.

    I'm not the only one on this board who who feels that way.

    I've actually not posted any statistical analysis about Brady's year. Nor will I. I only came to the defense of Caldwell when what I saw on the field didn't support the scathing attacks on him in this forum. When I looked, stats supported what I observed, so I posted them. I wrote a while ago that Caldwell looked like a decent replacement for Givens. Period. That irritated some here who wanted to blame the front office for all the problems the passing game has had this year.

    But perhaps you believe that Brady can do no wrong? That he can never have a down year, only up years? That he gets full credit for all success, but is immune from any criticism? If so, I'm certainly not going to argue with you.

    I think Brady's great, but he's only human. It looks to me that he's not having a great year by his standards. Some of the responsibility is his. Sorry if you find that thought offensive.
    Last edited: Jan 1, 2007
  14. MooseKnuckles

    MooseKnuckles Rookie

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    What is Brady going to do with a deep threat ? It’s not like he has a good deep ball. All the talk about how he was making that improvement a #1 priority in the off season, was just that... talk. I'm sure there will be many on this board who suggest that it's not Brady's fault { it never is ; ) } and that he has NO deep threats. Gaffney, CJ and Caldwell all have speed .. Brady hit a few in yesterday's game, but that is the worst part of his game. BB and Co. would rather have a possession WR and play to his strengths.
  15. Scott37

    Scott37 Rookie

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    I'm talking about the kind of breakaway speed off the line that allows Brady to hit a receiver in stride and get big YAC numbers. It seems to me that we haven't seen that type of play this year - am i wrong?
  16. MooseKnuckles

    MooseKnuckles Rookie

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    Right on !! .. Brady is the best thing that happend to Pats football. However, he has become "Ditka - like" by many.

    Patsfans Board goon #1: Now, gentlemen, let me ask you this: What if the Pats had 11 mini Brady's for the game vs the Jets and they were all 14 inches tall. Now, what would you predict the score to be?

    Patsfans Board goon #2 : Against Da Jets?

    Patsfans Board goon #1: Yes, give me a handicap.

    Patsfans Board goon #2 : Pats 20, Jets 13. And that would finally be a good game.

    Patsfans Board goon #3: Yeah, it would be a good game. Mini Brady's 20, Jets 13.

    Miss those SNL skits ..
  17. Fixit

    Fixit Rookie

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    "Tom Brady vs. a hurricane."

    "Brady!"

    "Ah, but the hurricane is named Tom Brady..."
    Last edited: Jan 1, 2007
  18. Patsfanin Philly

    Patsfanin Philly Rookie

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    att comp % yds TD INT Rating
    Brady 2006 516 319 61.8 3529 24 12 87.9
    Brady career average 510.7 316 61.9 3594 24.5 13 88.4
    I divided the career totals by 6. Granted he didn't play all 16 games in
    2001 (14+games) but it was close enough.
    While it may have appeared that he was overthrowing receivers or was not as accurate, his numbers for 2006 pretty much mirror his career. Maybe we've gotten spoiled over the last six years, but considering that this is probaly his least talented receiving corps, it's pretty impressive by TB standards. For many of the low throws, I can think of a few drops on the WR's part...
    Just my $0.02,
    Last edited: Jan 1, 2007
  19. Kasmir

    Kasmir Rookie

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    What Branch was great at was acceleration out of his cuts to get temporary separation, and Brady has traditionally been great at getting the ball to him at exactly the right place at the right time. As Montana did, Brady creates a lot of YAC with his accuracy in leading the receiver in stride.

    While I think Branch is much better at getting separation than any wide receiver we've had here since Terry Glenn, he's no burner, and I don't think he'll ever have as good years with Hasselbeck as he had with Brady. He needs a super accurate QB to showcase his skills.

    No question misses Branch's superior quickness, but we've all seen Brady missing a surprising number of throws this year. His game relies on timing and pinpoint accuracy. He lost the timing when Branch and Givens left, some of it back with Caldwell, but his accuracy still seems a little off.
  20. MoLewisrocks

    MoLewisrocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Caldwell played well yesterday, really stepped up. But he was seriously MIA for the two preceding games. He's been up and down, but hopefully yesterday he finally turned a corner. We'll know soon enough if he performs as well consistently in the playoffs as Given always did, although if not I fully expect some here to point the finger at Brady even though the stats when taken in context including the entire performance circumstances will belie that.

    Carson Palmer made the pro bowl although his team didn't make the playoffs. What part his December swoon (56% completion rate, 77 passer rating, 6TD to 5 INTS + 5 fumbles) played in that collapse is debatable I guess given his pro bowl weaponry vs. a dysfunctional organization. He's a better pure passer than Brady, as is Manning and as was Marino over Montana. But the selection isn't for pro bowl passer, it's pro bowl QB. Brady down the stretch with his top TE and defacto #1 receiver and rookie RB sidelined for much of the month competed 66%, compiled a 90 passer rating, 4TD/1 Int/3 fumbles and his team won 12 games under duress in a tougher division in the same conference. Yet he didn't make the cut for the beauty contest. Go figure. I guess it's a combination of not matching up well enough against flash (vs. Manning and Palmer) and too much boring, plodding consistency (vs. Rivers and Palmer). It's that consistency that leads BB to periodically remind us there is no other QB he would rather have leading this team.

    Take away a couple of perenial pro bowl weapons from any of those 2006 Pro Bowl QB's and I guarantee you their passer rating plummets to something south of what Brady has consistently maintained without ever having any. Which is also why he already has 3 rings and they and their teams despite impressive offensive production statistics and gaudy passer ratings don't have any.


    Passing
    Year Team G GS Att Comp Pct Yds YPA Lg TD Int Tkld 20+ 40+ Rate

    2001 NE15 14 413 264 63.9 2843 6.88 91 18 12 41/216 32 6 86.5
    2002 NE 16 16 601 373 62.1 3764 6.26 49 28 14 31/190 37 3 85.7
    2003 NE 16 16 527 317 60.2 3620 6.87 82 23 12 32/219 44 8 85.9
    2004 NE 16 16 474 288 60.8 3692 7.79 50 28 14 26/162 52 10 92.6
    2005 NE 16 16 530 334 63.0 4110 7.75 71 26 14 26/188 59 9 92.3
    2006 NE 16 16 516 319 61.8 3529 6.84 62 24 12 26/175 46 8 87.9

    TOTAL 96 94 3064 1896 61.9 21564 7.04 91 147 78 182/1150 270 44 88.4

    Third best completion percentage of his career, behind the glory years of a back to back SB Champion WR corps anchored by Branch and Givens (2003 and 2004). Slightly below his 2005 performance with them in a pass first by necessity (because we had no running game to speak of) offense, although his TD to INT ratio was off in '05 by his preferred 2 to 1 standards. Brady's never been about flash and awe, rather substance and consistency including particularly in the face of adversity. Nobody's perfect, which is why Belichick will take the guy who delivers most with the least most consistently.
  21. jct

    jct Rookie

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    Wow!
    Impressive post.
    If/When we win it all AGAIN this year you would think the folks who selected other guys for the Pro Bowl would see the errors of their ways. (I won't hold my breath).
  22. Kdo5

    Kdo5 Rookie

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    Well I certainly know he is not a #1 reciever but after this year, Reche was pushed to be Brady's top WR when he definitley wasnt expecting it I bet when he first came here. But I dont think he is a #3 reciever. As a Patriot he is a true #2 Wide Reciever. A #4 WR is what Caldwell should be if you look back at his San Diego days. But his leap this year (33 more catches than his previous career high), he is a good #2 reciever IMO.

    I must say if any QB could lead his team to a 12-4 record with one of the(I hate to say worst) least popular recieving cores in the NFL, it certainly would be Brady. And he did awesome.

    Imagine this...

    Manning: Caldwell, Brown, Gaffney & Jackson as his recievers.

    Palmer: same, Pats recievers.

    They would have below average seasons. Neither would be in the probowl.
    Last edited: Jan 1, 2007
  23. Kasmir

    Kasmir Rookie

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    I confess you're annoying me with your terrible ad hominem guesses (I don't follow baseball). You're not impressing me with your acumen by such wild speculation, and all it does is suggest to me that you draw conclusions speculatively and wishfully. I suggest you drop the ad hominem crap.

    Faint praise. Caldwell's produced all year. That was his second 100+ yard game. Most of the year he's been possession receiver (most first downs catches on the team), and folks were deriding him for not going deep. He had 61 receptions, 760 yards, 4 touchdowns, 11 20+ receptions, 3 40+ receptions, and 41 first downs. Every one of those numbers was better than Givens last year. Caldwell didn't do all of that in the last game. Are you seriously arguing that Givens was somehow more consistent? Sounds like more wishful speculation.

    Again, what I believe: Branch is an average #1 receiver (at least I assume he'll get back to that level next year). Caldwell is an average #2 receiver. Givens is an average #2 receiver. Givens was replaced by Caldwell. Branch hasn't yet been replaced.

    I think you're getting a bit ahead of yourself in the playoffs. Why worry about assigning blame before we even play a game?

    I don't think much of the Pro Bowl selection process in any year. It's a tri-partite popularity contest. The only point I was making was that this year, even though Brady remained a fan favorite, the players and coaches didn't vote for him. Presumably they're somewhat knowledgeable about the game, perhaps even more so than the fans. Why aren't they buying your argument that Brady is having an all-Pro year despite his miserable supporting cast?

    Perhaps. Some might say add Belichick's defenses contributed to those 3 rings, too. And perhaps Corey Dillon's career year in 2004 might even have helped Brady's career year. The Belioli hypothesis has been that raw WR talent is overrated, and that a great QB in a sound system can elevate the play of the WR's. They won three superbowls with mediocre to average wide receiver talent. Patten's disappearance at Washington and Branch's mediocre year in Seattle do nothing to disprove that, nor does Caldwell's career year here. Maybe Givens will find himself with Vince Young next year in Tennessee, but I think he's at least as likely to be a cap casualty.

    I don't much care for NFL passing ratings I think the FO system is much better thought through, but both systems agree that this is Brady's third best year. 2004 was by far his best year (2nd ranked 41.6% DVOA), 2005 2nd (4th ranked 30.9%), and this year 3rd best going into Sunday's game (9th ranked 18.8%).

    One of the things that the FO folks warn about is that it is very difficult to separate performance of quarterbacks from receivers, including TE's and backs of course. The Brady apologists suggest that pro-bowl voters should give some credit to Brady for losing his two starting wide receivers and still delivering decent production. But unbiased observers will notice that Caldwell replaced Givens, and Brady's running back group this year is the best he's ever had -- and excuses can be made for almost everyone in the league. It's not surprising that voters go for actual impact, not impact adjusted for hypotheticals.

    I personally believe that if Branch had stayed, Brady would very likely had the numbers to make the pro-bowl again. Caldwell easily offset Givens, and the running back position was upgraded by Maroney and a healthy Dillon with Faulk. The continuity and new talent would have offset the accuracy problems that have been visible this year.

    And Brady is still supreme in his pocket presence, his ability to read defenses, his leadership, his competitiveness, and his clutch abilities. I wouldn't be the least surprised to see him once again elevate everyone's game in the playoffs.
  24. Kasmir

    Kasmir Rookie

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    Much as I despise Manning and the Colts, he's been other-worldly these last few years. Truly great quarterbacks can elevate the receivers around them. Of course Manning's numbers would suffer, but his performance is so extraordinary that it's purely speculative to claim that he would do no better than Brady with Brady's receivers.

    Brady is a sure Hall-of-Fame QB. So is Manning. Who will be ultimately judged the best depends on what goes down the next 7-10 years. They're still writing their legends. It's a Dimaggio/Williams argument. Except this time we get to be the Yankees :)

    BTW, what most folks around the league would say is: imagine this... Peyton Manning with Belichick's defense.

    I haven't seen enough of Palmer, Johnson, and Houshmandzadeh to have an opinion. I'm hardly ready to reserve a place in Canton yet for Carson Palmer.
    Last edited: Jan 1, 2007
  25. nescott

    nescott PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Yes a great signing and shows just how Branch worked in the right system but, we got a number 1 and Caldwell should be rewarded I think long term he fits like David Patton did great job in 06 Caldwell!!
  26. PatsFanSince74

    PatsFanSince74 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Thanks for the analysis. Kind of stunning, even if you discount it a bit because Matt was injured. Thanks again.
  27. spacecrime

    spacecrime Rookie

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    Agree that Branch is every bit as good as Caldwell. If Branch had played every game, his stats would match Caldwell's.

    Still, maybe Branch was key to Seattle's winning 9-7 season. The Seahawks are the first SB loser to make it back to the playoffs the following year. (Of course, without the refs, Seattle would have WON the SB, and the Steelers would (should) be the SB loser, and they continue the tradition,)

    I just wonder about the comparison when $$$ enter the equation. Branch is getting a LOT of money for middle-of-the-WR-pack performance.

    I'm looking forward to the draft and having the Seahawk's pick. Don't think we'll pick a WR with it, though, do you?
  28. pats63

    pats63 Rookie

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    Caldwell is a very good pick up for the pats......Wondering if there will be contract ext. for him.....Just wait for next year when our recievers have year under their belt,expect Mr. Patriot......GO PATS!!!!!:rocker:
  29. MooseKnuckles

    MooseKnuckles Rookie

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    Thanks to MoLewisRocks and Kasmir for the great posts on this thread .. I'm glad this subject got some legs.

    If you look at the names on the UFA list for 2007 at WR .. well , its very very thin. When Drew Bennett leads the list you know its a down year. I do remember the Pats making a big push for D. Mason and that would have been a great pick-up. Although, unless CJ steps up or BB and Piloi get very lucky with a Rookie WR in next yr's draft we will likely have the same WR's out there. (Brown, C Jackson, Caldwell, Gaffney)

    Which one of these cats is the next Rache Caldwell ?

    I like Bobby Engram actually... he would fit the mold perfectly. Calico is another interesting name.

    Free Agent Wide Receivers in 2007:

    Drew Bennett, UFA, Tennesee Titians
    Kevin Curtis, UFA, St. Louis Rams
    Patrick Crayton, RFA, Dallas Cowboys
    Marc Boerigter, UFA, Green Bay Packers
    David Boston, UFA, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
    Tyrone Calico, UFA, Tennessee Titans
    Andre' Davis, UFA, Buffalo Bills
    Bobby Engram, UFA, Seattle Seahawks
    Justin Gage, UFA, Chicago Bears
    D.J. Hackett, RFA, Seattle Seahawks
    Keenan McCardell, UFA, San Diego Chargers
    Shaun McDonald, UFA, St. Louis Rams
    Samie Parker, RFA, Kansas City Chiefs
    Jerome Pathon, UFA, Atlanta Falcons
    Willie Ponder, UFA, New York Giants
    Edell Shepherd, RFA, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
    Travis Taylor, UFA, Minnesota Vikings
    Scottie Vines, RFA, Detroit Lions
    Bobby Wade, UFA, Tennessee Titans
    Peter Warrick, UFA, Seattle Seahawks
    Kelley Washington, UFA, Cincinnati Bengals
    Alvis Whitted, UFA, Oakland Raiders
    Ernest Wilford, RFA, Jacksonville Jaguars

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