Brady vs Manning Debate - The Final Nail in the Coffin

Discussion in ' - Patriots Fan Forum' started by ATippett56, Nov 4, 2006.

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  1. ATippett56

    ATippett56 Pro Bowl Player

    Waterboarding the data in our Gridiron Gitmo

    Cold, Hard Football Facts for November 3, 2006

    By Cold, Hard Football Facts publisher Kerry J. Byrne

    Few stories have ever whipped the militant inhabitants of Planet Pigskin into a frothy lather quite like our Complete & Unabridged Guide to Why Tom Brady is Better than Peyton Manning.

    Nearly two years after Volume I of the Guide was published, and a year after we delivered an updated Volume II, the e-mails about it continue to trickle in, even though it’s buried in the dark, chilly depths of the Cold, Hard Football Facts archives.

    Some write to say it’s the greatest piece of analysis they’ve ever read.

    Others write to make foolish, factless and angry efforts to refute it, like colorblind village idiots screaming that the sky is brown.

    But there is one thing we never covered in Vol. I or II of the Guide, or in an abridged version we issued last year: Manning plays most of his games in a dome, while Brady plays most of his games outdoors and in cold-weather cities.

    We didn’t think it needed to be addressed. Brady is clearly the better quarterback even without taking the dome issue into consideration.

    The trolls disagreed. We’ve received tons of e-mails over the past year and a half from readers asking us to look at the discrepancy between outdoor and indoor football.

    In our effort to serve and to protect Planet Pigskin, we waterboarded all the indoor and outdoor data this week in our Gridiron Gitmo.

    And what we found was shocking. SHOCKING! Are you ready?

    Brady has a better passer rating than Manning in domes …

    … and outdoors!

    Here’s how the two quarterbacks stack up when we compare them on level playing fields:

    Games Comp. Att. Pct. Yards YPA TDs INTs Rating
    Brady 11* 228 342 66.7 2,727 8.0 23 8 103.5
    Manning 82 1,787 2,689 66.5 22,025 8.2 175 73 102.0

    * Includes a relief effort at Detroit in 2000, the only non-start among all these games for either quarterback

    Games Comp. Att. Pct. Yards YPA TDs INTs Rating
    Brady 87 1,709 2,805 60.9 19,399 6.9 129 67 87.0
    Manning 62 1,362 2,187 62.3 15,591 7.1 99 67 86.0

    The efficiency numbers – completion percentage, yards per attempt, passer rating – are remarkably close. At the end of the day, Brady has a slightly better passer rating, mostly by virtue of his superior TD-INT ratio indoors and outdoors.

    In either instance, as you’ll see below, both quarterbacks put up passing numbers at a dizzying, historic rate, whether they’re playing indoors or out.

    But Manning has played just 43 percent (62 of 144) of his games outdoors. Brady has played 89 percent of his games outdoors (87 of 98). Given a level – and equally cozy – playing field, the evidence at hand indicates that it’s Brady who would have the gaudier passing stats.

    By the way, for proof that it’s easier to move the ball in domes than outdoors, take a look at the five most prolific NFL offenses of the Super Bowl Era:

    1998 Vikings (34.7 PPG)
    1983 Redskins (33.8 PPG)
    2000 Rams (33.7 PPG)
    1999 Rams (32.9 PPG)
    2004 Colts (32.6 PPG)

    You might notice that four of the five teams – all but the Redskins – played indoors. Considering the fact that just six teams play regularly in domes (an additional two retractable-dome arenas have entered the NFL since 2002), it’s a highly disproportionate rate of success.
  2. 5 Rings for Brady!!

    5 Rings for Brady!! In the Starting Line-Up

    Nice find. It is always funny how all the actual evidence favors Brady so strongly. From playing without star players, to doing better in the elements, to winning important games. The beat goes on.
  3. TomBrady'sGoat

    TomBrady'sGoat 2nd Team Getting Their First Start

    i should bookmark the Complete & Unabridged Guide to Why Tom Brady is Better than Peyton Manning for the next time someone tries to pull the "Tom Brady is a good qb in a great system crap."
  4. ATippett56

    ATippett56 Pro Bowl Player

    Cold Hard Football Facts maybe the best free site on the internet for analytical information on the NFL.
  5. workhorse

    workhorse Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job

    Obviously both guys are great QBs and their numbers are really close. The one thing that they failed to mention was the teams that each started with were not equal. The Pats were 8-8 when Brady was drafted and went 5-11 his rookie year, while Manning stepped in as a rookie on a 3-13 team. Brady's first season as QB the Pats were 11-5 and on their way to the Super Bowl, making that 2000 season look like a fluke. Peyton's rookie season is the only year that he had more picks (28) than TDs (26). His second season he cut the picks to 15 while still having 26 TDs. The Colts were 3-13 in Peyton's first year and 13-3 in his second. I know most here either don't care or while write this off as a Colts' fan making an excuse, but it's still stands that Peyton started as a rookie on a much worse team than Brady stepped into with the Pats.
  6. ATippett56

    ATippett56 Pro Bowl Player

    Obviously you did not read the entire article:

    The talent
    The advantage of accompanying offensive talent that Manning enjoys over Brady is evident when we look at the Pro Bowlers each quarterback has played with.

    Manning has played with 14 Pro Bowlers in his eight years in the league, including Marvin Harrison (7), Edgerrin James (4), Marshall Faulk (1), Ken Dilger (1) and Jeff Saturday (1).

    Brady has played with two Pro Bowlers: Troy Brown in 2001 and Corey Dillon in 2004.

    That’s it.
  7. workhorse

    workhorse Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job

    You must not have read my post. The team that Manning started with was 3-13 and not stocked with pro-bowlers. Faulk was the only one on the roster that had been to a Pro Bowl and that was in 95. Manning got there in 98. Marvin went to his first in 99, his fourth year in the league and second with Manning. Edge came a year after Peyton and went to his first Pro Bowl in 2000. Dilger went in 2001. Saturday was named to the Pro Bowl last season. So my point still stands that Manning started with a worse team than Brady did. Ya, Peyton may have had more Pro Bowlers since then, but would you rather Brady have more Pro Bowlers or the Patriots' defense?
  8. ATippett56

    ATippett56 Pro Bowl Player

    Excuses and more excuses from the Colts entourage.

    Meanwhile, the New England Patriots finished the 2000 NFL season 5-11 and started the 2001 NFL season 0-2. After ten games into the 2001 NFL season, the New England Patriots were only 5-5.
  9. Patriot Missile

    Patriot Missile Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

    #12 Jersey

    The two best QB's in the league. One has a slightly more sharper mind. The other one is slightly more gifted athletically. I'd take either one if I was starting a team today. But if given a choice I would go with Brady because he just seems to be more clutch when it count's.

    How can this be the final nail in the coffin when both QB's are in their prime?
  10. Drewwho

    Drewwho Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job

    Not sure if I am getting your logic...Brady's first start came in a 0-3 start and the previous year (Belichick's first year) the Pats were 5-11So, Brady doesn't get credit for making the Pats a better team?

    What does the 8-8 team have to do with Brady? Nothing! The team changed completely in 2000 when Belichick became coach.
  11. ATippett56

    ATippett56 Pro Bowl Player

  12. workhorse

    workhorse Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job

    I was just pointing out that the team was in decent shape already when he was drafted. Sure he gets some of the credit, but I think he was more of a piece in the puzzle at that point than a star like he is today.
  13. ATippett56

    ATippett56 Pro Bowl Player

    More bull from the Colts entourage. That does not explain the New England Patriots 5-11 season in 2000 nor the 0-2 start during the 2001 season. How is 5-13 from the start of the 2000 NFL season described as "decent shape"? Colts fans are simply delusional.
  14. ATippett56

    ATippett56 Pro Bowl Player

    The argument, as presented by the Cold Hard Football Facts, proves that Brady is the better quarterback and his statistics would be equally impressive if he played a majority of his games in dome stadiums.
  15. workhorse

    workhorse Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job

    It's better than the 6-26 shape of the Colts.
  16. ATippett56

    ATippett56 Pro Bowl Player

    That does not explain this fact:

    Brady plays better head-to-head
    Manning and Brady have faced each other seven times in the past. There’s no doubt Brady has gotten the better of the head-to-head matchup. His Patriots are 6-1 in those seven games, including a 2-0 mark in the playoffs. Brady has clearly outshined Manning:

    Brady: 143 for 213 (67.1%), 1,587 yards, 7.5 YPA, 13 TDs, 4 INTs, 101.6 rating
    Manning: 165 for 271 (60.9%), 1,863 yards, 6.9 YPA, 12 TDs, 11 INTs, 79.3 rating

    Especially considering in 2001 that Brady was a first year starter while Manning was a fourth year starter.
  17. workhorse

    workhorse Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job

    The arguement from Cold Hard Football Facts (a New England favored site) points out only that the two QBs are very close and they say the QB rating edge goes to Brady. You can only say that Brady stats would be better if a majority of his games were in a dome if football were a sterile, scientific game. But since they play the games with players and not with scientific formulas, you would just be guessing. It's odd though that many around here say that it's the Colts' fans that are caught up in stats. CHFF had to break the stats up like that to get Brady ahead on Manning in QB ratings since overall Manning has a career QB rating of 94.3 and Brady is at 88.8.
  18. ATippett56

    ATippett56 Pro Bowl Player

    Maybe if Peyton Manning would lose that Dan Marino mentality (we ain't goin' unless we're throwin'), then the Colts would win the Super Bowl.
  19. workhorse

    workhorse Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job

    Now you are comparing apples and oranges. I was pointing out the quality of teams when each QB began playing for them, not how the have done since then or head to head. Those are totally different things.
  20. ATippett56

    ATippett56 Pro Bowl Player

    Let's compare the quality of offenses in 2001:

    Marvin Harrison, WR - 1996 first round draft pick
    Tarik Glenn, OT - 1997 first round draft pick
    Peyton Manning, QB - 1998 first round draft pick
    Edgerrin James, RB - 1999 first round draft pick
    Reggie Wayne, WR - 2001 first round draft pick

    How many first round draft picks were playing for the New England Patriots offense in 2001?
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