Brady hit once every 8.5 attempts since mid 07

Discussion in 'NFL Football Forum' started by PatsFanSince74, Sep 9, 2009.

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  1. PatsFanSince74

    PatsFanSince74 Supporter Supporter

    This is an interesting article (link below), using stats to make a point that has been made without stats often both in the media and here. What's your take on it? We've been spending a lot of time here, rightly so, on the Seymour trade, but TB is the man.

    Referring to the games beginning with the Eagles game in 2007 up to and including the hit in the Chiefs game last year, the article observes “He’s getting sacked about once every 20 attempts.... That’s borderline for safety. And then he’s been hit another 25 or 30 times. He’s getting significant contact once every 8.5 times he drops back. That can’t continue."

    The article suggests that this isn't on the O line, but rather on how teams have decided to defense the Pats. Whatever the cause, the odds of injury, whether minor (like the Haynesworth hit) or major (like the knee), go up. Suggests to me that the running game and backfield passes will become more important this year.

    (BTW. If someone disagrees with the articles' stats, please give us a source that can help us refute them rather than just saying "they're wrong.")

    Curran: Brady?s back ? how do Pats keep it that way? - NFL-
  2. Box_O_Rocks

    Box_O_Rocks Supporter Supporter

    Wow, the end of that article was so depressing. We're dooooomed. :cool:
  3. Patspsycho

    Patspsycho Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

    I read this article too and thought it brought up a valid point.

    There was a thread somewhere in here that talked about how we would defend against an increased number of blitzes as teams try to go after what they perceive to be the weakness in the Pats offense, collapsing the pocket.

    But the blitz is what Brady feeds on, so that is not really the issue here. The issue here is that I believe they will focus on trying to collapse the pocket asap, by sending pressure up the middle.

    It will be interesting to see how the Patriots counter this, perhaps with more max protect sets.
  4. Jimke

    Jimke In the Starting Line-Up

    This is part of the reason Baker was signed and Matthews acquired

    in a trade.
  5. MoLewisrocks

    MoLewisrocks Supporter Supporter

    That was a tremendously insightful piece. Who says you can't get anything meaningful out of BB and this team. And stats aside he does get hit too much and it does have to stop if he's gonna be here for another 10 years (or so...). Glad BB realizes that. And from some of his recent comments it would appear Tommy realizes that too. Now all that's left is to figure out the best way to accomplish that while still winning games.
  6. Box_O_Rocks

    Box_O_Rocks Supporter Supporter

    And why there was a 100% turnover of interior OL reserves, and may be why there are so many on the roster to start the season.
  7. Rob0729

    Rob0729 Supporter Supporter

    #12 Jersey

    A part of the reason Brady gets hit so much is because of Brady. Brady is willing to sacrifice himself to hold onto the ball for an extra second or two to allow the receiver get open. There are many times he holds onto the ball forever with great protection, but even great protection can work so long.

    It is part of what makes Brady great, but there is a risk to it.
  8. patsfan13

    patsfan13 Hall of Fame Poster Supporter

    Also liked the comments by BB about Brady, look at their prep.

    No wonder Daniels being around TFB wasn't thrilled by Cutler's attitude.
  9. patchick

    patchick Moderatrix Staff Member Supporter

    #50 Jersey

    I don't understand how an article can just toss out stats like those without giving you league averages, or at least comparisons to other elite QBs, to compare with. Without any context, I have absolutely no idea how to interpret those numbers.
  10. Box_O_Rocks

    Box_O_Rocks Supporter Supporter

    Nitpicker, this isn't about stats, it's about horsepower, deadhorsepower. :snob:
  11. DaBruinz

    DaBruinz Pats, B's, Sox Supporter

    #50 Jersey

    How can one refute stats (hits taken by a QB) that aren't even official? They do not definie what a HIT is. The ESPN article that Maverick used to erroneously lambaste McDaniels, ignored sacks and didn't define what a hit was considered either.

    While Curran and Kirwin mention the 19 sacks in those 10 games, what they don't mention is that Neal wasn't playing for in 4 of those games and in 2 more, he played less than half the game. One of the games that he played less than half was the SB and the Pats got schooled because they didn't recognize the stunts or couldn't break free to pick up the stunting DE.

    Any article that hangs its hat on stats it refuses to define is not an article worth the Cyberspace its inhabiting.

    In all honesty, Brady gets hit too much after he's gotten rid of the ball and the Refs let it go because he just bounces back up ususally. There really needs to be a better point of emphasis on hitting the QB late because it will cost this league QBs.

    Also, it should be noted that Curran and Kirwan erroneously attribute the increase in the blitzing of Brady to Jim Johnson. What they fail to remember is that Johnson actually attributed it to Romeo Crennel and the Browns.
  12. Rob0729

    Rob0729 Supporter Supporter

    #12 Jersey

    I can endorse this post as a valid rebuttal.
  13. patchick

    patchick Moderatrix Staff Member Supporter

    #50 Jersey

    Reality check time. Last year:

    - Superbowl-winning QB Ben Roethlisberger was sacked once in every 10 attempts.

    - #1-rated QB Philip Rivers, once in every 19 attempts.

    - Breakthrough QB of the year Aaron Rodgers, once in every 16 attempts.

    In fact, only 6 starting QBs in the league were sacked LESS than once in every 20 attempts.

    IOW, Brady's numbers are perfectly normal. Nothing to see here.
  14. borg

    borg In the Starting Line-Up

    Argue the presentation of material if you want, but my eyes tell me that since Moss was added to the roster, Brady and Cassel had been willing to sit in the pocket longer waiting for Moss to free up. Before Moss, the passing attack was based on short and intermediate routes...
    My eyes also tell me that the Pats passing attack is most disrupted when teams rush the center of the OLine, collapse the pocket, and mess up Brady's stride forward. When Brady steps into the pass, he is deadly....but throwing flat footed or off back foot is when Brady becomes average at best.
    In my mind, Neal is the key. When he is in the game, the line has balanced strength both in terms of run/ pass success and strength of its 5 parts. When Neal has been sidelined, I felt that teams were more inclined to attack up the middle.
    Bottomline...keep Brady clean and this team wins big
  15. Box_O_Rocks

    Box_O_Rocks Supporter Supporter

    We're dooommmed. [​IMG]
  16. BPF

    BPF In the Starting Line-Up

    Agreed on Baker and Matthews -- they'll help the OT's.

    QB gets hit, when you spread the field. The league is a pass happy spread the field to create mismatches game now and the way to attack it on D is to pressure the passer.
    Last edited: Sep 9, 2009
  17. PatsFanSince74

    PatsFanSince74 Supporter Supporter

    The challenge is exacerbated by the fact that the article limits the evaluation period to a limited universe of games and includes "hits," which I don't think are formally tracked, so we have to take the word of the observer. In addition, sack stats are usually presented only for the regular season; to get reliable full season numbers we'd have to factor in the Playoffs and I just don't have the time to fire up a spreadsheet today. But, on the assumption that the observer is reliable and looking at facts we can gather, here are a few things that we can discover.

    Looking just at 2007, since that's the period from which the article derives its data, we can compare Brady's sacks per attempt for the full season to the sacks on other elite QB's; this doesn't include hits. Any analysis like this has to acknowledge, of course, that the playcalling and style of play of QB's differs (see Ben below). I get this from

    Sacks per Attempt % (Sacks/Attempts + Sacks)

    Brady: 3.5%
    Brees: 2.4%
    Favre: 2.7%
    Payme: 3.9%
    Rivers: 4.7%
    Big Ben: 10.4%

    This suggests that, throughout the entire season, Brady was sacked roughly 46% more often than Brees, 30% more often than Favre, 11% less often than Peyton, 27% less often than Rivers and a lot less often than Roethlisberger.

    But, the article talks about the latter part of the season and the playoffs. So, if we look at the first ten games, Brady was sacked just 2.9% of the time; for the last six games (Philly on as the article argues), Brady was sacked 4.4% of the time, or more than 50% more often than in the beginning of the season. When we look at the Playoffs, he was sacked 6.8% of the time, or 230% more often than in the first six games of the season and nearly twice as often as in the entire regular season. If we look at his sack percentage for the last six games plus the playoffs, it is 5.2%.

    Since the article is accurate in its arguments about sacks, barring the presentation of alternative data, I'll concede that it is likely also accurate in its stats on "hits" and will accept that its conclusion is valid, barring the presentation of contrary data. From the 11th game on of the 2007 season, Brady was sacked and hit more often than before and more often than other elite QB's, other than Roethlisberger, were sacked and hit on average over the season. This is probably not a good thing.
  18. PatsFanSince74

    PatsFanSince74 Supporter Supporter

    Please see my post above. That's not quite accurate.
    Last edited: Sep 9, 2009
  19. TheComeback

    TheComeback 2nd Team Getting Their First Start

    Nice article. I think the best way to counter the blitz is to make them pay for blitzing by running out of the shotgun, which we did so well last year, and running more in general. Faulk and F. Taylor are perfect for running in the shotgun.

    As we saw last year, the oline is great at run-blocking, but they need to be doing it all year. You can't just start running the ball 25 times a game halfway through the season and expect results. The more we ran last year, the better our line became at it. I hope Belichick does NOT try to repeat 2007. We were way too one-dimensional.
  20. TheComeback

    TheComeback 2nd Team Getting Their First Start

    Just wanted to note that QB hits actually are formally tracked (on You have to look at the box scores for individual games.
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