Branch is a true #1

[JoeSixPat]

Everyone wants to sign Branch for reasonable money. I presume that means at a discount from the market.

Q1 Do we think that Mason is better than Branch (or even was)?

Q2 Do we believe that we should offer Mason type money, escalated to post CBA money to Branch?

Q3 Do we think Branch is better than Givens?

Q4 How much more than Givens money do you think Branch will get in 2007 if he waits? What's your guess? The team and Branch will need to guess.

Q5 Should the pats offer more than that now or about the same to get him to sign, or should they not come close to those numbers?

Given the above, what do you think the team WILL do?

1. Yes - Mason is by far the better proven #1 WR. We're talking about Branch's potential... and whether to pay a potential #1 WR as a proven #1 WR.

2. God - I don't even want to THINK of what Derrick Mason a la 2004 would have commanded in the post new CBA drunken sailor spending spree. Absolutely not... we're LUCKY Branch isn't currently in the same league as Mason was, otherwise there'd be no bargaining room for signing a potential #1 WR for reasonable money.

3. Yes - Branch is better than Givens. But the Patriots won't use a crazy, overpaid contract as the starting point for their negotiations with Branch.

4. No idea what Branch will be worth next year. Its a gamble for him - another year under his belt with #1 numbers might be the best thing for him. Otherwise he needs to accept a much more reasonable offer.

5. The Pats will offer him less money now than they would expect the going market rate of a #1 WR in Free Agency to be. That's Football Finance 101. Both sides are taking risks. Branch wants the added security and increased salary of a new deal. The Patriots want to lock up a guy who COULD be a long term #1 WR at a reasonable salary.

Branch, by not agreeing to a reasonable re-signing is risking injury or a sub par season entering FA.

The Patriots, by signing Branch to 1a type money are risking Branch getting injured or returning to the 43- 57 catches he had prior to last year.

This is why a compromise is the only way a re-signing is going to happen.

 

[Miguel]

According to Joyner, Givens ranked 38th in TYPCA - Total Yards Per Catchable Attempt (Branch ranked 28th). That's unworthy of the deal he got in Tennessee.

But that does not show that Givens was/is not a good receiver which was/is PonyExpress' contention.

 

[Miguel]

List the top-10 WRs in the NFL today.

My Top 10
Holt
Steve Smith
Owens
Randy Moss
Wayne
Chad Johnson
Fitzgerald
Harrison
Andre Johnson
Hines Ward

Also considered:
Santana Moss

In my Top 15
Darrell Jackson
Boldin
Mason
Roy Williams

In my Top 20
Branch
Chambers
Horn
Bruce
Burress

Also considered for my Top 20
Evans
Coles
TJ Housz
Edwards
Walker

 

[Brady-To-Branch]

My top-10 WRs...

Tory Holt
Santana Moss
Hines Ward
Steve Smith
Reggie Wayne
TJ Housmanzadeh
Deion Branch
Ernest Wilford
Eddie Kennison
Terry Glenn



2005 Yards Per Catch Leaders
1. Ashley Lelie -- 18.5
2. Terry Glenn -- 18.2
3. Santana Moss -- 17.7
4. Randy Moss -- 16.8
5. Ernest Wilford -- 16.6
6. Justin McCareins -- 16.6
7. Eddie Kennison -- 16.2
8. Terrell Owens -- 16.2
9. Plaxico Burress -- 16.0
10. Joey Galloway -- 15.5
11. Lee Evans -- 15.5
12. Brandon Lloyd -- 15.3
13. Roy Williams -- 15.3
14. Steve Smith -- 15.2
15. Chad Johnson -- 14.8


2005 TYPCA Leaders
1. Santana Moss -- 11.4
2. Steve Smith -- 10.7
3. Eddie Kennison -- 10.7
4. Ernest Wilford -- 10.0
5. Terry Glenn -- 9.7
6. Torry Holt -- 9.6
7. Chad Johnson -- 9.6
8. Eric Parker -- 9.6
9. Donald Driver -- 9.4
10. Ashley Lelie -- 9.3
11. Joey Galloway -- 9.3
12. Marvin Harrison -- 9.2
13. Hines Ward -- 9.2
14. Joe Jurevicius -- 9.1
15. Kevin Curtis -- 9.1

 

[CrazyDave]

i'd like to chime in on this one. While i have no #'s to back it up, I'd say Branch is pretty damn good. I think he is undervalued by many on this board.
He most certainly IS an impact player.
He is what he is, let's not forget what it is that he is.
He is pretty damn good.
Crazy money good? Maybe not, but don't kid yourselves into thinking he's an "average" type receiver. He is not.

Rant over, thank you.

 

[14thDragon]

i'd like to chime in on this one. While i have no #'s to back it up, I'd say Branch is pretty damn good. I think he is undervalued by many on this board.
He most certainly IS an impact player.
He is what he is, let's not forget what it is that he is.
He is pretty damn good.
Crazy money good? Maybe not, but don't kid yourselves into thinking he's an "average" type receiver. He is not.

Rant over, thank you.

I would say most of us would put Branch somewhere in the top 20 of receivers. Some think a bit higher (top 10) some lower (top 30) but I would go in the top 20 as average. Considering that every team has at least 4 WR that means there are ~128 WR in the leauge. Average then would be in 40-70th rate WR in the leauge. Meaning that you would be about a 2 to a 3 reciever on most teams.

Branch being placed in the top 20 does not mean he is an average player, just not elite player. On many teams he would be a 1B or high 2 reciever. Good, but not great. He is not going to command a double team if say a Harrison, Owens, C. Johnson, R. Moss, Bolden is on the field.

 

[Johnny Z]

Everybody has stats they like. One of my favorites is 1st-down catches on 3rd downs. To me, that is an indicator of a clutch player:

1. Donald Driver - 26
2. Santana Moss - 25
3. Steve Smith - 24
4. Anquan Boldin - 23
5t. Plexsico - 22
5t. Jimmy Smith - 22
7t. Larry Fitzgerald - 21
7t. Joey Galloway - 21
9t. Deion Branch - 20
9t. Antonio Bryant - 20
9t. Jerry Porter - 20


Bryant and Branch are the least targeted guys on that list.

 

[5 Rings for Brady!!]

This whole 'spread offense' excuse gets way overdone. Brady states very clearly that he looks for Branch first on every single play that is intended for a wide-out.

Brady only 'spreads' the ball when Branch is covered, or perhaps somebody else is really, really open.

Branch's numbers reflect very accurately how good he is. Lots of other wide recievers would have at least 1,000 yard seasons as Brady's first and favorite 'read', when you consider Brady LED THE LEAGUE in yards last year.

Bioli knows EXACTLY what Branch is worth to the Pats, not Joyner, or you or me or Felger. Branch will not get a penny more than his worth to the Pats. Most likely he will cave in to a more realistic deal, or he will play for $1 million this year. His choice!

Yes, he will get way overpaid in free agency if he manages to break 1,000 yards in one of the most pass happy offenses in the NFL.

Let Branch's performance speak for itself, without saying what could have been if he played for the Cardinals, or where-ever else. His value to the Pats is only based on how far he goes within our offense.

 

[fgssand]

It cannot happen now....

I do not think this deal will get done now, unless Deion comes into camp, on time and is very quiet. He sent his message, now he needs to shut up.

The problem he has created is , rather than wait for Beoli to negotiate with him, he chose to challenge them. No way can they give in or there will be an endless parade of hold outs facing them. Is Branch that much more important than Samuels, Koppen, Graham etc? What about the next group for next year that becomes free in 2008? Is the way to a new contract to hold out now?

I really think he has forced himself to play for 1MM this year and then Patriots will deal with him after the season. Maybe we even franchise him one time, if it makes financial sense to do so.

I love Deion - but I think he received some really bad advice. Biting the hand that feeds is not wise, there had to have been a better way. He is not Richard Seymour or Tom Brady (TB never got that far of course).

How can the Patriots pay him now and not create a basic ongoing hold out situation?

 

[JoeSixPat]

This whole 'spread offense' excuse gets way overdone. Brady states very clearly that he looks for Branch first on every single play that is intended for a wide-out.

Brady only 'spreads' the ball when Branch is covered, or perhaps somebody else is really, really open.

Branch's numbers reflect very accurately how good he is. Lots of other wide recievers would have at least 1,000 yard seasons as Brady's first and favorite 'read', when you consider Brady LED THE LEAGUE in yards last year.

Bioli knows EXACTLY what Branch is worth to the Pats, not Joyner, or you or me or Felger. Branch will not get a penny more than his worth to the Pats. Most likely he will cave in to a more realistic deal, or he will play for $1 million this year. His choice!

Yes, he will get way overpaid in free agency if he manages to break 1,000 yards in one of the most pass happy offenses in the NFL.

Let Branch's performance speak for itself, without saying what could have been if he played for the Cardinals, or where-ever else. His value to the Pats is only based on how far he goes within our offense.

If the "spread the ball out" argument is overstated, then that IMO means that Branch is OVER-rated.

When I compare Branch with top tier WRs I see a drop off in receptions, which I attribute to a Patriots inclination to spread the ball around to RBs, TE - even LBs!

Branch only has one season with #1 WR numbers and if he's getting as many balls thrown his way as WRs pulling in 95 catches, then there's an issue that I'm sure the Patriots will bring up in negotiations.

No one here DOESN'T like Branch - its really just a question of finding a mutually agreeable number that blends actual accomplishment as well as potential ... balancing the potential for the 43-57 receptions in 2003-2004 and the numbers put up last year, not to mention the potential for injury should we re-up him early.

It's not a simple question - after all, is anyone lamenting the fact that even with his oustanding 90-100 reception seasons in 2001/2002, we don't currently have Troy Brown in the midst of a long-term #1 WR salary contract?

 

[5 Rings for Brady!!]

The way Brady describes his 'reads' makes me think that he would normally pass the ball to Branch first, because Brady looks for Branch first on every play. Brady talks like he loves to play with Branch and gets him the ball first whenever it is a good idea. That is why I think Branch owns his stats.

Clearly the Pats wanted Mason to come in and be their number #1 wideout, which is why they actually SET THE MARKET for him and gave him the best offer. When was the last time the Pats EVER did that?

 

[JoeSixPat]

The way Brady describes his 'reads' makes me think that he would normally pass the ball to Branch first, because Brady looks for Branch first on every play. Brady talks like he loves to play with Branch and gets him the ball first whenever it is a good idea. That is why I think Branch owns his stats.

Clearly the Pats wanted Mason to come in and be their number #1 wideout, which is why they actually SET THE MARKET for him and gave him the best offer. When was the last time the Pats EVER did that?

Actually the Mason case is interesting because it shows that the Patriots are willing to make the highest offer for a player - IF they feel that player has proven value and will be worth the money.

With the benefit of hindsight Mason was worth the offer - which should make everyone feel good that whatever the offer to Branch - it will be pretty close to his actual value.

The Wildcard in all this is that we do not know what the alternatives to Branch are next year in FA. And while there are players worth watching, I don't think the Pats know the answer to that question either.

 

[Pats726]

The Wildcard in all this is that we do not know what the alternatives to Branch are next year in FA. And while there are players worth watching, I don't think the Pats know the answer to that question either.

That is the real wildcard..that really no one knows about. Who else will be a FA next year and will there be a lot of money like this year, or less..more dried up?? And even more iportnat is the risk he is taking by having an off year and/or injuries?? It's all well and good to want fee agency, but that pot might be a lot smaller if he's injured. It is good to know that the Pats
will be a fair amount for a true top receiver; the problem is Branch wishes to be paid like one and falls short of that top echelon. And this in no way is downing his talent either. He just is not there yet..which is why a fair contract with incentives is the correct way to go. Unfortunately, I'm not sure Branch and his new agent see it that way.

 

[shakadave]

I do not think this deal will get done now, unless Deion comes into camp, on time and is very quiet. He sent his message, now he needs to shut up.

The problem he has created is , rather than wait for Beoli to negotiate with him, he chose to challenge them. No way can they give in or there will be an endless parade of hold outs facing them. Is Branch that much more important than Samuels, Koppen, Graham etc? What about the next group for next year that becomes free in 2008? Is the way to a new contract to hold out now?

How can the Patriots pay him now and not create a basic ongoing hold out situation?

Bingo! I think you're right on the money.

 

[mgteich]

I have a few thought about Branch, in addition to agreeing with JoeSixPat.

1. The comparison to Brown is a good one. Branch replaced Brown as the go-to money 3rd down slot receiver. We used to argue whether Brown was really a #1 receiver, or just the best clutch receiver in the league. Brown has always been a fan favorite.

2. Brown was never given anywhere near #1 receiver money, even when he caught almost 100 passes.

3. Branch is sometimes double-teamed, sometimes not, but is usually Brady's #1 choice. He would easily catch 100 passes if he were open more. All this talk about losing teams passing so much is off-point. It is Brady and the pats who led the league in passing yards, not the losers.

4. It doesn't much matter why Branch doesn't deserve #1 money playing in our offense. I think it is a simple fact of life.

5. I agree that Branch is better than Givens, much better, and more valuable to the pats. The fact that Givens was paid much more than he is worth to the pats won't influence what the past offer Branch.

6. If Givens were signed, I don't think there would much of an issue. The pats wouldn't even be tempted to overpay Branch, now or at the end of the season. I think that now they are tempted to overpay a bit.

7. Branch's injury issues are a serious impediment to the pats overpaying him.

8. I don't think that anything will get done this off-season. I suspect that there is a large gulf between what Branch is worth to the pats and what he might be worth to others after the season.

As was said, we would all like Branch to stay. We had this discussion last year, about Givens. What is substantantly different now?

If the "spread the ball out" argument is overstated, then that IMO means that Branch is OVER-rated.

When I compare Branch with top tier WRs I see a drop off in receptions, which I attribute to a Patriots inclination to spread the ball around to RBs, TE - even LBs!

Branch only has one season with #1 WR numbers and if he's getting as many balls thrown his way as WRs pulling in 95 catches, then there's an issue that I'm sure the Patriots will bring up in negotiations.

No one here DOESN'T like Branch - its really just a question of finding a mutually agreeable number that blends actual accomplishment as well as potential ... balancing the potential for the 43-57 receptions in 2003-2004 and the numbers put up last year, not to mention the potential for injury should we re-up him early.

It's not a simple question - after all, is anyone lamenting the fact that even with his oustanding 90-100 reception seasons in 2001/2002, we don't currently have Troy Brown in the midst of a long-term #1 WR salary contract?

 

[dhamz]

I don't think Branch is top 10 in the league but there is no denying that the way the Pats run their offense lowers his numbers.

They are a gameplan offense. They like to change from week to week to take advantage of what their opponent has trouble handling.

If they did what other teams did and went into games with the intention of getting Deion the ball X number of times his numbers would be better. They still wouldn't be TO numbers but they would be better.

I'd love to see him stay long term. He plays his role and he doesn't whine about not getting enough touches. That is rare in a WR these days. You usually get guys like Chad Johnson who is fighting coaches in the locker room and proving he cared more about getting catches than beating the Steelers in the playoffs.

One other thing in favor of those who say he is top 10, is there any WR in the game with his playoff resume? There certainly aren't 10 guys better. In 8 playoff games he has 41 catches for 629 yards.

With all that, I still wouldn't pay him huge $.

 

[JoeSixPat]

As was said, we would all like Branch to stay. We had this discussion last year, about Givens. What is substantantly different now?

I think the Patriots, if they HAD to choose a player to overpay (and supply and demand of #1 WRs might necessitate that) would choose to overpay Branch over Givens everytime.

But I'm beginning to feel like a deal won't get done this off season either.

Branch is acting like a guy living a "show me the money" mentality.

I'd probably be acting the same way coming off a rookie contract with pending FA being the first - and possibly last - good opportunity to cash in on my talent.

Its kindof like that show Deal/No Deal with the player weighing the risk/reward of playing out his contract counting on an excellent last season and avoiding injury to REALLY cash in big, or taking the amount the "banker" will offer now to get him out of the "game" and waive free agency for the lower, sure thing amount.

My gut tells me that Branch is going to opt for the "No Deal" option, and risk injury and a sub-par season for a HUGE payout from some desparate team in Free Agency.

 

[Johnny Z]

If you look at ball dispersal, you have three groups:


Z and X receivers

TE's and RB's

WR substitutes for TE's and RB's


You can bet money that the Patriots are hitting each of those 1/3rd of the time because that is what drives a defense nuts.

With the cards, just over 50% of their attempts went to the Z and X WRs.

 

[JoeSixPat]

I'd say this has been a pretty good thread to hash out what Branch's value might or might not be.

Although PonyExpress and I don't agree I'm glad he started the thread for discussion purposes

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

I frankly don't get too excited over who the number 1 WR is, not with Ben Watson threatening to become the number 1 reciever this season. I did note that Pony considered Givens to not be a good receiver, but seem to recall D-Giv racking up 100 yd games when Branch was hurt in 2004. I also note that BB makes no hedge about get open and catch the ball by using get "wide" open and catch the ball. A WR who can shield the defender with his body and have a half step on him coming into the throwing lane is open to Tommy, just as much as one alone inside a 10 yd radius circle. D-Giv was good in traffic, hence his post-season TD streak. Deion is good for YAC. Frankly, you had two good players who were used to take advantage of their strengths, now we get to see who is next.