Brady's Contract

[supafly]

For those who have been doubting my "first + a mid rounder" in trade compensation (not that I really think he'll be traded), Adam Schefter claims that he talked to 5-6 GM's and front offices last week who claimed that Brady would get TWO first round picks...

One for the position and success, and one for the marketability alone.

While Schefter does not agree with that (nor do I), I think lots here have seriously underrated his trade value with their talk of 2nd or 3rd rounders. We're talking about Tom Brady here. Again, I personally don't think that he'll be going anywhere.

http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/new-...69767/thoughts-from-schefter-on-bradys-future

 

[rochrist]

Comparing the Kosar to the Brady situation is folly... and to think that they will trade Brady is idiotic. I the last three years the Brown's record with him as QB was 3-10(1990), 6-10(91) and 2-5(92).. BB did what he thought was best for the team.

#12 will remain at Foxboro until he chooses to retire, Mr. Kraft is a businessman first and an NFL owner second.. he knows that Brady is the face of his "product" and even though they will recover without Brady he will do little to damage what has been accomplished(44% increase in value last year alone)....

I'm agnostic in this, but you seriously think BB and Kraft would let this team slide down into losing territory, if that's what transpired, just to keep Tom playing here for the sake of the brand? I don't.

 

[rochrist]

Manx, i think it is impossible for us to evaluate Garrapolo at all at this time, and I think his knowledge of the Pro Game vs Brady is akin to that of a child in kindergarten compared to a Doctoral degree. I can't imagine Garrapolo reaching Brady's level of football knowledge for at least 6-7 years, if ever, and think Brady will have to really suck for an extended period of time before Belichick even considers swapping them out. A few good throws aren't going to do it.

You realize that Brady didn't have the current Brady's level of football knowledge when he took over, right?

 

[Ivan]

You realize that Brady didn't have the current Brady's level of football knowledge when he took over, right?

Of course he didn't, but he sat on the bench for a year and learned the offense to a point where he became a getter option for them than Bledsoe because he actually understood it better than him. That isn't going to happen this time.

 

[PATS16N0]

If God forbid Brady had to miss one game due to minor injury, and JAG had to play an entire game against an elite defense, this Brady trade talk would come to a screeching halt immediately.

 

[JoeSixPat]

Can't speak for anyone else but I certainly didn't directly compare Brady to Kosar, I merely used Kosar to point out that being a "face of the franchise" and fan favourite alone would not prevent BB trading Brady.

The point of the thread is that the structure of Brady's contract makes it difficult to get rid of him at certain points in the future without eating a huge chunk of dead money. This makes stories like the ones posted by Mortensen and Silver more difficult to believe. Silver is speculating they could split after this season, but that's when a larger chunk of money becomes guaranteed and it's significantly more difficult to absorb the hit.

I don't think anyone is advocating for trading Brady. Well okay, that's not true. But most of those people have been pretty quiet since the Bengals game. And the Kosar comparison was silly. It's funny that no one brought up the more obvious example of BB sacking a popular QB, Drew Bledsoe.

Don't forget we gave Drew a record 10-year, $103M deal in the spring before he got injured and eventually replaced by a 2nd-year 6th-rounder out of Michigan, then traded him to a division rival.

I don't think we will trade Brady, but after Drew, you can't be 100% sure of anything.

Fair enough - I don't want to take anyone out of context.

So what some are saying is that IF between now and the trading deadline on October 28th :

1.) Brady played as bad as the other "face of the franchise" traded under Belichick - Bernie Kosar
2.) Or got injured and was replaced by Garoppolo who, in a 2 week period, demonstrated unequivocally that HE and not Brady was the better QB for now and the future

That Belichick would trade him in 2 weeks because his cap hit escalates after that?

This is the discussion that's happening here?

Well, yes I guess you're right that we can't be 100% sure of anything. Though, I need to check my stats, I seem to recall Brady playing nearly an entire season AND winning the Super Bowl BEFORE they traded Bledsoe - but that's probably a minor point to most.

But I still get a sense that they might like to see Garoppolo for MORE than 2 games before dumping Brady

If anyone is taking actual bets I'd be happy to put my money on Brady NOT being traded by October 28th

 

[ctpatsfan77]

That Belichick would trade him in 2 weeks because his cap hit escalates after that?

I have not read this whole thread closely, but this is simply not true unless Brady is cut; any remaining salary will disappear off the cap if he is traded. [FWIW, as a reminder, I don't see it happening this offseason, but I could see something happening before 2016 or 2017.]

 

[convertedpatsfan]

Fair enough - I don't want to take anyone out of context.

So what some are saying is that IF between now and the trading deadline on October 28th :

1.) Brady played as bad as the other "face of the franchise" traded under Belichick - Bernie Kosar
2.) Or got injured and was replaced by Garoppolo who, in a 2 week period, demonstrated unequivocally that HE and not Brady was the better QB for now and the future

That Belichick would trade him in 2 weeks because his cap hit escalates after that?

This is the discussion that's happening here?

Well, yes I guess you're right that we can't be 100% sure of anything. Though, I need to check my stats, I seem to recall Brady playing nearly an entire season AND winning the Super Bowl BEFORE they traded Bledsoe - but that's probably a minor point to most.

But I still get a sense that they might like to see Garoppolo for MORE than 2 games before dumping Brady

If anyone is taking actual bets I'd be happy to put my money on Brady NOT being traded by October 28th

I guess. Then again, some people said we should have kept Cassell over Brady too so who really gives a **** what people are saying?

You're right about Drew's situation and Brady had taken over for quite some time, although part of that was the injury and part of that was BB deciding to let Brady keep the starter's job after Drew's injury.

And I agree with you, but I totally didn't see the Seymour or Mankins deals coming either. BB is big on maximizing value and trading a guy a year early instead of a year late so I don't think it's going to happen, but I wouldn't bet the house on it either.

 

[Brady6]

I'm agnostic in this, but you seriously think BB and Kraft would let this team slide down into losing territory, if that's what transpired, just to keep Tom playing here for the sake of the brand? I don't.

I do not think they would have to Brady would retire as he said; when he sucks he will retire. At this point and time Tom Brady is still significantly better than Jimmy Garopollo is, it is not even close and anyone who suggests otherwise is crazy. Garopollo has shown promise, nothing more.

What I do not get is how you and others assert that Belichick would move on from Brady while stating the NFL is a business, yet in the same breath, you suggest they should not care about their brand. Well I thought the NFL was a business.

 

[Halifax_Pats_Fan]

I get the numbers and the reasoning for and against, but I am gonna go ahead and just enjoy him while he is on our team and let management make whatever decisions they will make..just looking forward to him playing this Sunday in Buffalo over an delicious Thanksgiving fall meal...

 

[Marinlik]

I do not think they would have to Brady would retire as he said; when he sucks he will retire. At this point and time Tom Brady is still significantly better than Jimmy Garopollo is, it is not even close and anyone who suggests otherwise is crazy. Garopollo has shown promise, nothing more.

What I do not get is how you and others assert that Belichick would move on from Brady while stating the NFL is a business, yet in the same breath, you suggest they should not care about their brand. Well I thought the NFL was a business.

If Brady at one point is not the best option for us(that will happen) then the best business decision long term will be to move on. To hang on to Brady when he is not our best option would be a bad decision. The day that Brady is not the best option for us haven't come yet. But when it comes I will be disappointed in the team if they do not go with the best player, instead of the emotional choice.

 

[Brady6]

If Brady at one point is not the best option for us(that will happen) then the best business decision long term will be to move on. To hang on to Brady when he is not our best option would be a bad decision. The day that Brady is not the best option for us haven't come yet. But when it comes I will be disappointed in the team if they do not go with the best player, instead of the emotional choice.

I am in the minority but I am just not someone who thinks Garopollo is the answer at QB. Either way the rest of the team needs a lot of work if they plan to move on from Brady because it is not a great roster without Brady.

Also I disagree that there will come a day when he is not the best option, Brady seems very in tune with reality and I think he will play until he cannot play at an elite level not until he is getting dragged off a football field. Even if Garopollo is a good QB and I am wrong he is very far from being an elite QB, and Brady is very far from not being not being an elite QB.

James White is the only RB under contract next season. The OL has Connolly and Cannon entering UFA after the season, and Solder and Wendell entering UFA in 2016. Amendola is likely gone after the season, and who knows what the future holds for Dobson. Add Gronkowski’s injury concerns to that mix and it is not exactly the ideal offense to throw a young QB into.

 

[SVN]

http://www.csnne.com/blog/patriots-talk/pats-cap-space-brady-trade-insurance

 

[Miguel]

http://www.csnne.com/blog/patriots-talk/pats-cap-space-brady-trade-insurance

Tom used http://www.nflplayers.com/reports/RunPublicReport.aspx?report=top51 to get his cap space. That site has not yet reflected the expiration of the Top 51 rule. I believe that the Pats have about 9.8 million in cap space.

Since the Pats have so many players with NLTBE 46-man active roster bonuses it is not likely that the Patriots will end the year with their current cap space.

See http://www.patsfans.com/salary-cap/?p=814
http://www.patsfans.com/salary-cap/?p=766

 

[Miguel]

In 2008/2009 I simply ignored the Trade Brady thread.
Now that I am on Twitter and have a blog feel compelled to compose a blog post about Brady even though I think that there is no chance that Brady will be cut or traded this year or next.

 

[SVN]

Tom used http://www.nflplayers.com/reports/RunPublicReport.aspx?report=top51 to get his cap space. That site has not yet reflected the expiration of the Top 51 rule. I believe that the Pats have about 9.8 million in cap space.

Since the Pats have so many players with NLTBE 46-man active roster bonuses it is not likely that the Patriots will end the year with their current cap space.

See http://www.patsfans.com/salary-cap/?p=814
http://www.patsfans.com/salary-cap/?p=766

Maybe you can impart your wisdom to tom curran.

 

[Miguel]

Tom follows me on Twitter so I am sure that he will read my blog.

 

[raduray]

I think this version of Miguel's table might help the more visual folks see what's going on.

Green numbers represent money paid to Brady while he's still on the team. Red numbers represent signing bonus only. Purple numbers represent signing bonus + salary.

8% of guys, including me, are red green color blind. Just saying...

 

[Miguel]

http://www.patsfans.com/salary-cap/?p=836 is my blog post. Hope that you find it informative and helpful.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Of course he didn't, but he sat on the bench for a year and learned the offense to a point where he became a getter option for them than Bledsoe because he actually understood it better than him. That isn't going to happen this time.

I think what people really undersell with Kosar and Bledsoe is that Belichick moved on because he thought the young guy behind him was a better option *at that time*. Not potentially a better option three years later.

Hell, there were a fair few posters around here who wanted Brady traded after 2008, because they figured that Cassel had more prime years left. The lesson? When you have the GOAT, even if he's near the end of his career he still likely has more years of upper-tier production in him than the unproven guy behind him.

If/when Belichick moves on from Brady, I believe that it'll be because he thinks the guy behind him is at least as good as he is, maybe better.